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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 30 January 2024

Christina Anderl and Guglielmo Maria Caporale

The article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time.

Abstract

Purpose

The article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper assesses time variation in monetary policy rules by applying a time-varying parameter generalised methods of moments (TVP-GMM) framework.

Findings

Using monthly data until December 2022 for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) and five countries with alternative monetary regimes (the US, Japan, Denmark, the Euro Area, Switzerland), we find that monetary policy has become more averse to inflation and more responsive to the output gap in both sets of countries over time. In particular, there has been a clear shift in inflation targeting countries towards a more hawkish stance on inflation since the adoption of this regime and a greater response to both inflation and the output gap in most countries after the global financial crisis, which indicates a stronger reliance on monetary rules to stabilise the economy in recent years. It also appears that inflation targeting countries pay greater attention to the exchange rate pass-through channel when setting interest rates. Finally, monetary surprises do not seem to be an important determinant of the evolution over time of the Taylor rule parameters, which suggests a high degree of monetary policy transparency in the countries under examination.

Originality/value

It provides new evidence on changes over time in monetary policy rules.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 December 2019

Nan Li and Liu Yuanchun

The purpose of this paper is to summarize different methods of constructing the financial conditions index (FCI) and analyze current studies on constructing FCI for China. Due to…

1244

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to summarize different methods of constructing the financial conditions index (FCI) and analyze current studies on constructing FCI for China. Due to shifts of China’s financial mechanisms in the post-crisis era, conventional ways of FCI construction have their limitations.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper suggests improvements in two aspects, i.e. using time-varying weights and introducing non-financial variables. In the empirical study, the author first develops an FCI with fixed weights for comparison, constructs a post-crisis FCI based on time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model and finally examines the FCI with time-varying weights concerning its explanatory and predictive power for inflation.

Findings

Results suggest that the FCI with time-varying weights performs better than one with fixed weights and the former better reflects China’s financial conditions. Furthermore, introduction of credit availability improves the FCI.

Originality/value

FCI constructed in this paper goes ahead of inflation by about 11 months, and it has strong explanatory and predictive power for inflation. Constructing an appropriate FCI is important for improving the effectiveness and predictive power of the post-crisis monetary policy and foe achieving both economic and financial stability.

Details

China Political Economy, vol. 2 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2516-1652

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 10 September 2021

Pham Dinh Long, Bui Quang Hien and Pham Thi Bich Ngoc

The paper aims to shed light on the effects of inflation on gold price and exchange rate in Vietnam by using time-varying cointegration.

1683

Abstract

Purpose

The paper aims to shed light on the effects of inflation on gold price and exchange rate in Vietnam by using time-varying cointegration.

Design/methodology/approach

Using cointegration techniques with fixed coefficient and time-varying coefficient, the study exams the impacts of inflation in models and compares the results through coefficient estimates.

Findings

A significant inflation impacts are found with the time-varying cointegration but not with the fixed coefficient cointegration models. Moreover, monetary policy affects exchange rate not only directly via its instruments as money supply and interest rate but indirectly via inflation. Also, interest rate is one of the determinants of gold price.

Originality/value

To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to use time-varying cointegration to analyze the impact of inflation on the gold price and exchange rate in Vietnam. Gold price and exchange rate fluctuations are always the essential and striking issues, which have been emphasized by economists and policymakers. In macroeconometric researches, cointegration models are often used to analyze the long-term relations between variables. Attentionally, applied models show a limitation when estimating coefficients are fixed. This characteristic might not really match with the data properties and the variation of the economy. Currently, time-varying cointegration models are emerging method to solve the above issue.

Details

Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, vol. 6 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2615-9821

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 10 February 2023

Junting Lin, Mingjun Ni and Huadian Liang

This study aims to propose an adaptive fractional-order sliding mode controller to solve the problem of train speed tracking control and position interval control under…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to propose an adaptive fractional-order sliding mode controller to solve the problem of train speed tracking control and position interval control under disturbance environment in moving block system, so as to improve the tracking efficiency and collision avoidance performance.

Design/methodology/approach

The mathematical model of information interaction between trains is established based on algebraic graph theory, so that the train can obtain the state information of adjacent trains, and then realize the distributed cooperative control of each train. In the controller design, the sliding mode control and fractional calculus are combined to avoid the discontinuous switching phenomenon, so as to suppress the chattering of sliding mode control, and a parameter adaptive law is constructed to approximate the time-varying operating resistance coefficient.

