Search results

Inspired by new findings on and perceptions of risk governance, such as the necessity of taking a broader perspective in coping with risks in companies and working together in interactive groups with various stakeholders to deal with complex risks in the modern world, the purpose of this paper is looking for new ways to deal with financial risks. Current methods dealing with those risks are confronted with the problems of being primarily based on past data and experience, neglecting the need for objectivity, focusing on the short-term future and disregarding the interconnectedness of different financial risk categories.

A literature review of risk governance, financial risk management and open foresight was executed to conceptualize solutions to the mentioned-above problems.

Collaborative financial risk assessment (CFRA) is a promising approach in financial risk governance with respect to overcoming said problems. It is a method of risk identification and assessment, which combines aspects of “open foresight” and the financial risk management and governance literature. CFRA is characterized as bringing together members of different companies in trying to detect weak signals and trends to gain knowledge about the future, which helps companies to reduce financial risks and increase the chance of gaining economic value. By overcoming organizational boundaries, individual companies may gain the knowledge they would probably not have without CFRA and achieve a competitive advantage.

A conceptual paper like the one at hand wants empirical proof. Therefore, the authors developed a research agenda in the form of five propositions for further research.

This paper discusses the existing problems of financial risk identification and assessment methods. It contributes to the existing literature by proposing CFRA as a solution to those problems and adding a new perspective to financial risk governance.

The purpose of this study is to measure the predictive value of future scenarios prepared using horizon scanning. The future scenarios prepared at the initiative of the Japanese Government have had low predictive value. They have frequently failed to contribute to industrial development and caused social loss. Horizon scanning, which is a key methodology applied in foresight activities, has begun to be used in countries as part of their national innovation systems in lieu of conventional forecasting methods based on the assumption of technological innovation. Research was conducted to actually measure the predictive value of future scenarios prepared using horizon scanning.

An online survey in Japan was conducted on ordinary people’s attitudes. The questionnaires presented 20 scenarios regarding future society, which were created with the conventional method or horizon scanning method.

Survey results verified that horizon scanning-based scenarios provided significantly higher predictive value than scenarios prepared using conventional methods.

Implication 1: By eliminating bias in input data and perspectives adopted when considering scenarios, it may be expected that scenarios will be derived that have even higher “predictive value.” Implication 2: By setting the layers of anticipated outputs high and the fields broad, it may be expected that scenarios will be derived that have even greater “change.”

The relatively high rate for the predictive value of the horizon scanning method, more than 40%, validated in this study was significant.

The purpose of this paper is to present the changes in political and socioeconomic conditions after 25 years of transformation and how it provided to adopt new methodology in tourism planning. It shows the possibilities offered by the use of the foresight process in planning the development of tourism in Poland. Since one of the main foresight goals is to identify trends, the paper takes attempt to verify trends that occurred in Poland after 1989 and if they have now and will have in the near future influence on Polish tourism. Detailed objective is to characterize the systemic transformation and its impact on the tourism economy.

Paper is the review, which used literature, legislation and strategic documents query. It also includes comparative analysis.

The analysis of the political and economic changes that have taken place in Poland over the last 25 years shows that they were positive for the development of tourism base. The impact of globalization and global trends is now clearly noticeable also in Poland. Political and economic changes allow the use of foresight methodology in studies on the future of tourism while maintaining its main attributes: anticipation, participation, action, networking, vision.

The analysis included the impact of political changes and social trends on the tourist economy. Proposals that show the positive aspects of these changes relate to tourism and present extensive opportunities to create scenarios, both at the national and regional levels.

The analysis forms the basis for the activities of tourism entities in Poland. It shows the characteristics for the future of the tourism market particularly the demand side.

The analysis of changes in systemic and social trends enables anticipation of changes in tourism as a social phenomenon.

The paper presents the historical basis for the development of tourism in Poland after political changes in relation to the planning of tourism by using the methodology of foresight. It also presents these phenomena and social trends that have an impact on the development of tourism.