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Do state governments have the ability to predict the onset, duration, and depth of structural fiscal crisis? The State of Indiana had a particularly difficult time recovering from the recession that began in April 2001. Painful expenditure restraint and substantive revenue increases were necessary simply to “break even” from 2002 through 2006. Could early warning signs have permitted more timely actions to avert the subsequent pain? Using monthly cash receipts and balances, we test whether these data hold predictive value in forecasting the onset and severity of fiscal imbalance. The evidence strongly suggests that the structural character of the 2001-02 deficit and its subsequent depth was discernible in the cash receipts stream early enough to take ameliorating action. That the state did not do so reflects budgetary psychology more than the deficit’s predictability.

Do state governments have the ability to predict the onset, duration, and depth of structural fiscal crisis? The State of Indiana had a particularly difficult time recovering from the recession that began in April 2001. Painful expenditure restraint and substantive revenue increases were necessary simply to "break even" from 2002 through 2006. Could early warning signs have permitted more timely actions to avert the subsequent pain? Using monthly cash receipts and balances, we test whether these data hold predictive value in forecasting the onset and severity of fiscal imbalance. The evidence strongly suggests that the structural character of the 2001-02 deficit and its subsequent depth was discernible in the cash receipts stream early enough to take ameliorating action. That the state did not do so reflects budgetary psychology more than the deficit’s predictability.

Focusing on a 24-year period, specifically, 1980–2004, this chapter provides a historical and theoretical perspective on gender and educational administration in the United States. Drawing from extant literature on women in educational administration and on social theory, our analysis indicates that certain structural features of the public education system, namely the sorting rules for selection, retention, and promotion have critical consequences for all participants, especially for women. In order to identify the state of research on women in educational administration during this era, we discuss these concepts in relation to Shakeshaft’s “paradigm shift” model, which helps highlight where future researchers might add to the conversation. Based on our findings, we contend that future research on women administrators must move toward challenging and transforming extant leadership theories by incorporating women’s experiences.

The purpose of this paper is to introduce the idea of cultural humility, distinguish it from cultural competence and explore how it fits within librarianship.

The authors use an interdisciplinary exploration of the concept of humility to understand what cultural humility means and how it differs from cultural competence and other approaches to intercultural communication in libraries.

Despite some reservations with the term itself, the authors find that a practice of cultural humility is more appropriate to front-line interactions in library contexts than cultural competence models.

Libraries looking to address issues in intercultural communication and services to multicultural populations will find an approach that may be better suited to their contexts than prevailing models of cultural competency.

Librarians need to commit to redressing the power imbalances and other structural issues that interfere with library service, for the benefit of the patrons, the library and librarians themselves.

While cultural humility is increasingly being used in librarianship, there has not been a systematic exploration of the concept and how it applies to library contexts.

The purpose of this study is to reveal the magnitude of empty container movements (ECM) arising from cargo seasonality by means of long-term datasets of Turkish terminals. Trade imbalance is one of the well-known major reasons of ECM. Cargo seasonality apart from some other operational drivers and market effect, i.e. commercial decisions of the ship operators, is the major operational driver in Turkish terminals effecting ECM. Furthermore, this study highlights the significance of market effect, leading to take measures for more effective empty container operations in terms of decision makers leading the ship operators.

Time series analysis of full container datasets was performed through X-13ARIMA-SEATS methodology, implementing seasonal adjustment.

The results indicate that 17 of 112 time series in hand, based on a terminal/hinterland, container type and “in and out” foreign trade, exhibit cargo seasonality. Roughly, the amount of ECM originating from cargo seasonality in Turkish terminals represents 10 per cent of total ECM except trade imbalance in those terminals where seasonality is present. This reveals that ECM arising from market effect should not be underestimated.

Reefer container traffic could not be sorted from the datasets.

This paper focuses on one of the major reasons of ECM, cargo seasonality. It brings a novel point of view and interpretations which were not suggested previously about ECM, motivating to overcome inefficiency in container operations.

To describe the Pragathi Bandhu Groups (PBG) Model and portray the performance of PBG farmers encouraged by their financial and decision-making participation in micro financing and labor sharing, as well as to analyze the factors that influenced participation of small farmers in PBG.

The empirical study is confined to the small farmers and laborers of PBG functioning in the coastal districts of Karnataka State in India. The study is conducted in Belthangady and Bantwal Taluks of Dakshina Kannada (DK) Districts-Udupi taluk of Udupi District in the State of Karnataka. Primary data from 100 farmer members, selected at random in each of the Taluks, is collected through personal interview by administering semi-structured interview schedules and open discussion. In addition, the data on the functions and the performance of PBG in the State of Karnataka in India are also collected from the official records of Shri Kshetra Dharmasthala Rural Development Project (SKDRDP) and their field-level functionaries through informal discussions. Factor analysis is performed with principal component analysis followed by Varimax rotation to analyze the factors that influenced participation of small farmers in PBG.

