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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 30 January 2024

Christina Anderl and Guglielmo Maria Caporale

The article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time.

Abstract

Purpose

The article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper assesses time variation in monetary policy rules by applying a time-varying parameter generalised methods of moments (TVP-GMM) framework.

Findings

Using monthly data until December 2022 for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) and five countries with alternative monetary regimes (the US, Japan, Denmark, the Euro Area, Switzerland), we find that monetary policy has become more averse to inflation and more responsive to the output gap in both sets of countries over time. In particular, there has been a clear shift in inflation targeting countries towards a more hawkish stance on inflation since the adoption of this regime and a greater response to both inflation and the output gap in most countries after the global financial crisis, which indicates a stronger reliance on monetary rules to stabilise the economy in recent years. It also appears that inflation targeting countries pay greater attention to the exchange rate pass-through channel when setting interest rates. Finally, monetary surprises do not seem to be an important determinant of the evolution over time of the Taylor rule parameters, which suggests a high degree of monetary policy transparency in the countries under examination.

Originality/value

It provides new evidence on changes over time in monetary policy rules.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 51 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Organization Theory
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78560-946-6

Book part
Publication date: 1 July 2015

Nikolay Markov

This chapter investigates the predictability of the European monetary policy through the eyes of the professional forecasters from a large investment bank. The analysis is based…

Abstract

This chapter investigates the predictability of the European monetary policy through the eyes of the professional forecasters from a large investment bank. The analysis is based on forward-looking Actual and Perceived Taylor Rules for the European Central Bank which are estimated in real-time using a newly constructed database for the period April 2000–November 2009. The former policy rule is based on the actual refi rate set by the Governing Council, while the latter is estimated for the bank’s economists using their main point forecast for the upcoming refi rate decision as a dependent variable. The empirical evidence shows that the pattern of the refi rate is broadly well predicted by the professional forecasters even though the latter have foreseen more accurately the increases rather than the policy rate cuts. Second, the results point to an increasing responsiveness of the ECB to macroeconomic fundamentals along the forecast horizon. Third, the rolling window regressions suggest that the estimated coefficients have changed after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in October 2008; the ECB has responded less strongly to macroeconomic fundamentals and the degree of policy inertia has decreased. A sensitivity analysis shows that the baseline results are robust to applying a recursive window methodology and some of the findings are qualitatively unaltered from using Consensus Economics forecasts in the regressions.

Details

Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-779-6

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 18 February 2004

Warren J. Samuels

The United States, it was once felt, could have a different foreign policy when isolated by two oceans in comparison to the later period when modern technology destroyed its…

Abstract

The United States, it was once felt, could have a different foreign policy when isolated by two oceans in comparison to the later period when modern technology destroyed its isolation. Foreign policy is thus a function of geography modified by technology. The United States, commencing some time after the first third of the 19th century, had a further choice. It could live up to its self-image as a liberal constitutional democracy and follow a foreign policy of live and let live, in both respects serving as a role model for the rest of the world. Or, like the monarchical dynasties of the past and other regimes of more recent times, it could pursue an aggressive foreign policy in pursuit of what it considered its interests, engendering enmity in various quarters. The United States has done both. In the first category it has preferred isolationism, reluctantly joining the two World Wars in defense of its autonomy. In the second category, it increasingly either engaged in the practices of conventional imperialism, often at the behest of entrepreneurial interests, or flexed and deployed its muscle in pursuit of national interests either on its own initiative or in response to threats from and capabilities of other countries. The former is American exceptionalism; the latter is conventional. Of course, the history is much more complex than the foregoing directly allows. Several other stories or models can be developed (the most recent is Mead, 2001).