Findings

The simulation results show that compared with proportional integral derivative (PID) control and ordinary sliding mode control, the control accuracy of the proposed algorithm in terms of speed is, respectively, improved by 25% and 75%. The error frequency and fluctuation range of the proposed algorithm are reduced in the position error control, the error value tends to 0, and the operation trend tends to be consistent. Therefore, the control method can improve the control accuracy of the system and prove that it has strong immunity.

Originality/value

The algorithm can reduce the influence of external interference in the actual operating environment, realize efficient and stable tracking of trains, and ensure the safety of train control.

Details

Railway Sciences, vol. 2 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2755-0907

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 28 February 2019

Aymen Ben Rejeb and Mongi Arfaoui

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether Islamic stock indexes outperform conventional stock indexes, in terms of informational efficiency and risk, during the recent…

5005

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether Islamic stock indexes outperform conventional stock indexes, in terms of informational efficiency and risk, during the recent financial instability period.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper uses a state space model combined with a standard GARCH(1,1) specification while taking into account structural breakpoints. The authors allow for efficiency and volatility spillovers to be time-varying and consider break dates to locate periods of financial instability.

Findings

Empirical results show that Islamic stock indexes are more volatile than their conventional counterparts and are not totally immune to the global financial crisis. As regards of the informational efficiency, the results show that the Islamic stock indexes are more efficient than the conventional stock indexes.

Practical implications

Resulting evidence of this paper has several implications for international investors who wish to invest in Islamic and/or conventional stock markets. Policy makers and even academics and Sharias researchers should as well take preventive measures in order to ensure the stability of Islamic stock markets during turmoil periods. Overall, prudent risk management and precocious financial practices are relevant and crucial for both Islamic and conventional financial markets.

Originality/value

The originality of this study is performed by the use of time-varying models for volatility spillovers and informational efficiency. It considers structural break dates that think about the dynamic effect of informational flows on stock markets. The study was developed in a global framework using international data. The global analysis allows avoiding country specific effects.

Details

European Journal of Management and Business Economics, vol. 28 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2444-8494

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 July 2022

Yong Lee and Joon Hee Rhee

This study proposed an optimal model to examine the relationship between the Bitcoin price and six macroeconomic variables – the Bitcoin price, Standard and Poor's 500 volatility…

1783

Abstract

This study proposed an optimal model to examine the relationship between the Bitcoin price and six macroeconomic variables – the Bitcoin price, Standard and Poor's 500 volatility index, US treasury 10-year yield, US consumer price index, gold price and dollar index. It also examined the effectiveness of the vector error correction model (VECM) in analyzing the interrelationship among these variables. The authors employed the following approach: first, the authors sampled the period August 2010–February 2022. This is because Bitcoin achieved a market capitalization of more than US$1 tn over this period, gaining market attention and acceptance from retail, corporate and institutional investors. Second, the authors employed a VECM with the six macroeconomic variables. Finally, the authors expanded the long-run equilibrium relationship (time-invariant cointegration)-based VECM to develop a time-varying cointegration (TVC) VECM. The authors estimated the TVC VECM using the Chebyshev polynomial specification based on various information criteria. The results showed that the Bitcoin price can be modeled with the VECM (p = 1, r = 1). The TVC approach generated more explanatory power for Bitcoin pricing, indicating the effectiveness of the approach for modeling the long-run relationship between Bitcoin price and macroeconomic variables.

Details

Journal of Derivatives and Quantitative Studies: 선물연구, vol. 30 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1229-988X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 29 April 2021

Michał Mackiewicz

The purpose of the paper is to assess the fiscal sustainability of nine southern African countries that belong to the Southern African Development Community.

1292

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the paper is to assess the fiscal sustainability of nine southern African countries that belong to the Southern African Development Community.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the author performs a novel time-varying analysis of fiscal sustainability in southern African countries.

Findings

The authors found that in Zimbabwe and Namibia, the formal condition of solvency was not fulfilled, resulting in the explosive growth of debt during the recent slowdown. In contrast, Angola, Botswana and Malawi prove to run sustainable fiscal policies, and they were also fiscally invulnerable to the recent unfavourable economic developments in Africa. For the rest of the countries in the sample (Eswatini, Lesotho, South Africa and Zambia), the results are mixed.

