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Article
Publication date: 5 December 2023

Dezhao Tang, Qiqi Cai, Tiandan Nie, Yuanyuan Zhang and Jinghua Wu

Integrating artificial intelligence and quantitative investment has given birth to various agricultural futures price prediction models suitable for nonlinear and non-stationary…

Abstract

Purpose

Integrating artificial intelligence and quantitative investment has given birth to various agricultural futures price prediction models suitable for nonlinear and non-stationary data. However, traditional models have limitations in testing the spatial transmission relationship in time series, and the actual prediction effect is restricted by the inability to obtain the prices of other variable factors in the future.

Design/methodology/approach

To explore the impact of spatiotemporal factors on agricultural prices and achieve the best prediction effect, the authors innovatively propose a price prediction method for China's soybean and palm oil futures prices. First, an improved Granger Causality Test was adopted to explore the spatial transmission relationship in the data; second, the Seasonal and Trend decomposition using Loess model (STL) was employed to decompose the price; then, the Apriori algorithm was applied to test the time spillover effect between data, and CRITIC was used to extract essential features; finally, the N-Beats model was selected as the prediction model for futures prices.

Findings

Using the Apriori and STL algorithms, the authors found a spillover effect in agricultural prices, and past trends and seasonal data will impact future prices. Using the improved Granger causality test method to analyze the unidirectional causality relationship between the prices, the authors obtained a spatial effect among the agricultural product prices. By comparison, the N-Beats model based on the spatiotemporal factors shows excellent prediction effects on different prices.

Originality/value

This paper addressed the problem that traditional models can only predict the current prices of different agricultural products on the same date, and traditional spatial models cannot test the characteristics of time series. This result is beneficial to the sustainable development of agriculture and provides necessary numerical and technical support to ensure national agricultural security.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 October 2023

Ahmet Galip Gençyürek

The crude oil market plays a key role in addressing the issue of energy economics. This paper aims to detect the causality relationship between the crude oil market and economy…

Abstract

Purpose

The crude oil market plays a key role in addressing the issue of energy economics. This paper aims to detect the causality relationship between the crude oil market and economy based on the financial system.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper used the static and dynamic Hatemi-J Bootstrap Toda–Yamamoto and Diebold–Yilmaz connectedness index. The Hatemi-J Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto approach allows researchers to use nonstationary data and that method is robust to nonnormal distribution and heteroscedasticity. The Diebold–Yilmaz connectedness index model provides researchers to detect the power of connectedness besides linkage direction. The analyzed period is the span from January 3, 2005 to October 3, 2022.

Findings

The results show bidirectional causality in the full sample but unidirectional causality before and after the 2008 financial crisis. During the 2008 financial crisis period and the COVID-19 period, there was a bidirectional and unidirectional causality, respectively. The connectedness approach indicates that the crude oil market affects financial stress through investors’ risk preferences.

Research limitations/implications

The Diebold–Yilmaz spillover index model is based on vector autoregression methods with a stationarity precondition. However, some of the five dimensions that constitute the financial stress index (FSI) are nonstationary in level. Therefore, the authors takes the first difference of the nonstationary data.

Practical implications

The linkage between the crude oil market and the FSI provides useful information for investors and policymakers. For instance, this paper indicates that an investor wanted to forecast future value of the crude oil (financial stress) should consider the current and past values of financial stress (crude oil). Moreover, policymaker should consider the crude oil market (FSI) to make a policy proposal for financial system (crude oil market).

Originality/value

Recently, indicators of economic activity levels (economic policy uncertainty, implied volatility index) have begun to be considered to analyze the relationship between energy and the economy but very little is known in the literature about the leading and lagging roles of data in subsample periods and the linkage channel. The other originality of this research is using the new econometric approaches.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 14 December 2023

Mohd Nadeem Bhat and Mohd Hammad Naeem

The study aims to find the synchronization between foreign agriculture investment (FAI) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to agriculture as classified by the Food…

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to find the synchronization between foreign agriculture investment (FAI) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) related to agriculture as classified by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The study tries to find such an association in India over 2 decades from 2001.

Design/methodology/approach

The Toda-Yamamoto Granger using the M-Wald test for the non-causality procedure is applied to find the synchronization. Stationarity is tested using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Phillips-Perron and Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (KPSS) tests. The Johanson methodology with MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis P-value is employed for the Cointegration test.

