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1 – 10 of over 114000This paper attempts to investigate through empirical exercise how the chances of female employment opportunities rise in a developing country like India, against the backdrop of…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper attempts to investigate through empirical exercise how the chances of female employment opportunities rise in a developing country like India, against the backdrop of changes in institutions that are associated with globalization.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper develops a simultaneous equation model through a growth equation, gender equation and globalization equation to identify the factors impacting female labor market opportunities in India, based on annual time series data 1991–2019.
Findings
The major results of this study are as follows: (1) It is social globalization that positively impacts gender equality in employment opportunities apart from economic growth and trade diversification; (2) Evidence of “feminization of labor force” in the context of trade diversification is found; and (3) Equal gender opportunities reflect in equalizing outcomes in the labor market.
Practical implications
Growth strategies need to be constructed in such a way in India that it has redistributive implications and benefits women. The state agency needs to optimize the productive base of human resources and increase women's empowering capability through social and legal sanctions.
Originality/value
The uniqueness of the present paper lies in contributing to the existing literature on how gender inequality impacts trade diversification and how trade diversification impacts gender.
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Saeed Moshiri and Elham Kheirandish
Oil price shocks greatly impact the global economy, but the effects vary among countries. While higher oil prices benefit oil-exporting countries, they harm the economic…
Abstract
Purpose
Oil price shocks greatly impact the global economy, but the effects vary among countries. While higher oil prices benefit oil-exporting countries, they harm the economic performance of oil-importing nations, and vice versa for lower oil prices. However, economic relations, such as trade, can mitigate the impacts of oil price shocks on both groups. In this paper, the authors aim at estimating the effects of oil price shocks on the major net oil-exporting and net oil-importing countries while accounting for international trade.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors derive a reduced form of a macro model and set up a Panel VAR model to estimate the direct and indirect impacts of oil price shocks on economic growth. The sample includes data on macroeconomic variables from 30 oil-exporting and oil-importing countries that comprise more than 73 percent of the world's economy. The authors construct the spillover variables using bilateral trade matrix. To control for institutional and structural variations across the countries, they are divided into four groups of developed and developing oil-exporting and oil-importing countries.
Findings
The results reveal that all oil-exporting countries have significantly benefited from oil price shocks, although trade has dampened the effect. The positive growth effect has been more pronounced in oil-exporting developing countries. The impact of oil price shocks on oil-importing countries has been negative with a one-year delay, but not statistically significant, and trade has only had a small effect. The effect has been more substantial in oil-importing developing countries.
Research limitations/implications
One of the limitations of this study is the focus on trade as the main spillover channel. Given the data availability, other channels such as foreign investment and financial markets can also be included in future studies.
Practical implications
Removing trade restrictions would help both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries to mitigate the negative impacts of the oil price shocks. However, the asymmetric oil-macroeconomy relationship across oil-exporting and oil-importing countries puts oil-exporting countries in a more vulnerable position as they cannot rely on trade with oil-importing countries to reduce the negative impacts of lower oil prices on their growth. Therefore, it is crucial for oil-exporting countries to reassess their oil-dependent development plans and invest their oil revenues in non-oil sectors to diversity their economies and prepare for a future with reduced dependence on oil.
Social implications
The recent technological advances, structural changes, and increasing energy efficiency suggest that major oil-importing countries will become less dependent on oil in near future. As a result, oil-exporting countries will also need to undergo structural changes in order to sustain their income level. These significant changes will have important social implications, particularly in the labor market, during the transition, for which preparation will be necessary.
Originality/value
While the literature on the total impact of oil price shocks on either oil-exporting or oil-importing countries is rich, studies on their spillover impacts are limited. Recent research has shown that trade and migration can affect the impact of oil price shock on the economy in federated countries such as Canada. However, the trade effect on oil price shocks in the international level, where countries are subject to different regulations/restrictions and institutional variations, remains scarce. By considering the trade relationship between different groups of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries, the authors aim to contribute to the literature of the global impacts of oil price shocks on the world economy.
