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1 – 10 of 309Wassim Ben Ayed and Rim Ben Hassen
This research aims to evaluate the accuracy of several Value-at-Risk (VaR) approaches for determining the Minimum Capital Requirement (MCR) for Islamic stock markets during the…
Abstract
Purpose
This research aims to evaluate the accuracy of several Value-at-Risk (VaR) approaches for determining the Minimum Capital Requirement (MCR) for Islamic stock markets during the pandemic health crisis.
Design/methodology/approach
This research evaluates the performance of numerous VaR models for computing the MCR for market risk in compliance with the Basel II and Basel II.5 guidelines for ten Islamic indices. Five models were applied—namely the RiskMetrics, Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, denoted (GARCH), fractional integrated GARCH, denoted (FIGARCH), and SPLINE-GARCH approaches—under three innovations (normal (N), Student (St) and skewed-Student (Sk-t) and the extreme value theory (EVT).
Findings
The main findings of this empirical study reveal that (1) extreme value theory performs better for most indices during the market crisis and (2) VaR models under a normal distribution provide quite poor performance than models with fat-tailed innovations in terms of risk estimation.
Research limitations/implications
Since the world is now undergoing the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, this study will not be able to assess performance of VaR models during the fourth wave of COVID-19.
Practical implications
The results suggest that the Islamic Financial Services Board (IFSB) should enhance market discipline mechanisms, while central banks and national authorities should harmonize their regulatory frameworks in line with Basel/IFSB reform agenda.
Originality/value
Previous studies focused on evaluating market risk models using non-Islamic indexes. However, this research uses the Islamic indexes to analyze the VaR forecasting models. Besides, they tested the accuracy of VaR models based on traditional GARCH models, whereas the authors introduce the Spline GARCH developed by Engle and Rangel (2008). Finally, most studies have focus on the period of 2007–2008 financial crisis, while the authors investigate the issue of market risk quantification for several Islamic market equity during the sanitary crisis of COVID-19.
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Oumayma Gharbi, Yousra Trichilli and Mouna Boujelbéne
The main objective of this paper is to analyze the dynamic volatility spillovers between the investor's behavioral biases, the macroeconomic instability factors and the value at…
Abstract
Purpose
The main objective of this paper is to analyze the dynamic volatility spillovers between the investor's behavioral biases, the macroeconomic instability factors and the value at risk of the US Fintech stock market before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors used the methodologies proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) and the wavelet approach.
Findings
The wavelet coherence results show that during the COVID-19 period, there was a strong co-movement among value at risk and each selected variables in the medium-run and the long-run scales. Diebold and Yilmaz's (2012) method proved that the total connectedness index raised significantly during the COVID-19 period. Moreover, the overconfidence bias and the financial stress index are the net transmitters, while the value at risk and herding behavior variables are the net receivers.
Research limitations/implications
This study offers some important implications for investors and policymakers to explain the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the risk of Fintech industry.
Practical implications
The study findings might be useful for investors to better understand the time–frequency connectedness and the volatility spillover effects in the context of COVID-19 pandemic. Future research may deal with investors' ability of constructing portfolios with another alternative index like cryptocurrencies which seems to be a safer investment.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first study that relies on the continuous wavelet decomposition technique and spillover volatility to examine the connectedness between investor behavioral biases, uncertainty factors, and Value at Risk of US Fintech stock markets, while taking into account the recent COVID-19 pandemic.
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The increased capital requirements and the implementation of new liquidity standards under Basel III sparked various concerns among researchers, academics and other stakeholders…
Abstract
Purpose
The increased capital requirements and the implementation of new liquidity standards under Basel III sparked various concerns among researchers, academics and other stakeholders. The question is whether Basel III regulation is ideal, that is, adequate to deal with a crisis, such as the 2007–2009 global financial crisis? The purpose of this paper is threefold: First, perform a stress testing exercise on the US banking sector, while examining liquidity and solvency risk indicators jointly under the Basel III regulatory framework. Second, allow the study to cover the post-crisis period, while referring to key Basel III regulatory requirements. And third, focus on the resilience of domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), which are supposed to support the US financial system in times of stress and therefore whose failure causes the entire financial system to fail.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors used a sample of the 24 largest US banks observed over the period Q1-2015 to Q1-2021 and a scenario-based vector autoregressive conditional forecasting approach.