Findings

The empirical results indicate that the FAI Granger cause SDG2 “Zero hunger” and “Overall sustainability”, but SDG13 “Climate Change”, SDG6 “Clean water and sanitation”, SDG12 “Responsible production and consumption” and SDG15 “Life on Land” granger cause global investments. Notwithstanding, SDG5 “Gender equality” and SDG14 “Life below water” found no-way causality with FAI.

Practical implications

Host governments should prioritize sector-level sustainable development, notably agricultural SDGs, to attract global investments. Foreign agriculture investment is influenced differently by various SDGs; thus, policymakers should concentrate on specific agricultural SDGs to enhance the flow of capital into the agriculture sector. Global investors should take sustainability into account while framing foreign investment plans, and the supra-national organization may consider global agricultural investments while addressing the problems related to global food security.

Originality/value

The distinguishing feature of the study is that SDGs classified by the FAO from a global investment perspective have not been studied so far.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 August 2022

Olufemi Gbenga Onatunji

The current wave of decreasing electricity supply to meet the immediate demand of the populace is influencing not only economic growth but also the industrial productivity of the…

Abstract

Purpose

The current wave of decreasing electricity supply to meet the immediate demand of the populace is influencing not only economic growth but also the industrial productivity of the ECOWAS sub-region. In this context, this paper investigates the long-run and causal relationships between electricity consumption and industrial output in selected ECOWAS countries over the period 1971–2017.

Design/methodology/approach

The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing approach is employed to determine the existence of relationships among the variables. The causal nexus between electricity consumption and industrial output is examined using both the Toda-Yamamoto causality test and the bootstrap-corrected causality technique.

Findings

The long run results indicated that increasing electricity supply enhances industrial output only in Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, Gambia, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. Furthermore, the causality test results confirmed the presence of all four hypotheses in this study, but the two causality tests agree, particularly in the evidence of growth and neutrality hypotheses. In the cases of Benin, Burkina Faso, Gambia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone, a unilateral causality running from electricity consumption to industrial output is found. However, no evidence of causality between electricity consumption and industrial production has been confirmed in Cote d'Ivoire, Guinea Bissau, Liberia and Niger.

Practical implications

The relevant energy stakeholders in the subregion need to reprioritize their policy framework to focus more on the electricity sector of their economies since electricity consumption is identified as an important driver of industrial growth in the West African countries.

Originality/value

This is the first study to provide a comparative and country-specific investigation of the nexus between electricity consumption and industrial output in Africa, particularly in the West African region.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 February 2024

Joseph David, Awadh Ahmed Mohammed Gamal, Mohd Asri Mohd Noor and Zainizam Zakariya

Despite the huge financial resources associated with oil, Nigeria has consistently recorded poor growth performance. Therefore, this study aims to examine how corruption and oil…

Abstract

Purpose

Despite the huge financial resources associated with oil, Nigeria has consistently recorded poor growth performance. Therefore, this study aims to examine how corruption and oil rent influence Nigeria’s economic performance during the 1996–2021 period.

Design/methodology/approach

Various estimation techniques were used. These include the bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds-testing, dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), the fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and the canonical cointegration regression (CCR) estimators and the Toda–Yamamoto causality.

Findings

The bounds testing results provide evidence of a cointegrating relationship between the variables. In addition, the results of the ARDL, DOLS, CCR and FMOLS estimators demonstrate that oil rent and corruption have a significant positive impact on growth. Further, the results indicate that human capital and financial development enhance economic growth, whereas domestic investment and unemployment rates slow down long-term growth. Additionally, the causality test results illustrate the presence of a one-way causality from oil rent to economic growth and a bi-directional causal relationship between corruption and economic growth.

Originality/value

Existing studies focused on the effects of either oil rent or corruption on growth in Nigeria. Little attention has been paid to the exploration of how the rent from oil and the pervasiveness of corruption contribute to the performance of the Nigerian economy. Based on the outcome of this study, strategies and policies geared towards reducing oil dependence and the pervasiveness of corruption, enhancing human capital and financial development and reducing unemployment are recommended.

