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The purpose of this study is to see if market timing predicts the first reporting of earnings performance after the issue, i.e. the issue-year earnings performance. Furthermore, this study examines the behaviour of financial and non-financial issuers’ performance in the light of varied market timings.

This study focuses on 785 NSE-listed initial public offerings that took place between April 2010 and December 2021. This study evaluates market timing by using moving averages. Using multiple regression analysis, the research further investigates the impact of market timing on issue-year earnings performance for financial and non-financial issuers on the basis of an interaction (moderation) effect.

This study finds that there is a significant presence of market timing in India, which predicts issue-year earnings performance. This study also demonstrates that hot market issuers’ performance is heavily influenced by market timing for non-financial issuers only. However, financial companies are not influenced by market timing.

The findings of this study will assist the potential investors, analysts and stakeholders about performance of public issuers in India. Lower earnings performance for hot market non-financial issuers implies that the issuers’ market performance may not be supported by earnings figures. A market performance that is not synchronous with earnings will not last long. The findings of this study hold implications to the regulators as well to keep an eye on issuers’ earnings performance alongside the stock performance. Apart from that, the observations in context of financial and non-financial issuers provide insight about the variation in performance of public issues on the basis of background.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the only study to examine earnings performance in the context of market timing in India. This study holds significance in terms of methodology for anticipating the presence of market timing and the study of interaction effects. Moreover, it is one of the few studies that has focused on comparing financial and non-financial issuers around the world.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the market timing and stock selection abilities of socially responsible (SR) mutual funds. Some high-profile SR fund managers try to embrace market timing and security selection plans to add value to the performance. Market timing relies on forecasting the equity market and shifting assets into or out of the market in anticipation of market movements. The selectivity measure assesses fund managers ability to select undervalued securities. Furthermore, the authors examine whether fund characteristics play any role in market timing and security selection ability.

The authors use Treynor and Mazuy's’ (1966) and Henriksson and Mertons’ (1981) model to examine the market timing and security selection ability. The study uses a decade of monthly returns to examine the skills of fund managers in the SR industry for the period from July 2002 to June 2012.

The main findings are that the managers – though not very successful – do indulge in stock selection and market timing activities. It was found that 48 funds have positive statistically significant stock selectivity coefficients and only a very small number of five funds with positive statistically significant market timing coefficients. Results suggest that there is a trade-off between the two activities. It was found that aggressive funds, funds with higher growth rate and riskier funds are more likely to engage in market timing rather than stock selection.

The implication is that SR managers cannot achieve superior stock selection and market timing ability simultaneously. Risk-averting investors in SR funds expect SR behavior from the managers. This means that managers of SR funds, with very little evidence of market timing ability, may have to refrain from market timing of SR funds.

Using a Morningstar dataset comprising almost all SR funds in existence as of June 2012, this is probably the most exhaustive long-term study to date on market timing and stock selection abilities of SR fund managers.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of market timing and pseudo market timing on equity issuance decisions of IPOs in an emerging economy – India. Indian new issues market provides a perfect setting to test market timing against pseudo market timing due to two reasons. First, the US literature shows that most underpriced IPOs are highly overvalued and in India, the authors have the evidence of underpricing of IPOs. But whether Indian IPOs are overvalued or not it is yet to be tested. Second, majority of IPOs were issued in India only after the 1991 economic reforms which may signal the evidence for pseudo market timing hypothesis.

The authors use direct test to examine the impact of market timing and pseudo market timing variables on the IPO activity. The direct tests of market timing and pseudo market timing hypotheses are based on the positive relation of market timing variables and market conditions variables with IPO activity. The authors examine the long-run performance of IPOs by using the calendar-time regression approach to test market timing against pseudo market timing. This serves as indirect test of market timing and pseudo market timing. Evidence of market timing using indirect test shows that there is a decline in the long-run stock performance of IPOs.

The results show that in India, firms issue equity not just due to market conditions but they also issue equity in order to time the market. The results of market timing are also supported by the calendar-time approach results. However, the authors find that the evidence of market timing is stronger for hot issue markets as compared to cold issue markets.

This is the first study to comprehensively examine market timing and pseudo market timing using direct and indirect tests for an emerging market context.

The Treynor and Mazuy framework is a widely used return-based model of market timing. However, existing corrections to the regression intercept can be manipulated through derivatives trading. Because they are conceptually flawed, these corrections produce biased performance measures. This paper aims to get back to Henriksson and Merton’s initial idea of option replication to overcome this issue and adapt the market timing model to various kinds of trading strategies and return-generating processes.

This paper proposes a theoretical adjustment based on Merton’s option replication approach adapted to the Treynor and Mazuy specification. The linear and quadratic coefficients of the regression are exploited to assess the cost of the replicating option that yields similar convexity for a passive portfolio. A similar reasoning applies for various timing patterns and in multi-factor models.

The proposed framework induces a potential rebalancing risk and involves the delicate issue of choosing the cheapest option. This paper shows that these issues can be overcome for reasonable tolerance levels. The option replication approach is a workable approach for practical applications.

The adaptation of Merton’s reasoning to the Treynor and Mazuy model has surprisingly never been proposed so far. This paper has the potential to correct for a pervasive bias in the estimation of the performance of a market timer in the context of this very popular quadratic regression setup. Because of the power of the option replication approach, the reasoning is shown to be applicable to multi-factor models, negative timing and market neutral strategies. This paper could fuel empirical studies that would shed new light on the genuine market timing skills of active portfolio managers.