Results show that the implementation of PBG Model, through the collective participation of small farmers in micro financing, free labor sharing, financial and decision-making activities underlying the functions of PBG Model, has helped them to achieve robust performance in terms of increased savings mobilization, loan utilization, and value of free labor sharing and acres of land brought under cultivation with the help of irrigation facilities created by them. The factor analysis has derived four factors that influenced the participation of farmers in PBG (agriculture development, financial participation, capacity building, and other benefits) which explain 63.701 of total factor variance.

The findings of this paper can benefit the small farmers and laborers in replicating the PBG Model and its initiatives that address shortages of labor and credit, as well as the high cost of labor, particularly in the unorganized sector in the agrarian economy.

The insights offered are likely to be beneficial to the distressed small farmers, development agencies, and agriculture policy makers to solve the agrarian crisis caused due to shortages of labor and farm credit.

The purpose of this paper is to propose and demonstrate criteria for omnibearing imbalance of macroeconomic system structure (regions, industries, urban and rural areas, departments, ownership, etc.) and their strategic optimization, for structural optimization of the global regional macroeconomic system, providing universal application of the formula for calculating, and quantitative basis.

Relevant statistical data will compare receipts (GBC) model calculation to quantitatively determine structural imbalance and the formation of structural optimization and direction and intensity of the strategic program.

Contemporary system science believes that all things take the form of systems, and that the output function depends on the internal structure of systems. Therefore, the system structure must be judged by the output benefit. Although the output benefit of a society's macroeconomic system is enslaved to the system's external environment (the peripheral environment, international economy, or even global economy), the state of the system's internal structure directly determines its output benefit. In reverse, the output benefit of the macroeconomic system is also the reference to evaluate its internal structure.

Research on the macroeconomic system structural imbalances and optimization with universal applicability.

The paper is of great significance with regard to the theory, methodology, and practice for structural optimization of the global regional macroeconomic system.

In the context of debate on competitive devaluation and trade imbalances, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of exchange rate misalignment as a determinant of trade imbalances in selected major trade surplus (Germany, China, Japan, Russia and KSA) and major trade deficit countries (USA, UK, France, India and Turkey).

The authors used a structural vector auto-regressive model on data from ten countries with the highest trade deficit and surplus. The period of analysis is from 2000 Q1 to 2016 Q1.

The key findings suggest that although exchange rate misalignment from equilibrium may have some implications for the current account balance for surplus and deficit countries, the effects observed were rather very mild and transitory. There was a heterogeneity in the response of the current account position to exchange rate misalignment in each country, concomitantly; the exchange rate misalignment shall not be seen as the sole responsible factor in the debate on global trade imbalances.

The research has profound implications in terms of exploring the notion of competitive devaluation and exchange rate misalignment as a cause of major global trade imbalances.

This study has important practical implications for the trade policy of major economies in the world. These are twofold. First, this study has analysed and reported on the degree of misalignment of exchange from its equilibrium values in the major trade surplus and deficit countries. Second, it has investigated the implications of any misalignment for the trade balance or respective economies.

There are important social implications as the notion of competitive devaluation and exchange rate–trade balance nexus has been heavily politicised. This study provides an empirical insight and an answer to these claims which have social and political implications.

There is a significant element of originality and contribution to the existing body of knowledge on the subject. In the context of debate on competitive devaluation this is the first study which has investigated whether the exchange rate has been misaligned from its equilibrium values (competitive devaluation) and whether there is some nexus between the real exchange rate misalignment and trade imbalances in under-analysis economies.

Deepening supply-side structural reform is the main objective of the economic work since the Chinese economy entered a new stage of development. By adopting the fundamental principles and methodologies of Marxist political economy, the authors can provide clarifications on the three basic theoretical issues concerning the supply-side structural reform. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

First, the essential starting point for understanding the supply-side structural reform is the primacy of production, as well as the organic connection between production and consumption in social reproduction, rather than the supply and demand as superficially seen in exchanges. By identifying the right starting point, the authors can avoid alternating between demand and supply management, and between liberalism and interventionism.

Structural problems, which are closely related to the institutional structure of production and the purpose and nature of production, cannot be solely attributed to the imbalance caused by market failures. Chinese economy has suffered prolonged structural contradictions and structural problems.

To decide whether the financial and the real estate sectors are real economy or virtual economy, the key is to examine whether the monetary capital used in financial activities and real estate commodity (capital) go through the capital circulation process of from monetary capital to productive capital and further to commodity capital, and whether the capital gain is generated by the value appreciation of capital or the value transfer and distribution as a result of the transfer of ownership. With its emphasis on developing the real economy, the supply-side structural reform should foster both development of manufacturing, and parts of financial and real estate sectors that are the real economy.