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Article
Publication date: 1 February 1992

D.T. Brownlie

The successful placing of long‐range technology planning decisionsin the context of overall corporate strategic planning requires amechanism for synthesizing R&D strategy…

Abstract

The successful placing of long‐range technology planning decisions in the context of overall corporate strategic planning requires a mechanism for synthesizing R&D strategy and business strategy. This article argues that formalized technology forecasting has an important operational role to play in achieving the synthesis. Descriptive guidelines for an integrative framework are developed on the basis of a literature review and the author′s technology forecasting work which has been conducted to help devise long‐term research strategy in the offshore industry. Several factors are discussed which are considered to have an important integrative role. Technology forecasting is discussed with respect to these factors and the influence they have on the planning process.

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Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 92 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

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Article
Publication date: 1 August 2003

H. Bouwman and P. van der Duin

Information and communication technology (ICT) is increasingly being used in the home environment, making it a very important and interesting research topic for…

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4686

Abstract

Information and communication technology (ICT) is increasingly being used in the home environment, making it a very important and interesting research topic for communication scientists. Future developments will influence the way and the extent to which ICT will be used in the home environment and therefore the way people look for information, communicate, make use of entertainment services and carry out transactions. However, it is still very difficult to make meaningful and accurate forecasts with regard to the possible future use and acceptance of ICT in people’s homes. Important reasons are, for example, that more and more market parties are involved in the development of innovative ICT products and services. This makes developments more complex and the outcomes more uncertain. Furthermore, consumers play an important role in the development of new ICT‐based information, communication, transaction and entertainment services. Since a precise prediction of the possible use of ICT in domestic environments in 2010 is hard to make, other methods of futures research must be used. Combining technological forecasting with scenario thinking is such a research method, whereon, technological forecasting shows the major trends in the specific technology domain, while scenarios cover the possible future worlds. By giving end‐users a central place in these scenarios, the diversity of the use and acceptance of innovative products and services is captured. Thus, the addition of scenarios to the technology trends gives insight into the possibilities (and impossibilities) of new ICT‐technologies and the way they may be used in the home environment.

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Foresight, vol. 5 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

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Article
Publication date: 1 December 1997

William C. Johnson and Keith Bhatia

Asserts that innovation, which plays a key role in product and process improvement in many companies, is the very lifeblood of high technology firms. Considers that…

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2864

Abstract

Asserts that innovation, which plays a key role in product and process improvement in many companies, is the very lifeblood of high technology firms. Considers that because technological change is a function of the economic growth model then technological substitution must be a sub‐function of this model. The ability to forecast technological substitution in the long‐term macro view enables strategic planners to develop trends for their specific technological application. Begins with a brief statement of the problem, followed by a discussion of the theoretical framework, review of related literature, methodology, findings, discussion of findings and their implications and, finally, recommendations to practitioners.

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Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, vol. 12 no. 6
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0885-8624

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Article
Publication date: 1 June 2002

George K. Chacko

Develops an original 12‐step management of technology protocol and applies it to 51 applications which range from Du Pont’s failure in Nylon to the Single Online Trade…

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2423

Abstract

Develops an original 12‐step management of technology protocol and applies it to 51 applications which range from Du Pont’s failure in Nylon to the Single Online Trade Exchange for Auto Parts procurement by GM, Ford, Daimler‐Chrysler and Renault‐Nissan. Provides many case studies with regards to the adoption of technology and describes seven chief technology officer characteristics. Discusses common errors when companies invest in technology and considers the probabilities of success. Provides 175 questions and answers to reinforce the concepts introduced. States that this substantial journal is aimed primarily at the present and potential chief technology officer to assist their survival and success in national and international markets.

