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This paper aims to formalize long-term trajectories of human civilization as a scientific and ethical field of study. The long-term trajectory of human civilization can be defined as the path that human civilization takes during the entire future time period in which human civilization could continue to exist.

This paper focuses on four types of trajectories: status quo trajectories, in which human civilization persists in a state broadly similar to its current state into the distant future; catastrophe trajectories, in which one or more events cause significant harm to human civilization; technological transformation trajectories, in which radical technological breakthroughs put human civilization on a fundamentally different course; and astronomical trajectories, in which human civilization expands beyond its home planet and into the accessible portions of the cosmos.

Status quo trajectories appear unlikely to persist into the distant future, especially in light of long-term astronomical processes. Several catastrophe, technological transformation and astronomical trajectories appear possible.

Some current actions may be able to affect the long-term trajectory. Whether these actions should be pursued depends on a mix of empirical and ethical factors. For some ethical frameworks, these actions may be especially important to pursue.

The great filter and an unfriendly artificial general intelligence might pose existential risks to humanity, but these two risks are anti-correlated. The purpose of this paper is to consider the implications of having evidence that mankind is at significant peril from both these risks.

This paper creates Bayesian models under which one might get evidence for being at risk for two perils when we know that we are at risk for at most one of these perils.

Humanity should possibly be more optimistic about its long-term survival if we have convincing evidence for believing that both these risks are real than if we have such evidence for thinking that only one of these perils would likely strike us.

Deriving implications of being greatly concerned about both an unfriendly artificial general intelligence and the great filter.

December 6, 1971 Master and servant — Negligence — Noise — Deafness — Workman subjected to loud noise at work — Ear plugs providing inadequate protection — Ear muffs not supplied — No encouragement or persuasion to wear ear muffs — Whether negligence — Further loss of hearing resulting from continued negligence after statute‐barred period — Whether full damages recoverable.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the contextual factors contributing to the sustainability of healthcare quality improvement (QI) initiatives.

Themes from semi-structured interviews with international healthcare leaders are compared with Kaplan and Provost et al.’s (2012) model for understanding success in quality (MUSIQ). Critical success factors within these themes are shown in detail.

The interviews provide a rich source of information on critical success factors. The themes largely correspond with MUSIQ, reinforcing its robustness. An important factor emerging from the interviews was the importance of engagement with patients and families in QI, and this needs consideration in seeking to understand context in QI.

Interview participants represent a limited set of western countries and health systems. Their experiences may not hold true in other settings.

The detail on critical success factors provides QI practitioners with guidance on designing and implementing sustainable initiatives.

Including consideration of contextual factors for engagement with patients and families in frameworks for context in QI appears to be an original idea that will add value to such frameworks. Researchers in patient engagement are starting to address contextual factors and connections should be made with this work.

The following bibliography focuses mainly on programs which can run on IBM microcomputers and compatibles under the operating system PC DOS/MS DOS, and which can be used in online information and documentation work. They fall into the following categories:

A monthly feature giving news of recent Government and professional appointments, industrial developments and business changes, etc. Three changes among the executives of Armstrong Siddeley Motors Limited of Coventry, Warwickshire, are announced by the Hawker Siddeley Group of 18 St. James's Square, S.W.I.

Armstrong, Whitworth Aircraft, Ltd., Coventry.—Aircraft, Reconditioning of: Supermarine Aviation Works (Vickers), Ltd., Woolston. Aircraft, Spares: Blackburn Aeroplane & Motor Co., Ltd., Brough; Westland Aircraft Works, Yeovil.—Bitumen: Asiatic Petroleum Co., Ltd., London, E.C.—Blocks, Terminal: Oliver Pell Control, Ltd., London, S.E.—Brushes: C. H. Leng & Sons, Birmingham.—Camera Spares: Thornton Pickard Manufacturing Co., Ltd., Altrincham.—Canvas Duck: Jas. Stott, Ltd., Oldham.—Coats, Great: L. Silberston & Sons, London, E.—Cylinders: Walter Kidde Co., Ltd., Hanwell.—Dopes and Identification Colours: Nobel Chemical Finishes, Ltd., Slough.—Engines, Aero, Reconditioning and Spares: Bristol Aeroplane Co., Ltd., Filton.—Engines, Aero, Spares, Repair of: D. Napier & Son, Ltd., London, W.—Engines, Aero, Spares: Rolls‐Royce, Ltd., Derby.—Glycerine: D. Thorn & Co., Ltd., Pendleton.—Landplane: De Havilland Aircraft Co., Ltd., Edgware.—Lay‐out of Moorings and Mark Buoys: Thos. Round & Sons, Scarborough.—Limousines, Humber, Pullman: Rootes, Ltd., Coventry.—Locomotive, Diesel: F. C. Hibbard & Co., Ltd., London, N.W.—Magnetos: British Thomson‐Houston Co., Ltd., Coventry; Rotax, Ltd., London, N.W.—Mahogany: M. A. Morris, London, N.—Nippers: Wynn Timmins & Co., Ltd., Birmingham.—Pantaloons: L. Silberston & Sons, London, E.—Plugs and Sockets: Vickers (Aviation), Ltd., Weybridge.—Pumps, Fuelling: Zwicky, Ltd., Slough.—Thermometers, Radiator: Negretti & Zambra, London, E.C —Transmitters: Standard Telephones and Cables, Ltd., London, N.W.—Trays for Racks: Hobbies, Ltd., Dereham.—Valves W/T: Edison Swan Electric Co.,Ltd., London, W.C.—Waistcoats, Life Saving: Robinson & Cleaver, Ltd., London, W.

Virgin Atlantic Cargo is one of the largest air freight operators in the world. As part of a wider strategic development initiative, the company has identified forecasting accuracy as of strategic importance to its operational efficiency. This is because accurate forecast enables the company to have the right resources available at the right place and time. The purpose of this paper is to undertake an evaluation of current month-to-date forecasting utilized by Virgin Atlantic Cargo. The study employed demand patterns drawn from historical data on chargeable weight over a seven-year-period covering six of the company's routes.

A case study is carried out, where a comparison between forecasting models is undertaken using error accuracy measures. Data in the form of historical chargeable weight over a seven-year-period covering six of the company's most profitable routes are employed in the study. For propriety and privacy reasons, data provided by the company have been sanitized.

Preliminary analysis of the time series shows that the air cargo chargeable weight could be difficult to forecast due to demand fluctuations which appear extremely sensitive to external market and economic factors.

The study contributes to existing literature on air cargo forecasting and is therefore of interest to scholars examining the problems of overbooking. Overbooking which is employed by air cargo operators to hedge against “no-show” bookings. However, the inability of air cargo operators to accurately predict cargo capacity unlikely to be used implies that operators are unable to establish with an aspect of certainty their revenue streams. The research methodology adopted is also predominantly discursive in that it employs a synthesis of existing forecasting literature and real-life data for accuracy analysis.

This paper examines the literature relating to tribalism and considers its existence and its relevance to the marketing of sport. Tribal marketing is not a feature of the philosophy dominating today's sports marketing programmes. It is suggested, however, that more focus be placed on the interactions and relationships of groups of sports spectators as tribal members, and this paper presents factors that should be considered by the sports marketer to encourage and facilitate tribalism.