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Gordon Pasiba Kombat and Xiaoqian Chen
Timber export is an important economic development pillar in Ghana, which has a direct effect on Ghana’s domestic forestry industry development, local communities’ income and…
Abstract
Purpose
Timber export is an important economic development pillar in Ghana, which has a direct effect on Ghana’s domestic forestry industry development, local communities’ income and sustainable forest management and deforestation. China, as the Ghana’s largest timber export destination, brought significant impacts on Ghana’s timber export. However, there is a lack of quantitative analyses on impact factors of timber trade between the two countries in the past, which this paper sought to do.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors first collected Ghana’s timber exports to China from 1997 to 2017, and then based on the literature review and trade theories, the authors set up a least squares estimate (LSE)-based multiple linear regression (MLR) model to analyse the specific impact factors. In addition, multi-collinearity, autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity issues of the impact factors were checked to guarantee the accuracy of the results.
Findings
The results showed China timber import volume, Ghana cedi (GHC)/US$ exchange rate, Ghana’s gross domestic product (GDP) and China timber consumption volume in construction sector had positive impacts; Ghana timber production volume and Ghana average timber export price had negative impacts. The results confirmed that China’s timber consumption had a positive linkage with Ghana’s timber export. The article also reviewed possible impacts caused by change in timber trade policies, which proved important but was hardly directly quantified. The authors pointed out the importance of optimizing these impact factors to make sure Ghana’s timber export to China went on the sustainable track.
Originality/value
There is no literature about timber trade and its impact factors between Ghana and China, which used econometric models. This paper provided new perspectives on the impact factors in timber trade between the two countries.
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Chung Van Dong and Hoan Quang Truong
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has been negatively affecting international trade between countries; however, there is a lack of empirical studies on developing…
Abstract
Purpose
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has been negatively affecting international trade between countries; however, there is a lack of empirical studies on developing countries such as Vietnam. This article aims to investigate how the COVID-19 cases and related deaths and policy response by Vietnam and trading partners to the pandemic affect Vietnam's export activities.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use the monthly trade data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs and employ the Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) estimator to empirically investigate the effects of COVID-19 and policy response to the pandemic on Vietnam's exports at aggregate and sectoral levels over a 33-month period.
Findings
In the first year of the pandemic (January–December 2020) as well as the whole study period (January 2019–September 2021), trading partners' COVID-19 burden adversely affected Vietnam's aggregate exports, and the effect of COVID-19 deaths is significantly larger than that of COVID-19 cases. In the first year of the pandemic, estimates show a negative effect of Vietnam's COVID-19 cases on its exports, while no evidence reveals the impact of Vietnam's COVID-19 deaths. However, during the entire study period, there are remarkable adverse effects of Vietnam's COVID-19 deaths on its exports. The effect of the COVID-19 burden in Vietnam and in its trading partners differs significantly across major subsectors. In the first year, there is a positive role of government response to the pandemic by Vietnam and its trading partners in Vietnam's aggregate exports, while in the whole study period, only a positive effect of Vietnam's government response is found. Economic support and free trade agreements (FTAs) have a positive effect on Vietnam's exports. In the first year of the pandemic, Vietnam's export losses due to COVID-19 outweighed its export gains from the pandemic. However, Vietnam's exports have significantly improved over the nine months of 2021.
Research limitations/implications
Efforts should aim to reduce the number of COVID-19 deaths rather than focus on reducing the number of COVID-19 cases. The application of stringency measures by both exporters and importers should be minimized, or at least those measures need to be combined with health methods, such as testing policy and contact tracing, short-term investment in healthcare and especially investments in vaccines. In addition, economic support, particularly debt relief, needs to be widely applied to assist firms, especially those involved in international trade. The expansion of FTA networks and diversifying export destinations may be helpful in maintaining production networks and export activities.
