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1 – 10 of over 1000Trade relations between China and the USA have been marked by conflict, especially since China’s membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO). These conflicts have been…
Abstract
Purpose
Trade relations between China and the USA have been marked by conflict, especially since China’s membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO). These conflicts have been analyzed from a variety of perspectives, including the loss of jobs in the USA due to Chinese imports, competition in high technology sectors and the balance of trade. Conceptual frameworks have employed models of domestic differences as well as models of international power distribution. Among domestic differences examined are the existence of state-owned enterprises in China compared to the domination of the USA economy by private firms, the large role of the Communist Party in China and the influence of labor and environmental and labor groups in the USA. Power distribution theories focus on the systemic effects of the distribution of power on trade openness and on the pattern of intra-bloc versus between-bloc trade. This paper aims to examine the role of macroeconomic policy factors in China and the USA, in particular, the role of national patterns of savings, investment and consumption (both private and government). The paper concludes that insofar as the balance of trade is an important component of the trade conflict, domestic macroeconomic factors continue to be important. The resolution of the conflict will have to take into account the respective macroeconomic policies of China and the USA.
Design/methodology/approach
The design is an analytic case study of US–China trade relations with a particular focus on the balance of trade. The conceptual framework employed involves an analysis of macroeconomic policy categories, especially the overall pattern of savings (household, firm and government), investment and consumption. Process tracing over time since China's membership in the WTO is carried out with an eye toward the relationship between the balance of trade and macroeconomic policy.
Findings
The main findings are that there is a strong relation between the respective macroeconomic policies of the USA and China and their trade relations. The domestic political economy of the USA encourages consumption and a low rate of savings. The opposite is true of China where household income is low by design and national savings are high. China depends on the USA to consume what is not consumed domestically. The USA depends on Chinese imports for additional consumption encouraged by its low rate of savings. The two economies are locked in a mutual dependence.
Research limitations/implications
Key research implications are that there should be more focus on domestic macroeconomic policies since these are the root causes of the trade imbalance. This is not to say that trade frictions centering on jobs, subsidies and competition in high technology are unimportant. However, without the resolution of differences in the management of macroeconomic policies, trade conflicts between the USA and China will continue.
Practical implications
Practical implications are huge, in some ways much more important than the academic implications. Macroeconomic policy differences in savings, investment, government spending, taxation and infrastructure are important. Furthermore, there are available tools in both China and the USA to manage the macroeconomy, particularly, monetary and fiscal policy.
Social implications
One implication of this paper is that satisfaction or dissatisfaction of workers is dependent on income distribution which in turn affects trade. Treatment of people in different socioeconomic categories, such as the elderly, the young, and those at working age are a function of macroeconomic policies.
Originality/value
Many people have written about macroeconomics. It is a conventional subfield of economics. The originality of this paper lies in its advocacy of a shift of focus and attention and in the argument that traditional macroeconomics is related to trade. Despite its importance, macroeconomics has not been the center of attention for most political scientists, though economists have made it more central.
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Conghua Wen, Fei Jia and Jianli Hao
Using intraday data, the authors explore the forecast ability of one high frequency order flow imbalance measure (OI) based on the volume-synchronized probability of informed…
Abstract
Purpose
Using intraday data, the authors explore the forecast ability of one high frequency order flow imbalance measure (OI) based on the volume-synchronized probability of informed trading metric (VPIN) for predicting the realized volatility of the index futures on the China Securities Index 300 (CSI 300).
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ the heterogeneous autoregressive model for realized volatility (HAR-RV) and compare the forecast ability of models with and without the predictive variable, OI.
Findings
The empirical results demonstrate that the augmented HAR model incorporating OI (HARX-RV) can generate more precise forecasts, which implies that the order imbalance measure contains substantial information for describing the volatility dynamics.
Originality/value
The study sheds light on the relation between high frequency trading behavior and volatility forecasting in China's index futures market and reveals the underlying market mechanisms of liquidity-induced volatility.
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To Quyen Hoang Thuy Nguyen Le and Toan Khanh Tran Pham
The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between public spending, budget imbalance and underground economy. In addition, this paper investigates how budget…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between public spending, budget imbalance and underground economy. In addition, this paper investigates how budget imbalance moderates the public spending–underground nexus.
Design/methodology/approach
By utilizing a data set spanning from 1995 to 2017 of 35 OECD countries, the study has employed Dynamic Common Correlated Effects (DCCE) approach. The study is also extended to consider the marginal effects of public spending on the underground economy at different degrees of budget imbalance.
Findings
The results indicate that an increase in public spending and budget imbalance contributes to the expansion of underground economy. Interestingly, the effects of public spending on the underground economy will enhance and intensify with a higher budget imbalance level. The results are robust to various specifications and their broader implications are discussed.
Practical implications
Governments should carefully implement a fiscal policy with a clear understanding that increasing public spending leads to the expansion of informality. Besides, policymakers should enforce supportive policies to boost economic growth, cooperation and cross-border trade to control the size of the underground economy.
