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The outlook for Myanmar's political transition from military rule.
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB198445
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
Myanmar military reform scenarios.
Discussion included the Northern Alliance of four ethnic minority armed groups fighting the Tatmadaw in north-eastern Myanmar bordering China. The meeting exemplifies the…
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB217248
ISSN: 2633-304X
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Geographic
Topical
Outlook for military leadership changes and presidential contenders.
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB201246
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
The fallout from the violence in Kokang.
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB197929
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
This follows Myanmar's National League for Democracy (NLD)-dominated legislature endorsing a new defence cooperation agreement with Russia on May 10.
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB211149
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
Prospects for the peace process with ethnic groups under the incoming National League for Democracy government.
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB208083
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
The talks are part of the effort to end decades of fighting between Myanmar's military (Tatmadaw) and various ethnic minority armed groups (EMAGs).
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB221197
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
Outlook for Myanmar's ceasefire process after eight ethnic armed groups agreed to sign up.
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DOI: 10.1108/OXAN-DB205854
ISSN: 2633-304X
Keywords
Geographic
Topical
Partha Gangopadhyay and Siddharth Jain
This paper aims to examine the interrelationships between subnational conflicts in Myanmar and other variables of interests from the following four major domains…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the interrelationships between subnational conflicts in Myanmar and other variables of interests from the following four major domains: economic, human security and vulnerability of people, aggressiveness or militancy of the armed forces and global and regional climates.
Design/methodology/approach
Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach has been applied on annual data from 1960-2017, to deal with the problems of autocorrelation and non-stationarity of key variables.
Findings
First, an increase in crop yield, cereal productivity, food productivity and per capita availability of arable land unequivocally and significantly lower the severity of conflict in Myanmar in the long run. Second, the authors uncover strong evidence that the intensity of conflicts bears a positive relationship with the vulnerability of the people of Myanmar. Third, the authors detect that both regional and global climate variables have limited and rather inconsistent impacts on subnational conflicts in Myanmar. Finally, the authors find that the aggressiveness (militancy index) of the armed forces has significant impacts upon subnational conflicts and economic variables of Myanmar in the long run.
Originality/value
This paper is completely data-driven and explains the long-term dynamics of the intensity of the civil war in Myanmar. ARDL bounds testing approach has been used to examine the interrelationships between subnational conflicts in Myanmar and other variables of interests. It is a novel approach, which overcomes the problems of autocorrelation and nonstationarity and offers reliable results.
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