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Article
Publication date: 13 February 2023

Yasmine Essafi Zouari and Aya Nasreddine

Over a long period, even low inflation has an impact on portfolio value and households’ purchasing power. In such a context, inflation hedging should remain an important issue for…

Abstract

Purpose

Over a long period, even low inflation has an impact on portfolio value and households’ purchasing power. In such a context, inflation hedging should remain an important issue for investors. In particular, long-term investors, who are concerned with the protection of their wealth, seek to hold effective hedging assets. This study aims to demonstrate that residential assets in “Grand Paris” are a hedge against inflation and particularly against its unexpected component.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, the physical residential markets in 127 communes in Paris and the Parisian first-ring suburbs are considered as potential asset classes. We simplified the analysis by clustering the 127 communes into five homogenous groups using ascending hierarchical classification (AHC). Then, we test the hedging ability of these groups within a mixed asset portfolios using both correlation and regression analysis.

Findings

This paper presents an analysis of the “Grand Paris” housing market and its inflation hedging ability with comparison to other financial asset classes. Results show that the five housing groups act as a highly positive hedge against unexpected inflation. Furthermore, cash and bonds seem to provide, respectively, a partial and an over hedge against unexpected inflation. Stocks act as a perverse hedge against unexpected inflation and provide no significant hedge against expected inflation. Also, indirect listed real estate demonstrates little correlation with inflation, which makes us reject its hedging ability contrary to physical residential real estate.

Research limitations/implications

The inflation topic: although several researches exist that question the hedging property of real estate, very few concentrate on physical residential assets and to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the only one that targets the “Grand Paris” area. Residential assets of the “Grand Paris” communes are confirmed to be a hedge against inflation and particularly against its unexpected component thanks to its capital appreciation rather than income one. Also, we show that the listed real estate in France (Sociétés d’Investissement Immobilier Cotée) does not provide the same hedging properties contrary to the US real estate investment trusts (REITs) who demonstrate this ability. Listed real estate could thus not be used interchangeably with housing to protect from inflation in the French market.

Practical implications

Protection of investors against inflation and in particular in the face of its return to France in 2022. Reassuring promoters and investors of the interest of residential investment projects in “Greater Paris” and of the potential that this holds.

Social implications

Inflation takes a chunk out of the purchasing power of money and thereby erodes the real value of people’s finance. Investors and households who seek protection from inflation erosion should invest in direct housing, and in particular within areas that are experiencing an effective metropolization process.

Originality/value

The originality of the study is precisely relative to the geographical area studied. The latter has experienced favorable economic conditions for several years and offers interesting fundamentals to explore and exploit in investment strategies that prove capable of protecting against imminent inflation. The database is specific to this project and has been built through the compilation of several sources and with the support of BNP Paribas Real Estate.

Details

International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, vol. 17 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8270

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 June 2023

Fatemeh Binesh, Amanda Mapel Belarmino, Jean-Pierre van der Rest, Ashok K. Singh and Carola Raab

This study aims to propose a risk-induced game theoretic forecasting model to predict average daily rate (ADR) under COVID-19, using an advanced recurrent neural network.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to propose a risk-induced game theoretic forecasting model to predict average daily rate (ADR) under COVID-19, using an advanced recurrent neural network.

Design/methodology/approach

Using three data sets from upper-midscale hotels in three locations (i.e. urban, interstate and suburb), from January 1, 2018, to August 31, 2020, three long-term, short-term memory (LSTM) models were evaluated against five traditional forecasting models.

Findings

The models proposed in this study outperform traditional methods, such that the simplest LSTM model is more accurate than most of the benchmark models in two of the three tested hotels. In particular, the results show that traditional methods are inefficient in hotels with rapid fluctuations of demand and ADR, as observed during the pandemic. In contrast, LSTM models perform more accurately for these hotels.

Research limitations/implications

This study is limited by its use of American data and data from midscale hotels as well as only predicting ADR.

Practical implications

This study produced a reliable, accurate forecasting model considering risk and competitor behavior.

Theoretical implications

This paper extends the application of game theory principles to ADR forecasting and combines it with the concept of risk for forecasting during uncertain times.

Originality/value

This study is the first study, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, to use actual hotel data from the COVID-19 pandemic to determine an appropriate neural network forecasting method for times of uncertainty. The application of Shapley value and operational risk obtained a game-theoretic property-level model, which fits best.

