Search results

This study aims to present a method to carry out technological foresight exercises in university technological research and development centers (TRDCs). The results support the organizational planning process.

The authors review the literature on the frameworks of foresight. The authors propose the use of quantitative (bibliometrics) and qualitative (expert meeting, Delphi) techniques. The authors apply this method to each research topic of interest of the TRDCs.

The application of the method to a research topic allows us to analyze the relevant knowledge areas for the development of that topic and its global trend. For each area, the authors identify the specific lines of research with the greatest growth and relevance. Considering these lines, the authors make a diagnosis of the TRDC situation regarding how to provide knowledge to decision-makers.

The paper reviews the results of the application in the Engineering Institute of the National Autonomous University of Mexico and in the research topic “Seismic risks in civil engineering.” It is necessary to adjust the application of the method in other TRDCs to the conditions of the organization and to the development achieved by the TRDCs in the analyzed research topic.

There is no detailed literature on technological foresight exercises in university TRDCs that support the planning process of the organization. The method represents a proposal to establish priority research topics and specific research lines in research institutes, particularly universities. The authors present the application in a university TRDCs in Mexico.

This paper aims to present a methodology for technological foresight and technological scanning based on S&T and knowledge indicators.

This proposal considers S&T and knowledge indicators, such as a patents indicator (technology), research and development indicator (science) and competencies indicator (human resources). International databases and a data‐and text‐mining tool are used to build up knowledge maps and reference tables to support decision making.

This study provides information about the use of technological foresight and technological scanning using the biotechnology in the health sector as a case study. In this paper, the trends observed in patents and articles worldwide clearly show the growth in biotechnology, which points to the need to prioritize this area, as well as opening up a variety of opportunities, especially when one considers the human competencies already consolidated in Brazilian universities and research institutes, which could be better harnessed by industry and could help ensure greater innovation and competitiveness.

The paper presents a methodology for the effective support of decision taking during the prioritization of strategic and/or technological areas by visualizing potential markets and partnership opportunities. Furthermore, it emphasizes the role of biotechnology as a catalyst for S&T and innovations in the world.

This paper aims to discuss the dynamic interactions among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies, resulting in a framework that can help companies to shape these interactions for achieving positive outcomes.

This conceptual paper is based on prior literature streams, which were interrelated through an abductive research process. This iterative conceptualization approach led to the formation of testable propositions that advance the understanding on the interactions among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies.

The framework demonstrates the existence of an actions cycle between strategic foresight and knowledge management through a constructivist perspective, where one can improve the other. These interactions can be useful both for the development of emerging technologies and for identifying these innovations in market that can be applied in companies. Hence, all these dynamic interactions do not point to a hegemonic relationship of one construct over the others, but for the value equality among them.

Although current literature points to the existence of relationships among knowledge management, strategic foresight and emerging technologies, the dynamism inherent in these interactions as well as their positive effects for companies’ results are not properly discussed. This paper fills such a gap and proposes directions for future research.

The purpose of this paper is to provide information about the long-term ex-post impacts of Vision 2023 technology foresight (TF) on the defense sector and to identify critical success factors (CSFs) of impactful foresight.

In the present research, a theory-based evaluation approach was adopted with the logic-model of defense TF to identify the intended outcomes, impacts and leading mechanisms. The impact assessment framework developed by Johnston, R. (2012) was adopted to identify (un)intended impacts and possible measures.

TF had some effects on technological developments, foresight capacity and capability and skills on the sector. The overall impact was assessed at the “some contribution” level with 2.9 out of 5.0 points. It contributed to the development of science technology and innovation (STI) policies and research and development programs, awareness-raising in STI, increase in cooperation between government-university-industry and the development of foresight culture. However, the impacts were more visible in the early years of TF. Additionally, country/sector-specific CSFs were identified. In consequence, it was proposed to measure the maturity of strategic technologies with technology readiness level as a tangible indicator.

According to the authors, this is the first study to assess the long-term ex-post impact of TF in defense. An instrument was developed to assess TF’s contribution to impact measures. The constructs and weights of the instrument differentiated from the adopted framework/schema reflecting the national/sectoral context of TF. Additionally, the study revealed country/sector-specific CSFs and new tangible impact measures.

This paper aims to describe and discuss the architecture of Russia’s Technology Foresight System (TFS). This paper introduces the reader to the integration of the TFS into the public administration system and, specifically, into the national strategic planning system.

To do so, the authors fall back on more than 10 years of experience in performing foresight exercises for Russian policy makers of their institution.

Thereby, the paper highlights the implications arising from the interaction between sectoral and national components of TFS and on application of the results of foresight studies (implemented within the framework of TFS) for the strategic planning.

Russia has a long history of technological planning and forecasting and engages regularly in extensive foresight activities of both national and sectoral relevance. Also, Russia’s leadership repeatedly stresses the importance of such foresight activities which are outlined by a national law since 2014.

Many devices needed electrical power to work, thus, major energy carriers such as oil and gas were used to generate electrical power via converter mechanisms and special technologies. The microturbine is a developed technology that is remarkable for its relatively high performance and ability to use several types of fuels. Microturbines are economically feasible because of the production of combined heat and power and small-scale applicability. This study aims to investigate microturbine technology development to support modern energy access in a developing country (i.e. Iran).

This paper presents a technology foresight methodology to create plausible futures of microturbine development in Iran when the country faces different driving forces and uncertainties. On other hand, the paper deals with a theoretical question: how to select appropriate foresight methodology? A procedure is proposed, which equipped the research team to select appropriate method combinations based on Popper’s diamond. Finally, the selected methodology includes defining focal issues environmental scanning and patent analysis aimed at developing five plausible scenarios for microturbine development future in Iran and creating shared visions among policymakers.

