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Article
Publication date: 4 May 2012

Patricia Fraser, Martin Hoesli and Lynn McAlevey

The purpose of this paper is to compare responses of house prices in three important markets when faced with permanent and temporary shocks to income. It additionally decomposes…

1857

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to compare responses of house prices in three important markets when faced with permanent and temporary shocks to income. It additionally decomposes each historical house price series into its permanent, temporary and deterministic components.

Design/methodology/approach

Using quarterly data over 1973‐2008, two‐variable systems of house prices and income are specified for three major house‐owning economies: New Zealand (NZ), the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States of America (USA).

Findings

NZ and UK housing markets are sensitive to both permanent and temporary shocks to income, while the US market reacts to temporary shocks with the permanent component having a largely insignificant role to play in house price composition. In NZ, the temporary component of house prices has tended to be positive over time, pushing prices higher than they would have been otherwise; while in the UK, both permanent and temporary components have tended to reinforce each other.

Originality/value

The paper uses state‐of‐the‐art methods to analyse the relationships between income and house prices in three economies.

Details

Journal of European Real Estate Research, vol. 5 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-9269

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 9 April 2021

Kurtulus Bozkurt, Hatice Armutçuoğlu Tekin and Zeliha Can Ergün

This study aims to measure the relationship between demand and exchange rate shocks in the tourism industry.

1623

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to measure the relationship between demand and exchange rate shocks in the tourism industry.

Design/methodology/approach

A panel data set is constructed covering the period between 1995 and 2017, and the data set includes the top 26 countries that host 10 million tourists and above in the world as of 2017. The standard errors of the series are used as an indicator of shocks. First, the cross-sectional dependency, stationarity and the homogeneity of the series are examined; second, a panel cointegration analysis is implemented; third, long-term panel cointegration coefficients are analyzed with Dynamic Common Correlated Effects (DCCE) approach; and, finally, Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s (2012) Granger non-causality test is used to detect the causality.

Findings

The preliminary analyses show that the variables are cross-sectional dependent and heterogeneous and are stationary in their first difference; hence, the effects of the shocks are temporary. On the other hand, as a result of the panel cointegration analysis, it is found that both series are cointegrated over the long-term. However, the long-term coefficients estimated with the DCCE approach are found not to be statistically significant. Finally, as a result of the Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s (2012) Granger non-causality test, it is concluded that there is a causality running from exchange rate shocks to demand shocks.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the cointegration between the tourism demand shocks and exchange rates shocks has not been investigated before, and therefore, this study is considered to be a pioneering study that will contribute to the literature.

Details

Applied Economic Analysis, vol. 29 no. 86
Type: Research Article
ISSN:

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 August 1998

Michael Funke and Stephen Hall

UK regional data on GDP and the GDP deflator are analysed to extract information on underlying demand and supply shocks as well as aggregate demand and supply shocks

3058

Abstract

UK regional data on GDP and the GDP deflator are analysed to extract information on underlying demand and supply shocks as well as aggregate demand and supply shocks. Identification is achieved using long run restrictions, based on a theoretical model. The main results are that the supply shocks are almost completely symmetric across UK regions and that there is no evidence of these shocks being propagated slowly across the regions.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 25 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 September 2017

Alexandre Gohin and Jean Cordier

The role that speculation in futures markets plays during food price spikes is a subject of lively dispute. This issue is often addressed with empirical analyses. They suffer from…

Abstract

Purpose

The role that speculation in futures markets plays during food price spikes is a subject of lively dispute. This issue is often addressed with empirical analyses. They suffer from data limitations and focus on the short-term impacts. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors develop a theoretical model to explain the behaviour of speculators and producers in futures and cash markets. Compared to the only two theoretical analyses by Vercammen and Doroudian where informational externalities are excluded and by Fishe et al. where production responses are excluded, the authors introduce both informational externalities and lagged production responses.

Findings

The authors find that the expanded net long positions of commodity index funds (CIF) are inconsistent with lower stock levels that typically prevail before the price spikes. These positions stimulate production, hence stocks, before the price spikes. Thus they contribute to soften the price volatility.

Practical implications

The simulation results indicate that before imposing new regulations on financial markets, such as position limits on index funds, their beneficial medium-term effect as a hedging instrument for commercial participants should not be omitted or underestimated.

Originality/value

Because the authors develop a second-best theoretical framework, the authors find that CIF are not a systematic cause of medium-term market swings.

Details

Agricultural Finance Review, vol. 77 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0002-1466

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 February 1988

Anthony Clunies Ross

The assignment of targets to instruments in developing countries cannot satisfactorily follow any simple universal rule. Which approach is appropriate is influenced by whether the…

273

Abstract

The assignment of targets to instruments in developing countries cannot satisfactorily follow any simple universal rule. Which approach is appropriate is influenced by whether the economy is dominated by primary exports, by the importance of the domestic bond market and bank credit, by the extent of existing restriction in foreign exchange and financial markets, by the presence or absence of persistent high inflation, and by the existence or non‐existence of an active international market in the country's currency. Eighteen observations and maxims on stabilisation policy are tentatively drawn (pp. 64–8) from the material reviewed, and the maxims are partly summarised (pp. 69–71) in a schematic assignment, with variations, of targets to instruments.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 1 July 2015

Tiziana Assenza, Michele Berardi and Domenico Delli Gatti

Should the central bank target asset price inflation? In their 1999 paper Bernanke and Gertler claimed that price stability and financial stability are “mutually consistent…

Abstract

Should the central bank target asset price inflation? In their 1999 paper Bernanke and Gertler claimed that price stability and financial stability are “mutually consistent objectives” in a flexible inflation targeting regime which “dictates that central banks … should not respond to changes in asset prices.” This conclusion is straightforward within their framework in which asset price inflation shows up as a factor “augmenting” the IS curve. In this chapter, we pursue a different modeling strategy so that, in the end, asset price dynamics will be incorporated into the NK Phillips curve. We put ourselves, therefore, in the best position to obtain a significant stabilizing role for asset price targeting. It turns out, however, that inflation volatility is higher in the asset price targeting case. After all, therefore, targeting asset prices may not be a good idea.

