Search results

Investigates the time series relationship between export earnings instability and instability in receipts from international tourism for Singapore between 1972 and 1988. Computes four standardized instability indexes for both merchandize exports and international travel receipts, having suitably adjusted the official export series for re‐exports and corrected the two data series for trend. There is some support for the view that export receipts are more unstable than tourism receipts. Although exports are generally more unstable over the whole period, they were relatively more unstable in the early to mid‐1970s during a period of international instability. Tourism receipts, on the other hand, were relatively more unstable in the 1980s, partly as a result of world recession, but also because of structural problems in the tourism industry in Singapore. Also finds that the development of the tourism sector in Singapore has exerted a net destabilizing effect on total exports of goods and services.

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the ex ante projected future trajectories of real tourism exports and relative tourism export prices of the EU-15, conditional on expert real gross domestic product growth forecasts for the global economy provided by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development for the years 2013-2017.

To this end, the global vector autoregression (GVAR) framework is applied to a comprehensive panel data set ranging from 1994Q1 to 2013Q3 for a cross-section of 45 countries. This approach allows for interdependencies between countries that are assumed to be equally affected by common global developments.

In line with economic theory, growing global tourist income combined with decreasing relative destination price ensures, in general, increasing tourism demand for the politically and macroeconomically distressed EU-15. However, the conditional forecast increases in tourism demand are under-proportional for some EU-15 member countries.

Rather than simply relying on increases in tourist income, the low price competitiveness of the EU-15 member countries should also be addressed by tourism planners and developers in order to counter the rising competition for global market shares and ensure future tourism export earnings.

One major contribution of this research is that it applies the novel GVAR framework to a research question in tourism demand analysis and forecasting. Furthermore, the analysis of the ex ante conditionally projected future trajectories of real tourism exports and relative tourism export prices of the EU-15 is a novel aspect in the tourism literature since conditional forecasting has rarely been performed in this discipline to date, in particular, in combination with ex ante forecasting.

This study aims to examine the relationship between tourism development and economic growth while considering exports simultaneously. Governments in many countries have been developing and deploying strategies to attract tourism receipts as a means for economic growth. However, assessing the potential impact of tourism on economic growth among large economies is still in its infancy.

Using a vector error correction model framework, this study examines the relationship among exports, gross domestic product (GDP) and tourism receipts (including international tourism receipts and domestic tourism receipts in two separate models) with macro data that covers two recent decades (1994-2013) in China.

The empirical findings confirm the existence of a long-term equilibrium relationship in each of these two tri-variate models. The empirical findings reveal that (1) both tourism-led-growth and export-led-growth hypotheses are supported, (2) the growth rate of tourism receipts exhibit a higher relevance with GDP growth than export growth and (3) the growth rate of international tourism shows a higher relevance with GDP growth than domestic tourism growth.

Using macroeconomic data collected by the Chinese government, the current study employs an advanced econometric methodology to explore the potential benefits of tourism on economic growth in China.

This paper aims to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the trade of goods and services in Spain.

This paper uses monthly trade data at the product, region and firm level.

The COVID-19 crisis has led to the sharpest collapse in the Spanish trade of goods and services in recent decades. The containment measures adopted to arrest the spread of the virus have caused an especially intense fall of trade in services. The large share of transport equipment, capital goods, products that are consumed outdoors (i.e., outdoor goods) and tourism in Spanish exports has made the COVID-19 trade crisis more intense in Spain than in the rest of the European Union.

The nature of the collapse suggests that trade in goods can recover swiftly when the health crisis ends. However, COVID-19 may have a long-term negative impact on the trade of services that rely on the movement of people.

It contributes to understand how COVID-19 has affected the trade in goods and services in Spain.