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Asia Pacific Journal of Marketing and Logistics, vol. 14 no. 2/3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1355-5855

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Article
Publication date: 1 September 1987

Douglas T. Brownlie

The rapid technological change of recent years has played a major role in changing the structure of established industries as well as creating new industries. It has…

Abstract

The rapid technological change of recent years has played a major role in changing the structure of established industries as well as creating new industries. It has elevated the management of technology into the arena of strategic issues. This paper reviews the work of authors who argue that technology management must be given a strategic role in the firm. It does not take issue with the general tenor of their views; but, it counsels caution on the grounds that a focus on technology supply may lead to a product orientation which subverts the influence of customer considerations in strategy making. The author argues for an approach to the strategic management of technology that integrates the technology supply and technology demand perspectives. Descriptive guidelines are developed for an integrative framework by means of which technology strategy can be formulated.

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European Journal of Marketing, vol. 21 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0309-0566

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Article
Publication date: 1 February 1975

Michael Firth

During recent years there has been a vast growth in the literature of and the study of the theory of the firm. Underlying the various different theories however is a…

Abstract

During recent years there has been a vast growth in the literature of and the study of the theory of the firm. Underlying the various different theories however is a generally acknowledged structure of a company having an objective(s) towards which it strives by laying down and implementing plans. Planning involves making decisions which will have their effects and outcomes in the future and so an estimate of this future is required. This assessment of the future is termed forecasting and it is a vital ingredient in any planning process.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 1 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

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Article
Publication date: 31 December 2018

Abid Haleem, Bisma Mannan, Sunil Luthra, Sanjay Kumar and Sonal Khurana

Technology forecasting (TF) and assessment (TA), all in all, apply to any intentional and deliberate endeavours to forecast and view the potential heading, rate…

Abstract

Purpose

Technology forecasting (TF) and assessment (TA), all in all, apply to any intentional and deliberate endeavours to forecast and view the potential heading, rate, attributes and impacts of technological change, especially for development, advancement, selection and utilisation of resources, which ultimately helps in the benchmarking. A vast variety of methods are available for TF and TA. Till now, practically, no exertion has been made to choose proper, satisfactory innovation methods or technology. The paper aims to discuss this issue.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, there is an endeavour to summarise the vast field of TF and TA, through its evolution, functions, applications and techniques. This paper provides the in-depth review of the utilisation of TF and TA methodologies and its improvement, which helps the users in selecting the appropriate method of TF and TA for a specific situation.

Findings

This study concludes that the quest for a single strategy for doing forecast and assessment is a misconception. This neglects to perceive that forecast and assessment oblige a suitable blend of strategies and methods drawn from a variety of fields. Researchers and practitioners must be innovative, imperative and specialised in choosing TF and TA methodologies, and cannot be programmed.

Practical implications

The technology seems to be the most significant driver of the present day global developments. Some technologies have far-reaching implications, and the authors need to understand these issues regarding its’ forecasting and its assessment.

Originality/value

The decision of proper worthy procedure amid a circumstance may have an impact on the exactness and reliability of the forecast and assessment. Significant observations regarding learning, action/s, actor/s and expected outcomes are discussed.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. 26 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-5771

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Article
Publication date: 11 December 2017

Alptekin Durmusoglu

The purpose of this paper is to develop an approach that can detect abnormal deviations in the time series models for technology forecasting. The detected modifications…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop an approach that can detect abnormal deviations in the time series models for technology forecasting. The detected modifications provide a basis for understanding the determinants and impact of the corresponding change.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed approach is based on monitoring residual values (the difference between the observation and the forecasted value) continuously using statistical control charts (SCCs). The residuals that are out of the expected limits are considered an alert indicating a remarkable change. To demonstrate the use of the proposed approach, a time series model was fitted to a number of TV-related patent counts. Subsequently, model residuals were used to determine the limits of the SCCs.

Findings

A number of patents granted in the year 2012 violated the upper control limit. A further analysis has shown that there is a linkage between the abnormal patent counts and the emergence of LCD TVs.

Practical implications

Change in technology may dramatically affect the accuracy of a forecasting model. The need for a parameter update indicates a significant change (emergence or death of a technology) in the technological environment. This may lead to the revision of managerial actions in R&D plans and investment decisions.

