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The aim of this paper is to provide a narrative review of previous research on tourism demand modelling and forecasting and potential future developments.

A narrative approach is taken in this review of the current body of knowledge.

Significant methodological advancements in tourism demand modelling and forecasting over the past two decades are identified.

The distinct characteristics of the various methods applied in the field are summarised and a research agenda for future investigations is proposed.

本文旨在对先前关于旅游需求建模和预测的研究进行叙述性回顾并对未来潜在发展进行展望。

本文采用叙述性回顾方法对当前知识体系进行了评论。

本文确认了过去二十年旅游需求建模和预测方法论方面的重要进展。

本文总结了该领域应用的各种方法的独特特征, 并对未来研究提出了建议。

El objetivo de este documento es ofrecer una revisión narrativa de la investigación previa sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros.

En esta revisión del marco actual de conocimientos sobre modelización y previsión de la demanda turística y los posibles desarrollos futuros,se adopta un enfoque narrativo.

Se identifican avances metodológicos significativos en la modelización y previsión de la demanda turística en las dos últimas décadas.

Se resumen las características propias de los diversos métodos aplicados en este campo y se propone una agenda de investigación para futuros trabajos.

Radical changes in consumer habits induced by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic suggest that the usual demand forecasting techniques based on historical series are questionable. This is particularly true for hospitality demand, which has been dramatically affected by the pandemic. Accordingly, we investigate the suitability of tourists’ activity on Twitter as a predictor of hospitality demand in the Way of Saint James – an important pilgrimage tourism destination.

This study compares the predictive performance of the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) time-series model with that of the SARIMA with an exogenous variables (SARIMAX) model to forecast hotel tourism demand. For this, 110,456 tweets posted on Twitter between January 2018 and September 2022 are used as exogenous variables.

The results confirm that the predictions of traditional time-series models for tourist demand can be significantly improved by including tourist activity on Twitter. Twitter data could be an effective tool for improving the forecasting accuracy of tourism demand in real-time, which has relevant implications for tourism management. This study also provides a better understanding of tourists’ digital footprints in pilgrimage tourism.

This study contributes to the scarce literature on the digitalisation of pilgrimage tourism and forecasting hotel demand using a new methodological framework based on Twitter user-generated content. This can enable hospitality industry practitioners to convert social media data into relevant information for hospitality management.

2019冠狀病毒病引致消費者習慣有根本的改變; 這些改變顯示，根據歷史序列而運作的慣常需求預測技巧未必是正確的。這不確性尤以受到大流行極大影響的酒店服務需求為甚。因此，我們擬探討、若把在推特網站上的旅遊活動視為聖雅各之路 (一個重要的朝聖旅遊聖地) 酒店服務需求的預測器，這會否是合適的呢?

本研究比較 SARIMA 時間序列模型與附有外生變數 (SARIMAX)模型兩者在預測旅遊及酒店服務需求方面的表現。為此，研究人員收集在推特網站上發佈的資訊，作為外生變數進行研究。這個樣本涵蓋於2018年1月至2022年9月期間110,456個發佈資訊。

研究結果確認了傳統的時間序列模型，若涵蓋推特網站上的旅遊活動，則其對旅遊需求方面的預測會得到顯著的改善。推特網站的數據，就改善預測實時旅遊需求的準確度，或許可成為有效的工具; 而這發現對旅遊管理會有一定的意義。本研究亦讓我們進一步瞭解朝聖旅遊方面旅客的數碼足跡。

現存文獻甚少探討朝聖旅遊的數字化，而本研究不但在這方面充實了有關的文獻，還使用了一個根據推特網站上使用者原創內容嶄新的方法框架，進行分析和探討。這會幫助酒店從業人員把社交媒體數據轉變為可供酒店管理之用的合宜資訊。

This study aims to determine the effects of lodging infrastructure development (LID) on Cordillera Administrative Region’s (CAR) environmental quality and natural resource management and its implication to globally responsible leadership. Specifically, this study sought to determine the contribution of LID to environmental deterioration and natural resource degradation in the CAR. As a result, a mathematical model is developed, which supports sustainability practices to maintain the environmental quality and natural resource management in CAR, Philippines.