Findings
The authors found that the model successfully produces accurate forecasts and simulates the responses of the solvency and liquidity indicators to different real and historical macroeconomic shocks. The authors also found that the US banking sector is resilient and can withstand both historical and hypothetical macroeconomic shocks because of its compliance with the Basel III capital and liquidity regulations, which consist of encouraging banks to hold high-quality liquid assets and stable funding resources and to strengthen their capital, which absorbs the losses incurred in a crisis.
Originality/value
The authors developed a framework for testing the resilience of the US banking sector under macroeconomic shocks, while examining liquidity and solvency risk indicators jointly under Basel III regulatory framework, a point not yet well studied elsewhere, and most studies on this subject are based on precrisis data. The authors also focused on the resilience of D-SIBs, whose failure causes the failure of the entire financial system, which previous studies have failed to examine.
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Jamel Chouaibi, Hayet Benmansour, Hanen Ben Fatma and Rim Zouari-Hadiji
This study aims to investigate the effects of environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance on financial risk disclosure of European companies. It analyzed the…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to investigate the effects of environmental, social and governance (ESG) performance on financial risk disclosure of European companies. It analyzed the relationships between ESG factors and financial risk disclosure between 2010 and 2020.
Design/methodology/approach
To test their hypotheses in this study, the authors used the multivariate regression analysis on panel data using the Thomson Reuters ASSET4 database and the annual reports of 154 European companies listed in the ESG index between 2010 and 2020.
Findings
Empirical evidence shows a positive association between European companies' environmental and governance performance with financial risk disclosure, whereas social performance does not influence financial risk disclosure. Concerning the control variables, the findings demonstrate that firm size and profitability are significant factors in changing the financial risk disclosure. Nevertheless, firms’ leverage is insignificantly correlated with financial risk disclosure.
Originality/value
This study extends the stream of accounting literature by focusing on the financial risk disclosure, a topic that has received little attention in previous research. Furthermore, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is one of the first that provides ESG companies with evidence of the effect of ESG factors on financial risk disclosure in a developed market like Europe.
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The crude oil market plays a key role in addressing the issue of energy economics. This paper aims to detect the causality relationship between the crude oil market and economy…
Abstract
Purpose
The crude oil market plays a key role in addressing the issue of energy economics. This paper aims to detect the causality relationship between the crude oil market and economy based on the financial system.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper used the static and dynamic Hatemi-J Bootstrap Toda–Yamamoto and Diebold–Yilmaz connectedness index. The Hatemi-J Bootstrap Toda-Yamamoto approach allows researchers to use nonstationary data and that method is robust to nonnormal distribution and heteroscedasticity. The Diebold–Yilmaz connectedness index model provides researchers to detect the power of connectedness besides linkage direction. The analyzed period is the span from January 3, 2005 to October 3, 2022.
Findings
The results show bidirectional causality in the full sample but unidirectional causality before and after the 2008 financial crisis. During the 2008 financial crisis period and the COVID-19 period, there was a bidirectional and unidirectional causality, respectively. The connectedness approach indicates that the crude oil market affects financial stress through investors’ risk preferences.
Research limitations/implications
The Diebold–Yilmaz spillover index model is based on vector autoregression methods with a stationarity precondition. However, some of the five dimensions that constitute the financial stress index (FSI) are nonstationary in level. Therefore, the authors takes the first difference of the nonstationary data.
Practical implications
The linkage between the crude oil market and the FSI provides useful information for investors and policymakers. For instance, this paper indicates that an investor wanted to forecast future value of the crude oil (financial stress) should consider the current and past values of financial stress (crude oil). Moreover, policymaker should consider the crude oil market (FSI) to make a policy proposal for financial system (crude oil market).