Originality/value
This study stresses the role of public spending, budget imbalance on the underground economy in OECD nations. To the best of the author's knowledge, this study pioneers to explore the moderating effect of budget imbalance in the public spending–undergrround nexus.
Peer review
The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-09-2022-0645.
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This paper aims to investigate asymmetric long-run effects of bilateral exchange rate on US trade imbalances with China and to examine if the effects are the same under China’s…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate asymmetric long-run effects of bilateral exchange rate on US trade imbalances with China and to examine if the effects are the same under China’s fixed and managed floating exchange rate systems.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors estimate both linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model assuming symmetric effect and nonlinear ARDL model assuming asymmetric effect of exchange rate on US trade deficit with China. The authors use data from 1994Q1 to 2005Q2 (under Chinese fixed exchange rate system), from 2005Q3 to 2021Q3 (under Chinese managed floating exchange rate regime), and from 1994Q1 to 2021Q3 (overall data).
Findings
The Chow test indicates 2005Q3 is a structure break point. Further, the results suggest the effects of bilateral exchange rate on US trade deficit with China are not the same under different exchange rate systems. The asymmetric long-run effect of bilateral exchange rate does exist. The results also demonstrate the depreciation of Chinese currency will not significantly affect US trade imbalances with China.
Research limitations/implications
Based on the results, the Chinese Government should embrace a more transparent and flexible exchange rate system. It will not significantly hurt Chinese trade balance, but it will help to reduce the tension between the USA and China.
Originality/value
All previous literature (except two papers) related to the effect of Chinese exchange rate on US trade deficit with China assume the effect is symmetric, and all (except one) use data under different Chinese exchange rate systems. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper that studies the possible asymmetric long-run effect of bilateral exchange rate under different Chinese exchange rate regimes.
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Dhyani Mehta and M. Mallikarjun
This study aims to examine the impact of fiscal deficit, exchange rate and trade openness on current account deficit (CAD). The study tried to empirically investigate the ‘twin…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to examine the impact of fiscal deficit, exchange rate and trade openness on current account deficit (CAD). The study tried to empirically investigate the ‘twin deficits hypothesis’ and ‘compensation hypothesis’ in the Indian context.
Design/methodology/approach
Autoregressive distributed lagARDL) bound test approach was used by taking annual time series data from 1978 to 2021. The estimates confirm a significant long-run and short-run relationship between dependent variables, i.e. CAD and independent variables such as the fiscal deficit, exchange rate and trade openness.
Findings
The results show that positive shocks of all explanatory variables significantly affect the CAD. CAD and fiscal deficit are significantly associated, as the coefficient of fiscal deficit is positive and significant. The study also found that exchange rate and trade openness significantly affect the CAD. The coefficients of exchange rate and trade openness are positive and significant. The findings show that an increase in CADs results from liberal trade policies that help domestic industries grow their trade and expansionary fiscal policy, leading to a higher fiscal deficit. The negative and significant error correction term suggests that short-run disequilibrium converges to long-run equilibrium at a speed of 19.2%. The findings validate the ‘twin deficits hypothesis’ and ‘compensation hypothesis’ in the Indian context.
Practical implications
It can be inferred from the study that liberal policy to promote economic growth and trade openness should be designed and promoted judiciously. An excessive liberalised approach may impact other macroeconomic variables such as current account balances. Integrating the domestic market with global markets poses a big challenge for countries like India that aspire to penetrate global markets. Furthermore, the Indian policy makers should rigorously work and promote the policies such as Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) as reduction in fiscal deficits, trade imbalances will also be reduced.
Originality/value
This study contributes to the existing literature on ‘twin deficit’ and trade openness by giving new evidence on the trilemma between designing sustainable fiscal policy by spending wisely without imperilling the country's global presence and CAD.
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Liner shipping plays a crucial role in facilitating the movement of manufactured goods around the world. While previous literature has shown that liner shipping is an important…
Abstract
Purpose
Liner shipping plays a crucial role in facilitating the movement of manufactured goods around the world. While previous literature has shown that liner shipping is an important trade driver, potential differences across trade routes and world regions have not as yet been explored. This paper examines whether the impact of liner shipping on bilateral trade flows differs significantly across world regions, as well as exploring other geographical patterns.
Design/methodology/approach
Using state-of-the-art gravity modelling, this paper investigates the impact of the UNCTAD's Liner Shipping Bilateral Connectivity Index on bilateral trade in manufactured goods using a comprehensive database of disaggregated trade data for the period from 2006 to 2019.
Findings
The results show that the trade effect of liner shipping is greater in long-distance and interregional bilateral flows. For some regions, such as North America and Oceania, the effect is greater than the world average, while for others, such as Africa and South America, the effect is significantly smaller. The trade effects of liner shipping connectivity on the main east–west routes are average, but clear asymmetry emerges when analysing China's inward and outward trade flows separately.
Originality/value
The results of this paper show that the major east–west routes determine the baseline trade effects of liner shipping, demonstrate that some north–south trades such as those involving Oceania generate larger trade effects and confirm that the trade effects of liner shipping can be improved for some world regions such as South America and Africa.
