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Surrogate models are extensively used to substitute real models which are expensive to evaluate in the time-dependent reliability analysis. Normally, different surrogate models have different scopes of application. However, information is often insufficient for analysts to select the most appropriate surrogate model for a specific application. Thus, the result precited by individual surrogate model tends to be suboptimal or even inaccurate. Ensemble model can effectively deal with the above concern. This work aims to study the application of ensemble model for reliability analysis of time-independent problems.

In this work, a method of reliability analysis for time-dependent problems based on ensemble learning of surrogate models is developed. The ensemble of surrogate models includes Kriging, radial basis function, and support vector machine. The prediction is approximated by the weighted average model. The ensemble learning of surrogate models is updated by finding and adding the sample points with large prediction errors throughout the entire procedure.

The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by several examples. The results show that the ensemble of surrogate models can effectively propagate the uncertainty of time-varying problems, and evaluate the reliability with high prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.

This work proposes an adaptive learning framework for the uncertainty propagation of time-dependent problems based on the ensemble of surrogate models. Compared with individual surrogate models, the ensemble model not only saves the effort of selecting an appropriate surrogate model especially when the knowledge of unknown problem is lacking, but also improves the prediction accuracy and computational efficiency.

This paper aims to present a novel dynamic reliability model that considers the interval mixed uncertainty for the air-breathing hypersonic flight vehicle (AHFV) to guarantee flight safety and structural reliability.

Initially, the force condition of the fuselage is analyzed based on the longitudinal elastic model of an AHFV. Subsequently, a new high-efficiency dynamic reliability model is presented to describe the failure probability evolution of the fuselage structure. For the random uncertainty problem with interval distribution parameters, the interval PHI2 method of time-dependent reliability is used to obtain the time-dependent reliability interval of the AHFV. Finally, the key variables that affect the failure probability accumulation are determined, which provide an important reference for ensuring structural reliability and improving the life span of AHFVs.

It is demonstrated that the proposed reliability model can obtain more accurate dynamic reliability results for the fuselage, and it is confirmed the key variables that affect the failure probability accumulation. The results also provide an important reference for the reliability analysis of hypersonic vehicles.

The novelty of this work comes from the first application of the PHI2 method (considering the interval mixed uncertainty) in the AHFV and the development of a new reliability model for the entire body of AHFVs. The proposed analysis scheme is implemented on the dynamic model of the AHFV, which provides a more accurate reference for improving the structural reliability and life span of AHFVs.

The paper proposed a fast procedure for solving the reliability-based robust design optimization (RBRDO) by modifying the RBRDO formulation and transforming it into a series of RBRDO subproblems. Then for each subproblem, the objective function, constraint function and reliability index are approximated using Taylor series expansion, and their approximate forms depend on the deterministic design vector rather than the random vector and the uncertain estimation in the inner loop of RBRDO can be avoided. In this way, it can greatly reduce the evaluation number of performance function. Lastly, the trust region method is used to manage the above sequential RBRDO subproblems for convergence.

As is known, RBRDO is nested optimization, where the outer loop updates the design vector and the inner loop estimate the uncertainties. When solving the RBRDO, a large evaluation number of performance functions are needed. Aiming at this issue, the paper proposed a fast integrated procedure for solving the RBRDO by reducing the evaluation number for the performance functions. First, it transforms the original RBRDO problem into a series of RBRDO subproblems. In each subproblem, the objective function, constraint function and reliability index caused are approximated using simple explicit functions that solely depend on the deterministic design vector rather than the random vector. In this way, the need for extensive sampling simulation in the inner loop is greatly reduced. As a result, the evaluation number for performance functions is significantly reduced, leading to a substantial reduction in computation cost. The trust region method is then employed to handle the sequential RBRDO subproblems, ensuring convergence to the optimal solutions. Finally, the engineering test and the application are presented to illustrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed methods.

The paper proposes a fast procedure of solving the RBRDO can greatly reduce the evaluation number of performance function within the RBRDO and the computation cost can be saved greatly, which makes it suitable for engineering applications.

The standard deviation of the original objective function of the RBRDO is replaced by the mean and the reliability index of the original objective function, which are further approximated by using Taylor series expansion and their approximate forms depend on the deterministic design vector rather than the random vector. Moreover, the constraint functions are also approximated by using Taylor series expansion. In this way, the uncertainty estimation of the performance functions (i.e. the mean of the objective function, the constraint functions) and the reliability index of the objective function are avoided within the inner loop of the RBRDO.

This study aims to empirically explore several factors that encourage muzakki (zakat payers) to pay their zakat through institutions by elaborating on their extrinsic and intrinsic motivations as the composite factors regarding the attitude and intention improvement of muzakki. This study specifically studies zakat payment via digital means and categorizes the muzakki groups into two (urban and suburban) to be considered in the results.