Originality/value
Recently, indicators of economic activity levels (economic policy uncertainty, implied volatility index) have begun to be considered to analyze the relationship between energy and the economy but very little is known in the literature about the leading and lagging roles of data in subsample periods and the linkage channel. The other originality of this research is using the new econometric approaches.
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Salvatore Capasso, Oreste Napolitano and Ana Laura Viveros Jiménez
The idea of this study is to provide a solid Financial Condition Index (FCI) that allows the monetary transmission policy to be monitored in a country which in recent decades has…
Abstract
Purpose
The idea of this study is to provide a solid Financial Condition Index (FCI) that allows the monetary transmission policy to be monitored in a country which in recent decades has suffered from major financial and monetary crises.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors construct three FCIs for Mexico to analyse the role of financial asset prices in formulating monetary policy under an inflation-targeting regime. Using monthly data from 1995 to 2017, the authors estimate FCIs with two different methodologies and build the index by taking into account the mechanism of transmission of monetary policy and incorporating the most relevant financial variables.
Findings
This study’s results show that, likewise for developing countries as Mexico, an FCI could be a useful tool for managing monetary policy in reducing macroeconomic fluctuations.
Originality/value
Apart from building a predictor of possible financial stress, the authors construct an FCI for a central bank that pursues inflation targeting and to analyse the role of financial asset prices in formulating monetary policy.
Highlights
We construct three FCIs for Mexico to analyse the role of financial asset prices in formulating monetary policy under an inflation-targeting regime.
The FCIs are based on (1) a vector autoregression model (VAR); (2) an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and (3) a factor-augmented vector autoregression model (FAVAR).
FCI could become a new target for monetary policy within a hybrid inflation-targeting framework.
FCI could be a good tool for managing monetary policy in developing countries with a low-inflation environment.
We construct three FCIs for Mexico to analyse the role of financial asset prices in formulating monetary policy under an inflation-targeting regime.
The FCIs are based on (1) a vector autoregression model (VAR); (2) an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and (3) a factor-augmented vector autoregression model (FAVAR).
FCI could become a new target for monetary policy within a hybrid inflation-targeting framework.
FCI could be a good tool for managing monetary policy in developing countries with a low-inflation environment.
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Edmond Berisha, David Gabauer, Rangan Gupta and Jacobus Nel
Existing empirical evidence suggests that episodes of financial stress (crises) can act as driver of growth of inequality. Consequently, in this study, the authors explore the…
Abstract
Purpose
Existing empirical evidence suggests that episodes of financial stress (crises) can act as driver of growth of inequality. Consequently, in this study, the authors explore the time-varying predictive power of an index of financial stress for growth in income (and consumption) inequality in the UK. The authors focus on the UK since income (and consumption) inequality data are available at a high frequency, i.e. on a quarterly basis for over 40 years (June, 1975 to March, 2016).
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use Wang and Rossi's approach to analyze the time-varying impact of financial stress on inequality. Hence, the method provides a more appropriate inference of the effect rather than a constant parameter Granger causality method. Besides, understandably, the time-varying approach helps to depict the time-variation in the strength of predictability of financial stress on inequality.
Findings
This study’s findings point that financial distress correspond to subsequent increases in inequality, with the index of financial stress containing important information in predicting growth in income inequality for both in and out-of-sample periods. Interestingly, the strength of the in-sample predictive power is high post the period of the global financial crisis, as was observed in the early part of the sample. The authors believe these findings highlight an important role of financial stress for inequality – an area of investigation that has in general remained untouched.
Originality/value
Accurate prediction of inequality at a higher frequency should be more relevant to policymakers in designing appropriate policies to circumvent the wide-ranging negative impacts of inequality, compared to when predictions are only available at the lower annual frequency.
