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Book part
Publication date: 13 August 2007

Timothy B. Folta and Jonathan P. O’Brien

We examine a central tenet of real option theory – whether real options influence managerial thresholds for investment. In contrast to prior studies that have focused on whether…

Abstract

We examine a central tenet of real option theory – whether real options influence managerial thresholds for investment. In contrast to prior studies that have focused on whether real options influence discrete investment decisions, our focus is on empirically isolating real options’ effects on thresholds. In particular, we examine the real options inherent in acquisition decisions. Our model posits that there are good reasons why we might expect there to be information asymmetry around the value of real options. Accordingly, if managers have unique information about growth options we might expect to observe them lowering their thresholds, perhaps to the point where they are willing to accept negative market returns. We further expect that the degree of information asymmetry for firm-specific growth options should be higher than for industry-specific growth options. Finally, we believe that managerial thresholds will be more prone to influence from growth options than deferment options. While thresholds are unobservable, we are able to isolate the effects of real options on acquisition thresholds by borrowing a method used originally in labor economics to isolate the determinants of reservation wages. Using a sample of over 28,000 acquisitions in the U.S., we find strong support for the model. These findings suggest that firms with low thresholds may choose to acquire despite comparatively low expected performance.

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Real Options Theory
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-7623-1427-0

Book part
Publication date: 20 September 2021

John R. Busenbark, Kenneth A. Frank, Spiro J. Maroulis, Ran Xu and Qinyun Lin

In this chapter, we explicate two related techniques that help quantify the sensitivity of a given causal inference to potential omitted variables and/or other sources of…

Abstract

In this chapter, we explicate two related techniques that help quantify the sensitivity of a given causal inference to potential omitted variables and/or other sources of unexplained heterogeneity. In particular, we describe the Impact Threshold of a Confounding Variable (ITCV) and the Robustness of Inference to Replacement (RIR). The ITCV describes the minimum correlation necessary between an omitted variable and the focal parameters of a study to have created a spurious or invalid statistical inference. The RIR is a technique that quantifies the percentage of observations with nonzero effects in a sample that would need to be replaced with zero effects in order to overturn a given causal inference at any desired threshold. The RIR also measures the percentage of a given parameter estimate that would need to be biased in order to overturn an inference. Each of these procedures is critical to help establish causal inference, perhaps especially for research urgently studying the COVID-19 pandemic when scholars are not afforded the luxury of extended time periods to determine precise magnitudes of relationships between variables. Over the course of this chapter, we define each technique, illustrate how they are applied in the context of seminal strategic management research, offer guidelines for interpreting corresponding results, and delineate further considerations.

Book part
Publication date: 19 July 2005

Timothy B. Folta

I am interested in clarifying the discussion of how researchers might try to isolate real option effects to identify whether managerial decisions are guided by a real option…

Abstract

I am interested in clarifying the discussion of how researchers might try to isolate real option effects to identify whether managerial decisions are guided by a real option heuristic. If we are to claim that the theory of real options illuminates managerial behavior, then as a field, we must converge on an understanding as to what constitutes a real option effect, and what does not. The discussion centers on hypothesis development, measurement issues, and research methodology.

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Research Methodology in Strategy and Management
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-76231-208-5

Book part
Publication date: 26 April 2014

Nikolaos Giannellis and Georgios P. Kouretas

The aim of this study is to examine whether China’s exchange rate follows an equilibrium process and consequently to answer the question of whether or not China’s international…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this study is to examine whether China’s exchange rate follows an equilibrium process and consequently to answer the question of whether or not China’s international competitiveness fluctuates in consistency with equilibrium.

Design/methodology/approach

The theoretical background of the paper relies on the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis, while the econometric methodology is mainly based on a nonlinear two-regime Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) unit root test.

Findings

The main finding is that China’s price competitiveness was not constantly following a disequilibrium process. The two-regime threshold model shows that PPP equilibrium was confirmed in periods of relatively high – compared to the estimated threshold – rate of real yuan appreciation. Moreover, it is implied that the fixed exchange rate regime cannot ensure external balance since it can neither establish equilibrium in the foreign exchange market, nor confirm that China’s international competitiveness adjustment follows an equilibrium process.

Practical implications

The results do not imply that China acts as a currency manipulator. However, a main policy implication of the paper is that China should continue appreciating the yuan to establish external balance.

Originality/value

This paper is the first which accounts for a nonlinear two-regime process toward a threshold, which is defined to be the rate of change in China’s international competitiveness. Consequently, the paper draws attention to the role of China’s international competiveness in accepting the PPP hypothesis.

Details

Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78350-756-6

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 31 December 2003

Bill McKelvey

Organizational researchers live in two worlds. The first demands and rewards speculations about how to improve performance. The second demands and rewards adherence to rigorous…

Abstract

Organizational researchers live in two worlds. The first demands and rewards speculations about how to improve performance. The second demands and rewards adherence to rigorous standards of scholarship (March & Sutton, 1997, p. 698).Those of us who study organizations and are professors of management work on the front lines, so to speak, where the beliefs we have about how to improve managerial performance get passed directly on to practitioners. The question is, What right do we have to put our beliefs in a privileged position? Beliefs, by definition, are supposed to be true. According to Webster’s (1996) a belief is a conviction about the truth of some statement and/or reality of some phenomenon, especially when based on examination of evidence. Are all of our lectures based on consensually agreed upon evidentiary standards? What are these standards and who should maintain them?

