Search results

1 – 10 of 846
Article
Publication date: 1 November 2023

Muhammad Asim, Muhammad Yar Khan and Khuram Shafi

The study aims to investigate the presence of herding behavior in the stock market of UK with a special emphasis on news sentiment regarding the economy. The authors focus on the…

Abstract

Purpose

The study aims to investigate the presence of herding behavior in the stock market of UK with a special emphasis on news sentiment regarding the economy. The authors focus on the news sentiment because in the current digital era, investors take their decision making on the basis of current trends projected by news and media platforms.

Design/methodology/approach

For empirical modeling, the authors use machine learning models to investigate the presence of herding behavior in UK stock market for the period starting from 2006 to 2021. The authors use support vector regression, single layer neural network and multilayer neural network models to predict the herding behavior in the stock market of the UK. The authors estimate the herding coefficients using all the models and compare the findings with the linear regression model.

Findings

The results show a strong evidence of herding behavior in the stock market of the UK during different time regimes. Furthermore, when the authors incorporate the economic uncertainty news sentiment in the model, the results show a significant improvement. The results of support vector regression, single layer perceptron and multilayer perceptron model show the evidence of herding behavior in UK stock market during global financial crises of 2007–08 and COVID’19 period. In addition, the authors compare the findings with the linear regression which provides no evidence of herding behavior in all the regimes except COVID’19. The results also provide deep insights for both individual investors and policy makers to construct efficient portfolios and avoid market crashes, respectively.

Originality/value

In the existing literature of herding behavior, news sentiment regarding economic uncertainty has not been used before. However, in the present era this parameter is quite critical in context of market anomalies hence and needs to be investigated. In addition, the literature exhibits varying results about the existence of herding behavior when different methodologies are used. In this context, the use of machine learning models is quite rare in the herding literature. The machine learning models are quite robust and provide accurate results. Therefore, this research study uses three different models, i.e. single layer perceptron model, multilayer perceptron model and support vector regression model to investigate the herding behavior in the stock market of the UK. A comparative analysis is also presented among the results of all the models. The study sheds light on the importance of economic uncertainty news sentiment to predict the herding behavior.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 February 2024

Magdalena Saldana-Perez, Giovanni Guzmán, Carolina Palma-Preciado, Amadeo Argüelles-Cruz and Marco Moreno-Ibarra

Climate change is a problem that concerns all of us. Despite the information produced by organizations such as the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices and the…

Abstract

Purpose

Climate change is a problem that concerns all of us. Despite the information produced by organizations such as the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices and the United Nations, only a few cities have been planned taking into account the climate changes indices. This paper aims to study climatic variations, how climate conditions might change in the future and how these changes will affect the activities and living conditions in cities, specifically focusing on Mexico city.

Design/methodology/approach

In this approach, two distinct machine learning regression models, k-Nearest Neighbors and Support Vector Regression, were used to predict variations in climate change indices within select urban areas of Mexico city. The calculated indices are based on maximum, minimum and average temperature data collected from the National Water Commission in Mexico and the Scientific Research Center of Ensenada. The methodology involves pre-processing temperature data to create a training data set for regression algorithms. It then computes predictions for each temperature parameter and ultimately assesses the performance of these algorithms based on precision metrics scores.

Findings

This paper combines a geospatial perspective with computational tools and machine learning algorithms. Among the two regression algorithms used, it was observed that k-Nearest Neighbors produced superior results, achieving an R2 score of 0.99, in contrast to Support Vector Regression, which yielded an R2 score of 0.74.

Originality/value

The full potential of machine learning algorithms has not been fully harnessed for predicting climate indices. This paper also identifies the strengths and weaknesses of each algorithm and how the generated estimations can then be considered in the decision-making process.

Details

Transforming Government: People, Process and Policy, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6166

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 January 2024

Visar Hoxha

The purpose of this study is to carry out a comparative analysis of four machine learning models such as linear regression, decision trees, k-nearest neighbors and support vector…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to carry out a comparative analysis of four machine learning models such as linear regression, decision trees, k-nearest neighbors and support vector regression in predicting housing prices in Prishtina.

