Search results
1 – 4 of 4Sergei Gurov and Tamara Teplova
The study examines the relationship between news intensity, media sentiment and market microstructure invariance-implied measures of trading activity and liquidity of Chinese…
Abstract
Purpose
The study examines the relationship between news intensity, media sentiment and market microstructure invariance-implied measures of trading activity and liquidity of Chinese property developer stocks during the 2020–2022 Chinese property sector crisis.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors adopt the extension of the news article invariance hypothesis, which is a generalization of the market microstructure invariance conjecture, from January 2020 to January 2022 to test specific quantitative relationships between the arrival rate of public information, trading activity and a nonlinear function of a proxy for the probability of informed trading. Empirical tests are based on a dataset of 22,412 firm-day observations and two count-data models to correct for overdispersion and the excess number of zeros. Seventy-five stocks of Chinese companies from the property development industry (including the China Evergrande Group) were included in the sample.
Findings
The authors reject the news article invariance hypothesis but document a positive and significant relationship between the flow of public information and risk liquidity. Additionally, the authors find that the proxy for informed trading activity is positively related to the arrival rates of public information from October 2021 to January 2022.
Originality/value
The findings support the hypothesis that negative (positive) media sentiment induces significant deterioration (insignificant improvement) in stock liquidity. The authors find that an increase in the number of news articles about a company corresponds to a higher liquidity of Chinese property developers' stocks after controlling for media sentiment.
Details
Keywords
Valeriia Baklanova, Aleksei Kurkin and Tamara Teplova
The primary objective of this research is to provide a precise interpretation of the constructed machine learning model and produce definitive summaries that can evaluate the…
Abstract
Purpose
The primary objective of this research is to provide a precise interpretation of the constructed machine learning model and produce definitive summaries that can evaluate the influence of investor sentiment on the overall sales of non-fungible token (NFT) assets. To achieve this objective, the NFT hype index was constructed as well as several approaches of XAI were employed to interpret Black Box models and assess the magnitude and direction of the impact of the features used.
Design/methodology/approach
The research paper involved the construction of a sentiment index termed the NFT hype index, which aims to measure the influence of market actors within the NFT industry. This index was created by analyzing written content posted by 62 high-profile individuals and opinion leaders on the social media platform Twitter. The authors collected posts from the Twitter accounts that were afterward classified by tonality with a help of natural language processing model VADER. Then the machine learning methods and XAI approaches (feature importance, permutation importance and SHAP) were applied to explain the obtained results.
Findings
The built index was subjected to rigorous analysis using the gradient boosting regressor model and explainable AI techniques, which confirmed its significant explanatory power. Remarkably, the NFT hype index exhibited a higher degree of predictive accuracy compared to the well-known sentiment indices.
Practical implications
The NFT hype index, constructed from Twitter textual data, functions as an innovative, sentiment-based indicator for investment decision-making in the NFT market. It offers investors unique insights into the market sentiment that can be used alongside conventional financial analysis techniques to enhance risk management, portfolio optimization and overall investment outcomes within the rapidly evolving NFT ecosystem. Thus, the index plays a crucial role in facilitating well-informed, data-driven investment decisions and ensuring a competitive edge in the digital assets market.
Originality/value
The authors developed a novel index of investor interest for NFT assets (NFT hype index) based on text messages posted by market influencers and compared it to conventional sentiment indices in terms of their explanatory power. With the application of explainable AI, it was shown that sentiment indices may perform as significant predictors for NFT sales and that the NFT hype index works best among all sentiment indices considered.
Details
Keywords
– The purpose of this paper is to present a tool to categorize companies as potentially profitable on the basis of an intellectual capital (IC) analysis.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to present a tool to categorize companies as potentially profitable on the basis of an intellectual capital (IC) analysis.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper distinguishes two crucial attributions for picking shares: IC and capitalization of IC-based growth potential. Using these two attributions, the author creates a portfolio from a sample of European companies and annually rebalances it. To test its attractiveness, the author then compares the portfolio with benchmarks and random portfolios during the period from 2006 to 2013 using a Sharpe coefficient.
Findings
The comparison of the constructed portfolio with the benchmarks demonstrates the importance of IC for market investors and the validity of the proposed tool. The Sharpe ratio of the portfolio is significantly higher than the mean and median Sharpe ratios of random portfolios. In addition, the importance of IC for choosing proper investment goal increases in crisis.
Research limitations/implications
This investigation can be improved by analysing other IC such as the qualification of CEOs, participation of the company in business alliances, and a company’s innovation activity. In addition, the paper considers only European companies.
Practical implications
The proposed tool provides a method to construct investment-attractive portfolios on the basis of IC.
Originality/value
The paper contributes to the literature by identifying the underestimated shares on the basis of a company’s IC and by developing an algorithm to create an IC-based investment portfolio.
Details
Keywords
This study aims to uncover the main predictors of financial distress in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a wide range of global factors and asset classes.
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to uncover the main predictors of financial distress in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries using a wide range of global factors and asset classes.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses novel approaches that take into account extreme events as well as the nonlinear behavior of time series over various time intervals (i.e. short, medium and long term) and during boom and bust episodes. This study primarily uses the conditional value at risk (CoVaR), the quantile multivariate causality test and the partial wavelet coherence method. The data collection period ranges from March 2014 to September 2022.
Findings
US T-bills and gold are the primary factors that can increase financial stability in the GCC region, according to VaRs and CoVaRs. More proof of the predictive value of the oil, gold and wheat markets, as well as geopolitical tensions, uncertainty over US policy and volatility in the oil and US equities markets, is provided by the multivariate causality test. When low extreme quantiles or cross extreme quantiles are taken into account, these results are substantial and sturdy. Lastly, after adjusting for the effect of crude oil prices, this study’s wavelet coherence results indicate diminished long-run connections between the GCC stock market and the chosen global determinants.
Research limitations/implications
Despite the implications of the author’s research for decision makers, there are some limitations mainly related to the selection of Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) GCC ex-Saudi Arabia. Considering the economic importance of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) in the region, the author believes that it would be better to include this country in the data to obtain more robust results. In addition, there is evidence in the literature of the existence of heterogeneous responses to global shocks; some markets are more vulnerable than others. This is another limitation of this study, as this study considers the GCC as a bloc rather than each country individually. These limitations could open up further research opportunities.
Originality/value
These findings are important for investors seeking to manage their portfolios under extreme market conditions. They are also important for government policies aimed at mitigating the impact of external shocks.
Details