Search results

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the current rhetoric of predictability in investment theory. After making the case for unpredictability, a new rhetoric for investment theory is proposed.

McCloskey's project of the rhetoric of economics provides the background and approach for the author's investigation. In particular the author will use the notions of metaphor, prediction, discourse analysis, and virtue ethics.

The current rhetoric equals the original rhetoric in the seminal work of Markowitz. The current rhetoric is based on predictability and rational behaviour. The proposed new rhetoric for investment theory denies predictability. The new rhetoric aims to cope with statistics by stressing that statistics is supportive but not decisive: handling investment theory is about judgements, combining virtues with historical and theoretical insights.

The investigation of the rhetoric of investment theory has practical relevance because the theory constitutes investment practice, and can put financial wealth at risk. The new rhetoric for investment theory invites practitioners and researchers to reflect on the epistemology of investment theory, and its consequences for the field.

The rhetoric of investment theory is to the author's knowledge not yet analysed in the literature. The rhetorical analysis of the current rhetoric and the proposal of a new rhetoric aim to contribute to the literature on the rhetoric of investment theory.

Real options theory begins by drawing an analogy between real options and financial options. A financial option is a derivative security whose value is derived from the worth and characteristics of another financial security, or the so-called underlying asset. By definition, a financial option gives its holder the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying asset at a specified price (i.e., the exercise price) on or before a given date (i.e., the expiration date). Financial economists Black and Scholes (1973) and Merton (1973) pioneered a formula for the valuation of a financial option, and their methodology has opened up the subsequent research on the pricing of financial assets and paved the way for the development of real options theory.

We discuss recent developments in real options theory and its applications to strategic management research, examine the potential difficulties in implementing real options in theory and practice, and propose several areas for future research. Our review shows that real options theory has provided substantial insights into investment and exit decisions as well as into the choice of investment modes. In addition, extant research studies have contributed significantly to our understanding of whether and how organizations can benefit from real options. Future research that addresses difficulties in applications will further advance both real options theory and practice in strategic management. We call for future generations of research to enhance the impact of real options as an emerging dominant conceptual lens in strategic management.

“Economics is a Serious Subject.” Edwin Cannan.

The end of World War II brought about many economic changes, among them the tremendous increase of US manufacturing activities in Western Europe. This astronomical increase of foreign direct investment (FDI) required a new theory ‐ an economic theory of foreign direct investment. International economic theory, which traditionally had ignored the FDI decision, was not able to explain the FDI decision, nor could it explain the phenomena of multinational corporation (MNC). In a world of perfect competition, foreign direct investment would be absent. And when all markets operate efficiently, when there are no external economies of production and marketing, when information is costless and there are no barriers to trade or competition, international trade is the only possible form of international involvement. Logically, it follows that it is the departures from the models of perfect competition that must provide the rationale for foreign direct investment. Since, according to the Heckscher‐ Ohlin‐Samuelson (neoclassical) model, trade of goods will equalize factor prices in a world of factor immobility. In fact, the FDI decision is even ignored by new international economics which, since the late 1970's, has utilized new developments in the field of industrial organization. Proponents of these new theories have developed models that emphasize increasing returns and imperfect competition and see the possibility that government involvements in trade (trade restrictions, export subsidies, etc.) may under some circumstances be useful. All of this is done while foreign direct investment is ignored.

Theories of the business cycle can be classified into two main groups, exogenous and endogenous, according to the way they explain economic fluctuations – either as responses of the economy to factors that are external (exogenous shocks) or as upturns and downturns of the economic system internally generated (by endogenous factors). In endogenous theories, investment is generally a key variable to explain the dynamic status of the economy. This essay examines the role of investment in endogenous theories. Two contrasting views on how changes in investment and profitability push the economy towards expansion or contraction are represented by the insights of Kalecki, Keynes, Matthews and Minsky versus those of Marx and Mitchell. Hyman Minsky claimed that investment ‘calls the tune’ to indicate that investment is the only variable not determined by other variables, so that future profits, investment and the dynamic status of the economy are determined by current investment and investment in the near past. However, this hypothesis does not appear to be supported by available empirical data for 251 quarters of the US economy. Statistical evidence rather supports the hypothesis of causality in the direction of profits determining investment and, in this way, leading the economy towards boom or bust.

The paper seeks to develop an analytical theory of project investment.

The authors derive a partial differential equation that the variable cost of a project should satisfy, determine a proper initial condition through a thought experiment, and solve the equation.

A formula of variable cost as an analytical function of fixed cost, uncertainty of the environment and the duration of a project is obtained.

The analytical formula enables systematic comparison of returns of different investment under different market conditions to be made. This refines the insights from real option theory in many ways. Since all production systems need fixed investment to lower variable costs, by providing an analytical theory about the relation among fixed costs, variable costs and uncertainty, this theory contributes a new foundation to investment theory and other different fields.

An analytical theory of project investment about the relation among fixed costs, variable costs, uncertainty of the environment and the duration of a project, which is the core concern in most business decisions, does not exist in the current literature.

This paper introduces a hitherto unpublished 1970 paper written by Lauchlin Currie (1902–1993) on Paul Rosenstein Rodan’s famous 1943 paper on the “Big Push” which led to the balanced-unbalanced growth debate to which Albert Hirschman (1915–2012) was an important contributor. Both Currie and Hirschman had been key economic advisers to the Colombian government, and their respective views on development planning are contrasted. In particular, it is shown how Currie’s 1970 paper illuminates the theory behind the 1971–1974 national plan for Colombia that he prepared and helped deliver; and how the related institutional innovations have had an enduring impact on Colombia’s recent economic history.