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Article
Publication date: 31 May 2013

Christopher E.S. Warburton

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of the tradeweighted US dollar from 1973 to 2011 as a result of monetary policy.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the performance of the tradeweighted US dollar from 1973 to 2011 as a result of monetary policy.

Design/methodology/approach

Relevant time series variables – the money supply, the federal funds rate, general financial conditions, national income and interest rate spread are used to investigate the impact of shocks on the US tradeweighted dollar and to explain the predictive power the variables hold over the weighted dollar. This is accomplished by using the conventional procedures of variance decomposition and Granger causality tests.

Findings

The paper finds that unexpected changes in national financial conditions, the federal funds rate and the velocity of money account for more variation in the performance of the tradeweighted US dollar than do surprises associated with the interest rate spread (the variable that tracks quantitative easing (QE), quantitative contraction (QC) and neutrality).

Practical implications

This article is unique in adding to the literary discourse by incorporating international trade and other national conditions as key indicators of the long‐term value of a tradeweighted currency and its propensity to increase national income. It provides an opportunity for further analysis of the role of QE in currency valuation when the short‐term interest rate becomes an inadequate monetary policy instrument for economic stabilization and determining the value of a currency.

Originality/value

The paper argues that the velocity of money has strong predictive power over the performance of the tradeweighted dollar and that monetary policy can help to predict changes in the financial and real sectors, but not the value of the tradeweighted dollar directly or in isolation. This is partly because the monetary policy transmission mechanism and external prices are also relevant to the weighted value of the currency over an extended period of time.

Book part
Publication date: 8 March 2011

Guonan Ma and Robert N McCauley

The renminbi (RMB) has evolved in four phases since its mid-2005 unpegging from the US dollar. After a year's transition, the RMB's effective exchange rate traded for two years…

Abstract

The renminbi (RMB) has evolved in four phases since its mid-2005 unpegging from the US dollar. After a year's transition, the RMB's effective exchange rate traded for two years within narrow bands around an appreciating trend. That is, the RMB behaved as if it were managed to strengthen gradually against trading partners’ currencies. This experiment was interrupted in mid-2008 and the RMB stabilized against a strong dollar amidst the global financial crisis. If Chinese policy were to return to effective currency stability and other East Asian countries were to pursue similar policies, regional currency stability would be enhanced. That would create more favorable conditions for an evolution towards monetary cooperation.

Article
Publication date: 7 August 2007

Ahmed El‐Masry, Omneya Abdel‐Salam and Amr Alatraby

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the exchange rate exposure of UK non‐financial companies from January 1981 to December 2001.

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Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the exchange rate exposure of UK non‐financial companies from January 1981 to December 2001.

Design/methodology/approach

The study employs different exchange rate measures and adopts an equally weighted exchange rate. The analyses are conducted at the firm level. All analyses are conducted by regressing the firm's exchange rate exposure coefficients on its size, foreign activity variables and financial hedging proxies over the whole sample period.

Findings

The findings show that a higher percentage of UK non‐financial companies are exposed to exchange rate changes than those reported in previous studies. Generally, the results provide a stronger support for the suggested equally weighted rate as an economic variable, which affects firms’ stock returns. The results also show a high proportion of positive exposure coefficients among firms with significant exchange rate exposure, indicating a higher proportion of firms benefiting from an appreciation of the pound. Finally, the results also indicate evidence that firms’ foreign operations and hedging variables affect their sensitivity to exchange rate exposure.

Practical implications

This study provides important implications for public policymakers who wish to understand links between policies that affect exchange rates and relative wealth effects.

Originality/value

The empirical results of this study should help investors to examine how common stock returns react to exchange rate fluctuations when making financial decisions, and prove useful for financial managers when measuring exposure to foreign exchange rate changes.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 33 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 June 2000

George K. Chako

Briefly reviews previous literature by the author before presenting an original 12 step system integration protocol designed to ensure the success of companies or countries in…

7259

Abstract

Briefly reviews previous literature by the author before presenting an original 12 step system integration protocol designed to ensure the success of companies or countries in their efforts to develop and market new products. Looks at the issues from different strategic levels such as corporate, international, military and economic. Presents 31 case studies, including the success of Japan in microchips to the failure of Xerox to sell its invention of the Alto personal computer 3 years before Apple: from the success in DNA and Superconductor research to the success of Sunbeam in inventing and marketing food processors: and from the daring invention and production of atomic energy for survival to the successes of sewing machine inventor Howe in co‐operating on patents to compete in markets. Includes 306 questions and answers in order to qualify concepts introduced.