Design/methodology/approach

Using Python, the models were assessed on a data set of 1,512 property transactions with mean squared error, coefficient of determination, mean absolute error and root mean squared error as metrics. The study also conducts variable importance test.

Findings

Upon preprocessing and standardization of the data, the models were trained and tested, with the decision tree model producing the best performance. The variable importance test found the distance from central business district and distance to the road leading to central business district as the most relevant drivers of housing prices across all models, with the exception of support vector machine model, which showed minimal importance for all variables.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, the originality of this research rests in its methodological approach and emphasis on Prishtina's real estate market, which has never been studied in this context, and its findings may be generalizable to comparable transitional economies with booming real estate sector like Kosovo.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 9 May 2022

Khalid Iqbal and Muhammad Shehrayar Khan

In this digital era, email is the most pervasive form of communication between people. Many users become a victim of spam emails and their data have been exposed.

9097

Abstract

Purpose

In this digital era, email is the most pervasive form of communication between people. Many users become a victim of spam emails and their data have been exposed.

Design/methodology/approach

Researchers contribute to solving this problem by a focus on advanced machine learning algorithms and improved models for detecting spam emails but there is still a gap in features. To achieve good results, features also play an important role. To evaluate the performance of applied classifiers, 10-fold cross-validation is used.

Findings

The results approve that the spam emails are correctly classified with the accuracy of 98.00% for the Support Vector Machine and 98.06% for the Artificial Neural Network as compared to other applied machine learning classifiers.

Originality/value

In this paper, Point-Biserial correlation is applied to each feature concerning the class label of the University of California Irvine (UCI) spambase email dataset to select the best features. Extensive experiments are conducted on selected features by training the different classifiers.

Details

Applied Computing and Informatics, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2634-1964

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 April 2024

Yansen Wu, Dongsheng Wen, Anmin Zhao, Haobo Liu and Ke Li

This study aims to study the thermal identification issue by harvesting both solar energy and atmospheric thermal updraft for a solar-powered unmanned aerial vehicle (SUAV) and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to study the thermal identification issue by harvesting both solar energy and atmospheric thermal updraft for a solar-powered unmanned aerial vehicle (SUAV) and its electric energy performance under continuous soaring conditions.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors develop a specific dynamic model for SUAVs in both soaring and cruise modes. The support vector machine regression (SVMR) is adopted to estimate the thermal position, and it is combined with feedback control to implement the SUAV soaring in the updraft. Then, the optimal path model is built based on the graph theory considering the existence of several thermals distributed in the environment. The procedure is proposed to estimate the electricity cost of SUAV during flight as well as soaring, and making use of dynamic programming to maximize electric energy.

Findings

The simulation results present the integrated control method could allow SUAV to soar with the updraft. In addition, the proposed approach allows the SUAV to fly to the destination using distributed thermals while reducing the electric energy use.

Originality/value

Two simplified dynamic models are constructed for simulation considering there are different flight mode. Besides, the data-driven-based SVMR method is proposed to support SUAV soaring. Furthermore, instead of using length, the energy cost coefficient in optimization problem is set as electric power, which is more suitable for SUAV because its advantage is to transfer the three-dimensional path planning problem into the two-dimensional.

Details

Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1748-8842

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 March 2023

Antonijo Marijić and Marina Bagić Babac

Genre classification of songs based on lyrics is a challenging task even for humans, however, state-of-the-art natural language processing has recently offered advanced solutions…

Abstract

Purpose

Genre classification of songs based on lyrics is a challenging task even for humans, however, state-of-the-art natural language processing has recently offered advanced solutions to this task. The purpose of this study is to advance the understanding and application of natural language processing and deep learning in the domain of music genre classification, while also contributing to the broader themes of global knowledge and communication, and sustainable preservation of cultural heritage.