This study used a descriptive research design using a mixed-methods approach. Self-structured interview and survey were used to gather the data. The population of this study involved three groups. There were 6.28% (34) experts in the field for the qualitative data, 70.24% (380) respondents for the quantitative data and 23.47% (127) from the lodging establishments. 120 respondents from the Department of Tourism – CAR (DOT-CAR) accredited hotels. Nonparametric and nonlinear regression analysis was used to process the data.

The effects of LID on the environmental quality and natural resource management in CAR as measured through carbon emission from liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), electricity and water consumption in the occupied guest rooms revealed a direct correlation between the LID. Findings conclude that the increase in tourist arrival is a trigger factor in the increase in LID in the CAR. The increase in LID implies a rise in carbon emission in the lodging infrastructure. Any increase in tourist arrivals increases lodging room occupancy; the increased lodging room occupancy contributes to carbon emissions. Thus, tourism trends contribute to the deterioration of the environmental quality and degradation of the natural resources in the CAR. A log-log model shows the percentage change in the average growth of tourist arrival and the percentage increase in carbon emissions. Establishments should observe standard room capacity to maintain the carbon emission of occupied lodging rooms at a minimum. Responsible leadership is a factor in the implementation of policy on standard room capacity.

The result of the study has some implications for the lodging businesses, the local government unit (LGU), the Department of Tourism (DOT) and the Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) in the CAR. The study highlights the contribution of the lodging establishments to CO₂ emission, which can degrade the quality of the environment, and the implication of responsible leadership in managing natural resources in the CAR. The direct inverse relationship between energy use and CO₂ emission in hotels indicates that increased energy consumption leads to environmental degradation (Ahmad et al., 2018). Therefore, responsible leadership among policymakers in the lodging and government sectors – LGU, DOT and DENR – should abound in the CAR. Benchmarking on the model embarked from this study can help in designing and/or enhancing the policy on room capacity standardization, considering the total area with its maximum capacity to keep the carbon emission at a lower rate. Furthermore, as a responsible leader in the community, one should create programs that regulate the number of tourists visiting the place to decrease the number of overnight stays. Besides, having the political will to implement reduced room occupancy throughout the lodging establishments in CAR can help reduce the carbon emissions from the lodging businesses. After all, one of the aims of the International Environment Protection Organization is to reduce CO₂ emissions in the tourism industry. Hence, responsible leadership in environmental quality preservation and sustainable natural resource management must help prevent and avoid greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Most studies about carbon emission in the environment tackle about carbon dioxide emitted by transportation and factories. This study adds to the insights on the existing information about the carbon emission in the environment from the lodging establishments through the use of LPG, electricity and water consumption in the occupied guest rooms. The findings of the study open an avenue for globally responsible leadership in sustaining environmental quality and preservation of natural resources by revisiting and amending the policies on the number of room occupancy, guidelines and standardization, considering the total lodging area with its maximum capacity to keep the carbon emission at a minimum, thus contributing to the lowering of GHG emissions from the lodging industry.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the onset of the conflict in Ukraine led to a sustained downturn in tourist arrivals (TA) in Russia. This paper aims to explore the influence of geopolitical risk (GPR) and other indices on TA over 1995–2023.

We employ a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to analyze the effects, capturing both the positive and negative shocks of these variables on TA.

Our research demonstrates that the NARDL model is more effective in elucidating the complex dynamics between macroeconomic factors and TA. Both an increase and a decrease in GPR lead to an increase in TA. A 1% negative shock in GPR leads to an increase in TA by 1.68%, whereas a 1% positive shock in GPR also leads to an increase in TA by 0.5%. In other words, despite the increase in GPR, the number of tourists coming to Russia increases by 0.5% for every 1% increase in that risk. Several explanations could account for this phenomenon: (1) risk-tolerant tourists: some tourists might be less sensitive to GPR or they might find the associated risks acceptable; (2) economic incentives: increased risk might lead to a depreciation in the local currency and lower costs, making travel to Russia more affordable for international tourists; (3) niche tourism: some tourists might be attracted to destinations experiencing turmoil, either for the thrill or to gain firsthand experience of the situation; (4) lagged effects: there might be a time lag between the increase in risk and the actual impact on tourist behavior, meaning the effects might be observed differently over a longer period.