This study aims to investigate how the timing behavior affects the capital structure decisions of South Asian family firms. A strand of literature is available based on the capital structure of firms in general but inconsistent with family businesses framework and not from market timing outlook. This study looks at the issues from the market timing perspectives of both equity and debt market timing.

The sample of the study is the listed family firms of India, Pakistan and Bangladesh. The firm-level data are collected from Thomson Reuters' DataStream and the ownership data collected from the countries' stock exchanges and financial statements of the family firms.

The results show that there is strong support for the market timing in the family firms' capital structure. Moreover, the financial crisis of 2007–2009 surprisingly had a positive effect on the capital structure of South Asian family business.

This study looks at the issues from the market timing perspectives of both equity and debt market timing. It provides evidence for supporting the equity and debt market timing effect on the capital structure and financing decision of family firms. It also addresses the impact of the 2007–2009 financial crisis on the capital structure of family firms.

The purpose of the study is applying and comparing models that predict optimal time for new product exit based on its demand pattern and survivability. This is to decide whether or not to continue investing in new product development (NPD).

The study investigates the optimal time for new product exit within the hi-tech sector by applying three models: the dynamic learning demand model (DLDM), the generalized Bass model (GBM) and the hazard model (HM). Further, for inter- and intra-model comparison, the authors conducted a simulation, considering Weiner and exponential price functions to enhance generalizability.

While higher price volatility signifies an unstable technology, greater investment into research and development (R&D) and marketing results in higher product adoption rates. Imitators have a more prominent role than innovators in determining the longevity of hi-tech products.

The study conducts a comparison of three different models considering time-varying parameters. There are four scenarios, considering variations in advertising intensity and content, word-of-mouth (WOM) effect, price volatility effect and sunk cost effect.

This paper looks at one relatively less‐visited issue in market timing: switching investments on common stocks between different stock markets, namely, “intermarket timing”. By employing the stock price data for the period of 1992‐2002 from a developed market, Hong Kong, and two emerging markets, Shanghai and Shenzhen, this paper examines potential gains and the required predictive accuracy for intermarket timing between Hong Kong and Shanghai, and between Hong Kong and Shenzhen from Hong Kong investors’ perspective. Potential gains could be obtained from such timing strategy, and the non‐high minimum forecasting ability required for successful timing is fairly attainable for Hong Kong investors, even after taking into account the assumed transaction costs.

The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive background on the recent legislative, regulatory, and prosecutorial scrutiny of mutual funds and underlying issues such as the level and transparency of fees and costs, distribution and sales practices, and fund governance.

Provides a detailed chronology of events since January 2003 concerning mutual fund scandals such as trading abuses and questionable sales practices and related issues such as revenue sharing, directed brokerage, soft dollars, market timing, late trading, and selective disclosure. The chronology in this issue of JOIC will be followed an article in the next issue that describes reform initiatives that have taken place in response to the scandals.

Despite criticism and scrutiny of equity mutual funds following poor performance in 2001 and 2002, meaningful efforts to achieve reform began to lose momentum in mid‐2003. Then concern with mutual fund abuses was reignited in September 2003 when New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer announced a settlement with Canary Capital that involved market timing, late trading, and selective disclosure. Since then there have been numerous disclosures of fund trading abuses and questionable trading practices, and the resulting uproar has triggered significant efforts to reform the manner in which funds and their service providers conduct business.

This comprehensive chronology provides an essential reference by bringing together all the events and underlying issues related to mutual fund scandals, abuses, regulation, compliance, and reform efforts since January 1, 2003.

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of interest rates on the size and the maturity choice of a syndicated bank loan. In addition, it attempts to determine the long‐run impact of a syndicated loan on the borrower's capital structure.

The paper uses a sample of 6,903 syndicated bank loans in the USA, covering the period 1984‐2004. First, all syndicated loans are categorized into two groups: loans in periods of increasing interest rates, and loans in periods of decreasing rates. Then, non‐parametric tests are performed to compare the characteristics of the two groups, including the proceeds from the loans, and robust regressions are used to examine the impact of the interest rates on the maturity choice. Finally, robust regressions are employed to examine the long‐run impact of the interest rates on the borrowers' leverage ratios.

On the whole, the results reject the market timing theory of capital structure for syndicated bank loans. Firms in the two groups borrow in similar amounts, and in the long run, the difference between the two groups' leverage ratios is statistically insignificant. On the other hand, firms tend to choose longer maturities when the interest rates are low compared to the rates two or three years ago.

To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study that links debt market conditions to the leverage ratios of firms that borrow in the syndicated bank loan market. In other words, this is the first study that tests the market timing theory of capital structure for syndicated bank loans.

Notes that much is known in the academic literature about factors that may be influential in firms’ market entry timing decisions. Specifically, in response to a competitors’ pioneering new product introduction, academic research finds many conditions that suggest a greater desirability of immediate market entry while many other conditions suggest a greater desirability of a delayed response. Reports the results of a survey and experiment where working managers and experienced MBA students were asked to evaluate the timing of market entry given a complex business scenario. The results show areas where there is a consensus among decision makers with the academic literature, as well as areas where views differ from that of the literature. Perverts and discusses insights gained into the decision making processes of managers for market entry timing decisions. The study can help managers in follower firms achieve greater success in formulating market entry timing strategies by reducing ambiguity in the timing implications of many internal and external conditions, as well as by drawing attention to potential action biases.