Design/methodology/approach

The main contribution of this study is the development and evaluation of various machine and deep learning models for song genre classification. Additionally, we investigated the effect of different word embeddings, including Global Vectors for Word Representation (GloVe) and Word2Vec, on the classification performance. The tested models range from benchmarks such as logistic regression, support vector machine and random forest, to more complex neural network architectures and transformer-based models, such as recurrent neural network, long short-term memory, bidirectional long short-term memory and bidirectional encoder representations from transformers (BERT).

Findings

The authors conducted experiments on both English and multilingual data sets for genre classification. The results show that the BERT model achieved the best accuracy on the English data set, whereas cross-lingual language model pretraining based on RoBERTa (XLM-RoBERTa) performed the best on the multilingual data set. This study found that songs in the metal genre were the most accurately labeled, as their text style and topics were the most distinct from other genres. On the contrary, songs from the pop and rock genres were more challenging to differentiate. This study also compared the impact of different word embeddings on the classification task and found that models with GloVe word embeddings outperformed Word2Vec and the learning embedding layer.

Originality/value

This study presents the implementation, testing and comparison of various machine and deep learning models for genre classification. The results demonstrate that transformer models, including BERT, robustly optimized BERT pretraining approach, distilled bidirectional encoder representations from transformers, bidirectional and auto-regressive transformers and XLM-RoBERTa, outperformed other models.

Details

Global Knowledge, Memory and Communication, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-9342

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 September 2023

Fatma Ben Hamadou, Taicir Mezghani, Ramzi Zouari and Mouna Boujelbène-Abbes

This study aims to assess the predictive performance of various factors on Bitcoin returns, used for the development of a robust forecasting support decision model using machine…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to assess the predictive performance of various factors on Bitcoin returns, used for the development of a robust forecasting support decision model using machine learning techniques, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. More specifically, the authors investigate the impact of the investor's sentiment on forecasting the Bitcoin returns.

Design/methodology/approach

This method uses feature selection techniques to assess the predictive performance of the different factors on the Bitcoin returns. Subsequently, the authors developed a forecasting model for the Bitcoin returns by evaluating the accuracy of three machine learning models, namely the one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D-CNN), the bidirectional deep learning long short-term memory (BLSTM) neural networks and the support vector machine model.

Findings

The findings shed light on the importance of the investor's sentiment in enhancing the accuracy of the return forecasts. Furthermore, the investor's sentiment, the economic policy uncertainty (EPU), gold and the financial stress index (FSI) are the top best determinants before the COVID-19 outbreak. However, there was a significant decrease in the importance of financial uncertainty (FSI and EPU) during the COVID-19 pandemic, proving that investors attach much more importance to the sentimental side than to the traditional uncertainty factors. Regarding the forecasting model accuracy, the authors found that the 1D-CNN model showed the lowest prediction error before and during the COVID-19 and outperformed the other models. Therefore, it represents the best-performing algorithm among its tested counterparts, while the BLSTM is the least accurate model.

Practical implications

Moreover, this study contributes to a better understanding relevant for investors and policymakers to better forecast the returns based on a forecasting model, which can be used as a decision-making support tool. Therefore, the obtained results can drive the investors to uncover potential determinants, which forecast the Bitcoin returns. It actually gives more weight to the sentiment rather than financial uncertainties factors during the pandemic crisis.

Originality/value

To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to have attempted to construct a novel crypto sentiment measure and use it to develop a Bitcoin forecasting model. In fact, the development of a robust forecasting model, using machine learning techniques, offers a practical value as a decision-making support tool for investment strategies and policy formulation.