This paper proposed a series of scenarios on the path to developing microturbine technology. The scenario development logic in a participatory way contains a common four-quarter technique that attempts to depict scenarios based on two critical uncertainties inclusive energy price and technology obsolescence, which will shape the future. Also, a scenario is presented to describe a wild card that can disturb the desired futures. Such materials help decision-makers to policies under plausible conditions that guarantee a robust policy basket.

The originality of this paper can be studied based on two aspects, first, the methodology that provides a systematic method selections procedure in an emerging complex technology development program. Second, from the practical aspect, this paper is one of the very first attempts to manage the microturbine technology development program. Then, results are used to feed the policy-making process in Iran.

This paper aims to provide a detailed case study of a corporate foresight for innovation (CFI) project done by the Higher School of Economics’ (HSE) (Moscow, Russia) corporate foresight (CF) unit for a large state-owned Russian service company. It demonstrates how CFI methods lead to recommendations and how these recommendations result in decisions.

Drawing from being part of the project team, review of the project documents and interviews, the case describes a multi-phased CFI project which incorporated several CF methods. Techniques used for the project itself included grand challenges and trend analysis, analysis of best practices through use of benchmarking and horizon scanning, interviews, expert panels, wild card and weak signals analysis, cross impact analysis, SWOT and backcasting. The project used a broad-base of secondary information, expert panels consisting of company experts and HSE CF team personnel, interviews with senior management and an extensive literature review using HSE’s propriety iFORA system.

In all 17 CFI recommendation and over 100 implementation recommendations were made; 94 per cent of the CFI recommendations were accepted with most implemented at the time this case was written. The case also identifies five enabling factors that collectively both helped the CFI project and led to a high rate of recommendation acceptance and one factor that hindered CFI project success.

The case study provides detailed information and insight that can help others in conducting CF for innovation projects and establishes a link between CF methods and innovation-based recommendations and subsequent decisions.

In-depth case studies that show academe and practitioners how CFI leads to recommendations and is linked to subsequent decisions have been identified as a gap in the literature. This paper therefore seeks to address this need by presenting a detailed CF case for a corporate innovation project.

The main purpose of this article is to promote further systematic inquiry into the field of strategic foresight. It carefully aims to re‐examine the notion of environmental uncertainty, the main theoretical approaches advanced by literature on strategy to cope with uncertainty, and foresight activities in corporate organizations.

This article is theoretical in nature. However, its insights are significantly based on empirical analysis: the author has been involved in the past ten years in in‐depth investigation of foresight practices in several international firms of different industries.

Several important issues and research questions on strategic foresight have remained largely unresolved from both an academic and managerial perspective. This paper outlines such questions.

The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, it links the work on strategic foresight to a wide range of related literature streams, thus revealing new connections and issues to be explored. Second, it develops a research agenda that may inspire further theoretical and empirical work on the nature and effects of strategic foresight efforts.

With the intensification of market competition, there is a growing demand for weak signal identification and evolutionary analysis for enterprise foresight. For decades, many scholars have conducted relevant research. However, the existing research only cuts in from a single angle and lacks a systematic and comprehensive overview. In this paper, the authors summarize the articles related to weak signal recognition and evolutionary analysis, in an attempt to make contributions to relevant research.

The authors develop a systematic overview framework based on the most classical three-dimensional space model of weak signals. Framework comprehensively summarizes the current research insights and knowledge from three dimensions of research field, identification methods and interpretation methods.

The research results show that it is necessary to improve the automation level in the process of weak signal recognition and analysis and transfer valuable human resources to the decision-making stage. In addition, it is necessary to coordinate multiple types of data sources, expand research subfields and optimize weak signal recognition and interpretation methods, with a view to expanding weak signal future research, making theoretical and practical contributions to enterprise foresight, and providing reference for the government to establish weak signal technology monitoring, evaluation and early warning mechanisms.

The authors develop a systematic overview framework based on the most classical three-dimensional space model of weak signals. It comprehensively summarizes the current research insights and knowledge from three dimensions of research field, identification methods and interpretation methods.

In the ongoing Industry 4.0 era, the internet of things (IoT) has become a global race in the current information technology climate. However, little is understood about the pattern of the global competitive arena or its players’ set up strategy. This paper aims to attempt to compare the cross-country development of the IoT industry. In particular, from the lens of industrial policies, this paper highlights how China, as a latecomer, gains momentum to emerge victorious as a leader in this global race.

Based on five dimensions, namely, foundation, trajectory, characteristic, application and social impacts, this paper presents the evolution of the IoT industry in the USA, European Union, Japan, South Korea and China. From the lens of windows of opportunities, this paper analyzes how China seized the opportunity with the emerging technology, thereby, enabling it to create a competitive advantage.

This paper finds that China’s IoT industry takes a distinct trajectory, where scientific institutions, enterprises and governmental policies collaborate in unison, during which the first phase was when scientific research institutions introduced the conceptual new technology from developed countries. This technological foresight allowed for the identification and realization of critical technologies, strategic fields and technological trends. The second phase was the continuous dissatisfaction of capabilities of critical technologies, which creates disruptions that significantly altered the environment of technological competition.

This paper provides a comprehensive and comparative review of IoT industries in a global context, with the critical and influential role of the windows of opportunities on those enterprises lagging behind the technological wave.