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Expert briefing
Publication date: 20 March 2015

The outlook for Myanmar's political transition from military rule.

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Expert briefing
Publication date: 26 October 2015

Myanmar military reform scenarios.

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Expert briefing
Publication date: 13 January 2017

Discussion included the Northern Alliance of four ethnic minority armed groups fighting the Tatmadaw in north-eastern Myanmar bordering China. The meeting exemplifies the…

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Expert briefing
Publication date: 28 July 2015

Outlook for military leadership changes and presidential contenders.

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Expert briefing
Publication date: 26 February 2015

The fallout from the violence in Kokang.

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Expert briefing
Publication date: 19 May 2016

This follows Myanmar's National League for Democracy (NLD)-dominated legislature endorsing a new defence cooperation agreement with Russia on May 10.

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Expert briefing
Publication date: 27 January 2016

Prospects for the peace process with ethnic groups under the incoming National League for Democracy government.

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Expert briefing
Publication date: 31 May 2017

The talks are part of the effort to end decades of fighting between Myanmar's military (Tatmadaw) and various ethnic minority armed groups (EMAGs).

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Expert briefing
Publication date: 8 October 2015

Outlook for Myanmar's ceasefire process after eight ethnic armed groups agreed to sign up.

Details

DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB205854

ISSN: 2633-304X

Keywords

Geographic
Topical
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Article
Publication date: 14 October 2019

Partha Gangopadhyay and Siddharth Jain

This paper aims to examine the interrelationships between subnational conflicts in Myanmar and other variables of interests from the following four major domains…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the interrelationships between subnational conflicts in Myanmar and other variables of interests from the following four major domains: economic, human security and vulnerability of people, aggressiveness or militancy of the armed forces and global and regional climates.

Design/methodology/approach

Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach has been applied on annual data from 1960-2017, to deal with the problems of autocorrelation and non-stationarity of key variables.

Findings

First, an increase in crop yield, cereal productivity, food productivity and per capita availability of arable land unequivocally and significantly lower the severity of conflict in Myanmar in the long run. Second, the authors uncover strong evidence that the intensity of conflicts bears a positive relationship with the vulnerability of the people of Myanmar. Third, the authors detect that both regional and global climate variables have limited and rather inconsistent impacts on subnational conflicts in Myanmar. Finally, the authors find that the aggressiveness (militancy index) of the armed forces has significant impacts upon subnational conflicts and economic variables of Myanmar in the long run.

Originality/value

This paper is completely data-driven and explains the long-term dynamics of the intensity of the civil war in Myanmar. ARDL bounds testing approach has been used to examine the interrelationships between subnational conflicts in Myanmar and other variables of interests. It is a novel approach, which overcomes the problems of autocorrelation and nonstationarity and offers reliable results.

Details

Indian Growth and Development Review, vol. 13 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8254

Keywords

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