Details

A Research Annual
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-76231-089-0

Book part
Publication date: 1 July 2015

Nikolay Markov

This chapter estimates a regime switching Taylor Rule for the European Central Bank (ECB) in order to investigate some potential nonlinearities in the forward-looking policy…

Abstract

This chapter estimates a regime switching Taylor Rule for the European Central Bank (ECB) in order to investigate some potential nonlinearities in the forward-looking policy reaction function within a real-time framework. In order to compare observed and predicted policy behavior, the chapter estimates Actual and Perceived regime switching Taylor Rules for the ECB. The former is based on the refi rate set by the Governing Council while the latter relies on the professional point forecasts of the refi rate performed by a large investment bank before the upcoming policy rate decision. The empirical evidence shows that the Central Bank’s main policy rate has switched between two regimes: in the first one the Taylor Principle is satisfied and the ECB stabilizes the economic outlook, while in the second regime the Central Bank cuts rates more aggressively and puts a higher emphasis on stabilizing real output growth expectations. Second, the results point out that the professional forecasters have broadly well predicted the actual policy regimes. The estimation results are also robust to using consensus forecasts of inflation and real output growth. The empirical evidence from the augmented Taylor Rules shows that the Central Bank has most likely not responded to the growth rates of M3 and the nominal effective exchange rate and the estimated regimes are robust to including these additional variables in the regressions. Finally, after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers the policy rate has switched to a crisis regime as the ECB has focused on preventing a further decline in economic activity and on securing the stability of the financial system.

Details

Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-78441-779-6

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 24 March 2006

Pierre L. Siklos and Mark E. Wohar

Relying on Clive Granger's many and varied contributions to econometric analysis, this paper considers some of the key econometric considerations involved in estimating Taylor

Abstract

Relying on Clive Granger's many and varied contributions to econometric analysis, this paper considers some of the key econometric considerations involved in estimating Taylor-type rules for US data. We focus on the roles of unit roots, cointegration, structural breaks, and non-linearities to make the case that most existing estimates are based on an unbalanced regression. A variety of estimates reveal that neglected cointegration results in the omission of a necessary error correction term and that Federal Reserve (Fed) reactions during the Greenspan era appear to have been asymmetric. We argue that error correction and non-linearities may be one way to estimate Taylor rules over long samples when the underlying policy regime may have changed significantly.

Details

Econometric Analysis of Financial and Economic Time Series
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-84950-388-4

Article
Publication date: 13 September 2023

Sigmund A. Wagner-Tsukamoto

This paper aims to offer a new history of management by tracing a religious dimension of scientific management. The thesis is that the good was foundational for bringing…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to offer a new history of management by tracing a religious dimension of scientific management. The thesis is that the good was foundational for bringing scientific management to success in Taylor’s native Quaker Philadelphia in the 1880s. The paper’s main contribution is to contrast the philosophical origins of Taylor’s ideas in scientific management to his native Quaker roots, and how Taylor, over time, into the 1910s, wrestled with this issue.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper is situated in historical interpretivism and subjectivism, leaning on contextual and narrative research on religious morality.

Findings

Quaker morality prevented managerial opportunism at Taylor’s Midvale Steel in the 1880s. Conversely, by the 1900s and 1910s, interest conflicts between workers and managers escalated when scientific management moved out of its traditional cultural contexts of Quaker Philadelphia and spread across the USA. The historical implication is, already for Taylor’s time, that scientific management never was the “one-best way” of management.

Research limitations/implications

Future research needs to deepen and broaden research on scientific management when tracing the significance of religion and culture in management thought.

Practical implications

The paper has implications for modern studies of business morality by uncovering the practical relevance of religious business ethics at the outset of management studies.

Social implications

The historic emergence of scientific management points to a theory of institutional evolution and economic growth, when religiously grounded governance of the firm deinstitutionalized, and institutional economic governance, with different but superior economic advantages, progressed by the 1900s.

Originality/value

The paper suggests an alternative version of the intellectual heritage of management studies by tracing the legacy of Taylor’s Quakerism and how religious and cultural ideas contributed to the formation of science in management.