Our study, employing the NARDL model and utilizing a dataset spanning from 1995 to 2023, investigates the impact of GPR, gross domestic product (GDP), real effective exchange rate (REER) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on TA in Russia. This research is unique because the dataset was compiled by the authors. The results show a complex relationship between GPR and TA, indicating that factors influencing TA can be multifaceted and not always intuitive.

This research focuses on analysing the effect of wine tourism on green product and process innovations developed by Spanish wineries. In addition, age, size and membership in a protected designation of origin (PDO) are introduced as control variables to increase the precision of the cause–effect relationship analysed.

The study proposes a conceptual model based on previous studies, which is tested using structural equations (partial least squares structural equation modelling [PLS-SEM]) with data collected from 202 Spanish wineries.

The research results show that wine tourism activity has a positive and significant influence on green product and process innovation.

The research contributes to the academic literature in several ways. First, the study advances knowledge and understanding of the benefits generated by wine tourism. Second, the research contributes to the literature that analyses the wine tourism–sustainability link, since it is predicted that this type of tourism can increase the capacity for green innovation. Third, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, there is no previous research that has analysed wine tourism as a catalytic variable for green innovation. Fourth, the proposed theoretical model has not been previously addressed in the academic literature, so the study represents an important advance in scientific knowledge.

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted global tourism, with international travel bearing the burden of restrictions. Domestic tourism has also faced substantial challenges. This paper aims to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on domestic tourism in Spain, focusing on travel from Madrid (the country’s capital) to other tourist destinations.

Mobile phone data has been used to study the evolution of tourist trips over the summers of 2019, 2020 and 2021. Regression models are used to explain the number of visitors at destinations.

The pandemic not only caused a drastic drop in tourist flows but also disrupted the overall pattern of the domestic flow system. Winning destinations were typically areas in proximity to Madrid and less densely populated destinations, while urban destinations were major losers. The preferences of domestic tourists varied notably by income group, but the decrease in trip volumes showed only marginal differences.

The paper demonstrates the potential of mobile phone data analysis to study the uneven impact of external shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, on tourist destinations. This approach considers spatial resilience heterogeneity within regions or provinces. By incorporating income information, the analysis introduces a social dimension to highly detailed spatial data, surpassing traditional studies conducted at the regional or national levels.

COVID-19大流行对全球旅游业产生了重大影响，国际旅行受到了限制的影响最为严重。国内旅游也面临着重大挑战。本文分析了COVID-19大流行对西班牙国内旅游的影响，重点关注从马德里（该国首都）到其他旅游目的地的旅行。

本研究使用移动电话数据研究了2019年、2020年和2021年夏季旅游出行的演变。采用回归模型解释了各目的地游客数量。

大流行不仅导致了旅游流量急剧下降，还扰乱了国内流动系统的总体模式。获胜的目的地通常是马德里附近的地区和人口较稀少的目的地，而城市目的地是主要的输家。国内游客的偏好在收入群体之间有明显差异，但旅行量的减少只显示出边际差异。

本文展示了使用移动电话数据分析研究外部冲击（如COVID-19大流行）对旅游目的地的不均匀影响的潜力。该方法考虑了区域或省份内的空间弹性异质性。通过整合收入信息，该分析为高度详细的空间数据引入了社会维度，超越了传统在区域或国家水平进行的研究。

The safety-related features of destinations affect tourist experiences and consequently influence destination choices. This research investigates the role of spatial profile and safety in the destination choices of digital nomads.

The study was designed using the multi-research method. To determine the spatial patterns of digital nomads' destination choices, Getis-Ord’s Gi is utilized, and spatial regression techniques are employed to ascertain the role of safety in these choices.

The main result of the research is that the most visited cities are spatially clustered in Asia, Europe and America. In this regard, digital nomads' destination choices exhibit similarities to those of traditional tourists. However, safety plays a significant role in destination preferences.

The research findings provide valuable insight into the relationship between digital nomads' travel preferences and safety, thereby serving as a significant source of information for destination marketing and management.

The qualitative approach was applied the discover the optimum answers to the research objectives, which are (1) to understand the cultural and hedonistic characteristics of the (Lanna) Songkran festival; and (2) to examine the dilemma between cultural rituals and hedonistic activity for tourism.

