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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 April 2024

Qingmei Tan, Muhammad Haroon Rasheed and Muhammad Shahid Rasheed

Despite its devastating nature, the COVID-19 pandemic has also catalyzed a substantial surge in the adoption and integration of technological tools within economies, exerting a…

Abstract

Purpose

Despite its devastating nature, the COVID-19 pandemic has also catalyzed a substantial surge in the adoption and integration of technological tools within economies, exerting a profound influence on the dissemination of information among participants in stock markets. Consequently, this present study delves into the ramifications of post-pandemic dynamics on stock market behavior. It also examines the relationship between investors' sentiments, underlying behavioral drivers and their collective impact on global stock markets.

Design/methodology/approach

Drawing upon data spanning from 2012 to 2023 and encompassing major world indices classified by Morgan Stanley Capital International’s (MSCI) market and regional taxonomy, this study employs a threshold regression model. This model effectively distinguishes the thresholds within these influential factors. To evaluate the statistical significance of variances across these thresholds, a Wald coefficient analysis was applied.

Findings

The empirical results highlighted the substantive role that investors' sentiments and behavioral determinants play in shaping the predictability of returns on a global scale. However, their influence on developed economies and the continents of America appears comparatively lower compared with the Asia–Pacific markets. Similarly, the regions characterized by a more pronounced influence of behavioral factors seem to reduce their reliance on these factors in the post-pandemic landscape and vice versa. Interestingly, the post COVID-19 technological advancements also appear to exert a lesser impact on developed nations.

Originality/value

This study pioneers the investigation of these contextual dissimilarities, thereby charting new avenues for subsequent research studies. These insights shed valuable light on the contextualized nexus between technology, societal dynamics, behavioral biases and their collective impact on stock markets. Furthermore, the study's revelations offer a unique vantage point for addressing market inefficiencies by pinpointing the pivotal factors driving such behavioral patterns.

Details

China Accounting and Finance Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1029-807X

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 21 February 2024

Mostafa Saidur Rahim Khan

This study delves into the nuanced implications of short-sale constraints on stock prices within the context of stock market efficiency. While existing research has explored this…

Abstract

Purpose

This study delves into the nuanced implications of short-sale constraints on stock prices within the context of stock market efficiency. While existing research has explored this relationship, inconsistencies persist in their findings. The purpose of this study is to conduct a comprehensive review of literature to elucidate the reasons behind these disparities.

Design/methodology/approach

A systematic review of existing theoretical and empirical studies was conducted following the PRISMA method. The analysis centered on discerning the factors contributing to the divergence in projected stock prices due to these constraints. Key areas explored included assumptions related to expectations homogeneity, revisions, information uncertainty, trading motivations and fluctuations in supply and demand of risky assets.

Findings

The review uncovered multifaceted reasons for the disparities in findings regarding the influence of short-sale constraints on stock prices. Variations in assumptions related to market expectations, coupled with fluctuations in perceived information uncertainty and trading motivations, were identified as pivotal factors contributing to differing projections. Empirical evidence disparities stemmed from the use of proxies for short-sale constraints, varied sample periods, market structure nuances, regulatory changes and the presence of option trading.

Originality/value

This study emphasizes the significance of not oversimplifying the impact of short-sale constraints on stock prices. It highlights the need to understand these effects within the broader context of market structure and methodological considerations. By delineating the intricate interplay of factors affecting stock prices under short-sale constraints, this review provides a nuanced perspective, contributing to a more comprehensive understanding in the field.

Details

Journal of Capital Markets Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2514-4774

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 29 March 2024

Fazıl Gökgöz and Canan Seyhan

Investors who can transfer their savings to investments in a well-regulated market benefit not only themselves but also economic development. Hence, it is crucial for fund owners…

Abstract

Purpose

Investors who can transfer their savings to investments in a well-regulated market benefit not only themselves but also economic development. Hence, it is crucial for fund owners to evaluate their stock market investment decisions. The goal of the study is to understand which model determines the asset returns most efficiently. In this regard, the validity of single and multi-index asset pricing models (capital asset pricing model-CAPM and Fama–French models) has been examined in the Turkish Stock Exchange for 2009–2020, with the quantile regression (QR) approach.

Design/methodology/approach

On 18 portfolios comprised of quoted stocks in the Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 (ISE-100/BIST-100), we test the CAPM, the Fama and French three factor model (FF3) and the Fama and French five factor model (FF5). Empirical analyses have been carried out via QR approach regressing the portfolios' average weekly excess returns on risk premium/market factor (Rm-Rf), firm size, book value/market value (B/M), profitability and investments factors. QR estimation has been employed since QR is more effective and provides a better definition of the distribution’s tails.

Findings

Our empirical findings have revealed that the average excess weekly returns can be explained more strongly via CAPM. Moreover, Fama and French models are expected to give more reliable result with more data, whereas the market premium would give robust results for the Turkish Capital Market.

Practical implications

Individuals investing in financial assets must find the price model that best fits the market. The return can be approximated in the most appropriate manner using the right variables.

