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Article
Publication date: 28 February 2023

Tze Huey Tam, Muhammad Zulkarnain Abdul Rahman, Sobri Harun, Shamsuddin Shahid, Sophal Try, Mohamad Hidayat Jamal, Zamri Ismail, Khamarrul Azahari Razak, Mohd Khairolden Ghani and Yusrin Faiz Abdul Wahab

The present study aims to evaluate the effect of climate change on the flood hazard potential in the Kelantan River Basin using current and future scenarios.

Abstract

Purpose

The present study aims to evaluate the effect of climate change on the flood hazard potential in the Kelantan River Basin using current and future scenarios.

Design/methodology/approach

The intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) was used to estimate the current 50- and 100-year return period 24-h design rainfall, and the climate change factor (CCF) was used to compute the future design rainfall. The CCF was calculated from the rainfall projections of two global climate models, CGCM1 and CCSM3, with different pre-processing steps applied to each. The IDF data were used in the rainfall-runoff-inundation model to simulate current and future flood inundation scenarios.

Findings

The estimated CCF values demonstrate a contrast, whereby each station had a CCF value greater than one for CGCM1, while some stations had a CCF value of less than one for CCSM3. Therefore, CGCM1 projected an aggravation and CCSM3 a reduction of flood hazard for future scenarios. The study reveals that topography plays an essential role in calculating the CCF.

Originality/value

To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the first study to examine flood projections in the Kelantan River Basin. It is, therefore, hoped that these results could benefit local managers and authorities by enabling them to make informed decisions regarding flood risk mitigation in a climate change scenario.

Details

International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1759-5908

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 27 March 2024

Yan Zhou and Chuanxu Wang

Disruptions at ports may destroy the planned ship schedules profoundly, which is an imperative operation problem that shipping companies need to overcome. This paper attempts to…

Abstract

Purpose

Disruptions at ports may destroy the planned ship schedules profoundly, which is an imperative operation problem that shipping companies need to overcome. This paper attempts to help shipping companies cope with port disruptions through recovery scheduling.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper studies the ship coping strategies for the port disruptions caused by severe weather. A novel mixed-integer nonlinear programming model is proposed to solve the ship schedule recovery problem (SSRP). A distributionally robust mean conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) optimization model was constructed to handle the SSRP with port disruption uncertainties, for which we derive tractable counterparts under the polyhedral ambiguity sets.

Findings

The results show that the size of ambiguity set, confidence level and risk-aversion parameter can significantly affect the optimal values, decision-makers should choose a reasonable parameter combination. Besides, sailing speed adjustment and handling rate adjustment are effective strategies in SSRP but may not be sufficient to recover the schedule; therefore, port skipping and swapping are necessary when multiple or longer disruptions occur at ports.

Originality/value

Since the port disruption is difficult to forecast, we attempt to take the uncertainties into account to achieve more meaningful results. To the best of our knowledge, there is barely a research study focusing on the uncertain port disruptions in the SSRP. Moreover, this is the first paper that applies distributionally robust optimization (DRO) to deal with uncertain port disruptions through the equivalent counterpart of DRO with polyhedral ambiguity set, in which a robust mean-CVaR optimization formulation is adopted as the objective function for a trade-off between the expected total costs and the risk.

Details

Kybernetes, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0368-492X

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 18 September 2023

Temitope Egbelakin, Temitope Omotayo, Olabode Emmanuel Ogunmakinde and Damilola Ekundayo

Flood preparedness and response from the perspective of community engagement mechanisms have been studied in scholarly articles. However, the differences in flood mitigation may…

Abstract

Purpose

Flood preparedness and response from the perspective of community engagement mechanisms have been studied in scholarly articles. However, the differences in flood mitigation may expose social and behavioural challenges to learn from. This study aimed to demonstrate how text mining can be applied in prioritising existing contexts in community-based and government flood mitigation and management strategies.