Details

Journal of Management History, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1751-1348

Keywords

Case study
Publication date: 11 October 2022

Kishore Thomas John

The learning outcomes of this case are in understanding core concepts of brand management and brand dilution. Assessment of macro-economic risks and proper positioning strategies…

Abstract

Learning outcomes

The learning outcomes of this case are in understanding core concepts of brand management and brand dilution. Assessment of macro-economic risks and proper positioning strategies are the key take-away from this case. The case gives an understanding of how brands are built and positioned, and the pitfalls of poor brand planning and assessment that could lead to brand dilution. The case is useful for highlighting the importance of brand management and the challenges of re-positioning. The discussions would shed light on why it is important to plan and manage spending on marketing for brand building activities, and why brands would suffer when spending is reduced. This case is a teaching case and not a research case. It will help participants assimilate available information in combination with existing academic theories and publications to help develop an accurate assessment and prognosis of the events leading until the point of slicing the case.

Case overview/synopsis

Reid & Taylor in 2015 had been reduced to a discounter brand offering extended end-of-season sales when most other competitors have ended their promotions. In the 17 years since its big-budget launch in the Indian market in one of the most memorable brand introductions, Reid & Taylor changed its ambassador twice and repositioned itself thrice. The case would allow participants to delve deeper into aspects of marketing spending, brand management, positioning and advertising effectiveness. The case brings to the fore discussions on marketing, specifically on branding, positioning and its related advertising in the textile sector for a brand that has not been studied in academic literature until the present time. The discussion allows for novelty, involving both forward- and backward-looking assessments and evaluations to help participants better imbibe learnings in brand management and positioning.

Complexity academic level

The case is suitable for a graduate-level (Master’s level) course in marketing and brand management. This case is suitable for elective courses that discuss positioning and brands.

Supplementary materials

Teaching notes are available for educators only.

Subject code

CSS 8: Marketing

Details

Emerald Emerging Markets Case Studies, vol. 12 no. 3
Type: Case Study
ISSN:

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 1997

Carol Carlson Dean

The Principles of Scientific Management by Frederick W. Taylor began as the text of a fireside lecture and evolved into a classic work of the Scientific Management Era. Taylor

13536

Abstract

The Principles of Scientific Management by Frederick W. Taylor began as the text of a fireside lecture and evolved into a classic work of the Scientific Management Era. Taylor failed to convince his colleagues in the American Society of Mechanical Engineers to publish his “Principles” in the ASME Transactions, in spite of an extensive letter writing campaign directed toward the effort. He resorted to a “private printing” of the material that had been rejected by the ASME. Taylor personally distributed copies of the private printing to his friends in the Society before the publication of each of the forthcoming magazine articles and the “trade edition” of essentially the same material. Personal correspondence preserved in the Taylor Collection at Stevens Institute of Technology provides clues to the events of 1910‐1911, wherein Taylor labored over the manner of publication of his “Principles of Scientific Management.” This paper tracks the details of these events through the publication of the private printing. Articles in subsequent issues of Journal of Management History will track the publishing events following the private printing.

Details

Journal of Management History, vol. 3 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1355-252X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 March 2014

Jill M. Gradwell, Liza M. Acanfora, Erika Lindsay and Kimberly Vaughn

This extended lesson plan uses the book Queen of the Falls to investigate the life of Annie Edson Taylor, the first person to successfully fall over Niagara Falls in a barrel…

Abstract

This extended lesson plan uses the book Queen of the Falls to investigate the life of Annie Edson Taylor, the first person to successfully fall over Niagara Falls in a barrel Niagara Falls. Through the various activities, students will explore resources such as photographs, first-hand accounts, newspaper articles, songs, and poems from the era, to learn what life was like for women in 1901, and to discuss the events surrounding Taylor’s decision to venture over Niagara Falls. Several questions will be posed to the students including “How was Annie Edson Taylor a woman of her time?” “To what extent was Annie Edson Taylor a hero?” “Was Annie Edson Taylor’s trip over the Falls worth the attempt for fame and fortune?” The lesson concludes with the following question: “Was Annie Edson Taylor a woman of her time or by her design?”

Details

Social Studies Research and Practice, vol. 9 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1933-5415

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