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Article
Publication date: 3 April 2017

James R. DeLisle and Terry V. Grissom

The purpose of this paper is to investigate changes in the commercial real estate market dynamics as a function of and conditional to the shifts in market state-space…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate changes in the commercial real estate market dynamics as a function of and conditional to the shifts in market state-space environment that can influence agent responses.

Design/methodology/approach

The analytical design uses a comparative computational experiment to address the performance of property assets in the current market based on comparison with prior structural patterns. The latent variables developed across market sectors are used to test agent behavior contingent on the perspectives of capital asset pricing conditionals (CAPM) and a behavioral momentum/herd construct. The state-space momentum analysis can assist the comparative analysis of current levels and shifts in property asset performance given the issues that have arisen with the financial crisis of 2007-2009.

Findings

An analytic approach is employed framed by a situation-dependent model. This frame considers risk profiles characterizing the perspectives and preferences guiding a delineated market state. This perspective is concerned with the possibility of shifts in market momentum and representativeness conditioning investor expectations. It is observed that the current market (post-crisis) has changed significantly from the prior operations (despite the diversity observed in prior market states). The dynamics of initial findings required an additional test anchored to the performance of the general capital market and the real economy across time. This context supports the use of a modified CAPM model allowing the consideration of opportunity cost in a space-time dynamic anchored with the consideration of equity, debt, riskless asset and liquidity options as they varied for the representative agents operating per market state.

Research limitations/implications

This paper integrates neoclassical and behavioral economic constructs. Combines asset pricing with prospect theory and allows the calculation of endogenous time-preferences, risk attitudes and formulation and testing of hyperbolic discounting functions.

Practical implications

The research shows that market structure and agent behavior since the financial crisis has changed from the investment and valuation perspectives operating as observed and measured from 1970 up to 2007. In contradiction to the long-term findings of Reinhart and Rogoff (2008), but in compliance with common perspectives and decision heuristics often employed by investors, this time things have changed! Discounting and expected rates of return are dynamic and are hyperbolic and not constant. Returns and investment for property assets are situational (market state-space specific) and offer a distinct asset class, not appropriately estimated by many of the traditional financial models.

Social implications

Assist in supporting insights to measure in errors and equations that result in inefficient resource allocation and beta discounting that supports the financial crisis created by assets subject to long-term decision needs (delta function).

Originality/value

The paper offers a combination and comparison of neoclassic asset pricing using a modified CAPM (two-pass) approach within the structural frame of Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) prospect theory. This technique allows the consideration of the effects of present bias, beta-delta functions and the operation of the Allais Paradox in market states that are characterized by gains and losses and thus risk aversion and risk seeking behavior. This ability for differentiation allows for the development of endogenous time-preferences and hyperbolic discounting factors characteristic of commercial property investment.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 35 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

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Article
Publication date: 12 July 2011

James DeLisle and Terry Grissom

Current economic conditions have identified a complication if not conflict in the application of valuation analysis assumptions with the free fall in asset prices observed…

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1993

Abstract

Purpose

Current economic conditions have identified a complication if not conflict in the application of valuation analysis assumptions with the free fall in asset prices observed since 2007. Discrepancies in debt obligations (from prior periods) with underlying collateral value have been opined to be an unforeseen anomaly. This investigation aims to observe an alternative perspective using data from 1900 to the present.

Design/methodology/approach

This 110‐year period of observation shows that return (value) volatility is the characteristic norm of the market system. Showing volatility as a fundamental characteristic of economic and property performance supports conjecture by definition, observation and rationality that valuation analysis had to be successfully employed in prior down cycles and across divergent economic regimes. A systematic literature search was conducted to identify the application of specific value theory, premises and concepts with appropriate valuation techniques in given economic regimes. The variables derived from the literature and practices observed and designated as operating across time emphasizing recorded recessions are then tested for statistically significant associations using χ2 tests.

