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While previous studies focused mainly on East Asia to Europe or United States trade routes, in recent years, trade among South-East Asian countries has increased notably. The price of transporting a container is not fixed and can fluctuate heavily over the course of a week. Besides, extant literature only identified seasonality patterns in the container freight market, but did not explore route-varying seasonality patterns. Hence, this study analyses container freight seasonality patterns of the six South-East Asian routes of the South-East Asian Freight Index (SEAFI) and the index itself and forecasts them.

Data of the composite SEAFI and six routes are collected from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange (SSE) including 167 weekly observations from 2016 to 2019. The SEAFI and individual route data reflect spot rates from the Shanghai Port to South-East Asia base ports. The authors analyse seasonality patterns using polar plots. For forecasting, the study utilize two univariate models, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive neural network (SNNAR). For both models, the authors compare forecasting results of original level and log-transformed data.

This study finds that the seasonality patterns of the six South-East Asian container trade routes are identical in an overall but exhibits unique characteristics. ARIMA models perform better than SNNAR models for one-week ahead test-sample forecasting. The SNNAR models offer better performance for 4-week ahead forecasting for two selected routes only.

Major industry players such as shipping lines, shippers, ship-owners and others should take into account the route-level seasonality patterns in their decision-making. Forecast analysts can consider using the original level data without log transformation in their analysis. The authors suggest using ARIMA models in one-step and four-step ahead forecasting for majority of the routes. The SNNAR models are recommended for multi-step forecasting for Shanghai to Vietnam and Shanghai to Thailand routes only.

This study analyses a new shipping index, that is, the SEAFI and its underlying six routes. The authors analyze the seasonality pattern of container freight rate data using polar plot and perform forecasting using ARIMA and SNNAR models. Moreover, the authors experiment forecasting performance of log-transformed and non-transformed series.

As of January 1, 2020, the upper limit of sulfur emissions outside emission control areas decreased from 3.5% to 0.5%. This paper aims to present some of the challenges associated with the implementation of the sulfur cap and investigates its possible side effects as regard the drive of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. Even though it would appear that the two issues (desulfurization and decarbonization) are unrelated, it turns out that there are important cross-linkages between them, which have not been examined, at least by the regulators.

A literature review and a qualitative risk assessment of possible CO₂ contributors are presented first. A cost-benefit analysis is then conducted on a specific case study, so as to assess the financial, as well as the environmental impact of two main compliance choices, in terms of CO₂ and sulfur oxide.

From a financial perspective, the choice of a scrubber ranks better comparing to a marine gas oil (MGO) choice because of the price difference between MGO and heavy fuel oil. However, and under different price scenarios, the scrubber choice remains sustainable only for big vessels. It is noticed that small containerships cannot outweigh the capital cost of a scrubber investment and are more sensitive in different fuel price scenarios. From an environmental perspective, scrubber ranks better than MGO in the assessment of overall emissions.

Fuel price data in this paper was based on 2019 data. As this paper was being written, the COVID-19 pandemic created a significant upheaval in global trade flows, cargo demand and fuel prices. This made any attempt to perform even a rudimentary ex-post evaluation of the 2020 sulfur cap virtually impossible. Due to limited data, such an evaluation would be extremely difficult even under normal circumstances. This paper nevertheless made a brief analysis to investigate possible COVID-19 impacts.

The main implication is that the global sulfur cap will increase CO₂ emissions. In that sense, this should be factored in the IMO greenhouse gas discussion.

According to the knowledge of the authors, no analysis examining the impact of the 2020 sulfur cap on CO₂ emissions has yet been conducted in the scientific literature.

This study examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the well-being and mental health of the seafarers who had to overstay on ships after their contracts expired, identifies topics that affect their mental distress and recommends measures to overcome these.

Four research questions about the impacts on the seafarers before and during the COVID-19 pandemic were raised. A literature review and a questionnaire survey were conducted to find answers. Ship officers were asked to assess and fill in the questionnaires for the stranded seafarers onboard in order to collect sufficient samples rapidly for this study.

Despite the guidelines provided by the shipping companies being adequate to protect the seafarers from COVID-19, their mental distress levels have been worsened under the pandemic. The crew change crisis causes anxiety and negatively impacts on their working performance; however, the repatriation expectation of the stranded seafarers is of the highest concern. Three topics were identified as having impacts on the mental health of the stranded seafarers: crew change crisis, low vaccination rate and the lack of key worker recognition. While international stakeholders are advocating for support in these issues, the shipping companies and the seafarers need to do their parts to exacerbate the mental distress, and to survive and thrive beyond the pandemic.

The findings of this study will help the shipping companies to navigate the challenges and the seafarers to overcome issues caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Bulk shipping mostly facilitates the smooth flow of raw materials around the globe. Regardless, forecasting a bulk shipbuilding orderbook is a seldom researched domain in the academic arena. This study aims to pioneer an econophysics approach coupled with an autoregressive data analysis technique for bulk shipbuilding order forecasting.

By offering an innovative forecasting method, this study provides a comprehensive but straightforward econophysics approach to forecast new shipbuilding order of bulk carrier. The model has been evaluated through autoregressive integrated moving average analysis, and the outcome indicates a relatively stable good fit.

The outcomes of the econophysics model indicate a relatively stable good fit. Although relevant maritime data and its quality need to be improved, the flexibility in refining the predictive variables ensure the robustness of this econophysics-based forecasting model.

By offering an innovative forecasting method, this study provides a comprehensive but straightforward econophysics approach to forecast new shipbuilding order of bulk carrier. The research result helps shipping investors make decision in a capital-intensive and uncertainty-prone environment.

