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Investigates the hypothesis of increased financial integration within the European Union (EU) based on an examination of covered and nominal interest rate differentials between March 1979 and August 1992 using cointegration and time‐varying parameter econometric techniques. Discovers evidence of increased financial integration from about 1983, although this is not universal for all countries within the EU. In particular the UK seems to have more financial independence, perhaps reflecting its non‐membership of the exchange rate mechanism, while Belgium is the country most closely tied to German monetary policy.

The purpose of this paper is to provide some insights into the exchange rate exposure of Australian stock returns.

Using a dynamic econometric approach that allows for both asymmetry and time‐varying risk exposures in both the exchange rate variable and the market variable, a large sample of Australian firms were tested over the period of January 2001 and December 2005. The data were analysed using three different classification methods, forming portfolios according to industry sector, size deciles, and censoring deciles.

Although the evidence of exchange rate exposure is limited across the sample of industries, the following were found: a time‐varying asymmetric effect primarily in the utilities sector, time‐varying exposure in the materials and energy sectors, and an asymmetric effect in the technology sector. Further, some time‐varying asymmetric exchange rate exposure was found across most size and censoring deciles and also substantial evidence of a positive asymmetric effect in the market beta across all three classification methods.

This approach varies from previous studies in this area that only allow for asymmetry and time variation in exchange rate exposures. The paper also examines the Australian stock market, a market which has not been extensively tested in this area of empirical research.

This paper aims to review the development of the Channel Islands exchange and assess the potential diversification benefits arising from the inclusion of this market in investment portfolios containing UK and French equity assets.

First this paper uses a simple stochastic drift, GARCH, and time‐varying parameter CAPM to model total returns indices. Second, it uses the unconditional and conditional means and variances from first stage as inputs into a mean‐variance portfolio quadratic optimisation problem: the solutions of which denote the optimal asset weights.

The evidence suggests that although there are serious difficulties in modelling time series from small illiquid equity markets owing to price‐rigidity, the limited benefits that do exist for the inclusion of Channel Islands assets in portfolios do so preferentially with Paris as opposed to London assets.

This paper extends the literature development policy options for small offshore markets and provides the first analysis of the Channel Islands.

This paper aims to examine the stability of the currency demand function for India with private consumption expenditure, tax–gross domestic product ratio and deposit rate as explanatory variables for the period 1996:1 to 2014:4. Additionally, this paper also tries to detect the presence of endogenous financial innovation in the currency demand function.

For the theoretical foundation of the study, this paper has used a modified version of money-in-the-utility function. To examine the stability of currency demand function empirically, seasonal cointegration technique developed by HEGY (1990) and EGHL (1993) was applied. Finally, to detect the presence of endogenous financial innovation in the currency demand equation, the Gurley and Shaw (1960) hypothesis was tested by presenting the currency demand equation in a state–space form.

The empirical findings show that there is the absence of long-run cointegrationg relationship among the variables at the zero and annual frequency; however, there is evidence of a relationship among the variables at the biannual frequency. Moreover, the time-varying coefficient of deposit rate elasticity, used to test the Gurley–Shaw hypothesis, suggests that innovations in financial markets, especially improvements in the payment technology, raise the deposit-rate elasticity, beginning from 2010 onward.

The empirical results of the paper suggest that there would be shrinkage of currency demand in future. From the monetary policy angle, the Reserve Bank of India needs to adapt adequately to a situation of shrinking demand for currency.

Apart from using seasonally unadjusted data to examine currency demand function for India, this study, for the first time, and to the best of the authors’ knowledge, tries to test the evidence of financial innovation in India by testing the Gurley–Shaw hypothesis. The findings of the study will have significant implication in the planning of the issue and distribution of currency in the fast-changing economic environment.

The authors propose the information matrix test to assess the constancy of mean and variance parameters in vector autoregressions (VAR). They additively decompose it into several orthogonal components: conditional heteroskedasticity and asymmetry of the innovations, and their unconditional skewness and kurtosis. Their Monte Carlo simulations explore both its finite size properties and its power against i.i.d. coefficients, persistent but stationary ones, and regime switching. Their procedures detect variation in the autoregressive coefficients and residual covariance matrix of a VAR for the US GDP growth rate and the statistical discrepancy, but they fail to detect any covariation between those two sets of coefficients.

The study investigates the effectiveness of government policies to mitigate the impact of a pandemic. The study adopts the small open economy of Nigeria for the following reasons. First, Nigeria is the largest economy in SSA. Second, Nigeria was also significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The study employed the time-varying structural autoregressive (TVSVAR) model to control for the potential asymmetry in fiscal variables and to control for the shift in the structural shift, following a macroeconomic shock. As a form of robustness, the study also implements the time-varying Granger causality to formally assess the temporal instability of the variable of interest.

