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Article
Publication date: 27 January 2012

Bokyoung Kang, Dongsoo Kim and Suk‐Ho Kang

The purpose of this paper is to provide industrial managers with insight into the real‐time progress of running processes. The authors formulated a periodic performance…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide industrial managers with insight into the real‐time progress of running processes. The authors formulated a periodic performance prediction algorithm for use in a proposed novel approach to real‐time business process monitoring.

Design/methodology/approach

In the course of process executions, the final performance is predicted probabilistically based on partial information. Imputation method is used to generate probable progresses of ongoing process and Support Vector Machine classifies the performances of them. These procedures are periodically iterated along with the real‐time progress in order to describe the ongoing status.

Findings

The proposed approach can describe the ongoing status as the probability that the process will be executed continually and terminated as the identical result. Furthermore, before the actual occurrence, a proactive warning can be provided for implicit notification of eventualities if the probability of occurrence of the given outcome exceeds the threshold.

Research limitations/implications

The performance of the proactive warning strategy was evaluated only for accuracy and proactiveness. However, the process will be improved by additionally considering opportunity costs and benefits from actual termination types and their warning errors.

Originality/value

Whereas the conventional monitoring approaches only classify the already occurred result of a terminated instance deterministically, the proposed approach predicts the possible results of an ongoing instance probabilistically over entire monitoring periods. As such, the proposed approach can provide the real‐time indicator describing the current capability of ongoing process.

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Article
Publication date: 24 May 2011

Bokyoung Kang, Jae‐Yoon Jung, Nam Wook Cho and Suk‐Ho Kang

The purpose of this paper is to help industrial managers monitor and analyze critical performance indicators in real time during the execution of business processes by…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to help industrial managers monitor and analyze critical performance indicators in real time during the execution of business processes by proposing a visualization technique using an extended formal concept analysis (FCA). The proposed approach monitors the current progress of ongoing processes and periodically predicts their probable routes and performances.

Design/methodology/approach

FCA is utilized to analyze relations among patterns of events in historical process logs, and this method of data analysis visualizes the relations in a concept lattice. To apply FCA to real‐time business process monitoring, the authors extended the conventional concept lattice into a reachability lattice, which enables managers to recognize reachable patterns of events in specific instances of business processes.

Findings

By using a reachability lattice, expected values of a target key performance indicator are predicted and traced along with probable outcomes. Analysis is conducted periodically as the monitoring time elapses over the course of business processes.

Practical implications

The proposed approach focuses on the visualization of probable event occurrences on the basis of historical data. Such visualization can be utilized by industrial managers to evaluate the status of any given instance during business processes and to easily predict possible subsequent states for purposes of effective and efficient decision making. The proposed method was developed in a prototype system for proof of concept and has been illustrated using a simplified real‐world example of a business process in a telecommunications company.

Originality/value

The main contribution of this paper lies in the development of a real‐time monitoring approach of ongoing processes. The authors have provided a new data structure, namely a reachability lattice, which visualizes real‐time progress of ongoing business processes. As a result, current and probable next states can be predicted graphically using periodically conducted analysis during the processes.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 111 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 27 January 2012

KwangSup Shin, YongWoo Shin, Ji‐Hye Kwon and Suk‐Ho Kang

The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel risk assessment approach that considers the inter‐relationship between supply chain risks and the structure of network at…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to propose a novel risk assessment approach that considers the inter‐relationship between supply chain risks and the structure of network at the same time. To reduce the impact of the supply chain risk and enhance the flexibility of transportation route finding during the product delivery, the authors propose a way to model the risk propagation and how to integrate it with the supply chain network using Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). The key risk indicators (KRI) of each vertex and edge of the supply chain network which are measured or computed by the proposed approach can be utilized to develop the optimal transportation route in the execution phase.

Design/methodology/approach

BBN is utilized to illustrate the relations among supply chain risks which may take place in a certain vertex. To apply the BBN to the supply chain network, the authors develop the framework to integrate BBN and the supply chain network by using the general functions that describe the characteristics of the risk factors and inter‐relationships between vertices.

Findings

By using the proposed risk assessment and dynamic route‐finding approach, it is possible to reduce the unexpected cost from the supply chain risk and overcome the limitations of previous risk management strategies which focus on developing counter plans and assume the independency of supply chain risks.

Practical implications

The proposed approach describes how to develop KRI‐BBN to model the risk propagation and to integrate the KRI‐BBN and supply chain network. The KRIs directly measured or computed by KRI‐BBN in real time can be utilized to alternate supply chain execution plans such as inventory management, demand management and product flow management. Transportation problem considering risk is developed to show how to apply the proposed approach and numerical experiments are conducted to prove the cost effectiveness.

Originality/value

The contribution of this paper lies in the way of developing KRI‐BBN to assess the supply chain risk and modelling of the risk propagation by integrating KRI‐BBN with supply chain network. With the proposed risk assessment approach, it is able to alternate the transportation route to minimize the unexpected cost and transportation cost simultaneously.

Details

Industrial Management & Data Systems, vol. 112 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0263-5577

Keywords

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