This paper aims to analyze the ethical responses of the fashion industry to the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic when the entire world was shocked by the rapid spread of the virus. The authors describe lessons from emergency ethics of care in the fashion industry during the initial months of COVID-19, which can assist fashion managers in improving ethical decisions in future operations.

Rapid qualitative research methods were employed by conducting real-time, in-depth interviews with key informants from multinational fashion companies operating in Spain, a severely affected region. A content analysis of news articles published during the first months of 2020 was conducted.

Five critical disruptions in the fashion industry were identified: (1) changes in public needs, (2) transportation and distribution backlogs, (3) defective and counterfeit supplies, (4) stakeholder relationships at stake and (5) managers' coping challenges. Additionally, five business survival responses with a strong ethics of care component were identified, implemented by some fashion companies to mitigate the damage: (1) adapting production for public well-being, (2) enhancing the flexibility of logistic networks, (3) emphasizing quality and innovation, (4) reinventing stakeholder collaborations and (5) practicing responsible leadership.

Despite the well-documented controversies surrounding unethical practices within the fashion industry, even during COVID-19, our findings inform managers of the potential and capability of fashion companies to operate more responsibly. The lessons learned can guide fashion companies' operations in a post-pandemic society. Furthermore, they can address other grand challenges, such as natural disasters, geopolitical conflicts and climate change.

In a supply-constrained region like Asia, promoting exports has always been a challenge particularly at a time when Asia’s trade has been severely affected by lack of external demand. This paper argues that price barriers have taken a new shape during the global financial crisis period which may generate differential impacts on trade flows as we proceed toward recovery. The size and shape of price barriers would be higher if NTBs, applied by the countries during the crisis period, were counted. One of the conclusions of this paper is that ‘price’ barrier is still more important than ‘non-price’ barrier in enhancing Asia’s trade and integration. The higher the price barrier between countries in a pair, the less they trade. In other words, a 10 percent increase in the ad-valorem price (transport and tariff) lowered trade by 6 percent. Tariff and transport costs, each considered separately, also influence the trade flow in the same direction, to more or less the same extent. There are indications of huge domestic infrastructure bottlenecks in countries in Asia. Based on direct and indirect evidence related to trade barriers, this paper concludes that complementary trade policies focusing on price and non-price barriers have immense importance in enhancing international trade and integration in the post-crisis period.

One of the important goals of trade facilitation is to lower the costs of trade that serve as a barrier to the developing countries from enjoying the benefits of increased trade and becoming integrated into global supply chains that account for nearly 60 percent of global trade today. The high trade costs that are plaguing most developing countries is mainly incurred from the lack of adequate trade-related infrastructure and low quality of institutions that hinder the efficient flow of goods across and within borders. Therefore, the trade facilitation rules that are contained in FTAs among bilateral trading partners are inevitably aimed at deepening their participation in the global value chain network. However, an observation of the FTAs concluded by Korea and the trade facilitation rules contained therein shows that the current trade facilitation rules in bilateral FTAs may be of little practical use for countries that lack the capacity to be involved in the international production activities in the first place. From the development perspective, the current WTO negotiations on trade facilitation which take full account of the special and differential treatment needs of the less developed country members appear more likely to contribute to providing the trading environment that is free from the barriers to trade that have inhibited the less developed countries from integration into the global supply chains and the benefits thereof.

The purpose of this study is to empirically analyze the impact of logistics efficiency on trade volume growth, and to examine the effects of lower tariffs resulting from free trade agreements. In order to measure the impact of logistics efficiency on trade volume growth, the export and import trade volume among 53 countries was introduced as the dependent variable. Macroeconomic indicators including annual average tariff rate, logistics efficiency indicators for port, air, railroad, road and container vessel connectivity, as well as dummy variables such as whether a free trade agreement was signed, were introduced as the explanatory variables. Bilateral panel data between trading nations was used to estimate the gravity panel model, and analysis followed the categorization: 1) separate inputs of the five logistics efficiency variables and 2) one aggregated input of the five variables as a single indicator. The analysis found that logistics efficiency had a statistically significant impact on bilateral trade volume growth, while the impact of lowering tariff rates on increasing trade was insignificant. In addition, logistics efficiency was found to have a greater impact on increasing trade volume than free trade agreements. These results imply that trade can be promoted more effectively by establishing and efficiently operating logistics-related infrastructure rather than traditional methods of reducing trade barriers such as lowering tariffs and signing free trade agreements.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the influence of export logistics components: shipment arrangements, timely delivery, customs quality, trade infrastructure, and tracking and tracing on export competitiveness of firms in the East African Community (EAC).

The study adopted the Structural Gravity Model and the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML). PPML a nonlinear estimation method was applied in STATA on a balanced panel data for the period of 2007–2018. Data were obtained from World Bank International Trade Centre (ITC), World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI) and World Bank development indicators.

Results show that timely delivery and tracking and tracing of exports are positive and significant predictors of export competitiveness in EAC countries. Conversely, shipment arrangements, customs quality and trade infrastructure have no influence on export competitiveness.

The results of this study show that export logistics components of shipment arrangements, customs quality and trade infrastructure do not matter at the present in improving export competitiveness in the EAC. There is a need to examine the intricate nature of the EAC economy to further this study's findings.

The EAC partner states should embrace deep integration by removing the behind the border trade barriers in addition to other trade restrictions, to create a common economic space among member states. This will further shrink the delivery time and the tracking and tracing of exports hence improving the competitiveness of EAC exports within the region and outside. Also, common and harmonized trade policies and regulations should be implemented through mutual recognition agreements where countries agree to recognize one another's conformity assessments.

This study explains the complex dynamic interactions of export logistics factors in the EAC using quantitative data and that this interaction has an effect on the export competitiveness in import-dominated countries with less harmonization in their trade policies.