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Talking up Ukraine-Russia war risk is destabilising

Location:

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Assessing warlike talk in Russia and Ukraine.

Differences will hamper Azerbaijan-Armenia reset

Location:

AZERBAIJAN/ARMENIA

Efforts to unblock negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh.

Afghanistan's neighbours irritated by US rapprochement

Location:

AFGHANISTAN

After a series of conciliatory moves, the Biden administration is trying to persuade the Taliban to make concessions in return for financial assistance. Taliban leaders are…

Afghan Taliban draw breath as they decide how to rule

Location:

AFGHANISTAN

The Taliban have not yet declared themselves in charge; they are talking about consulting on an "inclusive" government but this is to secure international legitimacy through the…

Evidence tilts towards Ukraine war likelihood

Location:

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Western leaders are talking to one another and Moscow in a bid to change Russian President Vladimir Putin's mind -- if he has in fact decided on an attack. If he plans an…

Russia and Iran likely to complete direct rail route

Location:

RUSSIA/IRAN

Sanctions have constrained east-west transit through Russia and revived its interest in north-south connections to Gulf ports and India. Moscow and Tehran, each keen to circumvent…

South Sudan faces a rocky road to first elections

Location:

SOUTH SUDAN

The current government’s mandate was meant to end this year. Instead, elections prescribed for 2021 have been delayed to 2023, ostensibly to allow more time to implement the 2018…

Risks on the Korean peninsula will rise this year

Location:

NORTH KOREA

The concerns are twofold: what North Korean leader Kim Jong-un will do next and how President Yoon Suk-yeol, his tough-talking but inexperienced South Korean counterpart, might…

Hungary will struggle to mend its fiscal woes

Location:

HUNGARY

This is the lowest monthly widening since the start of 2023. Hungary aims to curb its 3.9% of GDP budget deficit in order to avoid being placed under the EU’s Excessive Deficit…

Migration concerns will stifle African free movement

Location:

AFRICA

Outlook for African free movement initiatives.