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Article
Publication date: 18 November 2020

Thabo J. Gopane

The study presents and evaluates a proposition that there is market information bundled with the mobile money (m-money) system. Also, that such information is disseminated…

Abstract

Purpose

The study presents and evaluates a proposition that there is market information bundled with the mobile money (m-money) system. Also, that such information is disseminated to farmers in the process of their normal financial transactions and business interactions. This market information is important to mitigate the price uncertainty of farm products.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical analysis is conducted with a two-stage econometric procedure. First, a probit model is used to estimate the likelihood of m-money take-up by farm entrepreneurs. Second, the ordinary least squares model is used to regress the farming price uncertainty index on the m-money take-up, which is quantified with a set of predicted values from the probit model in the first stage. The data used in econometric estimation come from Kenya's FinAccess Household Survey published in 2016.

Findings

The results of this paper show a negative effect of m-money service take-up on the price uncertainty index. A one unit increase in the m-money system is associated with a 12% reduction in the price uncertainty index. The authors interpret this as saying that access to the m-money system by farm business has a beneficial spillover effect on product risk mitigation, ceteris paribus.

Research limitations/implications

The implication of this research is that policy initiatives which support farm entrepreneurs to access the m-money system should be encouraged not only for their financial inclusion advantage but also for their positive externality on product risk amelioration for rural farm businesses.

Originality/value

The paper introduces an idea that the m-money system is bundled with relevant information for mitigating price risk to the benefit of rural farm businesses.

Details

Agricultural Finance Review, vol. 81 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0002-1466

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 1 February 2022

Khumbulani L. Masuku and Thabo J. Gopane

The study considers time-varying risk premium in investigating the capability of technical analysis (TA) to predict and outperform a buy–hold strategy in Bitcoin exchange…

Abstract

Purpose

The study considers time-varying risk premium in investigating the capability of technical analysis (TA) to predict and outperform a buy–hold strategy in Bitcoin exchange rate returns.

Design/methodology/approach

The study tests the technical trading rule of fixed moving average (FMA) on daily actual and equilibrium returns of Bitcoin exchange rates. The equilibrium returns are computed using dynamic CAPM in conjunction with a VAR-MGARCH (1, 1) system. The empirical evaluation of the study uses a case study of four Bitcoin exchange rates (BTC/AUD, BTC/EUR, BTC/JPY and BTC/ZAR) for the period 19 June 2010 to 30 October 2020.

Findings

The findings are consistent with related studies in conventional foreign exchange markets that find TA to be profitable, especially in emerging markets. Nevertheless, the consideration of risk premium has the effect of reducing the abnormal returns. Also, further robust tests reveal that Bitcoin returns possess a momentum effect which prompts further study in efficient market hypothesis research.

Practical implications

The empirical findings of this study should benefit portfolio managers and active investors on the strength of TA to predict returns in a speculative market like the Bitcoin exchange rate market.

Originality/value

The study takes cognisance that cryptocurrency trading is speculative in nature which renders it a good candidate for TA methods. While there are studies that have explored the value of TA in Bitcoin exchange rates, these studies fail to incorporate the effects of time-varying risk premiums, the strength and focus of the current paper.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. 6 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 25 February 2022

225

Abstract

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. 6 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

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