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Article

Qiuping Wang, Subing Liu and Haixia Yan

Due to high efficiency and low carbon of natural gas, the consumption of natural gas is increasing rapidly, and the prediction of natural gas consumption has become the…

Abstract

Purpose

Due to high efficiency and low carbon of natural gas, the consumption of natural gas is increasing rapidly, and the prediction of natural gas consumption has become the focus. The purpose of this paper is to employ a prediction technique by combining grey prediction model and trigonometric residual modification for predicting average per capita natural gas consumption of households in China.

Design/methodology/approach

The GM(1,1) model is utilised to obtain the tendency term, then the generalised trigonometric model is used to catch the periodic phenomenon from the residual data of GM(1,1) model for improving predicting accuracy.

Findings

The case verified the view of Xie and Liu: “When the value of a is less, DGM model and GM(1,1) model can substitute each other.” The combination of the GM(1,1) and the trigonometric residual modification technique can observably improve the predicting accuracy of average per capita natural gas consumption of households in China. The mean absolute percentage errors of GM(1,1) model, DGM(1,1), unbiased grey forecasting model, and TGM model in ex post testing stage (from 2013 to 2015) are 32.5510, 33.5985, 36.9980, and 5.2996 per cent, respectively. The TGM model is suitable for the prediction of average per capita natural gas consumption of households in China.

Practical implications

According to the historical data of average per capita natural gas consumption of households in China, the authors construct GM(1,1) model, DGM(1,1) model, unbiased grey forecasting model, and GM(1,1) model with trigonometric residual modification. The accuracy of TGM is the best. TGM helps to improve the accuracy of GM(1,1).

Originality/value

This paper gives a successful practical application of grey model GM(1,1) with the trigonometric residual modification, where the cyclic variations exist in the residual series. The case demonstrates the effectiveness of trigonometric grey prediction model, which is helpful to understand the modeling mechanism of trigonometric grey prediction model.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 9 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

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Article

Subing Liu, Yin Chunwu and Cao Dazhi

The purpose of this paper is to provide a new recursive GM (1,1) model based on forgetting factor and apply it to the modern weapon and equipment system.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide a new recursive GM (1,1) model based on forgetting factor and apply it to the modern weapon and equipment system.

Design/methodology/approach

In order to distinguish the contribution of new and old data to the grey prediction model with new information, the authors add forgetting factor to the objective function. The purpose of the above is to realize the dynamic weighting of new and old modeling data, and to gradually forget the old information. Second, the recursive estimation algorithm of grey prediction model parameters is given, and the new information is added in real time to improve the prediction accuracy of the model.

Findings

It is shown that the recursive GM (1,1) model based on forgetting factor can achieve both high effectiveness and high efficiency.

Originality/value

The paper succeeds in proposing a recursive GM (1,1) model based on forgetting factor, which has high accuracy. The model is applied to the field of modern weapon and equipment system and the result the model is better than the GM(1,1) model. The experimental results show the effectiveness and the efficiency of the prosed method.

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Article

Qiuping Wang, Subing Liu and Guoqiang Xiong

The aggregation of information from a group of decision experts for developing collective opinion is the important question in practice. The purpose of this paper is to…

Abstract

Purpose

The aggregation of information from a group of decision experts for developing collective opinion is the important question in practice. The purpose of this paper is to provide a group decision-making method via ordered weighted aggregation (OWA) operator and grey incidence analysis.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, OWA operator provides aggregation of attribute values to form an overall decision for each decision expert, and grey incidence model provides aggregation of decision experts’ evaluations to form overall score for each alternative. The example illustrates the procedure and practicability of the proposed model.

Findings

A new thought for multiple attribute group decision-making problems is given. The proposed method produces an overall desirability score for each alternative.

Practical implications

This is to obtain a more comprehensive and realistic solution to the given group decision-making problem. The proposed analysis method of group decision-making problems reveals vitality of grey systems theory.

Originality/value

This paper combines OWA operator and grey incidence analysis to obtain a novel and effective method for group decision making. It is suitable for group decision-making problems in which the attribute weights are completely unknown, expert weights are completely unknown.

Details

Grey Systems: Theory and Application, vol. 5 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2043-9377

Keywords

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Article

Weiyi Chen, Xinmei Liu and Xiaojie Zhang

The authors investigate when and why a subordinate's expressive suppression facilitates workplace creativity, building on the conservation of resources theory and…

Abstract

Purpose

The authors investigate when and why a subordinate's expressive suppression facilitates workplace creativity, building on the conservation of resources theory and considering the effect of the supervisor's expressive suppression and time pressure as boundary conditions.

Design/methodology/approach

Multisource data were collected from 132 teams in northwestern China, including 132 supervisors and 648 subordinates. Hierarchical regression analyses were used to test the effects.

Findings

The subordinate’s expressive suppression was positively related to their workplace creativity. Challenge time pressure was positively related to workplace creativity, and the subordinate’s expressive suppression was positively related to workplace creativity when challenge time pressure was lower and the supervisor's expressive suppression was higher. Hindrance time pressure was negatively related to workplace creativity, and a positive relationship between a subordinate's expressive suppression and workplace creativity was also found with less hindrance time pressure and greater expressive suppression by their supervisor.

