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Article
Publication date: 18 September 2023

Michael J. Butler

Conventional wisdom tells us that mediation without ripeness is a fool’s errand (Zartman and Touval, 1985). What, then, is Türkiye’s motivation for mediating the war in Ukraine in…

Abstract

Purpose

Conventional wisdom tells us that mediation without ripeness is a fool’s errand (Zartman and Touval, 1985). What, then, is Türkiye’s motivation for mediating the war in Ukraine in lieu of ripeness – and what can its behavior as a mediator tell us about that motivation? In pursuit of this question, this paper inductively analyzes Turkish mediation in the Ukraine war to unpack the relationship between a contextual (ripeness) and actor-level (motivation) variable. Of particular interest is the decision-making and behavior of third parties (like Türkiye in Ukraine) who elect to mediate highly complex conflicts in which ripeness is indiscernible. The purpose of this research is not to propose or test a causal relationship between obscured ripeness and mediation, but rather to examine mediation behavior in situations where ripeness is obscured.

Design/methodology/approach

The impact of weaponized information on ripeness and third-party mediation is evaluated through an original, systematic and inductive case study analysis of Turkish mediation in the RussiaUkraine war. As an intense theater of operations for information warfare for well over a decade, the war in Ukraine serves as an especially apt choice for an analysis of “obscured ripeness.” Likewise, Türkiye’s anomalous position as the only substantive source of mediation in the conflict lends significance to an empirical examination of its motivation and behavior as a mediator.

Findings

This research reveals that the pervasive use of weaponized information in the RussiaUkraine war has distorted and disordered the information environment, thereby obscuring the ability of third parties to determine if the conflict is or could be ripe for mediation. However, the condition of obscured ripeness that prevails in the conflict has not proven a deterrent for mediation by Türkiye, which, as the only mediator in the conflict, has used a transactional approach to mediation motivated by self-regarding interests and animated by a manipulative mediation strategy. In sum, this inductive analysis of Turkish mediation in Ukraine reveals that the use of weaponized information in a conflict indirectly selects on transactional mediation (and mediators). The significance of this finding is magnified by the widespread use of weaponized information in contemporary conflicts as well as the declining frequency of third-party mediation.

Originality/value

There have been few, if any, systematic assessments in Turkish mediation of the RussiaUkraine war, and none specifically concerned with the effects of weaponized information. Additionally, the paper proposes a typology of mediator motivation that is used to structure that assessment, while also introducing a new concept (“obscured ripeness”) and linking that concept both to the existing literature on ripeness and to the use of weaponized information in contemporary armed conflicts. As such, this manuscript represents an important contribution both to the empirical and theoretical landscape with respect to the study of mediation and international conflict management.

Details

International Journal of Conflict Management, vol. 35 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1044-4068

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 May 2023

Ghadi Saad

This paper attempts to investigate the impact of the RussiaUkraine war on the returns and volatility of the United States (US) natural gas futures market.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper attempts to investigate the impact of the RussiaUkraine war on the returns and volatility of the United States (US) natural gas futures market.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses secondary data of 996 trading day provided by the US Department of Energy and investing.com websites and applies the event study methodology in addition to the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) family models.

Findings

The findings from the exponential EGARCH (1,1) estimate are the best indication of a significant positive effects of the UkraineRussia war on the returns and volatility of the US natural gas futures prices. The cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of the event study show that the natural gas futures prices reacted negatively but not significantly to the Russian–Ukraine war at the event date window [−1,1] and the [−15, −4] event window. CARs for the longer pre and post-event window display significant positive values and coincides with the standard finance theory for the case of the US natural gas futures over the RussiaUkraine conflict.

Originality/value

This is the first study to examine the impact of the RussiaUkraine war on natural gas futures prices in the United States. Thus, it provides indications on the behavior of investors in this market and proposes new empirical evidence that help in investment analyses and decisions.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 15 May 2023

Luiz Eduardo Gaio and Daniel Henrique Dario Capitani

This study investigates the impacts of the RussiaUkraine conflict on the cross-correlation between agricultural commodity prices and crude oil prices.

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Abstract

Purpose

This study investigates the impacts of the RussiaUkraine conflict on the cross-correlation between agricultural commodity prices and crude oil prices.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used MultiFractal Detrended Fluctuation Cross-Correlation Analysis (MF-X-DFA) to explore the correlation behavior before and during conflict. The authors analyzed the price connections between future prices for crude oil and agricultural commodities. Data consists of daily futures price returns for agricultural commodities (Corn, Soybean and Wheat) and Crude Oil (Brent) traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange from Aug 3, 2020, to July 29, 2022.