Details

International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, vol. 36 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0959-6119

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 September 2023

Hazel Easthope, Laura Crommelin, Charles Gillon, Simon Pinnegar, Kristian Ruming and Sha Liu

High-density development requires large land parcels, but fragmented land ownership can impede redevelopment. While earlier compact city development in Sydney occurred on…

Abstract

Purpose

High-density development requires large land parcels, but fragmented land ownership can impede redevelopment. While earlier compact city development in Sydney occurred on large-scale brownfield sites, redeveloping and re-amalgamating older strata-titled properties is now integral to further densification. The purpose of this study is to examine collective sales activity in one Sydney suburb where multiple strata-titled redevelopments and re-amalgamations have been attempted. The authors explore how owners navigate the process of selling collectively, focusing on their experience of legislation introduced to facilitate this process, the Strata Schemes Development Act 2015 [New South Wales (NSW)].

Design/methodology/approach

By reviewing sales listings, development applications and media coverage, and interviewing owners, lawyers and estate agents, the authors map out collective sale activity in a case study area in Sydney’s northwest.

Findings

Strata collective sales are slow and difficult to complete, even when planning and market drivers align. Owners find the Strata Scheme Development Act 2015 (NSW) difficult to navigate and it has not prevented strategic blocking attempts by competing developers. The long timelines required to organise collective sales can result in failure if the market shifts in the interim. Nonetheless, owners remain interested in selling collectively.

Originality/value

This case study is important for understanding the barriers to redevelopment to achieve a more compact city. It highlights lessons for other jurisdictions considering similar legislative changes. It also suggests that legislative change alone is insufficient to resolve the planning challenges created by hyper-fragmentation of land through strata-title development.

Details

Journal of Property, Planning and Environmental Law, vol. 16 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-9407

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Urban Resilience: Lessons on Urban Environmental Planning from Turkey
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83549-617-6

Abstract

Details

A Neoliberal Framework for Urban Housing Development in the Global South
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83797-034-6

Article
Publication date: 1 March 2023

Hossein Shakibaei, Mohammad Reza Farhadi-Ramin, Mohammad Alipour-Vaezi, Amir Aghsami and Masoud Rabbani

Every day, small and big incidents happen all over the world, and given the human, financial and spiritual damage they cause, proper planning should be sought to deal with them so…

Abstract

Purpose

Every day, small and big incidents happen all over the world, and given the human, financial and spiritual damage they cause, proper planning should be sought to deal with them so they can be appropriately managed in times of crisis. This study aims to examine humanitarian supply chain models.

Design/methodology/approach

A new model is developed to pursue the necessary relations in an optimal way that will minimize human, financial and moral losses. In this developed model, in order to optimize the problem and minimize the amount of human and financial losses, the following subjects have been applied: magnitude of the areas in which an accident may occur as obtained by multiple attribute decision-making methods, the distances between relief centers, the number of available rescuers, the number of rescuers required and the risk level of each patient which is determined using previous data and machine learning (ML) algorithms.

Findings

For this purpose, a case study in the east of Tehran has been conducted. According to the results obtained from the algorithms, problem modeling and case study, the accuracy of the proposed model is evaluated very well.

Originality/value

Obtaining each injured person's priority using ML techniques and each area's importance or risk level, besides developing a bi-objective mathematical model and using multiple attribute decision-making methods, make this study unique among very few studies that concern ML in the humanitarian supply chain. Moreover, the findings validate the results and the model's functionality very well.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 15 April 2024

Pauli Komonen

Due to e-commerce growth, technological advancements and environmental concerns, developing a more nuanced service portfolio has become a critical issue for last-mile logistics…

Abstract

Purpose

Due to e-commerce growth, technological advancements and environmental concerns, developing a more nuanced service portfolio has become a critical issue for last-mile logistics service providers. Concurrently, consumers are adopting new modes of consumption. This paper aims to investigate the potential for last-mile logistics service providers to act as intermediaries in access-based consumption and to revitalise their service offerings through product-service systems – a pioneering strategy not executed in the market yet.

Design/methodology/approach

This strategic customer foresight study uses a quantitative survey of 1,000 respondents and an online focus group comprising 10 early adopter consumers to investigate emerging last-mile service models. Potential service concepts were identified through the survey, and two distinct concepts were subsequently selected for evaluation and co-development within the focus group. The research was conducted in partnership with an SME logistics company in Finland.

Findings

The consumers expressed selective interest in access-based consumption related to the proposed offering of essential household goods. Young adults and consumers in early middle age living in the city centre emerged as the most potential user groups. Economic reasons and short-term needs were the primary motivations for adopting access-based consumption.