Design/methodology/approach

This investigation mined the semantics researchers ascribed to flood disasters and community responses from 2001 to 2022 peer-reviewed publications. Text mining was used to derive frequently used terms from over 15 publications in the Scopus database and Google Scholar search engine after an initial output of 268 peer-reviewed publications. The text-mining process applied the topic modelling analyses on the 15 publications using the R studio application.

Findings

Topic modelling applied through text mining clustered four (4) themes. The themes that emerged from the topic modelling process were building adaptation to flooding, climate change and resilient communities, urban infrastructure and community preparedness and research output for flood risk and community response. The themes were supported with geographical flood risk and community mitigation contexts from the USA, India and Nigeria to provide a broader perspective.

Originality/value

This study exposed the deficiency of “communication, teamwork, responsibility and lessons” as focal themes of flood disaster management and response research. The divergence in flood mitigation in developing nations as compared with developed nations can be bridged through improved government policies, technologies and community engagement.

Details

International Journal of Building Pathology and Adaptation, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2398-4708

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 February 2024

Magdalena Saldana-Perez, Giovanni Guzmán, Carolina Palma-Preciado, Amadeo Argüelles-Cruz and Marco Moreno-Ibarra

Climate change is a problem that concerns all of us. Despite the information produced by organizations such as the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices and the…

Abstract

Purpose

Climate change is a problem that concerns all of us. Despite the information produced by organizations such as the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices and the United Nations, only a few cities have been planned taking into account the climate changes indices. This paper aims to study climatic variations, how climate conditions might change in the future and how these changes will affect the activities and living conditions in cities, specifically focusing on Mexico city.

Design/methodology/approach

In this approach, two distinct machine learning regression models, k-Nearest Neighbors and Support Vector Regression, were used to predict variations in climate change indices within select urban areas of Mexico city. The calculated indices are based on maximum, minimum and average temperature data collected from the National Water Commission in Mexico and the Scientific Research Center of Ensenada. The methodology involves pre-processing temperature data to create a training data set for regression algorithms. It then computes predictions for each temperature parameter and ultimately assesses the performance of these algorithms based on precision metrics scores.

Findings

This paper combines a geospatial perspective with computational tools and machine learning algorithms. Among the two regression algorithms used, it was observed that k-Nearest Neighbors produced superior results, achieving an R2 score of 0.99, in contrast to Support Vector Regression, which yielded an R2 score of 0.74.

Originality/value

The full potential of machine learning algorithms has not been fully harnessed for predicting climate indices. This paper also identifies the strengths and weaknesses of each algorithm and how the generated estimations can then be considered in the decision-making process.

Details

Transforming Government: People, Process and Policy, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6166

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 4 March 2022

Modeste Meliho, Abdellatif Khattabi, Zejli Driss and Collins Ashianga Orlando

The purpose of the paper is to predict mapping of areas vulnerable to flooding in the Ourika watershed in the High Atlas of Morocco with the aim of providing a useful tool capable…

1448

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the paper is to predict mapping of areas vulnerable to flooding in the Ourika watershed in the High Atlas of Morocco with the aim of providing a useful tool capable of helping in the mitigation and management of floods in the associated region, as well as Morocco as a whole.

Design/methodology/approach

Four machine learning (ML) algorithms including k-nearest neighbors (KNN), artificial neural network, random forest (RF) and x-gradient boost (XGB) are adopted for modeling. Additionally, 16 predictors divided into categorical and numerical variables are used as inputs for modeling.

Findings

The results showed that RF and XGB were the best performing algorithms, with AUC scores of 99.1 and 99.2%, respectively. Conversely, KNN had the lowest predictive power, scoring 94.4%. Overall, the algorithms predicted that over 60% of the watershed was in the very low flood risk class, while the high flood risk class accounted for less than 15% of the area.

Originality/value

There are limited, if not non-existent studies on modeling using AI tools including ML in the region in predictive modeling of flooding, making this study intriguing.

Details

Applied Computing and Informatics, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2634-1964

Keywords

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