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Hedi Ben Haddad, Sohale Altamimi, Imed Mezghani and Imed Medhioub
This study seeks to build a financial uncertainty index for Saudi Arabia. This index serves as a leading indicator of Saudi economic activity and helps to describe economic…
Abstract
Purpose
This study seeks to build a financial uncertainty index for Saudi Arabia. This index serves as a leading indicator of Saudi economic activity and helps to describe economic fluctuations and forecast economic trends.
Design/methodology/approach
This study adopts an extension of the Jurado et al. (2015) procedure by combining financial uncertainty factors with their net spillover effects on GDP and inflation to construct an aggregate financial uncertainty index. The authors consider 13 monthly financial variables for Saudi Arabia from January 2010 to June 2021.
Findings
The empirical results show that the constructed financial uncertainty estimates are good leading indicators of economic activity. The robustness analysis suggests that the authors’ proposed financial uncertainty estimators outperform the alternative estimates used by other existing approaches to estimate the financial conditions index.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt at constructing a financial uncertainty index for Saudi Arabia. This study extends the empirical literature, from which the authors propose a novel conceptual framework for building a financial uncertainty index by combining the approach of Jurado et al. (2015) and the time-varying connectedness network approach proposed by Antonakakis et al. (2020)
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Abhishek Poddar, Sangita Choudhary, Aviral Kumar Tiwari and Arun Kumar Misra
The current study aims to analyze the linkage among bank competition, liquidity and loan price in an interconnected bank network system.
Abstract
Purpose
The current study aims to analyze the linkage among bank competition, liquidity and loan price in an interconnected bank network system.
Design/methodology/approach
The study employs the Lerner index to estimate bank power; Granger non-causality for estimating competition, liquidity and loan price network structure; principal component for developing competition network index, liquidity network index and price network index; and panel VAR and LASSO-VAR for analyzing the dynamics of interactive network effect. Current work considers 33 Indian banks, and the duration of the study is from 2010 to 2020.
Findings
Network structures are concentrated during the economic upcycle and dispersed during the economic downcycle. A significant interaction among bank competition, liquidity and loan price networks exists in the Indian banking system.
Practical implications
The study meaningfully contributes to the existing literature by adding new insights concerning the interrelationship between bank competition, loan price and bank liquidity networks. While enhancing competition in the banking system, the regulator should also pay attention toward making liquidity provisions. The interactive network framework provides direction to the regulator to formulate appropriate policies for managing competition and liquidity while ensuring the solvency and stability of the banking system.
Originality/value
The study contributes to the limited literature concerning interactive relationship among bank competition, liquidity and loan price in the Indian banks.
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Pejman Shabani and Mohsen Akbarpour Shirazi
This paper aims to evaluate commercial bank branches' performance in dynamic and competitive conditions where decision-making units (DMUs) seek a greater proportion of shared…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to evaluate commercial bank branches' performance in dynamic and competitive conditions where decision-making units (DMUs) seek a greater proportion of shared resources as it happens in the real world. By introducing the concepts of cross-shared and serial-shared resources, the authors have emphasized the role of evaluation results of past periods on branches' total efficiency.
Design/methodology/approach
In this study, a new mixed-integer data envelopment analysis (MI-DEA) model has been proposed to evaluate the performance of a dynamic network in the presence of cross-shared and serial-shared resources.
Findings
The proposed model helps bank managers to find the source of inefficiencies and establish a connection between the results of the periodic performance of the DMUs and the distribution of serial and cross-shared resources. The results show that the weighting coefficients of the periods do not significantly affect the overall efficiency of commercial bank branches, unlike desirable and undesirable intermediates.
Originality/value
This paper presents the following factors: (1) A new mixed-integer network data envelopment analysis model is developed under dynamic competitive conditions. (2) For the first time in DEA models, the concept of cross-shared resources is proposed to consider shared resources between DMUs. (3) All controllable, uncontrollable, desirable and undesirable outputs in the model are considered with the possibility to transfer to the next periods. (4) A case study is given for the performance evaluation of 38 branches of an Iranian commercial bank from 2016 to 2020.
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