Overall, this study gathers the data from 298 muzakki using a partial least squares technique the multigroup analysis to compare the analysis.

This study found that different sociodemographic aspects will result in varied performances of motivation in using technology between the two groups. Furthermore, positive preference aspects, such as muzakki’s attitude, can be a catalyst in improving their motivation to pay zakat through institutions.

The findings of this study can be used as a foundation to improve the technology-based services that will be more accessible and reachable. Provision of technical follow-ups regarding the utilization of technology, including community-based digital platform socializations, availability of online customer service that will respond to muzakki’s needs and synergy between stakeholders, are the primary obligations that a zakat institution must fulfill.

As far as the researchers are concerned, the studies focusing on the motivational factors and attitude of muzakki as an intervention in paying zakat via institutions are limited in numbers, especially studies on digital payment. In this study, however, classifying the groups into two will help gain a deeper understanding of this topic.

This paper aims to develop an efficient algorithm combining straightforward response surface functions with Monte Carlo simulation to conduct seismic reliability analysis in a systematical way.

The representative slip surfaces are identified and based on to calibrate multiple response surface functions with acceptable accuracy. The calibrated response surfaces are used to determine the yield acceleration in Newmark sliding displacement analysis. Then, the displacement-based limit state function is adopted to conduct seismic reliability analysis.

The calibrated response surface functions have fairly good accuracy in predicting the yield acceleration in Newmark sliding displacement analysis. The seismic reliability is influenced by such factors as PGA, spatial variability and threshold value. The proposed methodology serves as an effective tool for geotechnical practitioners.

The multiple sources of a seismic slope response can be effectively determined using the multiple response surface functions, which are easily implemented within geotechnical engineering.

External stakeholder risks (ESRs) caused by unfavorable behaviors hinder the success of project portfolios (PPs). However, due to complex project dependency and numerous risk causality in PPs, assessing ESRs is difficult. This research aims to solve this problem by developing an ESR-PP two-layer fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN) model.

A two-layer FBN model for evaluating ESRs with risk causality and project dependency is proposed. The directed acyclic graph (DAG) of an ESR-PP network is first constructed, and the conditional probability tables (CPTs) of the two-layer network are further presented. Next, based on the fuzzy Bayesian network, key variables and the impact of ESRs are assessed and analyzed by using GeNIe2.3. Finally, a numerical example is used to demonstrate and verify the application of the proposed model.

The proposed model is a useable and effective approach for ESR assessment while considering risk causality and project dependency in PPs. The impact of ESRs on PP can be calculated to determine whether to control risk, and the most critical and heavily contributing risks and project(s) in the developed model are identified based on this.

This study extends prior research on PP risk in terms of stakeholders. ESRs that have received limited attention in the past are explored from an interaction perspective in the PP domain. A new two-layer FBN model considering risk causality and project dependency is proposed, which can synthesize different dependencies between projects.

The purpose of this paper is to design a simple and accurate a-posteriori Lagrangian-based error estimator is developed for the class of backward differentiation formula (BDF) algorithms with variable time step size, and the adaptive time-stepping in BDF algorithms is demonstrated for efficient time-dependent simulations in fluid flow and heat transfer.

The Lagrange interpolation polynomial is used to predict the time derivative, and then the accurate primary result is obtained by the Gauss integral, which is applied to evaluate the local error. Not only the generalized formula of the proposed error estimator is presented but also the specific expression for the widely applied BDF1/2/3 is illustrated. Two essential executable MATLAB functions to implement the proposed error estimator are appended for practical applications. Then, the adaptive time-stepping is demonstrated based on the newly proposed error estimator for BDF algorithms.

The validation tests show that the newly proposed error estimator is accurate such that the effectivity index is always close to unity for both linear and nonlinear problems, and it avoids under/overestimation of the exact local error. The applications for fluid dynamics and coupled fluid flow and heat transfer problems depict the advantage of adaptive time-stepping based on the proposed error estimator for time-dependent simulations.

In contrast to existing error estimators for BDF algorithms, the present work is more accurate for the local error estimation, and it can be readily extended to practical applications in engineering with a few changes to existing codes, contributing to efficient time-dependent simulations in fluid flow and heat transfer.

This paper aims to prevent gasket sealing failure in engineering, accurately predict gasket life, extend system life and improve sealing reliability. The accelerated life test method of flexible graphite composite–reinforced gaskets is established, the life distribution law of flexible graphite composite–reinforced gaskets is revealed, and the life prediction method of flexible graphite composite–reinforced gaskets with different allowable leakage rates is proposed, which can provide a reference for the life prediction of other types of gaskets.

