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The purpose of this paper is to assess the change in the Italian and Spanish wage polarization degree in a time of economic crisis, taking into account the factors affecting labor force heterogeneity. Gender differences in the evolution of social fractures are considered by carrying out the analysis separately for males and females.

The approach by Palacios-Gonzánlez and García-Fernández (2012) on polarization is applied to the microdata provided by the EU Living Conditions Surveys (2007, 2010 and 2012). According to Palacios-Gonzánlez and García-Fernández’s approach, polarization is generated by two tendencies that contribute to the generation of social tension: the homogeneity or cohesion within group and the heterogeneity between groups. The following labor force characteristics are considered: gender, level of education, type of contract, occupational status and job status.

The results for Italy reveal a higher increase of polarization for women than for men from the perspective of the type of contract. In Spain, the wage polarization of women also increases more intensively compared to men from the perspectives of level of education, job status and occupational status, while in Italy the reduction of the wage polarization index by level of education can be related, above all, to an increase in overqualification of women.

While the empirical literature on polarization has made considerable investigation into employment and job polarization, this paper explores the rather less explored matter of wage polarization. Furthermore, particular attention is paid to the impact on polarization of the Great Recession.

Poverty dynamics and the ability of the Italian welfare system to reduce poverty are investigated by using the 1991‐1995 panel of the Bank of Italy’s Survey of Household Income and Wealth. Households most exposed to poverty live in the South, have a larger size, a young or female head, with a low educational level or a discontinuous work profile. The dynamic and static effectiveness (in terms of poverty reduction) of social transfers is analysed, as well as the factors affecting exclusion from the safety net. A closer look is taken at the effects of a minimum income guarantee in the experimental phase in Italy.

The current economic crisis has significantly increased unemployment, showing higher persistence than expected. However, since microdata from household surveys are issued with delay, they do not allow a prompt analysis of the impact of the economic cycle on households’ living conditions. The purpose of this paper is to propose a microsimulation methodology to achieve an evaluation of the impact of economic shocks in terms of household’s living conditions to guide policy makers.

The microsimulation technique developed in this paper is based on a nowcasting approach by using different sources of data and by taking into account a whole set of potential transitions across the different statuses of the labour market and the related changes in income. To validate this microsimulation method, the authors apply it to Italy, a country that has been deeply affected by the crisis.

Data have been drawn from the European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions Survey for Italy (IT SILC) and from the Labour Force Survey for Italy. The latter data allow us to take into account the changes in the labour market status of individuals due to economic shocks. The validation results support the capability of the model to simulate the effect of the cycle before actual data on income are available.

The results obtained would encourage the use of the suggested methodology to anticipate the effect of the economic cycle on household’s income therefore enabling the design of effective policies to sustain household income with positive practical and social implications.

Distinct from other microsimulation techniques the methodology proposed in this paper allows us to take into account behavioural effects and the change in the composition of employment and unemployment. Moreover, the authors contribute to the existing literature by considering a whole set of transitions across different labour market statuses and the related changes in income.