Search results

Since the widespread introduction of floating exchange rate regimes amongst the major currencies in the early 1970s, the problem of correctly anticipating exchange rate fluctuations is one that corporate treasurers of companies having any international dealings have had to face in order to manage successfully the exchange risk inherent in international contracts.

Fiscal stress has forced local governments to pay increasing attention to revenue trends and has increased the importance of financial forecasting in local government. After reviewing the role of revenue forecasting in financial planning and discussing the use of regression and econometric analysis in revenue forecasting, this article applies this technique to forecast several key revenue components in a medium-sized city. Three general conclusions may be drawn: (1) systematic revenue forecasting and long-range planning are necessities, not luxuries, (2) risk aversion to "technical" revenue forecasting can be overcome, and (3) the implementation of a systematic revenue forecasting system does not require a battery of "rocket scientists." As municipal revenue bases come to rely less on relatively stable property taxes and more on less stable sources such as sales taxes, fees, and charges, the use of a regression and econometric based model should prove increasingly fruitful.

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the nature of the work that financial analysts actually do in the context of the market for information and to further open up research in this area to qualitative and sociological inquiry.

A field study with 49 financial analysts (both buy-side and sell-side) was undertaken in order to understand the work that they actually do. This field study was theoretically informed by the sociology of Pierre Bourdieu.

The authors find, in contrast to both conventional wisdom and assumptions in prior (mostly quantitative) literature, that the primary value of sell-side analyst work lies not in the recommendations that analysts ultimately produce, but in the rich contextual information that they provide to buy-side analysts. In order to successfully provide this information, analysts have to embody large amounts of technical capital into their habitus.

Much research in this area erroneously presumes that forecasting is the primary function of analysts. Analyst work needs to be understood as multifarious and requiring a well-developed habitus that is attuned to the accumulation of both technical and social capital. Future qualitative research might usefully explore in more detail the way in which corporate managers interact with analysts. The present study solicits the viewpoints only of the analysts themselves. The organisational context of the analysts was not explored in detail and the interviews were pre-crisis, which possibly explains why the technical capital of sell-side analysts was extolled by interviewees rather than lambasted.

The paper is one of few studies to look at analysts from a qualitative and sociological perspective. It both complements and extends both emerging sociological work on financial intermediaries and qualitative work on the “market for information”.

The main thrust of this contribution is to highlight technological forecasting techniques which have the greatest relevance to developing countries. The paper draws upon certain research findings concerning the casual connections between research, technological forecasting and the man‐development. Technological forecasting and the management of change are sophisticated and significant tools of managing in advanced nations. Technological change, in fact, is one of the most important dynamic factors responsible for economic growth and improvement of life style. Yet, “blue sky” and basic research and futures forecasting activities in the lesser developed countries and in the Third World generally are unimpressive, if not non‐existent. As a consequence, there is a bias toward solving problems and meeting the needs of advanced countries. Furthermore, research findings demonstrate that the technological gap between advanced and lesser developed countries continues to widen and the standards of living between the two sets of nations become more disparate. “Blue sky” and basic research and futures forecasting (the critical first steps in the research — innovation‐high‐living‐standard nexus) although risky, are low‐cost and therefore, can be taken by the LDC's.

This paper contributes to shed light on the quality and performance of US fiscal forecasts.

The first part inspects the causes of official fiscal forecasts revisions by Congressional Budget Office (CBO) between 1984 and 2016 that are due to technical, economic or policy reasons.

Both individual and cumulative means of forecast errors are relatively close to zero, particularly in the case of expenditures. CBO averages indicate net average downward revenue and expenditure revisions and net average upward deficit revisions. Focusing on the causes of the technical component, the authors uncover that its revisions are quite unpredictable, which cast doubts on inferences about fiscal policy sustainability that rely on point estimates. Comparing official with private-sector (consensus) forecasts, despite the informational advantages CBO might have, one cannot unequivocally say that one or the other is more accurate. Evidence also seems to suggest that CBO forecasts are consistently heavily biased toward optimism while this is less the case for consensus forecasts. Not only is the extent of information rigidity is more prevalent in CBO forecasts but also evidence seems to indicate that consensus forecasts dominate CBO in terms of information content.

The authors provide a detailed analysis on US fiscal forecasts both using revenue and expenditure and decomposing forecast errors into several explanatory components. Moreover, the authors compare official with private-sector (consensus) forecasts and assess which one is better or preferred.

This monograph presents an outline of traditional management functions: strategic planning, human resource management, financial management, marketing, operations management, technological innovation management and the management of change. In separate chapters, each of these functions is first set out in general terms with emphasis on tested key issues, techniques, and the different aspects of the managerial role. Each chapter then analyses the function specifically in terms of the changing nature of librarianship and information services. It is suggested that librarians should be adopting a higher management profile and, with experience of IT coupled with traditional skills in selecting and organising information, that they are well placed for initiating as well as responding to change.

Asserts that innovation, which plays a key role in product and process improvement in many companies, is the very lifeblood of high technology firms. Considers that because technological change is a function of the economic growth model then technological substitution must be a sub‐function of this model. The ability to forecast technological substitution in the long‐term macro view enables strategic planners to develop trends for their specific technological application. Begins with a brief statement of the problem, followed by a discussion of the theoretical framework, review of related literature, methodology, findings, discussion of findings and their implications and, finally, recommendations to practitioners.

The gap between theory and practice is probably wider in new product development and diversification than in any other aspect of marketing. What is written in most of the books does not look very like what happens in most companies.

The purpose of this study is the analysis of innovation in technology‐intensive industry strategy, by applying scenario analysis (SA) to master the development of the market information and competitive environment. This study will utilize the technical development of the Sony video tape recorder (VTR) as a case study, and then provide more adequate decision information on the technical development strategy (TDS) planning process.

Scenario analysis (SA) strategy assessment model will construct a future technical development model based on current data. The forecasting model of the cycle period is applied to future market technical innovation. Therefore, applying SA in this study can effectively connect historical information to the analysis of technology development.

This study used the Sony VTR TDS as a case study that provides a strategy assessment model in a technology‐intensive industry for technical development strategy planning as the basis of decision‐making to aid technical forecasting. Result found that the R&D department is the core lifeline for the development of a company, and TDS is affected by the orientation of customer demand with impact on the development of TLC to form the cycle period of uncertainty.

This model applied the properties of TDS assessment to grasp the development trend in the market, and it can enable the R&D department to integrate technical push and market demands pull. In turn, this results in a gain in the competitive edge for technical innovation through a combination of strategies and regulations.

The purpose of this study is the analysis of innovation in technology‐intensive industries via the application of scenario analysis (SA) to master the development of market information and competitive environment. This study will employ the technical development of SONY video tape recorder (VTR) as a case study, and then provide more adequate decision information on the technology development strategy (TDS) planning process.

Scenario analysis strategy assessment model will be utilized to construct a future technical development model based on present status, and will diffuse and apply the forecasting model to the cycle period of future market technical innovation. Therefore, applying SA in this study can effectively connect historical information to the analysis of technology development.

This research used SONY VTR TDS as a case study that provides a strategy assessment model to technology‐intensive industry for technical development strategy planning as the basis of decision information for technical forecasting. Output of the R&D department is the core lifeline for the development of a company, and TDS is affected by the orientation of customer demand and has an impact on the development of TLC to form the cycle period of uncertainty.

This model applied the property of TDS assessment to grasp the development trend in the market, and it can enable the R&D department to integrate technical push and market demand pull. In turn, this results in a gain in the competitive edge for technical innovation through a combination with strategies and regulations.