This study used a case study of the Songkran festival in Chiang Mai to examine the dilemma between cultural rituals and hedonism for tourism, which brings lost or misperceived cultural values and identities. The semi-structured interview (SSI) with senior locals and participant observation during the festival was conducted in Chiang Mai, Thailand, to obtain the in-depth phenomena of the existing celebration pattern at the festival.

The study findings show three crucial phenomena that explain characteristics of unsynchronized cultural rituals and hedonistic activities for tourism: (1) the parallel phenomenon between cultural values and celebration practice, (2) the movement of local culture and(3) the hedonistic characteristics of the festival.

The study extends the knowledge on the interplay phenomena between cultural festivals and tourism; also, the involved stakeholders, such as local communities, public sectors and private sectors, can use the study findings in creating policies for using cultural festivals to promote a destination and urban economic development that will minimise cultural values distort while increase tourism economic values.

This study was conducted qualitatively, including SSIs and participant observation at the Songkran festival in Chiang Mai. The study findings were analysed, based on the empirical data, into significant themes representing the characteristics of dilemma phenomena within the festival.

Discussions on tourism development address the urgent need to reduce the negative impacts of tourism on tourist destinations. Despite decades of trying to find potential ways to foster sustainability, however, current tourism development is still mainly driven by political interests and growth agendas. In spite of concepts intending to improve sustainable tourism development, negative dynamics, such as over-tourism and the exploitation of nature and local communities, dominate the current reality of tourism. This article focuses on the concept of degrowth as a potential solution for rethinking tourism policy and practices to ensure greater sustainability. Its aim is to explore the gap between these policies and the academic theories on instigating sustainable change, and the actual reality of the tourism industry, which is primarily driven by economic motivations such as growth.

To explore this dichotomy, this paper investigates the values of tourism lifestyle entrepreneurs. Small businesses are the most dominant group in the industry in terms of numbers. I contend that researching their viewpoint on current developmental trends could lead to valuable insights into how to tackle this gap between theory and reality. This paper also explores how the degrowth paradigm may promote sustainability in tourism, as well as the potential role that tourism lifestyle entrepreneurs could play in this development. The discussion is illustrated by a case study based on interviews with tourism entrepreneurs in Iceland.

The findings indicate that various tourism stakeholders have different approaches to growth, with many tourism lifestyle entrepreneurs tending to embrace degrowth practices by acting according to their value base, albeit sometimes unconsciously. This focus on aspects other than growth could potentially encourage tourism lifestyle entrepreneurs to contribute to sustainable development.

The examples discussed in this paper are locally limited and cannot be generalized due to the small size of the interviewed sample group. The scalability of individual entrepreneurs’ impact is limited due to their small size.

The actions and values applied by these tourism lifestyle entrepreneurs demonstrate how degrowth can be manifest on a small scale: growth is only embraced up to a certain limit, so it oes not exceed social and environmental capacities; from that point on, community well-being plays the key role. This study demonstrates the untapped knowledge tourism lifestyle entrepreneurs could provide to rethinking the tourism industry.

This study demonstrates the importance of shedding more light on ethical issues and values beyond growth in both academic and political discussions. Addressing tourism lifestyle entrepreneurs as smaller-scale actors of tourism degrowth could be a meaningful starting point for holistically rethinking tourism and give them a voice.

This research emphasizes untapped knowledge by acknowledging entrepreneurs and their potential for rethinking tourism development, concluding with recommendations for practice and policy.

This paper aims to develop a vision for the future identifying how digital nomadism affects the labor markets in the tourism industry.

The qualitative research method was used. The research data were collected using a semistructured interview form developed by the researcher. The sample consists of twenty people working in the tourism industry as tour guides, travel agency owners, accommodation sector employees and professional managers. The content analysis method was used to analyze the data.

It was found that employees in the tourism industry are familiar with digital nomadism, interact with employees working as digital nomads and may prefer the digital nomad way of working, while employees in the accommodation sector cannot work as digital nomads due to the nature of their work. It is shown that digital nomadism can be applied to tour guides and travel agency owners.

The data was collected from employees of the accommodation sector, travel agencies, tour guides and employees of the Turkish tourism labor market. It is recommended that the tourism labor markets adapt to the digitalized world and adjust their working models in this context.

This is one of the first studies on the impact of digital nomadism on the tourism labor markets.