Details

Journal of Money Laundering Control, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1368-5201

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 October 2023

Aadil Amin, Asif Tariq and Masroor Ahmad

The principal aim of this study is to examine the relationship between financial development and income inequality in India using the financial Kuznets curve (FKC) hypothesis.

Abstract

Purpose

The principal aim of this study is to examine the relationship between financial development and income inequality in India using the financial Kuznets curve (FKC) hypothesis.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the Toda–-Yamamoto causality test to investigate the long-run and short-run relationship and causality between financial development and income inequality. In addition, this study employs a principal component analysis (PCA) to construct a comprehensive financial development index.

Findings

The study found a long-run relationship between financial development and income inequality in India for the period under consideration. Trade is found to improve the income distribution, while inflation worsens income distribution. Moreover, the empirical results revealed a feedback causality between financial development and income inequality. The study results confirm an inverted U-shaped relationship between financial sector development indicators and income inequality, thus validating the FKC hypothesis for the Indian economy.

Research limitations/implications

The study draws attention of the government and policymakers, urging them to focus on building a strong financial sector by improving its efficiency. This, in turn, will lead to enhanced financial stability and a reduction in income inequality. They should prioritise the development of high-quality and sustainable financial products and services to ensure the robust growth of the financial sector.

Originality/value

To the best of our knowledge, this study is the latest of its kind to empirically test the financial development on income inequality and the FKC hypothesis simultaneously for the Indian economy using financial proxy variables from financial institutions (FIs) and financial markets (FMs) for the measurement of financial depth.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 July 2023

Ibrahim Abdulhamid Danlami

This study aims to intend to investigate the dynamic causality and asymmetric relationships between corruption and economic growth of Nigeria.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to intend to investigate the dynamic causality and asymmetric relationships between corruption and economic growth of Nigeria.

Design/methodology/approach

Toda–Yamamoto (TY) Dynamic Causality Test and Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (NARDL) were used for the estimations, for the period 1984–2018.

Findings

The result reveals the existence of bidirectional causality between control of corruption and economic growth, Similarly, in both the short run and long run, corruption can affect economic growth and economic growth can as well affects corruption.

Research limitations/implications

Findings of the research are limited to Nigeria whose data were used, based on TY causality test and NARDL as the econometrics techniques applied, for a period 1984–2018.

Practical implications

For a meaningful progress to be recorded in Nigeria in terms of economic growth, the country must device some means for strengthen the control of corruption.

Originality/value

The study was able to prove empirically, the existence of not only causality between corruption and economic growth but also asymmetric effect of corruption on economic growth and that of economic growth on corruption in both the long run and short run, as against the previous studies that are lopsided on the effect of corruption on economic growth only.

Details

Journal of Financial Crime, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1359-0790

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 March 2023

Şerif Canbay, İnci Oya Coşkun and Mustafa Kırca

This study investigates if the causal relationships between the exchange rates and selected inbound markets’ tourism demand are temporary or permanent, and compares market…

Abstract

Purpose

This study investigates if the causal relationships between the exchange rates and selected inbound markets’ tourism demand are temporary or permanent, and compares market reactions in Türkiye.

Design/methodology/approach

Tourism demand is examined with a regional approach, focusing on the geographical markets, namely Europe, Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) members and Asian countries, as the top inbound tourism markets, in addition to the total number of inbound tourists to Türkiye. Granger, frequency-domain causality, asymmetric Toda–Yamamoto, and asymmetric frequency-domain causality tests were employed to investigate and compare markets on exchange rate–tourism demand relationship for 2008M01-2020M02.

Findings

The results indicate that exchange rates affect European tourism demand both in the short and long run. The meaning of this Frequency Domain Causality (FDC) analysis finding shows that the exchange rate has both permanent and temporary effects on European tourists. The relationships are statistically insignificant for CIS members and Asian countries. The exchange rates also permanently affect total inbound tourism demand, but the independent variable has no short-run (temporary) effects on total demand. Asymmetric causality tests confirmed a permanent causality relationship from the positive and negative components of exchange rates to the positive and negative components of European and total tourism demand.