Originality/value

The study differs from other research by comparing the asset pricing models via examining the assets' weekly returns with QR in the Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 (ISE-100).

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 4 April 2024

Thomas C. Chiang

Using a GED-GARCH model to estimate monthly data from January 1990 to February 2022, we test whether gold acts as a hedge or safe haven asset in 10 countries. With a downturn of…

Abstract

Using a GED-GARCH model to estimate monthly data from January 1990 to February 2022, we test whether gold acts as a hedge or safe haven asset in 10 countries. With a downturn of the stock market, gold can be viewed as a hedge and safe haven asset in the G7 countries. In the case of inflation, gold acts as a hedge and safe haven asset in the United States, United Kingdom, Canada, China, and Indonesia. For currency depreciation, oil price shock, economic policy uncertainty, and US volatility spillover, evidence finds that gold acts as a hedge and safe haven for all countries.

Details

Advances in Pacific Basin Business, Economics and Finance
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83753-865-2

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 March 2024

Donia Aloui and Abderrazek Ben Maatoug

Over the last few years, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted unconventional monetary policies. These measures aim to boost economic growth and increase inflation through…

Abstract

Purpose

Over the last few years, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted unconventional monetary policies. These measures aim to boost economic growth and increase inflation through the bond market. The purpose of this paper is to study the impact of the ECB’s quantitative easing (QE) on the investor’s behavior in the stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

First, the authors theoretically identify the transmission channels of the QE shocks to the stock market. Then, the authors empirically assess the financial market’s responses to QE shocks in a data-rich environment using a factor augmented VAR (FAVAR).

Findings

The results show that the ECB’s unconventional monetary policy positively affects the stock market. A QE shock leads to an increase in stock prices and a drop in the realized volatility and the implied risk premium. The authors also suggest that the ECB’s QE is transmitted to the stock market through five main channels: the liquidity, the expectation, the portfolio reallocation, the interest rates and the risk premium channels.

Practical implications

The findings help to better understand the behavior of stock market assets in a data-rich economic context and guide investors and policymakers in the presence of unconventional monetary tools. For instance, decision-makers and investors should consider the short-term effect of the QE interventions and the changing behavior of the financial actors over time. In addition, high stock market returns can increase risk appetite. This can lead investors to underestimate the market risk. Decision-makers and market participants should take into consideration the impact of the large injection of money through the QE, which may raise the risk of a speculative bubble in the financial market.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that incorporates a theoretical and empirical analysis to explore QE transmission to the stock market in the European context. Unlike previous studies, the authors use the shadow rate proposed by Wu and Xia (2017) to quantify the effect of the ECB’s QE in a data-rich environment. The authors also include two key risk indicators – the stock market risk premium and the realized volatility – to capture investors’ behavior in the stock market following QE shocks.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 July 2023

Xuebing Yang and Huilan Zhang

The purpose of this paper is to study the US stock market and try to explain why short-term contrarian profits have largely disappeared in the past two decades.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the US stock market and try to explain why short-term contrarian profits have largely disappeared in the past two decades.

Design/methodology/approach

In this work, the authors decompose the short-term contrarian profits into cross-sectional variations, firm-level overreactions and lead-lag effects to study the changes in their shares. Then, the authors study the behavior of the subgroups in the winner and loser subportfolios of contrarian investment strategies.

Findings

The authors find that short-term contrarian profits have largely vanished since 2000. Changes in the shares of the three components of contrarian profits, which are cross-sectional variations, firm-level overreactions and lead-lag effects, are not the main reason for the disappearance of contrarian profits in the past two decades. Instead, the disappearance of short-term contrarian profits is primarily due to the heterogeneous evolution of subgroups in the portfolio, which leads to a decrease in the overall level of overreactions that drive the contrarian profit.

Originality/value

The work explains the disappearance of short-term contrarian profits in the US stock market.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 41 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 February 2024

James Dean and Joshua C. Hall

The challenge of predicting changes in aggregate income and stock prices is one that has occupied the research agendas of economists. This paper aims to use the consumption–income…

Abstract

Purpose

The challenge of predicting changes in aggregate income and stock prices is one that has occupied the research agendas of economists. This paper aims to use the consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio to predict future income and stock prices.

Design/methodology/approach

To examine the stability of the consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio, the authors run a two-variable, two-lag reduced-form VAR in the vein of Cochrane (1994), using a lag of each respective ratio as exogenous to the VAR. Additionally, the authors estimate an AR(4) model for income and prices.

Findings

The consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio remain key to understanding future movements in income and stock prices. The consumption–income ratio significantly predicts future income in the USA, and aggregate income is easier to predict than consumption in the VAR model. The dividend–price ratio does not significantly predict future price growth. Consumption and dividend shocks have lasting impacts on income and prices.