Findings

The results suggest that cross-correlation behavior changed after the conflict. The multifractal behavior was observed in the cross correlations. The RussiaUkraine conflict caused an increase in the series' fractal strength. The study findings showed that the correlations involving the wheat market were higher and anti-persistent behavior was observed.

Research limitations/implications

The study was limited by the number of observations after the RussiaUkraine conflict.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature that investigates the impact of the RussiaUkraine conflict on the financial market. As this is a recent event, as far as we know, we did not find another study that investigated cross-correlation in agricultural commodities using multifractal analysis.

Details

Journal of Agribusiness in Developing and Emerging Economies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2044-0839

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 January 2023

Fan Feng, Ningyuan Jia and Faqin Lin

Considering the importance of Russia and Ukraine in agriculture, the authors quantify the potential impact of the RussiaUkraine conflict on food output, trade, prices and food…

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Abstract

Purpose

Considering the importance of Russia and Ukraine in agriculture, the authors quantify the potential impact of the RussiaUkraine conflict on food output, trade, prices and food security for the world.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors mainly use the quantitative and structural multi-country and multi-sector general equilibrium trade model to analyze the potential impacts of the conflict on the global food trade pattern and security.

Findings

First, the authors found that the conflict would lead to soaring agricultural prices, decreasing trade volume and severe food insecurity especially for countries that rely heavily on grain imports from Ukraine and Russia, such as Egypt and Turkey. Second, major production countries such as the United States and Canada may even benefit from the conflict. Third, restrictions on upstream energy and fertilizer will amplify the negative effects of food insecurity.

Originality/value

This study analyzed the effect of RussiaUkraine conflict on global food security based on sector linkages and the quantitative general equilibrium trade framework. With a clearer demonstration of the influence about the inherent mechanism based on fewer parameters compared with traditional Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) models, the authors showed integrated impacts of the conflict on food output, trade, prices and welfare across sectors and countries.

Details

China Agricultural Economic Review, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1756-137X

Keywords

Content available
Article
Publication date: 11 October 2022

Saeed Awadh Bin-Nashwan, M. Kabir Hassan and Aishath Muneeza

While the world is yet to fully recuperate from the social and economic repercussions of COVID-19, the RussiaUkraine conflict poses another major threat causing a humanitarian…

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Abstract

Purpose

While the world is yet to fully recuperate from the social and economic repercussions of COVID-19, the RussiaUkraine conflict poses another major threat causing a humanitarian crisis and economic shock. Although the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and its pledge to “leave no one behind” is a universal commitment to protect the livelihoods of vulnerable groups, the RussiaUkraine ongoing conflict is causing immense suffering and a gloomy future for the 2030 Agenda. The purpose of this study is to provide a holistic understanding of the ramifications of the RussiaUkraine war in SDGs progress around the world. Further, the authors shed light on how stakeholders can help engage in support of SDGs in such a challenging time.

Design/methodology/approach

This study is qualitative in nature and relies on secondary sources. The motive behind this study is to allow social and economic policy researchers and practitioners to learn from the RussiaUkraine dispute. The authors conduct a preliminary factual analysis to determine patterns of how the conflict affects the SDGs Agenda. On this basis, the authors propose some recommendations.

Findings

While it is still early to measure the full impact of the war on crises worldwide, it is clear that the repercussions will be multi-dimensional. The authors argue that the conflict in Ukraine is severely threatening the achievement of the SDGs. As such, the authors identify patterns of this crisis that have halted progress on SDGs worldwide. Of all SDGs, the authors argue that SDG16 (i.e. peace and justice) is an absolute pre-requisite to sustaining other goals. Further, refugees should be economically empowered, resilient and sustainable food systems need to be put in place and renewable energy transition is required.

Research limitations/implications

This study serves as a springboard for future research by identifying patterns of war crises that have halted progress in achieving sustainable development worldwide. Empirical evidence needs to be conducted on the impact of this ongoing conflict on sustainable development and the 2030 Agenda.

Practical implications

This study could provide guidance to leaders and stakeholders across the globe on patterns for the impact of the UkraineRussia conflict on undermining global sustainable development while highlighting the need for major additional efforts to achieve the relevant SDGs.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to analyse the threats the RussiaUkraine dispute presents to the achievement of the 2030 Agenda for SDGs.

