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The issue of substitutability between various modes of import protection has been studied by economists in various ways. Since President Donald Trump came into office and soon started imposing tariffs, the need by US firms to file antidumping (AD) cases would seem to have been reduced. This study aims to examine whether such a reduction in AD cases has occurred.

Quarterly US AD filings via a negative binomial regression analysis are explained. Patterns based on data from 1995 through 2016 are obtained first and then predict US AD petitions for 2017 and 2018.

The authors reject a hypothesis of substitution away from AD in the Trump era of general protectionism but do find some support for the notion that protection moves downstream, with greater than predicted AD filings in downstream metals sectors.

This is the first study to examine the possibility of trade policy substitutability in the Trump era.

Globalization, the multinational firm, and emerging economies have marked the world economic landscape during the last two decades. They will likely continue to define international economic activity in the foreseeable future. This opening piece of the conference on globalization, the multinational firm, and emerging economies helps frame these concepts in today's economic landscape. It explores the impact globalization and the multinational firm have had, and will continue to have, on the emergence of newly industrializing economies onto the world scene and critically evaluates policy options typically followed by these economies to arrive at sustainable economic progress. It concludes with recommendations for future explorations of the interplay of globalization, the multinational firm, and economic emergence.

What roles do trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) play in international technology transfer? Do technologies introduced by multinational firms diffuse to local firms? How does the level of intellectual property rights (IPRs) protection in a country affect its ability to absorb foreign technologies? Using these questions as motivation, this paper surveys the recent trade literature on international technology transfer, paying particular attention to the role of FDI. Several useful conclusions emerge. First, the theoretical literature has shown that trade necessarily encourages growth only if knowledge spillovers are international in scope. Second, existing empirical evidence on the scope of knowledge spillovers (national versus international) is ambiguous. Third, recent empirical plant level studies have called into question earlier studies that argued that FDI has a positive impact on productivity of local firms that compete directly with multinationals. Fourth, there is strong evidence in support of vertical spillovers from FDI: i.e. those firms that either supply multinationals or use goods and services produced by them as intermediate inputs experience productivity gains from such interaction. Fifth, it is well established that the degree of global IPR protection affects the pattern of international trade and convincing evidence that it also influences flows of international technology transfer and FDI has also started to emerge.

This study intends to explore the impact of World Trade Organization (WTO) which came into existence from January 1, 1995, on the export share of developing counties in the world exports of all goods together in US$, that is, in global merchandise trade. This study endogenously determines the structural break in changing export share of developing countries and how are they related to the major changes in the multilateral trading systems of international trade, in particular, the introduction of the WTO by following a multiple breakpoint analysis due to Bai–­Perron. In this context, it would be worthwhile to note that the shift toward more export-oriented strategies by a large number of developing countries has accelerated the growth of LDC exports. This study also compares the changing share of merchandise exports and trade in commercial ­services for developing countries and the LDCs in the Post-WTO regime. The ­authors follow a univariate time-series exploratory analysis to understand the trend in world export shares of all goods and commercial services for different regions of the developing world and demonstrate the potential of these regions in the expansion of trade. The study, while evaluating the impact of WTO in changing export share in terms of structural change analysis, enables us to understand the role tariff cut in the developed countries on the imports from developing countries. This study also observes increasing inequality in terms of export share among different regions of the developing world.

In this study, the authors examine how economic freedom mediates the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in Africa.

By using data from 41 countries over the period 2000–2017, the authors invoke Seo and Shin's (2016) sample splitting approach while relying on the recently developed Seo et al.'s (2019) computationally robust bootstrap algorithm to achieve the purpose of this study.

The authors find evidence of economic freedom threshold that bifurcates the link between FDI and economic growth in Africa. More precisely, FDI does not improve overall economic growth for African countries whose economic freedom index is below the estimated threshold while significantly spurring growth for African countries with economic freedom above this threshold.

African countries need to strive towards improving their level of economic freedom through the strengthening of rule of law, reducing government size, promoting regulatory efficiency and further opening of the goods and capital markets.

The association between FDI and economic growth has been well documented. While the positive theoretical postulations are almost conclusive, empirical literature on the precise effect of FDI remains contentious and far from being settled. What is missing in the existing literature in Africa is whether countries' level of economic freedom mediates how FDI explains the variations in economic growth across African countries. The authors fill this research gap.

This paper aims to compare and analyze the effect of the dual-credit policy and product substitution rate on the automakers’ operational strategies under different production modes (e.g. centralized and independent), and further illustrate which production mode is more conducive to improving new energy vehicle (NEV) development.

The decision-making models for a centralized production mode where an integrated automaker produces both NEVs and fuel vehicles (FVs) and for independent production mode where an NEV automaker faces competition from a traditional FV automaker were formulated. The equilibrium solutions of each production mode were obtained by extreme value and game theory methods. The conclusions of the theoretical analysis were further verified with numerical analyses using IBM-MATLAB R2019a. Some management insights could be obtained by comparison analysis.