Findings

The findings show that traditional value techniques are successfully applied in stabilized and even accelerated growth periods, but weaken and even break down during down markets. Alternative approaches and techniques are emphasized and developed during these periods that address specific problems but are befitting more general issues. The alternative perspectives are then observed to operate, generating much debate for extended periods. They are then incorporated as orthodox or disappear as issues. This study identifies a statistical link between the economic and valuation concerns of the Great Depression of the 1930s and the current Great Recession of 2007‐2009. The more relevant finding, however, is that the period following the depression of the 1930s, which shows a period characterized as using innovation and alternative valuation techniques, was continued into a period that ran from the 1950s into the mid‐1990s. This was a period of stabilization, at least into the early 1980s. The deregulation of the 1980s generated a period of fewer cycles but major magnitude shifts in the less frequent measures of volatility. Unfortunately, the sophistication in debate concerning valuation procedure and valuation premises, as statistically measured, declined from the 1990s into the present period. The present economy reflects statistical measures similar to those observed from 1900‐1930.

Originality/value

Given the 110 years considered in the study, the findings should not be considered original with regard to assisting the general welfare or professional decision making. However, given that the market shifted from being a useful institution to assist in the allocation and distribution of property to being a religious caveat that could only result in perfect solutions to solve all social needs, wants and ills, the findings emphasizing valuation techniques based on rational value premises that can operate to assist inference of future events subject to divergent and cyclical operations might be calmed to offer very useful assistance with procedure based on fundamentals and expression of behaviour that has long been vilified. The uses of the patterns identified in this study need to be incorporated into causal analysis.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 29 no. 4/5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

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Article
Publication date: 23 July 2020

James R. DeLisle, Terry V. Grissom and Brent Never

The purpose of this study is to explore spatiotemporal factors that affect the empirical analysis of whether crime rates in buffer areas surrounding abandoned properties…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to explore spatiotemporal factors that affect the empirical analysis of whether crime rates in buffer areas surrounding abandoned properties transferred to a Land Bank that differed among three regimes: before transfer, during Land Bank stewardship and after disposition and whether those differences were associated with differences in relative crime activity in the neighborhoods in which they were located.

Design/methodology/approach

This study analyzed crime incidents occurring between 2010 and 2018 in 0.1-mile buffer areas surrounding 31 abandoned properties sold by the Land Bank and their neighborhoods in which those properties were located. Using Copulas, researchers compared concordance/discordance in the buffer areas across the three regime states for each property and approximately matched time periods for associated neighborhoods.

Findings

In a substantial number of cases, the relative crime activity levels for buffer areas surrounding individual sold properties as measured by the Copulas shifted from concordant to discordant states and vice versa. Similarly, relative crime activity levels for neighborhoods shifted from concordant to discordant states across three matched regimes. In some cases, the property and neighborhood states matched, while in other cases they diverged. These cross-level interactions indicate that criminal behavioral patterns and target selection change over time and relative criminal activity. The introduction of Copulas can improve the reliability of such models over time and when and where they should be customized to add more granular insights needed by law enforcement agencies.

Research limitations/implications

The introduction of Copulas can improve the spatiotemporal reliability of the analysis of criminal activity over space and time.

Practical implications

Spatiotemporal considerations should be incorporated in setting interventions to manage criminal activity.

Social implications

This study provides support for policies supporting renovation of abandoned properties.

Originality/value

To the best of authors’ knowledge, this research is the first application of Copulas to crime impact studies. As noted, Copulas can help reduce the risk of applying intervention or enforcement programs that are no longer reliable or lack the precision provided by insights into convergent/divergent patterns of criminal activity.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research , vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

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Article
Publication date: 4 May 2020

James R. DeLisle, Brent Never and Terry V. Grissom

The paper explores the emergence of the “big data regime” and the disruption that it is causing for the real estate industry. The paper defines big data and illustrates…

Abstract

Purpose

The paper explores the emergence of the “big data regime” and the disruption that it is causing for the real estate industry. The paper defines big data and illustrates how an inductive, big data approach can help improve decision-making.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper demonstrates how big data can support inductive reasoning that can lead to enhanced real estate decisions. To help readers understand the dynamics and drivers of the big data regime shift, an extensive list of hyperlinks is included.