Uzbekistan, a former Soviet Union state whose population is 96% Muslim, is aiming to penetrate the global halal market. Since 2016, its government has been committed to establishing a halal economy, purportedly comprising halal product exports and inbound halal tourism services. Given that a conducive halal ecosystem is a critical condition for creating and sustaining a viable halal economy, the current condition of the halal industry in the country must be diagnosed. For this purpose, we developed a diagnostic framework based on the halal principles and the Viable System Model (VSM) to identify the existing players and stakeholders in the halal industry ecosystem in Uzbekistan and their respective roles and functions, as well as the information flows amongst them.

The study utilised the qualitative methodology with the data gathered mainly from in-depth interviews with industry experts and consumers in Uzbekistan.

The findings revealed that the country has considerable potential to develop its halal tourism market due to its beautiful landscape, rich history and cultural heritage, which is supported by a full-fledged development policy. Uzbekistan's industrial sector exhibits substantial readiness to serve the Muslim market; however, the country lacks a specific policy for the development of the halal manufacturing export industry.

Our findings generate emergent themes that are relevant to the operations and future viability of halal industry of a Muslim country in a transitioning economy. These emerging themes further strengthened existing conceptualisation of the Viable System Model in terms of the elements of the environment and the function of policymaking in contributing toward a system's viability. Implications of the findings and suggestions for future research are also provided.

In its efforts to foster tourism development the state has the choice of either giving direct grants or stimulating specipc investments and promoting co‐operation through low‐interest loans. In either case, the effort is aimed to improve the supply and preserve the competitive capacity of destinations. Public funds also flow into national and regional tourism organisations (NTOs and RTOs) established to co‐ordinate and market tourism products and destinations. State promotion of tourism constitute an intervention in the market mechanism which needs to be expressly justified in a market economy context. Market failure, transaction costs and the growth‐stimulating effect of promoting innovation and knowledge are the fundamental conditions for state intervention (necessary conditions), even though by themselves they are not sufficient to justify intervention. This also requires a cost/benefit analysis: a state measure is advantageous only when it causes an improvement in the overall economic welfare (sufficient condition).

This article evaluates contemporary Cuban economic policy and development prospects after a decade of market experimentation in a socialist context. An introductory historical review assesses the successes and failures of Cuban development policy in the 1970s and 1980s and describes the staggering dimensions of the economic crisis triggered by the abrupt disruption of Cuba's relations with the Soviet bloc in 1989–1991. The next section, “To the market in the 1990s,” examines Cuban efforts to stabilize the economy in the early 1990s while maintaining a strong social safety net. The historic policy shift toward limited market liberalization within a state-dominated economy is analyzed and the key market concessions described. The economic turnaround of the late 1990s and Cuban macroeconomic and industrial performance over the past decade are then examined. The final part of the article evaluates the coherence and sustainability of Cuba's emerging economic model and assesses prospects for the survival of some form of Cuban socialism.

In response to its profound economic crisis, in the 1990s Cuba adopted a tourism‐based development strategy. As an approach to development, tourism has been both heralded and critiqued. One concern is that for less diversified economies it has large imported input requirements. The purpose of this paper is to analyze Cuba's efforts to address this weakness.

The paper draws on interviews conducted with Cuban policy makers and researchers working in the area of tourism, and one hotelier operating in Cuba. Also, extensive secondary data collected while conducting the fieldwork in Cuba and relevant existing literature are reviewed.

It is found that Cuba has increased significantly its reliance on domestic production for inputs for its tourist sector since the mid‐1990s, thereby reducing its dependence on imported inputs.

These findings suggest that, by reconfiguring domestic production to provide inputs for the tourism sector, foreign exchange leakages typically associated with tourist development in less diversified economies can be diminished and that it can provide an infusion of foreign exchange and investment that benefits the local economy.

This case presents an alternative to the neoliberal approach to policy making in the Global South, one that has the potential to avoid some of the negative social and economic consequences of that approach.

In addition to highlighting the alternative represented by Cuba's approach to tourism, the paper evaluates the extent to which it approximated the novel strategy of development proposed by the neostructuralists almost simultaneously. It concludes that Cuba's approach did approximate the neostructural model in a number of important ways.