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This study aims to explore how to overcome and address the loss of exploratory innovation, thereby achieving greater success in exploratory innovation. This phenomenon of loss occurs when enterprises decrease their investment in and engagement with exploratory innovation, ultimately leading to an insufficient amount of such innovation efforts. Drawing on dynamic capabilities, this study investigates the relationship between organizational foresight and exploratory innovation and examines the moderating role of breakthrough orientation/financial orientation.

This study used survey data collected from 296 Chinese high-tech companies in multiple industries and sectors.

The evidence produced by this study reveals that three elements of organizational foresight (i.e. environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and integrating capabilities) positively influence exploratory innovation. Furthermore, this positive effect is strengthened in the context of a high-breakthrough orientation. Moreover, the relationships among environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and exploratory innovation become weaker as an enterprise’s financial orientation increases, whereas a strong financial orientation does not affect the relationship between integrating capabilities and exploratory innovation.

Ambidexterity is key to successful enterprise innovation. Compared with exploitative innovation, it is by no means easy to engage in exploratory innovation, which is especially important in high-tech companies. While the loss of exploratory innovation has been observed, few empirical studies have explored ways to promote exploratory innovation more effectively. A key research implication of this study pertains to the role of organizational foresight in the improvement of exploratory innovation in the context of high-tech companies.

This paper contributes to the broader literature on exploratory innovation and organizational foresight and provides practical guidance for high-tech companies regarding ways of avoiding the loss of exploratory innovation and becoming more successful at exploratory innovation.

This systematic literature review investigates the contribution of design thinking (DT) as a process and tool to drive innovation in a sustainable built environment (SBE) and develops a new model for sustainability research integrating DT and future thinking approaches toward achieving a unified DT and foresight notion for future research and applications.

This review was based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statement. Open-access English articles published between 2000 and 2022 identified using the EBSCOhost, Emerald Insight, DOJA, JSTOR, Scopus and Taylor and Francis database searches were reviewed. The review framework deploys a previously proposed modified Ansoff matrix with an integrated innovation matrix to identify and analyze the challenges and opportunities for innovation growth in SBE. Additionally, a citation analysis was conducted to explore the impact of DT for innovation in SBE, and a proposed framework based on design by drawing on foresight theory was developed.

Research on DT for innovation in SBE faces the challenge of unanticipated impacts. According to the average number of citations per document, innovation associated with new solutions within a new context seems to become highly influential. Additionally, research gaps exist in the integration of foresight and DT into sustainability research to identify new contexts and solutions to SBE. A model of foresight design thinking (FDT) is proposed to guide future research and support the practical application of DT in sustainability.

This analysis was limited by the selection criteria as only certain keywords were used and English-only articles were selected. Future research should consider the use of DT for innovation in SBE using various important keywords, which would improve research findings and expand the contribution of DT to SBE.

The FDT model offers a new holistic framework for the iterative process of reframing and reperception, focusing on divergent and convergent thinking with the goal of contributing to SBE practices.

The integrated framework of DT and foresight can contribute to the study and development of sustainable innovation and a strategic shift toward a sustainable society.

The integration of DT, foresight and sustainability can broaden the horizons of sustainability research by systematically addressing future challenges related to SBE, which can be translated into feasible and innovative solutions. Thus, the FDT model complements the application of DT in sustainable innovation in this research field.

The purpose of this study is to propose an innovative and efficient process in urban policy-making that combines a divergent and creative method with a convergent and strategic one. At the same time, the purpose is also to propose a useful innovation to enforce the usability of both methods. On the one hand, mission-oriented policies run the risk of being overly focused on the present and of not being able to develop preparedness in organization. On the other hand, scenario development has the reverse problem it often does not point out how to use scenario narratives to inform and devise short-term strategic actions.

The paper proposes an innovative methodological approach, the mission-oriented scenarios, which hybridizes Mazzucato's mission-oriented public policy framework with Jim Dator's Manoa school four futures method. The proposed methodological innovation emerges from a urban foresight academic-led project carried out in the context of the Metropolitan City of Turin, Italy, where a first application of the mission-oriented scenarios was tested on six different focal issues (from reindustrialization to cultural policies) and the scenario narratives were used as sources for the grounding of 12 missions and 48 strategic actions towards 2030.