Details

Asia Pacific Journal of Marketing and Logistics, vol. 12 no. 2/3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1355-5855

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 August 2007

Zubeiru Salifu, Kofi A. Osei and Charles K.D. Adjasi

The purpose of this research is to examine the foreign exchange exposure of listed companies on the Ghana Stock Exchange over the period January 1999 to December 2004. The…

3755

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this research is to examine the foreign exchange exposure of listed companies on the Ghana Stock Exchange over the period January 1999 to December 2004. The research uses different exchange rate measures namely; the cedi to US dollar, the cedi to UK pound sterling, the cedi to the euro and a tradeweighted exchange rate index to determine the degree of exposure.

Design/methodology/approach

The Jorion (1990) two‐factor model which regresses the return on a firm against changes in the exchange rate and return on the market is used to estimate the exchange rate exposure for the sample of twenty firms used in this study.

Findings

About 55 per cent of firms in the sample have a statistically significant exposure to the US dollar whilst 35 per cent are statistically exposed to the UK pound sterling. Sector specific exposure results show that the manufacturing and retail sectors are significantly exposed to the US dollar exchange rate risk. The financial sector did not show any risk exposure to any of the international currencies. The most dominant source of exchange rate risk exposure is the US dollar. Most firms are also negatively exposed to the cedi to US dollar exchange rate changes, implying that the cedi depreciation vis‐à‐vis the US dollar adversely affects firm returns.

Originality/value

The study reveals the extent of foreign exchange exposure of firms in Ghana and also adds to the limited body of empirical literature on exchange rate exposure of firms in Africa. Results of this study serve as a useful guide to corporate managers and investors on the degree of foreign exchange exposure and the need to effectively manage firm exposure.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 8 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 February 2006

Ahmed A. El‐Masry

Financial theory predicts that a change in an exchange rate should affect the value of a firm or an industry. To a large extent, past research has not supported this theory, which…

5827

Abstract

Purpose

Financial theory predicts that a change in an exchange rate should affect the value of a firm or an industry. To a large extent, past research has not supported this theory, which is surprising especially after considering the substantial exchange rate fluctuations over the three decades. This study seeks to extend previous research on the foreign exchange rate exposure of UK nonfinancial companies at the industry level over the period 1981‐2001.

Design/approach/methodology

In this study, exchange rate exposure is defined as the change in the value of the firm or industry due to the changes in exchange rates. This study differs from previous studies in that it considers the impact of the changes (actual and unexpected) in exchange rates on firms’ or industries’ stock returns. The approach employs OLS model to estimate foreign exchange rate exposure of 364 UK nonfinancial companies over the period 1981‐2001. All data are collected from the Datastream database.

Findings

The findings indicate that a higher percentage of UK industries are exposed to contemporaneous exchange rate changes than those reported in previous studies. There is also evidence of significant lagged exchange rate exposure. This lagged exchange rate exposure is consistent with findings in previous studies that may exist some market inefficiencies in incorporating exchange rate changes into the returns of firms and industries.

Research limitations/implications

Future research in the area should consider additional factors that might affect a firm's and an industry's exposure to exchange rate changes.

Practical implications

The findings of the study have interesting implications for public policy makers who wish to understand links between policies that affect exchange rates and relative wealth affects. These findings should also be of particular importance to investors who under or overweight large multinational corporations.

Originality/value

The study extends previous research on foreign exchange rate exposure of UK companies.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 32 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 February 1987

James Love

The issue of export instability exerts an enduring fascination for economists with an interest in the area of economic development. Over several decades a voluminous literature…

Abstract

The issue of export instability exerts an enduring fascination for economists with an interest in the area of economic development. Over several decades a voluminous literature has emerged embracing debates on the domestic consequences and on the causes of export instability. The purpose here is to examine these debates and an attempt is made to set out different theoretical stances, to classify and examine empirical findings, and to indicate the directions in which the debates have moved. Such a statement of a review article's purpose is, of course, incomplete without more specific delineation of the boundaries within which the general objectives are pursued. Here that delineation has three facets.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 14 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Article
Publication date: 10 February 2021

Maha Elhini and Rasha Hammam

This paper aims to examine the impact of the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases in the USA (COVIDg), the Federal Fund Rate (FFR) and the trade-weighted US dollar index (USDX) on…

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Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the impact of the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases in the USA (COVIDg), the Federal Fund Rate (FFR) and the trade-weighted US dollar index (USDX) on S&P500 index daily returns and its 11 constituent sectors’ indices for the time period between January 22, 2020, until June 30, 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model to gauge the impacts over the whole period of study, as well as over two sub-periods; first, January 22, 2020, until March 30, 2020, reflecting uncertainty in the US markets and second, from April 1, 2020, until June 30, 2020, reflecting the lockdown.