Practical implications
In the long-term period, the application of stringency measures by both exporters and importers should be minimized, or at least those measures need to be combined with health methods such as testing policy and contact tracing, short-term investment in healthcare and especially investments in vaccines. In addition, economic assistance, particularly debt relief, needs to be widely applied to assist firms, especially those involved in international trade activities.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the paper is among the first studies empirically investigating the impacts of COVID-19 and policy response to the pandemic on aggregate and sectoral exports from Vietnam. The paper also measures the absolute value of export gain and export loss due to the pandemic between Vietnam and trading countries.
Zameelah Khan Jaffur, Boopen Seetanah, Verena Tandrayen-Ragoobur, Sheereen Fauzel, Viraiyan Teeroovengadum and Sonalisingh Ramsohok
This study aims at evaluating the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the export trade system for Mauritius during the first half of 2020 (January 2020–June 2020).
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims at evaluating the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the export trade system for Mauritius during the first half of 2020 (January 2020–June 2020).
Design/methodology/approach
An initial analysis of the monthly export time series data proves that on the whole, the series have diverged from their actual trends after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic: observed values are less than those predicted by the selected optimal forecast models. The authors subsequently employ the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) framework for causal analysis to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the island's export system.
Findings
Overall, the findings show that the COVID-19 pandemic has a statistically significant and negative impact on the Mauritian export trade system, with the five main export trading partners and sectors the most affected. Despite that the impact in some cases is not apparent for the period of study, the results indicate that total exports will surely be affected by the pandemic in the long run. Nevertheless, this depends on the measures taken both locally and globally to mitigate the spread of the pandemic.
Originality/value
This study thus contributes to the growing literature on the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic by focussing on a small island economy.
Tekuni Nakuja and William A. Kerr
The issue of subsidized acquisition of food stocks for food security purposes has become a contentious issue at the World Trade Organization (WTO) due to their potential impact on…
Abstract
Purpose
The issue of subsidized acquisition of food stocks for food security purposes has become a contentious issue at the World Trade Organization (WTO) due to their potential impact on international trade. The purpose of this paper is to provide estimates of the effects on trade of stockholding programs designed specifically to meet a food security objective.
Design/methodology/approach
A spatial-temporal trade model is developed and then the effects of stockholding policies which satisfy food security goals are simulated and compared to the case where stockholdings are not allowed.
Findings
The results suggest that if stockholding policies that satisfy food security goals are allowed in the case of all importing countries and all G-33 developing countries trade will increase significantly during the stock acquisition phase but will have a negative impact on trade during stock disposal. If stockholding policies are restricted to small high food security risk countries, however, the impacts on trade would not be large enough to be of international concern.
Originality/value
The results suggests that a permanent solution at the WTO might lie in exemptions for small high food security risk countries rather than a one size fits all rule applied to all developing countries. Trade policy makers have been charged with finding a permanent solution to the issue of subsidized public stockholdings for food security purposes but have been hampered, in part, by a dearth of empirical estimates of the effect of such stockholdings on trade. This paper informs the negotiations.
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Russel Poskitt and Peihong Yang
This study investigates the impact of the enhanced continuous disclosure regime introduced in December 2002 on several measures of information risk in NZX‐listed stocks. We employ…
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of the enhanced continuous disclosure regime introduced in December 2002 on several measures of information risk in NZX‐listed stocks. We employ two microstructure models and an intraday data set to measure information risk in a sample of 71 stocks. Our empirical results show that the reforms enacted in December 2002 had no significant effect on either the level of information‐based trading or the adverse selection component of market spreads in our sample of NZX‐listed stocks.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine the changes in the price impact of trades in the major Korean stock market following the introduction of disclosure to all traders of the…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the changes in the price impact of trades in the major Korean stock market following the introduction of disclosure to all traders of the top five brokers on the buy-side and the top five brokers on the sell-side of trades in real time for each stock in the KOSDAQ market.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses several alternative metrics for the price impact of trades. The study applies estimation methodology that accounts for the potential endogeneity of other market quality proxies, which are used as control variables in price impact regressions, by utilizing two-stage-least-square methods with fixed effect specification.