Mission-oriented scenarios can contribute to the generation of more sustainable and inclusive urban public policies. This methodological proposal is based on an original mix of knowledge exchange procedures borrowed from methodological approaches with different backgrounds: the mission-oriented and the archetypal scenarios. Their conjunction could support the formulation of ambitious yet pragmatic policies, giving a plurality of actors the opportunity to act and establish fruitful and lasting partnerships.

The paper reconstructs one of the first urban foresight projects carried out in a major Italian city by two prestigious universities and exposes a methodological innovation resulting from reflection on the strengths and weaknesses of the project, which opens the door to the development of a new scenario technique.

Although the significance of technological progress in economic development is well-established in theory and policy, it has remained challenging to agree upon shared priorities for strategies and policies. This paper aims to develop a model of how policymakers can develop effective and easy to communicate strategies for science, technology and economic development.

By integrating insights from economic complexity, competitiveness and foresight literature, a replicable research framework for analysing the opportunities and challenges of technological revolutions for small catching-up countries is developed. The authors highlight key lessons from piloting this framework for informing the strategy and policies for bioeconomy in Estonia towards 2030–2050.

The integration of economic complexity research with traditional foresight methods establishes a solid analytical basis for a data-driven analysis of the opportunities for industrial upgrading. The increase in the importance of regional alliances in the global economy calls for further advancement of the analytical toolbox. Integration of complexity, global value chains and export potential assessment approaches offers valuable direction for further research, as it enables discussion of the opportunities of moving towards more knowledge-intensive economic activities along with the opportunities for winning international market share.

The research merges insights from the economic complexity, competitiveness and foresight literature in a novel way and illustrates the applicability and priority-setting in a real-life setting.

The purpose of this study is to create a methodological approach for identifying priority areas for science and technology (S&T) development and its empirical application within the city of Moscow. This research uncovers a wide range of multicultural and multidisciplinary global trends that will affect the development of major cities in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including the inherent complexity of urban contexts, demographic and socioeconomic trends, as well as scientific and ecological factors.

The methodological approach is based on classic foresight instruments. Its novelty lays in the blending of qualitative and quantitative methods specially selected as the most appropriate for the identification of S&T areas in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including horizon scanning, bibliometric analysis, expert surveys and the construction of composite indexes with respect to the scope and resources of the research and the selected object for empirical application – Moscow, which is one of the world’s largest megacities. The analysis was performed for the period of 2009–2018 and expert procedures took place in 2019.

As a result, 25 global trends were identified, evaluated and discussed over the course of an expert survey and subsequent expert events. Ten priority areas of S&T development were determined, including 62 technological sub-areas within them and the most important market niches for all identified technological sub-areas, which could be useful for the world’s megacities. The results of this study are illustrated using the construction sector. Based on the conducted research and results, a list of recommendations on S&T policy measures and instruments were suggested, including the creation of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which by the end of 2023 contained more than 6,000 projects and initiatives, selected using the findings of this investigation.

This research contributes to the existing literature and research agenda of setting priorities for S&T development and shows how it can be done for a megacity. The blended foresight methodology that was created within the study satisfies the criteria of scientific originality, is repeatable for any interested researcher, is applicable to any other city in the world and demonstrates its high efficiency in empirical application. It could be used for creating new agenda items in S&T policy, setting S&T priorities for a megacity and integrating the results into decision-making processes. This study provides recommendations on the further implementation of the designed methodology and results into a policymaking system. Moreover, the example of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which was created based on the results of our research, demonstrates these recommendations’ practical significance in real life, which is quite valuable. The limitation of this study is that it is not devoted to urban planning issues directly or the promotion of R&D areas; it is about setting promising S&T priorities in an era of complexity and uncertainty for megacities.

Foresight J's journey started in 1999, and in 2022, it marked the conclusion of its 24 years of publication. This paper aims to provide an overall overview of important research trends published in Foresight J between 1999 and 2022 by conducting a quantitative analysis of the journal’s literature. The overarching goal is to provide valuable insights into the dynamics of scholarly communication, aiding researchers, institutions and policymakers in assessing the significance and influence of academic work, guiding future research directions and academic evaluation.