Practical implications

The study showed that engaging consumers in a customer foresight process is viable for SMEs innovating their offerings and demonstrates how the process works in practice.

Originality/value

Documented cases of customer integration into foresight processes are rare in earlier research, and this paper extends the knowledge base through a multidisciplinary examination of future consumer behaviour in the last-mile logistics domain. The paper also expands the limited literature on the role of logistics in access-based consumption.

Details

foresight, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 13 February 2024

Ke Zhang and Ailing Huang

The purpose of this paper is to provide a guiding framework for studying the travel patterns of PT users. The combination of public transit (PT) users’ travel data and user…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide a guiding framework for studying the travel patterns of PT users. The combination of public transit (PT) users’ travel data and user profiling (UP) technology to draw a portrait of PT users can effectively understand users’ travel patterns, which is important to help optimize the scheduling of PT operations and planning of the network.

Design/methodology/approach

To achieve the purpose, the paper presents a three-level classification method to construct the labeling framework. A station area attribute mining method based on the term frequency-inverse document frequency weighting algorithm is proposed to determine the point of interest attributes of user travel stations, and the spatial correlation patterns of user travel stations are calculated by Moran’s Index. User travel feature labels are extracted from travel data containing Beijing PT data for one consecutive week.

Findings

In this paper, a universal PT user labeling system is obtained and some related methods are conducted including four categories of user-preferred travel area patterns mining and a station area attribute mining method. In the application of the Beijing case, a precise exploration of the spatiotemporal characteristics of PT users is conducted, resulting in the final Beijing PTUP system.

Originality/value

This paper combines UP technology with big data analysis techniques to study the travel patterns of PT users. A user profile label framework is constructed, and data visualization, statistical analysis and K-means clustering are applied to extract specific labels instructed by this system framework. Through these analytical processes, the user labeling system is improved, and its applicability is validated through the analysis of a Beijing PT case.

Details

Smart and Resilient Transportation, vol. 6 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2632-0487

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 August 2023

Changro Lee

Unstructured data such as images have defied usage in property valuation for a long time. Instead, structured data in tabular format are commonly employed to estimate property…

Abstract

Purpose

Unstructured data such as images have defied usage in property valuation for a long time. Instead, structured data in tabular format are commonly employed to estimate property prices. This study attempts to quantify the shape of land lots and uses the resultant output as an input variable for subsequent land valuation models.

Design/methodology/approach

Imagery data containing land lot shapes are fed into a convolutional neural network, and the shape of land lots is classified into two categories, regular and irregular-shaped. Then, the intermediate output (regularity score) is utilized in four downstream models to estimate land prices: random forest, gradient boosting, support vector machine and regression models.

Findings

Quantification of the land lot shapes and their exploitation in valuation led to an improvement in the predictive accuracy for all subsequent models.

Originality/value

The study findings are expected to promote the adoption of elusive price determinants such as the shape of a land lot, appearance of a house and the landscape of a neighborhood in property appraisal practices.

Details

Data Technologies and Applications, vol. 58 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-9288

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 30 October 2023

Guido Migliaccio and Andrea De Palma

This study illustrates the economic and financial dynamics of the sector, analysing the evolution of the main ratios of profitability and financial structure of 1,559 Italian real…

1207

Abstract

Purpose

This study illustrates the economic and financial dynamics of the sector, analysing the evolution of the main ratios of profitability and financial structure of 1,559 Italian real estate companies divided into the three macro-regions: North, Centre and South, in the period 2011–2020. In this way, it is also possible to verify the responsiveness to the 2020 pandemic crisis.

Design/methodology/approach

The analysis uses descriptive statistics tools and the ANOVA method of analysis of variance, supplemented by the Tukey–Kramer test, to identify significant differences between the three Italian macro-regions.

Findings

The study shows the increase in profitability after the 2008 crisis, despite its reverberation in the years 2012–2013. The financial structure of companies improved almost everywhere. The pandemic had modest effects on performance.

Research limitations/implications

In the future, other indices should be considered to gain a more comprehensive view. This is a quantitative study based on financial statements data that neglects other important economic and social factors.

Practical implications

Public policies could use this study for better interventions to support the sector. In addition, internal management can compare their company's performance with the industry average to identify possible improvements.

Social implications

The research analyses an economic field that employs a large number of people, especially when considering the construction and real estate services covered by this analysis.

Originality/value

The study contributes to the literature by providing a quantitative analysis of industry dynamics, with comparative information that can be deduced from financial statements over the years.

Details

International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, vol. 73 no. 11
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1741-0401

Keywords

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