Under the dual-credit policy, an increase in the NEV credit trading price will always raise production quantity of NEVs, but only in an independent production mode where a higher trading price will also bring higher total profits to NEV automakers. In addition, only when the NEV credit trading price is high enough, a rising product substitution rate will be more favorable to NEV production and restrain FV production. Furthermore, an independent production mode is more favorable for the initial production of NEVs, but as each of the two vehicle types captures a certain amount of market share, a centralized production mode will be more conducive to the full replacement of FVs by NEVs.

The main contributions of this study include the formulation of decision-making models for FVs and NEVs in not only a centralized production mode but also an independent production mode. Moreover, this paper comprehensively analyzes how the dual-credit policy and product substitution relationship affect automakers’ production and pricing decisions. Then, the specific conditions under which each production mode is more conducive to NEV production and sales are summarized. The results proposed in this study provide scientific managerial insights for automakers and policy makers.

The literature examining the participation of developing countries in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and International Trade Organisation (ITO) negotiations generally sees their attitudes towards these projects as having been driven exclusively by a commitment to import substitution. This commitment, it is argued, led developing countries to oppose many aspects of the GATT/ITO project, particularly the requirement for reciprocal tariff cuts. The purpose of this paper is to focus on examining the critical period around the ultimately doomed negotiation of the Charter for an ITO and the process of creating the GATT.

This paper draws from GATT documents and from the literature on economic history to give a more comprehensive account of the motivating ideas underpinning developing countries attitudes to the post‐war negotiations.

This paper argues that this view misconstrues and caricatures the ideas and motivations underpinning developing countries' attitudes towards the GATT and ITO. Though import substitution and the related objective of industrialisation each played a part in shaping developing countries' attitudes, they are only aspects of a more complex set of aims and ideas. Developing countries were drawing from a range of key experiences and ideas beyond simply import substitution in forming their attitude towards the GATT/ITO project, in particular the volatility in commodity markets that preceded the negotiations, the legacy of colonialism and the lessons provided by the ninetieth and twentieth centuries on trade policy. Finally, this paper argues that the first round of GATT negotiations shows that developing countries were substantially less opposed to reciprocal tariff concessions than has previously been argued.

These findings are important for anyone who wants to understand the evolution of the GATT and the role developing countries played in it, and the difficulties between the rich and poor nations that continue to characterise negotiations in the World Trade Organisation.

The global slack hypothesis is central to the discussion of the trade-offs that monetary policy faces in an increasingly more integrated world. The workhorse New Open Economy Macro (NOEM) model of Martínez-García and Wynne (2010), which fleshes out this hypothesis, shows how expected future local inflation and global slack affect current local inflation. In this chapter, I propose the use of the orthogonalization method of Aoki (1981) and Fukuda (1993) on the workhorse NOEM model to further decompose local inflation into a global component and an inflation differential component. I find that the log-linearized rational expectations model of Martínez-García and Wynne (2010) can be solved with two separate subsystems to describe each of these two components of inflation.

I estimate the full NOEM model with Bayesian techniques using data for the United States and an aggregate of its 38 largest trading partners from 1980Q1 until 2011Q4. The Bayesian estimation recognizes the parameter uncertainty surrounding the model and calls on the data (inflation and output) to discipline the parameterization. My findings show that the strength of the international spillovers through trade – even in the absence of common shocks – is reflected in the response of global inflation and is incorporated into local inflation dynamics. Furthermore, I find that key features of the economy can have different impacts on global and local inflation – in particular, I show that the parameters that determine the import share and the price-elasticity of trade matter in explaining the inflation differential component but not the global component of inflation.

This paper therefore aims at systematically estimating the agricultural trade induced farm employment effects in China.

Using detailed agricultural trade and production data during 1994‐2009, the authors estimate the “labor contents” of agricultural trade flows and use these estimates to compute the farm employment effects.

The authors find that China's agricultural trade has indeed generally developed along its widely believed comparative advantages and disadvantages; however, the farm employment “creation” effect due to labor‐intensive exports has actually been dominated by the employment “substitution” effect due to increased land‐intensive imports, thereby mostly resulting in negative net farm employment in the post‐WTO accession era.

Findings from this first systematic attempt to estimate the trade‐induced farm employment effects do not lend support to the popular notion that increased agricultural trade would help increase farm employment and have important implications for evaluating current and future trade policy in China and elsewhere.

Demonstrates the implications of imperfect substitutability between domestic and imported final goods for the determination of second‐best nominal and effective tariffs in a general equilibrium setting. The analysis of second‐best interventions for given policy distortions extends that by Ruffin and Casas on homogeneous goods to the case where there is product heterogeneity. The second‐best optimal effective rate of protection for given policy distortions is shown to depend upon the nature of the policy distortion and the degree of substitutability between imported and domestic varieties. Although imperfect substitution reduces the extent to which effective protection can be determined from the structure of protection, it increases the extent to which second best tariffs can be determined in a qualitative sense at least when compared with the traditional, perfect substitution case.