The two bibliometrics methodologies that make up the methodology of this article are scientific mapping and performance analysis. Authors have explained the development and composition of the Foresight J using these methods. The SCOPUS database is being used in current research to analyse several dimensions, such as the evolution of publications by year, the most cited papers, core authors and researchers, leading countries and prolific institutions. Moreover, the conceptual structure, scope, burst detection and co-occurrence analysis of the journal are mapped using network visualization software such as VOSviewer, CiteSpace and RStudio.

With a strong track record of output over the years, Foresight J has continued to develop in terms of publications. It is determined that “Saritas” is the author with the greatest overall impact. However, according to SCOPUS bibliometric data, “Blackman” and “Richardson” are the authors with the greatest relevance in terms of the quantity of articles. In addition, it becomes apparent that the USA, Australia and the UK are very productive nations in terms of publications. The most popular fields of the journal have always been forecasting, foresight, scenario planning, strategic planning, decision-making, technology and sustainable development. These are also the author keywords that appear the most frequently. In contrast, new study themes in the Foresight J include digital technologies, innovation, sustainability, blockchain, artificial intelligence and sustainability.

Several noteworthy research implications are provided by the bibliometric study of Foresight J. “Saritas” is the author with the most overall impact, indicating that the precise contributions and influence of this researcher in the fields of forecasting, foresight and related fields. Given that “Blackman” and “Richardson” are well-known writers, it is also critical to examine the scope and complexity of their contributions to potentially identify recurring themes or patterns in their writing. The geographic productivity results, which show that the USA, Australia and the UK are the top three countries for Foresight J publications, may encourage more research into regional differences, patterns of collaboration and the worldwide distribution of research endeavours in the context of forecasting and foresight. Popular fields including scenario planning, forecasting, foresight and sustainable development are consistent, indicating persistent research interests. Examining the causes of these subjects’ ongoing relevance can reveal information about the consistency and development of scholarly interests over time.

Foresight J’s bibliometric analysis has real-world applications for many stakeholders. It helps editors and publishers make strategic decisions about outreach and content by providing insights regarding the journal’s influence. Assessing organizational and author productivity helps institutions allocate resources more effectively. Policymakers acquire an instrument to evaluate research patterns and distribute funds efficiently. In general, bibliometric study of a journal helps decisionmakers in academic publishing make well-informed choices that maximize the potential of options for authors, editors, institutions and policymakers.

The societal ramifications of bibliometrically analysing Foresight J from 1999 and 2022 are substantial. This analysis highlights, over the past 24 years, research trends, technological developments and societal priorities have changed by methodically looking through the journal’s articles. Gaining knowledge about the academic environment covered by the journal can help raise public awareness of important topics and promote critical thinking. In addition, the analysis can support evidence-based decision-making by alerting decision makers to the influential research that was published in Foresight J. This could have an impact on the course of policies pertaining to innovation, technology and societal development.

This study presents a first comprehensive article that provides a general overview of the main trends and patterns of the research over the Foresight J’s history since its inception. Also, the paper will help the scientific community to know the value and impact of Foresight J.

Due to e-commerce growth, technological advancements and environmental concerns, developing a more nuanced service portfolio has become a critical issue for last-mile logistics service providers. Concurrently, consumers are adopting new modes of consumption. This paper aims to investigate the potential for last-mile logistics service providers to act as intermediaries in access-based consumption and to revitalise their service offerings through product-service systems – a pioneering strategy not executed in the market yet.

This strategic customer foresight study uses a quantitative survey of 1,000 respondents and an online focus group comprising 10 early adopter consumers to investigate emerging last-mile service models. Potential service concepts were identified through the survey, and two distinct concepts were subsequently selected for evaluation and co-development within the focus group. The research was conducted in partnership with an SME logistics company in Finland.

The consumers expressed selective interest in access-based consumption related to the proposed offering of essential household goods. Young adults and consumers in early middle age living in the city centre emerged as the most potential user groups. Economic reasons and short-term needs were the primary motivations for adopting access-based consumption.

The study showed that engaging consumers in a customer foresight process is viable for SMEs innovating their offerings and demonstrates how the process works in practice.

Documented cases of customer integration into foresight processes are rare in earlier research, and this paper extends the knowledge base through a multidisciplinary examination of future consumer behaviour in the last-mile logistics domain. The paper also expands the limited literature on the role of logistics in access-based consumption.