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Oliver E. Ogbonna and Hyacinth E. Ichoku
The experience of rising trade imbalance between Nigeria and its key trading partners in recent years motivated this study. Previous studies on this issue either ignored bilateral…
Abstract
Purpose
The experience of rising trade imbalance between Nigeria and its key trading partners in recent years motivated this study. Previous studies on this issue either ignored bilateral level or assumed that the effect of crude oil price and/or exchange rate changes on trade balance is symmetric. Consequently, this study investigates whether Nigeria's bilateral trade balance with Belgium, China, United Kingdom (UK) and USA is responding symmetrically or asymmetrically to changes in oil price and exchange rate.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors used nonlinear autoregressive-distributed lag (NARDL) model that decomposed oil price and exchange rate into partial sum processes of positive and negative changes over the period 1999Q1–2019Q4.
Findings
The study finds that the effects of oil price hike and plunge asymmetrically influence Nigeria's trade balance with the UK and USA. Further evidence indicated that oil price plunge exerts greater influence than price hike in all the cases, except the UK in the long run. Furthermore, Nigeria's trade balance responds asymmetrically and significantly to changes in exchange rate with China in the long run and with China and the UK in the short run. Specifically, the depreciation effect is more prominent than appreciation.
Originality/value
Significant contributions to the existing literature in Nigeria include the recognition that the effects of oil price and exchange rate changes on trade are asymmetric and the disaggregation of trade into bilateral level to identify country-specific effect.
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In this study, we investigate what drives the MAX effect in the South Korean stock market. We find that the MAX effect is significant only for overpriced stocks categorized by the…
Abstract
In this study, we investigate what drives the MAX effect in the South Korean stock market. We find that the MAX effect is significant only for overpriced stocks categorized by the composite mispricing index. Our results suggest that investors' demand for the lottery and the arbitrage risk effect of MAX may overlap and negate each other. Furthermore, MAX itself has independent information apart from idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL), which assures that the high positive correlation between IVOL and MAX does not directly cause our empirical findings. Finally, by analyzing the direct trading behavior of investors, our results suggest that investors' buying pressure for lottery-like stocks is concentrated among overpriced stocks.
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Ruixiang Jiang, Bo Wang, Chunchi Wu and Yue Zhang
This chapter examines the impacts of scheduled announcements of 14 widely followed macroeconomic news on the corporate bond market from July 2002 to June 2017 and documents…
Abstract
This chapter examines the impacts of scheduled announcements of 14 widely followed macroeconomic news on the corporate bond market from July 2002 to June 2017 and documents several new findings. First, good (bad) macroeconomic news tends to have a negative (positive) effect on IG bond returns and a positive (negative) effect on high-yield (HY) bond returns. Second, nonfarm payroll (NFP) appears to be the “King of announcements” for the corporate bond market. Third, while information about revisions of prior releases is incorporated into bond prices on announcement days, future revisions fail to be priced in. Fourth, the news information is thoroughly and quickly reflected in bond prices on the announcement day. Finally, corporate bond volatility increases on announcement days, whereas the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) policy has little effect on conditional volatility.
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Ketki Kaushik and Shruti Shastri
This study aims to assess the nexus among oil price (OP), renewable energy consumption (REC) and trade balance (TB) for India using annual time series data for the time period…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to assess the nexus among oil price (OP), renewable energy consumption (REC) and trade balance (TB) for India using annual time series data for the time period 1985–2019. In particular, the authors examine whether REC improves India's TB in the context of high oil import dependence.
Design/methodology/approach
The study uses autoregressive distributed lags (ARDL) bound testing approach that has the advantage of yielding estimates of long-run and short-run parameters simultaneously. Moreover, the small sample properties of this approach are superior to other multivariate cointegration techniques. Fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) are also applied to test the robustness of the results. The causality among the series is investigated through block exogeneity test based on vector error correction model.
Findings
The findings based on ARDL bounds testing approach indicate that OPs exert a negative impact on TB of India in both long run and short run, whereas REC has a favorable impact on the TB. In particular, 1% increase in OPs decreases TBs by 0.003% and a 1% increase in REC improves TB by 0.011%. The results of FMOLS and DOLS corroborate the findings from ARDL estimates. The results of block exogeneity test suggest unidirectional causation from OPs to TB; OPs to REC and REC to TB.
Practical implications
The study underscore the importance of renewable energy as a potential tool to curtail trade deficits in the context of Indian economy. Our results suggest that the policymakers must pay attention to the hindrances in augmentation of renewable energy usage and try to capitalize on the resulting gains for the TB.
Social implications
Climate change is a major challenge for developing countries like India. Renewable energy sector is considered an important instrument toward attaining the twin objectives of environmental sustainability and employment generation. This study underscores another role of REC as a tool to achieve a sustainable trade position, which may help India save her valuable forex reserves for broader objectives of economic development.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that probes the dynamic nexus among OPs, REC and TB in Indian context. From a policy standpoint, the study underscores the importance of renewable energy as a potential tool to curtail trade deficits in context of India. From a theoretical perspective, the study extends the literature on the determinants of TB by identifying the role of REC in shaping TB.
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