In this study, flexible graphite composite–reinforced gaskets were tested for long-term high-temperature sealing performance on a multi-sample gasket accelerated life test rig. The data were also analyzed using the least squares method and the K-S hypothesis calibration method. A gasket time-dependent leakage model and an accelerated life model were also developed. Constant stress-accelerated life tests were conducted on flexible graphite composite–reinforced gaskets. On this basis, a gasket life prediction method at different allowable leakage rates was proposed.

The life distribution law of flexible graphite composite–reinforced gaskets is revealed. The results show that the life of the gasket obeys the Weibull distribution. The time-correlated leakage model and accelerated life model of the gasket were established. And the accelerated life test method of the flexible graphite composite–reinforced gasket was established. The life distribution parameters, accelerated life model parameters and life estimates of gaskets were obtained through tests. On this basis, a gasket life prediction method under different leakage rates was proposed, which can be used as a reference for other types of gaskets.

The research in this paper can better provide guidance for the use and replacement of gaskets in the project, which is also very meaningful for predicting the leakage condition of gaskets in the bolted flange connection system and taking corresponding control measures to reduce energy waste and pollution and ensure the safe operation of industrial equipment.

A multi-specimen gasket-accelerated life test device has been developed, and the design parameters of the device have reached the international advanced level. The life distribution law of the flexible graphite composite–reinforced gasket was revealed. The accelerated life test method for the flexible graphite composite–reinforced gasket was established. The life prediction method of the flexible graphite composite–reinforced gasket under different allowable leakage rates was proposed.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/ILT-08-2023-0254/

Automatic modulation recognition (AMR) is a challenging problem in intelligent communication systems and has wide application prospects. At present, although many AMR methods based on deep learning have been proposed, the methods proposed by these works cannot be directly applied to the actual wireless communication scenario, because there are usually two kinds of dilemmas when recognizing the real modulated signal, namely, long sequence and noise. This paper aims to effectively process in-phase quadrature (IQ) sequences of very long signals interfered by noise.

This paper proposes a general model for a modulation classifier based on a two-layer nested structure of long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, called a two-layer nested structure (TLN)-LSTM, which exploits the time sensitivity of LSTM and the ability of the nested network structure to extract more features, and can achieve effective processing of ultra-long signal IQ sequences collected from real wireless communication scenarios that are interfered by noise.

Experimental results show that our proposed model has higher recognition accuracy for five types of modulation signals, including amplitude modulation, frequency modulation, gaussian minimum shift keying, quadrature phase shift keying and differential quadrature phase shift keying, collected from real wireless communication scenarios. The overall classification accuracy of the proposed model for these signals can reach 73.11%, compared with 40.84% for the baseline model. Moreover, this model can also achieve high classification performance for analog signals with the same modulation method in the public data set HKDD_AMC36.

At present, although many AMR methods based on deep learning have been proposed, these works are based on the model’s classification results of various modulated signals in the AMR public data set to evaluate the signal recognition performance of the proposed method rather than collecting real modulated signals for identification in actual wireless communication scenarios. The methods proposed in these works cannot be directly applied to actual wireless communication scenarios. Therefore, this paper proposes a new AMR method, dedicated to the effective processing of the collected ultra-long signal IQ sequences that are interfered by noise.

This study aims to investigate the thermal fracture mechanism of moisture-preconditioned SAC305 ball grid array (BGA) solder joints subjected to multiple reflow and thermal cycling.

The BGA package samples are subjected to JEDEC Level 1 accelerated moisture treatment (85 °C/85%RH/168 h) with five times reflow at 270 °C. This is followed by multiple thermal cycling from 0 °C to 100 °C for 40 min per cycle, per IPC-7351B standards. For fracture investigation, the cross-sections of the samples are examined and analysed using the dye-and-pry technique and backscattered scanning electron microscopy. The packages' microstructures are characterized using an energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy approach. Also, the package assembly is investigated using the Darveaux numerical simulation method.

The study found that critical strain density is exhibited at the component pad/solder interface of the solder joint located at the most distant point from the axes of symmetry of the package assembly. The fracture mechanism is a crack fracture formed at the solder's exterior edges and grows across the joint's transverse section. It was established that Au content in the formed intermetallic compound greatly impacts fracture growth in the solder joint interface, with a composition above 5 Wt.% Au regarded as an unsafe level for reliability. The elongation of the crack is aided by the brittle nature of the Au-Sn interface through which the crack propagates. It is inferred that refining the solder matrix elemental compound can strengthen and improve the reliability of solder joints.

Inspection lead time and additional manufacturing expenses spent on investigating reliability issues in BGA solder joints can be reduced using the study's findings on understanding the solder joint fracture mechanism.

Limited studies exist on the thermal fracture mechanism of moisture-preconditioned BGA solder joints exposed to both multiple reflow and thermal cycling. This study applied both numerical and experimental techniques to examine the reliability issue.