The prevention of mental health issues at work represents a significant challenge for organizations. The transformation of workplaces whose future promises to be virtual or hybrid can make the anticipation and prevention of these health issues more challenging, considering the potential distance that it may create between employees and their employers. The recent health crisis undermined individual mental health but also highlighted the importance of new technologies which greatly paved the way for the future of workplaces. This paper aims to examine these new technologies, specifically the use of blockchain technologies in organizations to predict and prevent mental health issues at work, specifically psychological distress, in times of crisis, and beyond. It addresses the main challenges and opportunities and presents research avenues as well as insights for human resource management (HRM) practitioners.

This paper is a viewpoint that addresses the use of blockchain technology in the prevention of employees’ mental health at work in times of crisis and beyond. Literature was used to support this viewpoint and highlight the importance of addressing mental health issues at work and preventing their occurrence in the future.

Blockchain is one of the disruptive new technologies that can be used as a strategic tool for organizations to prevent mental health issues among employees in the workplace in times of crisis, and beyond. It facilitates the collaboration between employees, their organization, healthcare and employee assistance program (EPA) providers, as well as insurance companies. In this context, a specific type of blockchain should be used to support this type of collaboration.

Blockchain can generate both opportunities and challenges for the prevention of mental issues at work. It can transform the future of workplaces and help organizations as well as healthcare and EPA providers to anticipate potential employees’ mental health issues in 2019. Organizations need to address their readiness to implement this new technology and the possible reluctance of their employees to use it. This paper presents insights for managers and HRM practitioners.

The studies that have addressed the use of blockchain in organizations to prevent employees’ mental health issues are sparse. This paper is an attempt to address this gap and examine the challenges as well as the opportunities associated with the use of this disruptive new technology that can significantly reshape the future of workplaces.

This study examines the relationship between multi-layer supply chain flexibility (MSCF) and Supply chain resilience (SCR). Further, it looks at the moderating effect of environmental dynamism (ED) and supply chain risks (SCRI) on the relationship between MSCF and SCR.

Executives from the pharmaceutical, agri-food, electronics, automobile and textile industries were invited to complete a self-administered questionnaire. We received feedback from a total of 302 participants. Prior to conducting the primary analysis, we addressed the potential for nonresponse bias and verified the assumptions of homoscedasticity and normal distribution of the data. The reliability and validity of the constructs were established through confirmatory factor analysis. Structural equation modelling is employed for the purpose of conducting hypothesis testing.

The results demonstrate a notable influence of MSCF on SCR, particularly in settings characterized by high levels of ED and SCRI. The study highlights the importance of flexibility in multiple aspects of the supply chain to build resilience against a range of disruptions and uncertainties.

The study presents the fundamental role of Multi-Layer Flexibility in building up SCR. The results of this study reinforce the existing literature and offers empirical evidence for how ED, SCRI moderates the influence between MSCF to SCR. These results offer valuable information to both supply chain specialists and researchers for building comprehensive strategy to bring resilience in supply chains.

This study aims to investigate the role of interpersonal influence on consumer purchase decisions regarding foreign products, specifically by exploring consumers’ social reaction styles (acquisitive and protective) when confronted with normative pressures and their subsequent impact on consumers’ purchase behavior in the context of situational animosity.

Three studies were conducted in China to empirically examine the proposed research model. The US–China Chip War of 2022 was used as the research context for situational animosity, while the Japan–China relationship representing a stable animosity condition was used for contrast.

This study establishes the mediating role of perceived normative pressure in linking animosity attitudes to purchase avoidance in situational animosity. It also validates that consumers’ social reaction styles (acquisitive and protective) help predict distinct behavioral outcomes, holding significant implications for advancing research in the field of product and brand consumption.

This research provides a novel perspective by exploring consumers’ social reaction styles when dealing with normative pressure in situational animosity. The distinction between acquisitive and protective reaction styles adds depth and originality to the study. Moreover, this study examines consumer behavior in two distinct consumption contexts: switching intentions to local products and purchase intentions for products from offending countries in hidden consumption situations. This dual perspective offers a comprehensive exploration of consumers’ purchase behavior under normative pressure, contributing to the novelty of this research.