Details

International Journal of Ethics and Systems, vol. 40 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-9369

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 12 January 2024

Iryna Reshetnikova, Katarzyna Sanak-Kosmowska and Jan W. Wiktor

The purpose of this paper was identification and empirical assessment of the differentiation of consumers' attitudes in Ukraine and Poland to Russian brands and other brands…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper was identification and empirical assessment of the differentiation of consumers' attitudes in Ukraine and Poland to Russian brands and other brands offered on the Russian market after Russia’s aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

Design/methodology/approach

The main research methods include a systematic literature review and the authors' own surveys conducted in November 2022. The research sample comprised 950 consumers – 67% of them were Poles, 30% – Ukrainians and 3% from other countries.

Findings

A respondents' country (Poland and Ukraine) does not impact attitudes to brands offered on the Russian market after Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022. Moreover, it does not affect and differentiate emotional engagement in the conflict and assistance to war victims. Cluster analysis resulted in identifying two groups on the basis of consumers' declared emotional reactions to the war. The first group was smaller (N = 353, 37.2%), referred to as “indifferent consumers”, and was characterized by a greater inclination to purchase brands offered in Russia. The other cluster, referred to as “sensitive consumers” (N = 597, 62.8%), comprises those engaged in offering assistance to war victims, showing strong emotions in connection with the aggression and military activities and characterized by a clearly negative attitude to Russian and other offered brands and an inclination to boycott these brands.

Research limitations/implications

A short time horizon, the study confined to two countries, difficulties in reaching Ukrainian respondents due to power failures in Ukraine in the period of conducting the survey (November 2022), a non-representative research sample – overrepresentation of people aged 18–25 years.

Practical implications

The research study contributes to the knowledge about consumer brand attitudes and preferences under unique social, economic and market conditions. These conditions were created by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as well as the international and global character of the war in Ukraine. The significant implications of the study refer to brand communication policies and companies' CSR-related declarations. A number of consumers' errors were recorded, resulting from wrong brand retrieval, which were rectified at a later stage as a result of international restrictions imposed on Russia, harsh media criticism and social international embargoes imposed on brands offered in Russia. The marketing communication of contemporary global brands should give consideration to the informative function of CSR activities, and the communication process should be continuous. Critical attitudes and an inclination to boycott brands point to the possible consequences faced by inconsistent and ethically doubtful brand policies. This implication is clearly confirmed by the results of the study.

Social implications

The authors also wish to highlight the implications for practice and society. As mentioned earlier, Polish consumers involved in providing aid to victims of the war also expressed their opposition to the war by boycotting Russian products and international brands remaining in Russia. Popularization of the research results obtained by the authors can be a form of sensitizing the public to the need for long-term relief, awakening global awareness of the essence and importance of sanctions imposed on Russia, as well as the possibility of expressing opposition through individual purchasing decisions and boycotting brands still present in Russia.

Originality/value

The study allowed for identifying consumers' differentiated brand attitudes in two countries: a country inflicted by war (Ukraine) and a front-line country, strongly supporting Ukraine (Poland). The research contributes to consumer behavior theories and studies of consumer attitudes and preferences from the perspective of international corporations' CSR activities under the unique conditions of war. Also, it contributes to the knowledge of the mechanism of forming attitudes to Russian and international brands offered in Russia among CEE consumers.

Details

Central European Management Journal, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2658-0845

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 July 2023

Bishal Dey Sarkar and Laxmi Gupta

The conflict in Russian Ukraine is a problem for the world economy because it hinders growth and drives up inflation when it is already high. The trade route between India and…

Abstract

Purpose

The conflict in Russian Ukraine is a problem for the world economy because it hinders growth and drives up inflation when it is already high. The trade route between India and Russia is also impacted by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. This study aims to compile the most recent data on how the present global economic crisis is affecting it, with particular emphasis on the Indian economy.

Design/methodology/approach

This research develops a mathematical forecasting model to evaluate how the Russia-Ukraine crisis would affect the Indian economy when perturbations are applied to the major transport sectors. Input-output modeling (I-O model) and interval programing (IP) are the two precise methods used in the model. The inoperability I-O model developed by Wassily Leontief examines how disruption in one sector of the economy spreads to the other. To capture data uncertainties, IP has been added to IIM.

Findings

This study uses the forecasted inoperability value to analyze how the sectors are interconnected. Economic loss is used to determine the lowest and highest priority sectors due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis on the Indian economy. Furthermore, this study provides a decision-support conclusion for studying the sectors under various scenarios.

Research limitations/implications

In future studies, other sectors could be added to study the Russian-Ukrainian crises’ effects on the Indian economy. Perturbation is only applied to transport sectors and could be applied to other sectors for studying the effects of the crisis. The availability of incomplete data is a significant concern in this study.