Originality/value

The proposed methodology brings a novel approach for abnormal data detection and provides a basis for understanding the determinants and impact of the corresponding change.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 47 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

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Article
Publication date: 11 April 2016

Yonghee Cho and Tugrul Daim

Due to rapid technological evolution driven by display manufacturers, the television (TV) market of flat panel displays has been fast growing with the advancement of…

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1474

Abstract

Purpose

Due to rapid technological evolution driven by display manufacturers, the television (TV) market of flat panel displays has been fast growing with the advancement of digital technologies in broadcasting service. Recently, organic light-emitting diode (OLED) successfully penetrated into the large-size TV market, catching up with light-emitting diode (LED)-liquid-crystal display (LCD). This paper aims to investigate the market penetration of OLED technologies by determining their technology adoption rates based on a diffusion model.

Design/methodology/approach

Through the rapid evolution of information and communication technology, as well as a flood of data from diverse sources such as research awards, journals, patents, business press, newspaper and Internet social media, data mining, text mining, tech mining and database tomography have become practical techniques for assisting the forecaster to identify early signs of technological change. The information extracted from a variety of sources can be used in a technology diffusion model, such as Fisher-Pry where emerging technologies supplant older ones. This paper uses a comparison-based prediction method to forecast the adoption and diffusion of next-generation OLED technologies by mining journal and patent databases.

Findings

In recent years, there has been a drastic reduction of patents related to LCD technologies, which suggests that next-generation OLED technology is penetrating the TV market. A strong industry adoption for OLED has been found. A high level of maturity is expected by 2026.

Research limitations/implications

For OLED technologies that are closely tied to industrial applications such as electronic display devices, it may be better to use more industry-oriented data mining, such as patents, market data, trade shows, number of companies or startups, etc. The Fisher-Pry model does not address the level of sales for each technology. Therefore, the comparison between the Bass model and the Fisher-Pry model would be useful to investigate the market trends of OLED TVs further. Another step for forecasting could include using industry experts and a Delphi model for forecasting (and further validation).

Originality/value

Fisher-Pry growth curves for journal publications and patents follow the expected sequence. Specially, journal publications and patents growth curves are close for OLED technologies, indicating a strong industry adoption.

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Article
Publication date: 18 May 2012

Sunghae Jun, Sang Sung Park and Dong Sik Jang

The purpose of this paper is to propose an objective method for technology forecasting (TF). For the construction of the proposed model, the paper aims to consider new…

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2711

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose an objective method for technology forecasting (TF). For the construction of the proposed model, the paper aims to consider new approaches to patent mapping and clustering. In addition, the paper aims to introduce a matrix map and K‐medoids clustering based on support vector clustering (KM‐SVC) for vacant TF.

Design/methodology/approach

TF is an important research and development (R&D) policy issue for both companies and government. Vacant TF is one of the key technological planning methods for improving the competitive power of firms and governments. In general, a forecasting process is facilitated subjectively based on the researcher's knowledge, resulting in unstable TF performance. In this paper, the authors forecast the vacant technology areas in a given technology field by analyzing patent documents and employing the proposed matrix map and KM‐SVC to forecast vacant technology areas in the management of technology (MOT).

Findings

The paper examines the vacant technology areas for MOT patent documents from the USA, Europe, and China by comparing these countries in terms of technology trends in MOT and identifying the vacant technology areas by country. The matrix map provides broad vacant technology areas, whereas KM‐SVC provides more specific vacant technology areas. Thus, the paper identifies the vacant technology areas of a given technology field by using the results for both the matrix map and KM‐SVC.

Practical implications

The authors use patent documents as objective data to develop a model for vacant TF. The paper attempts to objectively forecast the vacant technology areas in a given technology field. To verify the performance of the matrix map and KM‐SVC, the authors conduct an experiment using patent documents related to MOT (the given technology field in this paper). The results suggest that the proposed forecasting model can be applied to diverse technology fields, including R&D management, technology marketing, and intellectual property management.

Originality/value

Most TF models are based on qualitative and subjective methods such as Delphi. That is, there are few objective models. In this regard, this paper proposes a quantitative and objective TF model that employs patent documents as objective data and a matrix map and KM‐SVC as quantitative methods.

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