Originality/value

In the existing literature, there is abundance of empirical evidence concerning fiscal sustainability in European and American countries. In contrast, there is strikingly little knowledge concerning this phenomenon in African countries. The authors tried to fill this gap using a novel, time-varying approach.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 18 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 2 November 2023

Oscar Claveria and Petar Sorić

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the adjustment of government redistributive policies in Scandinavian and Mediterranean countries following changes in income inequality…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the adjustment of government redistributive policies in Scandinavian and Mediterranean countries following changes in income inequality over the period 1980–2021.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors first modelled the time-varying dynamics between income inequality and redistribution and then used a non-linear framework to test for the existence of asymmetries and cointegration in their long-run relationship. The authors used two complementary measures of inequality – the share of total income accruing to top percentile income holders and the ratio of the share of total income accruing to top decile income holders divided by that accumulated by the bottom 50% – and computed redistribution as the difference between the two inequality indicators before and after taxes and transfers.

Findings

The authors found that the sign of the relationship between income inequality and redistribution is mostly positive and time-varying. Overall, the authors also found evidence that the impact of increases in inequality on redistributive measures is higher than that of decreases. Finally, the authors obtained a significant long-run relationship between both variables in all countries except Denmark and Spain. These results hold for both Scandinavian and Mediterranean countries.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to account for the potential existence of non-linearities and to examine the asymmetries in the adjustment of redistributive policies to increases in income inequality using alternative income inequality metrics.

Details

Applied Economic Analysis, vol. 32 no. 94
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2632-7627

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 March 2024

Anis Jarboui, Emna Mnif, Nahed Zghidi and Zied Akrout

In an era marked by heightened geopolitical uncertainties, such as international conflicts and economic instability, the dynamics of energy markets assume paramount importance…

Abstract

Purpose

In an era marked by heightened geopolitical uncertainties, such as international conflicts and economic instability, the dynamics of energy markets assume paramount importance. Our study delves into this complex backdrop, focusing on the intricate interplay the between traditional and emerging energy sectors.

Design/methodology/approach

This study analyzes the interconnections among green financial assets, renewable energy markets, the geopolitical risk index and cryptocurrency carbon emissions from December 19, 2017 to February 15, 2023. We investigate these relationships using a novel time-frequency connectedness approach and machine learning methodology.

Findings

Our findings reveal that green energy stocks, except the PBW, exhibit the highest net transmission of volatility, followed by COAL. In contrast, CARBON emerges as the primary net recipient of volatility, followed by fuel energy assets. The frequency decomposition results also indicate that the long-term components serve as the primary source of directional volatility spillover, suggesting that volatility transmission among green stocks and energy assets tends to occur over a more extended period. The SHapley additive exPlanations (SHAP) results show that the green and fuel energy markets are negatively connected with geopolitical risks (GPRs). The results obtained through the SHAP analysis confirm the novel time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) frequency connectedness findings. The CARBON and PBW markets consistently experience spillover shocks from other markets in short and long-term horizons. The role of crude oil as a receiver or transmitter of shocks varies over time.

Originality/value

Green financial assets and clean energy play significant roles in the financial markets and reduce geopolitical risk. Our study employs a time-frequency connectedness approach to assess the interconnections among four markets' families: fuel, renewable energy, green stocks and carbon markets. We utilize the novel TVP-VAR approach, which allows for flexibility and enables us to measure net pairwise connectedness in both short and long-term horizons.

Details

Arab Gulf Journal of Scientific Research, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-9899

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 July 2021

Matteo Foglia and Peng-Fei Dai

The purpose of this paper is to extend the literature on the spillovers across economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and cryptocurrency uncertainty indices.

2996

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to extend the literature on the spillovers across economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and cryptocurrency uncertainty indices.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses cross-country economic policy uncertainty indices and the novel data measuring the cryptocurrency price uncertainties over the period 2013–2021 to construct a sample of 946 observations and applies the time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model to do an empirical study.

Findings

The findings suggest that there are cross-country spillovers of economic policy uncertainty. In addition, the total uncertainty spillover between economic policies and cryptocurrency peaked in 2015 before gradually decreasing in the following periods. Concomitantly, the cryptocurrency uncertainty has acted as the “receiver.” More importantly, the authors found the predictive power of economic policy uncertainty to predict the cryptocurrency uncertainty index. This paper’s results hold robust when using alternative measurement of cryptocurrency policy uncertainty.

Originality/value

This study is the first research that deeply investigates the association between two uncertainty indicators, namely economic policy uncertainty and the cryptocurrency uncertainty index. We provide fresh evidence about the dynamic connectedness between country-level economic policy uncertainty and the cryptocurrency index. Our work contributes a new channel driving the variants of uncertainties in the cryptocurrency market.

Details

Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies, vol. 29 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2515-964X

Keywords

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