Findings
This study finds that the permanent price impact (information effect) of both buyer- and seller-initiated trades increases, which indicates that information is disseminated quicker in a transparent market. Uninformed trades have a larger permanent price impact than informed trades on both the buy and sell sides. The liquidity price effects are found to be mixed for buys and sells.
Research limitations/implications
The study supports the current policy of the Korean Exchange to publicly display the five most active broker IDs on both the buy and sell sides, as it attracts both informed and liquidity traders, leading to faster price discovery in a more transparent market. However, a future study which analyzes the change in the market quality in both local markets would provide a complete picture of the effects of the policy.
Originality/value
Earlier studies documenting the effect of broker ID disclosure on market quality used effective spreads, market depth or order book imbalance as market quality measures. This study contributes to the existing literature by examining the changes in direct measures of the private information effect and liquidity effect of trades in a stock market – the Korean Stock Exchange – when the other part of the exchange (the KOSDAQ stock market) shifts to public broker ID transparency at the same transparency level.
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Unggul Heriqbaldi, Miguel Angel Esquivias, Rossanto Dwi Handoyo, Alfira Cahyaning Rifami and Hilda Rohmawati
This paper aims to examine whether Indonesian cross-border trade responds asymmetrically to exchange rate volatility (ERV).
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine whether Indonesian cross-border trade responds asymmetrically to exchange rate volatility (ERV).
Design/methodology/approach
An exponential generalized autorgressive conditional heteroscedasticity model is applied to estimate the ERV of Indonesia and ten main trade partners using quarterly data from 2006 to 2020. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag estimation is applied to estimate the impact of ERV on cross-border trade. Impacts from the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic are covered. Dynamic panel data is used for the robustness test.
Findings
In the short-run, ERV significantly affects exports to most of the top partners (positively, negatively or both). In the long run, asymmetric effects occur in Indonesia’s exports to five top destinations. The weakening of the Indonesian Rupiah mainly supports exports in the short term. Imports from top partners are also affected by ERV in both the short run and, to a lesser extent, in the long run. Both the GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic reduced trade: for most cases, in the short run. The dynamic panel model suggests that ERV has asymmetric impact on cross-border trade in the long run.
Practical implications
Exchange rate strategies need to avoid a single-side policy approach and, instead, account for exporter and importer differences in risk behaviour and an asymmetric response to ERV in trade. Policymakers need to consider policies that stabilise the currency.
Originality/value
This study provides evidence that cross-border trade can react asymmetrically to the exchange rate uncertainty and that the impacts of real ERV are asymmetric as well. The authors also apply a dynamic panel that signals that ERV matters in the long run for Indonesian trade with top partners.
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Algorithmic trading attempts to reduce trading costs by selecting optimal trade execution and scheduling algorithms. Whilst many common approaches only consider the bid-ask spread…
Abstract
Purpose
Algorithmic trading attempts to reduce trading costs by selecting optimal trade execution and scheduling algorithms. Whilst many common approaches only consider the bid-ask spread when measuring market impact, the authors aim to analyse the detailed limit order book data, which has more informational content.
Design/methodology/approach
Using data from the London Stock Exchange's electronic SETS platform, the authors transform limit order book compositions into volume-weighted average price curves and accordingly estimate market impact. The regression coefficients of these curves are estimated, and their intraday patterns are revealed using a nonparametric kernel regression model.
Findings
The authors find that market impact is nonlinear, time-varying, and asymmetric. Inferences drawn from marginal probabilities regarding Granger-causality do not show a significant impact of slope coefficients on the opposite side of the limit order book, thus implying that each side of the market is simultaneously rather than sequentially influenced by prevailing market conditions.
Research limitations/implications
Results show that intraday seasonality patterns of liquidity may be exploited through trade scheduling algorithms in an attempt to minimise the trading costs associated with large institutional trades.
Originality/value
The use of the detailed limit order book to reveal intraday patterns in liquidity provision offers better insight into the interactions of market participants. Such valuable information cannot be fully recovered from the traditional transaction data-based approaches.
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