Originality/value

The Granger causality test provides information on the presence of a causal relation, while the FDC test, an extended version of Granger causality, enlightens the short- (temporary) and long-run (permanent) relationships and allows for analyzing the duration of the impact. In addition, asymmetric causality relationships are also investigated in the study. Besides, this study is the first in the literature to examine the relationship between tourism demand and the exchange rate regionally (continentally) for Türkiye.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 11 August 2023

Mohammad Rifat Rahman, Md. Mufidur Rahman and Roksana Akter

This study aims to investigate the interplay between renewable energy development, unemployment and GDP growth within Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The research…

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Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the interplay between renewable energy development, unemployment and GDP growth within Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The research underscores the significant role of renewable energy plays in stimulating economic growth and mitigating unemployment, offering crucial policy insights for sustainable growth in South Asia.

Design/methodology/approach

Utilizing the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) framework and Toda Yamamoto causality through the vector autoregressive (VAR) approach, the study analyzes the long-term and short-term impacts of these variables from 1990 to 2019.

Findings

This study reveals a significant co-integration among renewable energy consumption, unemployment and GDP growth in selected South Asian countries. The long-term estimation shows renewable energy consumption influences negatively economic progression in Bangladesh, with no notable correlation with unemployment. In contrast, Sri Lanka demonstrates an optimal relationship among all the variables. Short-run assessments reveal a significant positive relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in India, while an inverse relationship is evident in Pakistan. Moreover, the relationship between unemployment and economic progression, the result shows a negative and significant relationship in India and Sri Lanka.

Research limitations/implications

The study emphasizes the need for policy development concerning renewable energy development, unemployment reduction and sustainable economic growth in South Asia. While limitations exist, future research can expand upon this work by incorporating varied data, additional countries or alternative modeling techniques.

Originality/value

This research offers a unique exploration into the multidimensional impacts of renewable energy consumption, unemployment and economic growth in the South Asian context, an area previously unexplored in such depth.

Details

Arab Gulf Journal of Scientific Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-9899

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 June 2023

Shahid Bashir and Tabina Ayoub

This paper is an attempt to re-examine the validity of the Twin Deficit Hypothesis in the Indian economy, which is characterised by mounting inequality and liquidity constraints…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper is an attempt to re-examine the validity of the Twin Deficit Hypothesis in the Indian economy, which is characterised by mounting inequality and liquidity constraints. The authors augment the econometric analysis with two important mediating variables, exchange rate and trade openness, to analyse their impact on current account deficit.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors have used a ground-breaking asymmetric cointegration technique proposed by Shin et al. (2014) to investigate the short-run and long-run asymmetric nexus between gross fiscal deficit and current account deficit. In addition, the study has used asymmetric dynamic multipliers to see the dynamics of nonlinear adjustment from disequilibrium in the short run to equilibrium in the long run. The study has also used generalised impulse response functions to check the robustness of our cointegration results.

Findings

Using annual time series data from 1970 to 2018, the empirical exercise validates the presence of asymmetries in the Twin Deficit Hypothesis for the Indian economy. This study's robust findings demonstrate that the two deficits are asymmetrically related in the long run. The authors also found that exchange rate asymmetrically affects current account deficit thus validating the asymmetric J-curve phenomenon. From the causality analysis, the authors infer that there is a weak unidirectional causality running from fiscal deficit to current account deficit.

Research limitations/implications

Fiscal deficit may cause current account deficit via changes in other macroeconomic variables that were not taken care of in this study. Therefore, the estimation techniques used in the present study might suffer from the issue of omitted-variable bias. Further research should include other macroeconomic variables where the twin deficit nexus is also influenced by other relevant variables. This will help in disentangling the indirect transmissions by which fiscal deficit translates into current account deficit.

Practical implications

The results from our econometric exercise strongly suggest that the twin deficits are asymmetrically related. From a policy perspective, the asymmetric twin deficit nexus offers strong policy implications for the development of policies that are flexible enough to respond to shifts in internal and external sector dynamics. While framing the mechanism of fiscal prudence, policymakers in emerging countries like India must take into account the regime-changing behaviour of twin deficits.

Originality/value

The present paper is a significant contribution to the existing body of literature by being the first study in India which has analysed the Twin Deficits phenomenon in a nonlinear framework with the incorporation of asymmetric exchange rate dynamics in the model.

Details

Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1026-4116

Keywords

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