Originality/value

The consumption–income ratio and the dividend–price ratio are still key to understanding future movements in income and stock prices. The consumption–income ratio significantly predicts future income in the USA, and aggregate income is easier to predict than consumption in the VAR model. However, the dividend–price ratio does not significantly predict future price growth, a change from previous research from the 1990s, despite the increasing complexity of stock markets. Consumption and dividend shocks have lasting impacts on income and prices and appear to be significant drivers in both the short- and long-run variance in income and prices.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 April 2024

Priyanka Goyal and Pooja Soni

Given the dearth of thorough summaries in the literature, this systematic review and bibliometric analysis attempt to take a meticulous approach meant to present knowledge on the…

Abstract

Purpose

Given the dearth of thorough summaries in the literature, this systematic review and bibliometric analysis attempt to take a meticulous approach meant to present knowledge on the constantly developing subject of stock market volatility during crises. In outline, this study aims to map the extant literature available on stock market volatility during crisis periods.

Design/methodology/approach

The present study reviews 1,283 journal articles from the Scopus database published between 1994 and 2022, using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) 2020 flow diagram. Bibliometric analysis through software like R studio and VOSviewer has been performed, that is, annual publication trend analysis, journal analysis, citation analysis, author influence analysis, analysis of affiliations, analysis of countries and regions, keyword analysis, thematic mapping, co-occurrence analysis, bibliographic coupling, co-citation analysis, Bradford’s law and Lotka’s law, to map the existing literature and identify the gaps.

Findings

The literature on the effects of crises on volatility in financial markets has grown in recent years. It was discovered that volatility intensified during crises. This increased volatility can be linked to COVID-19 and the global financial crisis of 2008, as both had massive effects on the world economy. Moreover, we identify specific patterns and factors contributing to increased volatility, providing valuable insights for further research and decision-making.

Research limitations/implications

The present study is confined to the areas of economics, econometrics and finance, business, management and accounting and social sciences. Future studies could be conducted considering a broader perspective.

Originality/value

Most of the available literature has focused on the impact of some particular crises on the volatility of financial markets. The present study is not limited to some specific crises, and the suggested research directions will serve as a guide for future research.

Details

Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1755-4179

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 21 July 2022

Mohammed Bajaher and Fekri Ali Shawtari

This study aims to examine the influence of stock liquidity on the trade credit of publicly listed companies in Saudi Arabia.

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the influence of stock liquidity on the trade credit of publicly listed companies in Saudi Arabia.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study various econometric models were used to test the data of 900 firms listed in Saudi Arabia during the period of 2010–2019.

Findings

The robust results of the various econometric models indicate that firms are more willing to offer trade credit to customers when stock liquidity is greater; however, they are less likely to rely on obtaining more payables from suppliers. The findings further indicate that payables and receivables are indeed related, but not exclusively, in the sense that more payables lead to more receivables. The study also reveals a pattern of persistence in payables and receivables during the period of study.

Research limitations/implications

The sample of the present study is only made up of Saudi listed companies. Future research could extend the sample of this study taking into account listed firms in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region as a whole so as to gain more insights from the entire region including oil-producing and non–oil-producing countries. More studies are needed to further examine the impact of alternative options for credit access and their linkage to stock liquidity. Finally the difference in difference (DiD) method of analysis as quasi experimental method can be another extension of this research.

Practical implications

The findings would provide implications for managers and investors by recognizing the potential role of stock liquidity in affecting trade credit and understanding the association between the stock liquidity and trade credit. Management of the firms should look for the ways to enhance the stock liquidity of the firms so as to help in reducing the extreme debts usage and therefore, alternative source of funds can be available accordingly. Once the advantage of stock market is identified, firms' managers should search for chances and policies that can promote stock liquidity and hence make use of the advantages of being liquid.

Originality/value

This paper provides new evidence from the emerging market, particularly the Saudi Arabia. The attempt is one of the first in the region to broaden the knowledge about the effects of stock liquidity on trade credit. It provides market participants with insights on the role of stock liquidity in financial flexibility.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 19 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 July 2023

Nhan Huynh, Dat Thanh Nguyen and Quang Thien Tran

This study explores the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis on herding behaviour in the Australian equity market by considering liquidity, government interventions and…

Abstract

Purpose

This study explores the economic impact of the COVID-19 crisis on herding behaviour in the Australian equity market by considering liquidity, government interventions and sentiment contagion.

Design/methodology/approach

This study utilizes a daily dataset of the top 500 stocks in the Australian market from January 2009 to December 2021. Both predictive regression and portfolio approaches are employed to consider the impact of COVID-19 on herding intention.

Findings

This study confirms that herding propensity is more pronounced at the beginning of the crisis and becomes less significant towards later phases when reverse herding is more visible. Investors herd more toward sectors with less available information on financial support from the government during the financial meltdown. Conditioning the stock liquidity, herding is only detectable during highly liquid periods and high-liquid stocks, which is more observable during the initial phases of the crisis. Further, the mood contagion from the United States (US) market to Australian market and asymmetric herding intention are evident during the pandemic.

Originality/value

This is the first study to shed further light on the impact of a health crisis on the trading behaviour of Australian investors, which is driven by liquidity, public information and sentiment. Notwithstanding the theoretical contributions to the prior literature, several practical implications are proposed for businesses, policymakers and investors during uncertainty periods.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 50 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

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