Originality/value

By examining the role of the supervisor as a source of downward spillovers in various time pressure contexts, the study explains why a subordinate’s suppression facilitates workplace creativity from the conservation of resources perspective.

Details

Management Decision, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0025-1747

Keywords

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Article

Gülçin Büyüközkan and Ali Görener

Today, customers are generally perceived to be demanding higher quality and better performing products, in shorter and more predictable development cycle-times and at a…

Abstract

Purpose

Today, customers are generally perceived to be demanding higher quality and better performing products, in shorter and more predictable development cycle-times and at a lower cost. These market pressures drive firms to collaborate with possible partners in product development (PD) processes. However, the selection of a suitable partner for an effective PD is not an easy decision and is associated with complexity. The purpose of this paper is to propose an integrated multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach to effectively evaluate PD partners.

Design/methodology/approach

The proposed evaluation procedure consists of several steps. First, based on a literature review and expert validation, the strategic main and sub-criteria of the PD partner selection process that companies consider the most important are identified. After constructing the evaluation criteria hierarchy, the criteria weights are calculated by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. The VIKOR (a compromise ranking) method is used to obtain the final partner ranking results. A case study is given to demonstrate the potential of the methodology. In the last part of the study, a sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the influence of criteria weights on the decision making process.

Findings

The PD partner evaluation model contains three main criteria, namely, partner, collaboration and PD-oriented criteria, with 13 sub-criteria. The market position, competency of the partner, compatibility, technical expertise and complementarity are found as the most considerable evaluation criteria for the ABC case company. Results of the sensitivity analysis from different cases demonstrate that the integrated AHP-VIKOR model is quite sensitive to the weights assigned to the evaluation criteria. This finding underlines the importance of forming a capable, qualified group of experts for the decision-making procedure. The results of the empirical study show that the proposed evaluation framework is practical for solving partner selection problems.

Originality/value

Partner selection is critical to the success of a collaborative PD process. The main contribution of this paper is the definition and development of an effective evaluation framework to guide managers for suitable PD partner selection. In our knowledge, there exists no study in the literature that combines the established AHP VIKOR model for PD partner selection problem. This study can be useful to researchers to better understand PD partner selection problem theoretically, as well as to organizations in designing better satisfying PD partner evaluation systems.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. 44 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

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Article

Mert Gürlek and Murat Çemberci

Drawing on knowledge-based theory, contingency theory of leadership, social learning theory and resource-based view, this study aims to investigate the relationships among…

Abstract

Purpose

Drawing on knowledge-based theory, contingency theory of leadership, social learning theory and resource-based view, this study aims to investigate the relationships among knowledge-oriented leadership (KOL), knowledge management capacity (KMC), innovation performance (IP) and organizational performance (OP).

Design/methodology/approach

The relationships were examined using the serial mediation model of Hayes (2013). Data were collected from the firms (N = 502) operating in technology development zones in Turkey. The sample size corresponds to 10% of total number of the firms. Within the scope of a policy called National Technology Move by public authority, Turkey has been making strong investments to produce original and advanced technology products. A significant portion of these investments is directed toward technology development zones. Therefore, research on this topic may be of interest in Turkey. It should also be noted that Turkey is a developing country and is one of the world’s 20 largest economies.

Findings

The findings show that KMC and IP serially mediate the effect of KOL on OP. In the light of the findings, KOL establishes the eligible conditions for the improvement of KMC. Enhanced KMC transforms into innovation, and as a result, OP increases. As a result, this research shows that Turkish firms under the leadership of knowledge-oriented leaders have high KMC, innovation performance and firm performance. These findings can serve as a valuable benchmark for future studies in developing countries.

Research limitations/implications

The current research has several limitations. It was carried out on the firms operating in technology development zones in Turkey. Future researches can be conducted on the firms outside the technology development zones. Second, this research was carried out in Turkey. The study was conducted in a specific national context covering only Turkish firms. It is recommended that readers be cautious when generalizing the results to different contexts (e.g. other countries and industries). Future researches can be conducted on the firms located in technology development zones in different countries. This may allow the comparison of countries. Turkey is a developing country. For this reason, developing countries should be taken into consideration in the comparison between countries, not developed countries such as the USA and European countries. Third, this is a cross-sectional study. Therefore, it does not reveal the changes in research variables over time. Longitudinal data collection is recommended for future researches.

Practical implications

The research findings are turned into a slogan and the firms are recommended the following perspective: more innovation for strong performance; a strong KMC for innovation; and for all, a strong knowledge-oriented leadership.

Originality/value

KOL is a quite new research field. The current study makes a significant contribution to the literature by revealing the fact that KOL is effective in increasing OP. In addition, testing via the serial mediation model the relationships which put forward how KOL increases OP, this study sheds light on organizational outcomes of KOL. There is an important gap in the search for leadership characteristics that allow knowledge-intensive firms to improve their KMC, innovation and firm performance. Therefore, this research is an important step toward filling this gap.

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