Findings

The paper concludes that it is possible to blend traditional and non-traditional data into a unified data environment to support enhanced decision-making. Through the application of design thinking, the paper illustrates how socially responsible development can be targeted to under-served urban areas and helps serve residents and the communities in which they live.

Research limitations/implications

The paper demonstrates how big data can be harnessed to support decision-making using a hypothetical project. The paper does not present advanced analytics but focuses aggregating disparate longitudinal data that could support such analysis in future research.

Practical implications

The paper focuses on the US market, but the methodology can be extended to other markets where big data is increasingly available.

Social implications

The paper illustrates how big data analytics can be used to help serve the needs of marginalized residents and tenants, as well as blighted areas.

Originality/value

This paper documents the big data movement and demonstrates how non-traditional data can support decision-making.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 38 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

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Article
Publication date: 20 July 2010

Terry V. Grissom, James N. Berry and Lay Cheng J. Lim

The purpose of this paper is to integrate land use and option pricing theories using case study analyses to compare a portfolio of uses comprising single and mixed‐use…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to integrate land use and option pricing theories using case study analyses to compare a portfolio of uses comprising single and mixed‐use development on the same site and assess the effects on the risk‐return profile of potential development schemes. The integration of land use development based on highest and best use (HBU) is tested against a combination of uses on the selected sites at a point in time in the downswing of the real estate cycle.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed methodology integrates the development valuation approach with option theory in which both consider the relationships of cost and value associated with alternative development options. The approach used in this paper addresses the broader consideration of project coordination inclusive of land use flexibility and opportunity costs endogenously associated with development strategies. By investigating the uncertainty of economic options specific to the development process, the methodology considers the significance of complementary components of strategic decisions and entrepreneurial effort within a return/risk management strategy.

Findings

The stochastic model when compared to the real option model enhances strategic decisions and development project management by allowing the consideration of single/mixed‐use alternatives. The development process is facilitated by the research findings whereby alternative uses are tested to maximise the potential use of the site. The analyses consider optimal funding strategies in developing and investing for a range of use options on regeneration sites.

Practical implications

The significant insights apparent from the research is the quantification of the strategic specification of development as a productive process and an investment endeavour. The proposed model enables a comparison of a HBU based on a single development, a mixed‐use development or a combination of uses as the difference between the scenarios impacts on land value and profit measures, especially where these measures are calculated as distributive residuals.

Originality/value

The stochastic model developed in this paper provides a value‐added contribution to real estate literature by considering the complexity of the interrelationships between urban land economics, land use theory, valuation appraisal methodologies, portfolio analysis and option pricing as applied in the development of regeneration schemes.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 22 June 2012

Peadar Davis, William McCluskey, Terry V. Grissom and Michael McCord

This paper seeks to examine the potential for simplified market value and non market value based banded approaches to be utilised for residential property tax purposes…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper seeks to examine the potential for simplified market value and non market value based banded approaches to be utilised for residential property tax purposes. The broad aim is to ascertain whether relatively low complexity approaches to establishing a property tax base can perform adequately in comparison to established best practice – in essence whether there is evidence of equifinality (equivalent performance from approaches of substantially different complexity) between simpler and more complex approaches.

Design/methodology/approach

The research comprises empirical analysis of a database of property sales and property attribute data drawn from a UK District Council area. Several simplified methods are used to create different tax base scenarios and the outflowing tax incidence is compared with that of using a complex, industry standard market value approach. The methods of comparison are regression and spline regression based models testing for tax inequity, drawn from the literature. The approach here differs from previous work in that it occurs at the actual tax bill level allowing the comparison of value, non‐value and banded approaches.

Findings

The findings of the research indicate that simplified approaches to establishing a property tax base can perform in a broadly similar fashion to more complex systems currently practiced in developed economies and therefore evidence of equifinality exists.