Originality/value

Russia-Ukraine conflict is a significant blow to the global economy and affects the global transportation network. This study discusses the application of the IIM-IP model to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It also forecasts the values to examine how the crisis affected the Indian economy. This study uses a variety of scenarios to create a decision-support conclusion table that aids decision-makers in analyzing the Indian economy’s lowest and most affected sectors as a result of the crisis.

Details

Journal of Global Operations and Strategic Sourcing, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-5364

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 December 2022

Kawsar Uddin Mahmud and Nasrin Jabin

The Ukraine crisis, which began with Russia's military intervention, has violently jolted the modern world. The egregious Russian invasion of Ukraine, on the other hand, has…

Abstract

The Ukraine crisis, which began with Russia's military intervention, has violently jolted the modern world. The egregious Russian invasion of Ukraine, on the other hand, has arguably altered the trajectory of the world order. This whiff of war does not exclude any state because all states in the world system are economically, politically, and socially interconnected and dependent on one another. Bangladesh is also feeling the effects of the Ukraine crisis. The crisis has highlighted some challenging aspects of Bangladesh's foreign policy, testing the robustness and independence of its decision-making process regarding United Nations resolutions. Myanmar, like Bangladesh, has appeared befuddled in its response to the crisis. This paper examines how Bangladesh and Myanmar's foreign policy anticipated an unwanted labyrinth by the crisis, which made its moral credibility critical to some extent. Furthermore, the paper discusses how these two countries’ foreign policy trajectories became entangled at a difficult crossroads. We used secondary data sources backed up by scholarly works on Bangladesh and Myanmar foreign policy, relevant books, recent reports, and writings on the subject for this article. This paper also sheds light on Bangladesh's U-Turn in supporting and speaking out in support of the UN resolution on Ukraine's humanitarian crisis.

Details

Southeast Asia: A Multidisciplinary Journal, vol. 22 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1819-5091

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 January 2024

Jitendra Yadav, Kuldeep Singh, Nripendra P. Rana and Denis Dennehy

Social media has played a pivotal role in polarizing views on RussiaUkraine conflict. The effects of polarization in online interactions have been extensively studied in many…

Abstract

Purpose

Social media has played a pivotal role in polarizing views on RussiaUkraine conflict. The effects of polarization in online interactions have been extensively studied in many contexts. This research aims to examine how multiple social media sources may act as an integrator of information and act as a platform for depolarizing behaviors.

Design/methodology/approach

This study analyzes the communications of 6,662 tweets related to the sanctions imposed on Russia by using textual analytics and predictive modeling.

Findings

The research findings reveal that the tweeting behavior of netizens was depolarized because of information from multiple social media sources. However, the influx of information from non-organizational sources such as trending topics and discussions has a depolarizing impact on the user’s pre-established attitude.

Research limitations/implications

For policymakers, conflict mediators and observers, and members of society in general, there is a need for (1) continuous and consistent communication throughout the crisis, (2) transparency in the information being communicated and (3) public awareness of the polarized and conflicting information being provided from multiple actors that may be biased in the claims being made about the conflict crisis.

Originality/value

While previous research has examined RussiaUkraine conflict from a variety of perspectives, this is the first study to examine how social media might be used to reduce attitude polarization during times of conflict.

Details

Information Technology & People, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-3845

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 20 April 2023

Tuğçe Yıldız

Russia's attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, marked a very historic turning point in European security architecture. With enlarged Western aid in the immediate aftermath of the

Abstract

Russia's attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, marked a very historic turning point in European security architecture. With enlarged Western aid in the immediate aftermath of the invasion, Ukraine could have overcome somehow the crisis, yet many of its cities and infrastructure were largely destroyed and one-quarter of its citizens are now refugees and displaced. What is even more serious is that it remains unclear if and how a diplomatic solution could emerge between the parties. Russia's war against Ukraine is not an overnight event, it is a part of the story of the gradual escalation of Russian aggression on Ukraine since the beginning of the 2000s. Indeed, it is not just the result of the ideological or geopolitical competition between the West/European Union (EU) and Russia regarding their mutually exclusive or even antagonistic integration policies in the shared neighborhood. It is a more dynamic process including the agency of Ukraine with all aspects of its domestic politics and societal features, ideology, the role of energy, business links as well as the impact of regional and global dimensions. This chapter aims to overview the interlinked relationship between the EU, Ukraine, and Russia in a triadic manner within key aspects including ideology, geopolitics, energy, and integration projects and by specifically focusing on the underlying factors that have triggered the emergence of the RussiaUkraine war of 2022 and further implications for the EU politics.

Details

The European Union in the Twenty-First Century
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-80382-537-3

Keywords

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