Details

EuroMed Journal of Business, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1450-2194

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 22 March 2024

Shahin Alipour Bonab, Alireza Sadeghi and Mohammad Yazdani-Asrami

The ionization of the air surrounding the phase conductor in high-voltage transmission lines results in a phenomenon known as the Corona effect. To avoid this, Corona rings are…

Abstract

Purpose

The ionization of the air surrounding the phase conductor in high-voltage transmission lines results in a phenomenon known as the Corona effect. To avoid this, Corona rings are used to dampen the electric field imposed on the insulator. The purpose of this study is to present a fast and intelligent surrogate model for determination of the electric field imposed on the surface of a 120 kV composite insulator, in presence of the Corona ring.

Design/methodology/approach

Usually, the structural design parameters of the Corona ring are selected through an optimization procedure combined with some numerical simulations such as finite element method (FEM). These methods are slow and computationally expensive and thus, extremely reducing the speed of optimization problems. In this paper, a novel surrogate model was proposed that could calculate the maximum electric field imposed on a ceramic insulator in a 120 kV line. The surrogate model was created based on the different scenarios of height, radius and inner radius of the Corona ring, as the inputs of the model, while the maximum electric field on the body of the insulator was considered as the output.

Findings

The proposed model was based on artificial intelligence techniques that have high accuracy and low computational time. Three methods were used here to develop the AI-based surrogate model, namely, Cascade forward neural network (CFNN), support vector regression and K-nearest neighbors regression. The results indicated that the CFNN has the highest accuracy among these methods with 99.81% R-squared and only 0.045468 root mean squared error while the testing time is less than 10 ms.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, for the first time, a surrogate method is proposed for the prediction of the maximum electric field imposed on the high voltage insulators in the presence Corona ring which is faster than any conventional finite element method.

Details

World Journal of Engineering, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1708-5284

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 January 2022

Dinda Thalia Andariesta and Meditya Wasesa

This research presents machine learning models for predicting international tourist arrivals in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic using multisource Internet data.

4857

Abstract

Purpose

This research presents machine learning models for predicting international tourist arrivals in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic using multisource Internet data.

Design/methodology/approach

To develop the prediction models, this research utilizes multisource Internet data from TripAdvisor travel forum and Google Trends. Temporal factors, posts and comments, search queries index and previous tourist arrivals records are set as predictors. Four sets of predictors and three distinct data compositions were utilized for training the machine learning models, namely artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector regression (SVR) and random forest (RF). To evaluate the models, this research uses three accuracy metrics, namely root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).

Findings

Prediction models trained using multisource Internet data predictors have better accuracy than those trained using single-source Internet data or other predictors. In addition, using more training sets that cover the phenomenon of interest, such as COVID-19, will enhance the prediction model's learning process and accuracy. The experiments show that the RF models have better prediction accuracy than the ANN and SVR models.

Originality/value

First, this study pioneers the practice of a multisource Internet data approach in predicting tourist arrivals amid the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic. Second, the use of multisource Internet data to improve prediction performance is validated with real empirical data. Finally, this is one of the few papers to provide perspectives on the current dynamics of Indonesia's tourism demand.

Article
Publication date: 3 November 2023

Xiaojie Xu and Yun Zhang

The Chinese housing market has gone through rapid growth during the past decade, and house price forecasting has evolved to be a significant issue that draws enormous attention…

32

Abstract

Purpose

The Chinese housing market has gone through rapid growth during the past decade, and house price forecasting has evolved to be a significant issue that draws enormous attention from investors, policy makers and researchers. This study investigates neural networks for composite property price index forecasting from ten major Chinese cities for the period of July 2005–April 2021.

Design/methodology/approach

The goal is to build simple and accurate neural network models that contribute to pure technical forecasts of composite property prices. To facilitate the analysis, the authors consider different model settings across algorithms, delays, hidden neurons and data spitting ratios.

Findings

The authors arrive at a pretty simple neural network with six delays and three hidden neurons, which generates rather stable performance of average relative root mean square errors across the ten cities below 1% for the training, validation and testing phases.

Originality/value

Results here could be utilized on a standalone basis or combined with fundamental forecasts to help form perspectives of composite property price trends and conduct policy analysis.

Details

Property Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-7472

Keywords

1 – 10 of 846