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Over the last 60 years, multilateral trade liberalization has reduced tariffs to historically low levels. The dominant theory of multilateral trade agreements, based solely on terms-of-trade externalities between national governments, is the conventional wisdom among international trade theorists. But it features two defects that render it inconsistent with reality. This chapter proposes a simple formulation of the political economy of protection that dispenses with terms-of-trade externalities, predicts the properties that empirical work has confirmed, and is free of the counterfactual implications of the dominant approach. The model is applied to trade agreements.
This paper aims to examine the effects of adding non-tradable sector and trade in intermediate goods sector and their impact on the “Backus-Smith” (BS) puzzle and the…
This paper aims to examine the effects of adding non-tradable sector and trade in intermediate goods sector and their impact on the “Backus-Smith” (BS) puzzle and the features of the non-tradable output. Conventional international real business cycle models show that the real exchange rate and the terms of trade are positively correlated to the relative consumption movement between the home and foreign economies when there is a total factor productivity shock, whereas the correlation in the data is negative. The author develops a two-country, dynamic, stochastic and general equilibrium (DSGE) model with staggered price setting in the non-tradable sector and international trade in intermediate goods sector because of product differentiation in a high-asset market frictions situation.
In this paper, DGSE simulation and calibration are performed using Matlab with Dynare.
When the world economy has positive country-specific productivity shock, the benchmark model with non-tradable sector and intermediate goods sector successfully solves the BS puzzle and is able to match several features of the data. The dynamic responses to productivity shock show that integrating product differentiation is necessary to generate a more volatile and counter-cyclical non-tradable output.
The paper investigates the effects of incorporating non-tradable sector and trade in interemediate goods sector to standard two-country DSGE model through simulation and calibration.
In the past few decades, there have been phenomenal increases in capital flows to developing and emerging markets. However, a key question that has largely remained…
In the past few decades, there have been phenomenal increases in capital flows to developing and emerging markets. However, a key question that has largely remained unanswered is whether the expected economic benefits have materialized. Existing studies have concentrated on the impact of capital flows on domestic investment in developing countries, emerging markets, transition economies, ECOWAS and sub-Saharan Africa, leaving an important economic bloc, OPEC. This paper aims to assess the impact of capital flows on domestic investment in OPEC countries – with a view to determining whether capital flows crowd in or crowd out domestic investment.
For the empirical analysis, the authors used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique.
The empirical results provide evidence that capital flows crowd out domestic investment in all the OPEC countries considered, except for Angola and Kuwait. The authors further extended the analysis to disaggregated capital flows (FDI, portfolio investment). Evidence from the different capital flows components revealed that, for most countries, the different capital flows components also crowd out domestic investment.
To the best of the author’s knowledge, no study has empirically addressed the effect of capital flows on domestic investment in OPEC countries. This study, therefore, constitutes an interesting empirical contribution and a novel idea in the literature.
What would have been the hypothetical effect of monetary policy shocks had a country never joined the euro area, in cases where we know that the country in question…
What would have been the hypothetical effect of monetary policy shocks had a country never joined the euro area, in cases where we know that the country in question actually did join the euro area? It is one thing to investigate the impact of joining a monetary union, but quite another to examine two things at once: joining the union and experiencing actual monetary policy shocks. The authors propose a methodology that combines synthetic control ideas with the impulse response functions to uncover dynamic response paths for treated and untreated units, controlling for common unobserved factors. Focusing on the largest euro area countries, Germany, France, and Italy, the authors find that an unexpected rise in interest rates depresses inflation and significantly appreciates exchange rate, whereas gross domestic product (GDP) fluctuations are less successfully controlled when a country belongs to the monetary union than would have been the case under the independent monetary policy. Importantly, Italy turns out to be the overall beneficiary, since all three channels – price, GDP, and exchange rate – deliver the desired results. The authors also find that stabilizing an economy within a union requires somewhat smaller policy changes than attempting to stabilize it individually, and therefore provides more policy space.
Unequal Exchange (L'échange inégal) by Arghiri Emmanuel attempts a Marxist treatment of trade between poor and rich countries. Published with it are four appendices in…
Unequal Exchange (L'échange inégal) by Arghiri Emmanuel attempts a Marxist treatment of trade between poor and rich countries. Published with it are four appendices in which Charles Bettelheim and Emmanuel debate the issues raised by the main work, and a fifth appendix in which Emmanuel replies to other critics. Emmanuel aims, he says, to address himself “to economists of all tendencies in a common language” (p.323). This aspiration, which is reprehended by Bettelheim (p.349) — either you stand on Marxist ground or you don't — makes the book a particularly interesting one for the non‐Marxist interested in the same range of issues. Though some of the terms used are Marxist or have a peculiarly Marxist meaning, the approach — again to Bettelheim's dismay (p.284) — is through analytical models whose internal logic and empirical realism can be rigorously discussed.
This paper develops a theory, consistent with empirical evidence, of trade agreements as the exchange of market access. The WTO dispute settlement process is discussed in…
This paper develops a theory, consistent with empirical evidence, of trade agreements as the exchange of market access. The WTO dispute settlement process is discussed in this context. The role of that process is neither to deter nor to punish violations of trade agreements, but to maintain reciprocity.
This article provides a detailed investigation of how Lewis revisited classical and Marxian concepts such as productive/unproductive labor, economic surplus, subsistence…
This article provides a detailed investigation of how Lewis revisited classical and Marxian concepts such as productive/unproductive labor, economic surplus, subsistence wages, reserve army, and capital accumulation in his investigation of economic development. The Lewis 1954 development model is compared to other models advanced at the time by Harrod, Domar, Swan, Kaldor, Solow, von Neumann, Nurkse, Rosenstein-Rodan, Myint, and others. Lewis applied the notion of economic duality to open and closed economies.
This chapter examines the role of immigrant networks on trade, particulalry through the demand effect. First, we examine the effect of immigration on trade when the…
This chapter examines the role of immigrant networks on trade, particulalry through the demand effect. First, we examine the effect of immigration on trade when the immigrants consume more of the good that is abundant in their home country than the natives in a standard Heckscher–Ohlin model and find that the effect of immigration on trade is a priori indeterminate. Our econometric gravity model consisting of 63 major trading and immigrant-sending country for the United States over 1991–2000. We find that the immigrants income, mostly through demand effect has a significant negative effect on U.S. imports. However, if we include the effect of the immigrant income interacted with the size of the immigrant network, measured by the immigrant stock, we find that higher immigrants income lowers the immigrant network effect for both U.S. exports and imports. This we find in addition to the immigrants stock elasticity of 0.27% for U.S. exports and 0.48% for U.S. imports. Capturing the immigrant assimilation with the level of immigrant income and the size of the immigrant enclave this chapter finds that the immigrant network effect on trade flows is weakened by the increasing level of immigrant assimilation.