Details

Post Modernism and Management
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-573-4

Book part
Publication date: 18 January 2023

Kelsey Kay Dworkis and S. Mark Young

This study examines the effects of narcissism and bonus-based incentive plans on managerial decision-making performance. Using an experiment, the authors first examine decision…

Abstract

This study examines the effects of narcissism and bonus-based incentive plans on managerial decision-making performance. Using an experiment, the authors first examine decision choices under two levels of an incentive threshold (high and low). Narcissism is measured using the Narcissistic Personality Inventory (NPI). Typically, the NPI is used as a single monolithic construct in analyses; however, in this study, the authors subdivide it in two ways to gain more nuanced information about its impact on decision making. First, the authors split the NPI into three levels – high, medium, and low (Hascalovitz & Obhi, 2015), and then decompose it into its adaptive and maladaptive components (Campbell, Hoffman, Campbell, & Marchisio, 2011) to examine how these subdivisions affect performance. Results show that the different levels of incentive thresholds affect performance among narcissistic individuals. Results indicate that individuals higher in narcissism and higher in levels of adaptive and maladaptive narcissism outperform their low-trait counterparts in a lower-threshold environment, but not in a high threshold environment.

Book part
Publication date: 13 May 2017

Hugo Jales and Zhengfei Yu

This chapter reviews recent developments in the density discontinuity approach. It is well known that agents having perfect control of the forcing variable will invalidate the…

Abstract

This chapter reviews recent developments in the density discontinuity approach. It is well known that agents having perfect control of the forcing variable will invalidate the popular regression discontinuity designs (RDDs). To detect the manipulation of the forcing variable, McCrary (2008) developed a test based on the discontinuity in the density around the threshold. Recent papers have noted that the sorting patterns around the threshold are often either the researcher’s object of interest or may relate to structural parameters such as tax elasticities through known functions. This, in turn, implies that the behavior of the distribution around the threshold is not only informative of the validity of a standard RDD; it can also be used to recover policy-relevant parameters and perform counterfactual exercises.

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Regression Discontinuity Designs
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78714-390-6

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 13 August 2007

Lihui Lin and Nalin Kulatilaka

Performance of firms in network industries depends much on the creation of standards around their technologies, products, or services. Establishing standards requires committing…

Abstract

Performance of firms in network industries depends much on the creation of standards around their technologies, products, or services. Establishing standards requires committing large, irreversible, upfront investment while demand remains uncertain. This paper focuses on the real options involved in this investment problem. The conventional real options literature recognizes the waiting-to-invest option where firms could avoid regret by waiting until at least some of the uncertainty is resolved. However, early commitment of network investment has vital strategic effects on shaping the expectations of potential users and inducing them to adopt the standard, thus creating a strategic growth option. We develop a simple model to explore the tradeoff between this strategic growth option and the waiting-to-invest option. We solve for the optimal investment rules and find that for high uncertainty, the strategic growth option often dominates the waiting-to-invest option and reduces the investment threshold. Furthermore, the intensity of network effect enhances the strategic growth option. Our results have important implications to the strategies of firms in technology industries.

Details

Real Options Theory
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-7623-1427-0

Book part
Publication date: 18 January 2022

Gareth Anderson and Mehdi Raissi

Productivity growth in Italy has been persistently anemic and lagged that of the euro area over the period 1999–2015, while the indebtedness of its corporate sector increased…

Abstract

Productivity growth in Italy has been persistently anemic and lagged that of the euro area over the period 1999–2015, while the indebtedness of its corporate sector increased. Using the ORBIS firm-level database, this chapter studies the long-term impact of persistent corporate-debt accumulation on the productivity growth of Italian firms, and investigates whether total factor productivity (TFP) growth varies with the level of corporate indebtedness. The authors employ a novel estimation technique proposed by Chudik, Mohaddes, Pesaran, & Raissi (2017) to account for dynamics, bi-directional feedback effects, cross-firm heterogeneity, and cross-sectional dependence arising from unobserved common factors (e.g., oil price shocks, labor and product market frictions, and the stance of the global financial cycle). Filtering out the effects of unobserved common factors and controlling for firm-specific characteristics, the authors find significant negative effects of persistent corporate-debt build-up on firms’ TFP growth on average, and weak evidence of a threshold level of corporate debt, beyond which productivity growth drops off significantly. The results have strong policy implications, for example the design of the tax system should discourage persistent corporate-debt accumulation, and effective and timely frameworks to reduce corporate-debt overhangs are essential.

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Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Panel Modeling, Micro Applications, and Econometric Methodology
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80262-065-8

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 13 December 2013

Kirstin Hubrich and Timo Teräsvirta

This survey focuses on two families of nonlinear vector time series models, the family of vector threshold regression (VTR) models and that of vector smooth transition regression…

Abstract

This survey focuses on two families of nonlinear vector time series models, the family of vector threshold regression (VTR) models and that of vector smooth transition regression (VSTR) models. These two model classes contain incomplete models in the sense that strongly exogeneous variables are allowed in the equations. The emphasis is on stationary models, but the considerations also include nonstationary VTR and VSTR models with cointegrated variables. Model specification, estimation and evaluation is considered, and the use of the models illustrated by macroeconomic examples from the literature.

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VAR Models in Macroeconomics – New Developments and Applications: Essays in Honor of Christopher A. Sims
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78190-752-8

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