The results show that an oil price shock is an important source of macroeconomic instability in Nigeria. Importantly, the results indicate that the effects of fiscal policy are strongly time varying. Specifically, the results show that fiscal policy helps to stabilize the economy, (i.e. they help to reduce inflation and spur output growth) following macroeconomic shock. Further, the Granger test shows that fiscal policy helped to spur growth in Nigeria. The research and policy implications are discussed.

The study accounts for the time-varying effects of fiscal policy.

This paper shows that the parsimoniously time-varying methodology of Callot and Kristensen (2015) can be applied to factor models. We apply this method to study macroeconomic instability in the United States from 1959:1 to 2006:4 with a particular focus on the Great Moderation. Models with parsimoniously time-varying parameters are models with an unknown number of break points at unknown locations. The parameters are assumed to follow a random walk with a positive probability that an increment is exactly equal to zero so that the parameters do not vary at every point in time. The vector of increments, which is high dimensional by construction and sparse by assumption, is estimated using the Lasso. We apply this method to the estimation of static factor models and factor-augmented autoregressions using a set of 190 quarterly observations of 144 US macroeconomic series from Stock and Watson (2009). We find that the parameters of both models exhibit a higher degree of instability in the period from 1970:1 to 1984:4 relative to the following 15 years. In our setting the Great Moderation appears as the gradual ending of a period of high structural instability that took place in the 1970s and early 1980s.

In the past two decades, there has been a remarkable decline in inflation in both developed and developing countries, in sharp contrast to the period immediately preceding it. Interestingly, the behaviour of inflation in India broadly exhibits such a pattern. For much of the 1970s and 1980s, India experienced recurrent bouts of high inflation together with sub‐par economic performance. Since the 1990s the inflation record has been far better. The purpose of this paper is to answer an important question about what ultimately brought on this improved economic outcome.

A time‐varying parameter model for inflation is proposed which nests all the plausible explanations. The time variation in parameters is modelled as driftless random walks, and is estimated using the median unbiased estimator. The median unbiased estimate helps in addressing the pile‐up problem, which arise if variances of the state specification are small. In such cases the maximum likelihood estimates are biased towards zero. Kalman Filter algorithm is used to obtain the time path of the parameters of the reduced form equation.

The estimated time paths of the reaction function coefficients suggest gradual changes in the rule coefficients. It has been found that while better monetary policy and structural change have played a non‐trivial role, good luck and exchange rate regime have played a major role in the moderation of inflation in the 1990s. This interpretation suggests that to prevent a resurgence of 1970s‐style inflation, the central bank should reinforce as much as possible its commitment to low inflation by institutional, operational, and rhetorical means. Otherwise, sooner or later, luck will dry out and high inflation could return.

A time‐varying parameter model for inflation in India is proposed which nests the various plausible explanations for moderate inflation in the recent decade. Most empirical and theoretical studies on inflation dynamics have concentrated on developed economies. This paper pays attention to the international dimension of the issue. The reduced form model is estimated using time‐varying parameter estimation technique.

An identification scheme to identify interconnected discrete-time (DT) varying systems.

The purpose of this paper is the identification of interconnected discrete time varying systems. The proposed technique permits the division of global system to many subsystems by building a vector observation of each subsystem and then using the gradient method to identify the time-varying parameters of each subsystem. The convergence of the presented algorithm is proven under a given condition.

The effectiveness of the proposed technique is then shown with application to a simulation example.

In the past decade, there has been a renewed interest in interconnected systems that are multidimensional and composed of similar subsystems, which interact with their closest neighbors. In this context, the concept of parametric identification of interconnected systems becomes relevant, as it considers the estimation problem of such systems. Therefore, the identification of interconnected systems is a challenging problem in which it is crucial to exploit the available knowledge about the interconnection structure. For time-varying systems, the identification problem is much more difficult. To cope with this issue, this paper addresses the identification of DT dynamical models, composed by the interconnection of time-varying systems.

We analyze the interaction among the common and country-specific components for the inflation rates in 12 euro area countries through a factor model with time-varying parameters. The variation of the model parameters is driven by the score of the predictive likelihood, so that, conditionally on past data, the model is Gaussian and the likelihood function can be evaluated using the Kalman filter. The empirical analysis uncovers significant variation over time in the model parameters. We find that, over an extended time period, inflation persistence has fallen and the importance of common shocks has increased relatively to that of idiosyncratic disturbances. According to the model, the fall in inflation observed since the sovereign debt crisis is broadly a common phenomenon since no significant cross-country inflation differentials have emerged. Stressed countries, however, have been hit by unusually large shocks.