Findings

Results of the MGARCH model reveal a negative and significant relation between COVIDg and S&P500 index daily returns over the first sub-period and the whole study period in the following sectors, namely, communications, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, health, technology and materials. Yet, COVIDg showed a positive and significant relation with S&P500 index daily returns during the second time period in the following sectors, namely, communication, consumer discretionary, financial, industrial, information technology (IT) and utilities. Besides, USDX showed a negative significant effect on S&P500 index daily returns and on the daily return on each of its 11 constituent sectors over the second sub-period and the whole period. Further, FFR showed a significant effect only in the second sub-period, specifically, a negative effect on the daily return of the financial sector and a positive effect on the daily return of the technology sector index. Nevertheless, FFR had a positive significant effect on the daily return of the utilities sector index for the whole period under study.

Research limitations/implications

The impact of the crisis on the S&P500 index can be assessed only with some limitations owing to available global data and the limited time frame of the lock-down.

Practical implications

The study proposes supporting a smooth, functioning and resilient financial system; increasing fiscal measures by the US Government to increase liquidity on constraints; measures by The Federal Reserve to alleviate US dollar funding shortages; support market integrity; ensure continuous transparency and sharing of information; support the health sector, as well as consumer-based sectors that faced demand shocks and facilitate investments in the technology sector.

Originality/value

The originality of this paper lies in the examination of the impact of the novel COVID-19 pandemic on each of the 11 sectors constituting the S&P500 index separately, reflecting how the main economic sectors formulating the US economy reacted to the shock during the peak time of the pandemic to observe a full picture of the economic consequences amid the pandemic.

Details

Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, vol. 14 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1754-4408

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 October 2017

Mongi Arfaoui and Aymen Ben Rejeb

The purpose of this paper is to examine, in a global perspective, the oil, gold, US dollar and stock prices interdependencies and to identify instantaneously direct and indirect…

26203

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine, in a global perspective, the oil, gold, US dollar and stock prices interdependencies and to identify instantaneously direct and indirect linkages among them.

Design/methodology/approach

A methodology based on simultaneous equations system was used to identify direct and indirect linkages for the period 1995-2015. The authors try initially to find theoretical answers to main question of the study by discussing causal bilateral relationships while focusing on multilateral interactions.

Findings

The results show significant interactions between all markets. The authors found a negative relation between oil and stock prices but oil price is significantly and positively affected by gold and USD. Oil price is also affected by oil futures prices and by Chinese oil gross imports. Gold rate is concerned by changes in oil, USD and stock markets. The US dollar is negatively affected by stock market and significantly by oil and gold price. Indirect effects always exist which confirm the presence of global interdependencies and involve the financialization process of commodity markets.

Originality/value

Motivation of this research paper is the substantial implications of price movements on real economy and financial markets. Understanding that co-movement has great value for investors, policy makers and portfolio managers. This paper differs from previous studies in several aspects. First, most of the research papers focus on bilateral linkages solely, while the authors’ investigation was implemented on all the four markets simultaneously. Second, the study was developed in a global framework using international data. The global analysis allows avoiding country specific effects.

Details

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, vol. 26 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2444-8451

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 July 2007

Kuntara Pukthuanthong, Lee R. Thomas Lee R. Thomas III and Carlos Bazan

Recent research indicates that the random walk hypothesis (RWH) approximately describes the behavior of major dollar exchange rates during the post‐1973 float. The present…

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Abstract

Purpose

Recent research indicates that the random walk hypothesis (RWH) approximately describes the behavior of major dollar exchange rates during the post‐1973 float. The present analysis seeks to examine the profitability of currency futures trading rules that assume that spot exchange rates can be adequately modeled as a driftless random walk.

Design/methodology/approach

Two random walk currency futures trading rules are simulated over all available data from the period 1984‐2003. In both cases, the investor buys currencies selling at a discount and sells those selling at a premium, as the RWH implies. The two rules differ only in the way they allocate the hypothetical investor's resources among long and short foreign currency positions.

Findings

Results show that an investor who used these trading strategies over the past decade would have enjoyed large cumulative gains, although periods of profit were interrupted by periods of substantial loss.

Research limitations/implications

The findings encourage the hope that profitable random‐walk‐based strategies for currency futures trading can be devised. The simulation results have important implications for those willing to hedge, borrowers, and speculators.

Originality/value

This paper provides evidence that purchasing futures contracts on currencies priced at a discount and selling futures contracts priced at a premium has generally been a profitable trading strategy during the last two decades of floating exchange rates.

Details

International Journal of Managerial Finance, vol. 3 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1743-9132

Keywords

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