Practical implications

The research provides useful tools to property tax policy makers and practitioners in developing and transitional economies in furthering their aspirations of embedding robust property taxes for the furtherance of socio‐economic and political development and the general wellbeing of society and they are of value to property tax policy makers and to academics in the field.

Originality/value

The paper provides evidence of the efficacy of simplified and banded approaches as an option for jurisdictions in developing and transitional economic circumstances or elsewhere in circumstances which mitigate against full scale appraisal of the property tax base to discrete market values. The approaches and techniques pioneered open up opportunities to carry out a range of new comparative analysis of tax base options.

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Article
Publication date: 20 July 2010

Stanley McGreal

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286

Abstract

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

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Article
Publication date: 10 June 2014

Clive M.J. Warren

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1093

Abstract

Details

Property Management, vol. 32 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

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Article
Publication date: 4 May 2012

Terry Grissom, Lay Cheng Lim and James DeLisle

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the strategy that a turnaround in the USA will portend a turnaround in the UK's economy and property market. For this strategy…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the strategy that a turnaround in the USA will portend a turnaround in the UK's economy and property market. For this strategy to operate, it is assumed that the capital and property markets in and between the two nations are highly integrated with endogenous pricing functions.

Design/methodology/approach

Given the endogenous assumptions of the conjectured research statement, tests of integration (or segmentation) between two capital and property markets are conducted. Correlation, tracking error analysis, and a multiple systematic risk factor model are used to test the pricing relationships. The methodological form employs variant macroeconomic variable pricing models (MVM) of alternative combinations of systematic affects operating across and between the national markets.

Findings

Pricing integration is noted between the UK and US capital markets, while the property markets are economically and statistically segmented. Opportunities for arbitrage based on different prices/returns for equivalent risk exposures are statistically observed between the UK and USA. The effect is that systematic pricing between the two markets cannot be addressed solely by diversification options. This infers a potential for arbitrage (statistically, strategically or in practice) is possible, given that systematic risk exposures between the two markets are not equivalently priced across cyclical phases. In this context it is inferred that the probable measure of pricing differences across the two markets is more than a cyclical lag effect.

Originality/value

The paper delineates the degrees of integration/segmentation in the UK and US property and capital markets as a function of systematic risks in changing economic conditions. These differences support the existence of statistical arbitrage and the specification of investment behaviour as a function of differencing pricing expectations. These findings can assist in the formulation of investment and hedging strategies to assist in managing international portfolios subject to cyclical market exposures. This paper contributes to an understanding of and foundation for testing the nature and impact of cycles on property investment performance as a function of pricing changes.

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Article
Publication date: 1 February 2013

James DeLisle, Terry Grissom and Lovisa Högberg

The purpose of this paper is to explore the notion of sustainability and research reporting price premiums for LEED‐certified buildings.

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2283

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore the notion of sustainability and research reporting price premiums for LEED‐certified buildings.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper explores the notion of sustainability and research reporting price premiums for LEED‐certified buildings. The durability of certification levels is explored by converting projects developed under the initial NC2‐series system to a new vintage rating adopted in 2009. This conversion is made by applying Lagrangian multipliers to model stochastic impacts.

Findings

The study reveals that 18 percent of 591 projects developed under the NC2‐Series were “misclassified” in terms of certification levels when converted to new NCv2009 standards. To the extent the market has pursued LEED certification levels, the unanticipated changes may have led to the adoption short‐term solutions that are inappropriate due to the long‐term nature of real estate assets.

Research limitations/implications

Given the complexity of the LEED rating system, it is unknown how the market will react to the lack of durability and approach pricing over the long‐term.

Practical implications

The results indicate market participants should adopt a proactive approach to LEED certification.

Originality/value

The study identifies significant dynamics in the LEED certification system for new construction and behavioural responses that have not been reported in the literature.

Details

Journal of Property Investment & Finance, vol. 31 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-578X

Keywords

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