Details

Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-779-6

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 1 November 2011

John Pawley and Ernst Juerg Weber

The vintage model of capital accumulation predicts that technical progress depends on the installation of new capital equipment. In this chapter it is found that investment raises…

Abstract

The vintage model of capital accumulation predicts that technical progress depends on the installation of new capital equipment. In this chapter it is found that investment raises labor productivity in the G7 countries and Australia. This finding implies that the decline in investment during the global financial crisis will have a long lasting detrimental effect on labor productivity and hence wages.

Article
Publication date: 16 May 2016

Douglas Chun

The purpose of this paper is to consider the linkages between two theories of firm performance, aspiration theory and the resource-based view (RBV), possible ways in which these…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to consider the linkages between two theories of firm performance, aspiration theory and the resource-based view (RBV), possible ways in which these theories may interact, and how the culture from which the firm originated can be a factor in how the firm may react to Schumpeterian shock issues suggested in RBV of the firm.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper takes a theoretical approach.

Findings

Firms generally look to firms sharing their own cultural backgrounds when selecting similar others. However when the environment is no longer beneficial to firms sharing these goals and objectives, the focal firm may consider firms from other cultural backgrounds when forming aspiration levels.

Research limitations/implications

Empirical studies would be necessary to verify these finding: do firms show a preference to firms from their own cultural backgrounds when choosing firms to serve as reference groups for goals and objectives? Would Schumpeterian Shocks cause firms to seek other firms outside of their own culture to set new goals and objectives?

Practical implications

Firms should be aware of their own possible biases when deciding which firms to base its goals and objectives on, and widen the cultural scope of their competitive views to include firms from other cultural backgrounds, diversifying their repertoire of strategies and improving the survivability of the organization.

Originality/value

The combination of different managerial theories is not common in management literature, and the author was unable to find an article combining the RBV, Aspiration Theory and cultural theories. If management theories are valid, then it is important to understand the relationships between these theories.

Details

Journal of Strategy and Management, vol. 9 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-425X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 7 August 2007

Pär Sjölander

In what seems as an infinitely ongoing debate regarding the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory, this paper seeks to question the strength of the scientific “evidence” put…

1800

Abstract

Purpose

In what seems as an infinitely ongoing debate regarding the purchasing power parity (PPP) theory, this paper seeks to question the strength of the scientific “evidence” put forward by the PPP revisionists

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, the validity of the PPP revisionists' scientific evidence supporting long‐run PPP is questioned based on the replication of an influential review study that is considered by PPP revisionists to exhibit “some of the strongest evidence” in favour of the PPP theory.

Findings

By simulation experiments it is demonstrated that the traditional PPP unit root tests are non‐robust to the empirically identified (G)ARCH distortions. Due to (G)ARCH distortions, over‐rejections for the traditional unit root tests are shown to be a problem that potentially misleads researchers to believe that long‐run PPP holds under circumstances when it is in fact not valid. As a potential remedy to this problem, a new unit root test is introduced which is robust to conditional heteroscedasticity disturbances, and in contrast to traditional unit root tests, it exhibits no significant empirical support for the PPP theory.

Originality/value

The study illustrates that the PPP revisionists' unit root tests cannot reliably test the PPP hypothesis in the presence of (G)ARCH distortions, due to bad power and size properties. Perhaps it is time to conclude that, based on the currently existing research, it is virtually impossible to empirically come to a credible conclusion regarding whether long‐run PPP holds or not.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 34 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 6 August 2020

Todd Kuethe and Todd Hubbs

This study examines the relationship between economic fluctuations and financial distress in the US agricultural sector, which is associated with a large degree of financial…

Abstract

Purpose

This study examines the relationship between economic fluctuations and financial distress in the US agricultural sector, which is associated with a large degree of financial instability.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors developed a parsimonious model of economic fluctuations in the US agricultural sector. The authors used statistical filter methods to identify the co-movement in cyclical fluctuations in real, cumulative growth rates in farm real estate values, farm sector debt and leverage.

Findings

The proposed model closely approximated the financial evolution of the US agricultural sector between 1960 and 2018. In addition, the authors proved that the proposed model is an early warning indicator of farm loan delinquencies and farm bankruptcies.

Originality/value

This study exploits recent advances in economic theory and empirical macroeconomic modeling to develop a model that is a robust predictor of financial distress in the agricultural sector. Further, the authors demonstrate that the policy interventions following the 1980s farm financial crisis demonstrate the likely long-run economic response to the policies enacted following the 2008 financial crisis.

Details

Agricultural Finance Review, vol. 81 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0002-1466

Keywords

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