Search results

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of forecast earnings’ revision on the evolution of securities prices in the Tunisian stock market.

A portfolio study of investor reaction and stock prices following revisions is first conducted to highlight the existence of abnormal return related to analysts’ earnings revisions. Analysis is then supplemented by a second empirical investigation based on the panel data to quantify the effect of revision on the abnormal profitability of securities.

The evidence found in this paper validates the fundamental theoretical hypothesis according to which the psychological bias resulting from the effect of the forecast earnings revision is related to the abnormal profitability of the securities. The authors conclude the importance of the revision impact on investors’ behavior on one hand, and the informational content of the analysts’ forecasts and the biases which they lead on the other hand.

Globally, the empirical illustrations largely validate the findings of behavioral models particularly that of Kormendi and Lippe (1987), Cornell and Letsman (1989), Beaver et al. (2008) which states that investors under psychological bias, react to the effect of forecast earnings revision by an abnormal variation in stock prices.

This study aims to document the influence of information content and the informativeness of analyst reports towards cumulative abnormal return in the Malaysian market.

Samples of analyst reports for the period 4th January 2010 until 24th December 2015 were collected from the Bursa Malaysia’s repository system for daily basis information. The study uses market-adjusted method for the calculation of cumulative abnormal return and panel regression to test the research objective. In addition, diagnostic tests, which include the variance inflation factor (VIF), correlation analysis, heteroscedasticity tests, serial auto-correlation and the Hausman test, were also performed to ensure the validity and reliability of the data.

Result from the unbalanced panel data reveals that not all information contained in the analyst reports is able to detect stock returns movement. Only five variables are shown to have a strong association with the returns, and these are target price, earnings forecast, return on equity, cash flows to price and sales to price ratio. The R-square value has also been shown to be relatively low (0.79 per cent), indicating the low predictive power of information content and the informativeness of the analyst report in explaining stock returns. To support the findings based on the knowledge obtained, a descriptive analysis on whether the analyst reports were able to predict the recommendation accurately was performed. Result from the descriptive analysis shows that only 57 per cent of the recommendations are accurate, evidenced by the differing target price and ending price. This outcome appears to contradict the theory of signalling hypothesis. Hence, it can be concluded that analyst reports have less informational role among investors.

This paper has, thus, provided insight into how information disclosed in the analyst report influence the return of stocks, further extending the limited research on analyst report in the context of the Malaysian markets. The paper has also added to the existing literature by providing several implications to practitioners and researchers alike.

This paper aims to investigate the value of information content and informativeness of the analyst report for Sharīʿah-compliant shares in Malaysia.

The authors use a sample of 657 daily published analyst reports on Sharīʿah-compliant shares from 2010 to 2015, which were downloaded from Bursa Malaysia’s repository system. The method was quantitative in nature and panel regression analysis was used. Diagnostics tests including the variance inflation factor, correlation analysis, heteroskedasticity test, serial auto-correlation and the Hausman test were performed to ensure validity and reliability of data. The significance of the variables indicated whether the analyst reports contained valuable information on Shariah compliancy.

Results obtained from the FEM-Robust model revealed that the R² value was equivalent to 0.79 per cent, suggesting that the power of return explained by the information content and informativeness was less for Sharīʿah-compliant shares. The F-statistics were statistically significant for all models, postulating that the data used were reliable and fit for the purpose of analysis. The findings showed that the information content of target price and earnings forecasts significantly influenced the returns of Sharīʿah-compliant shares. In terms of informativeness, return on equity, sales to price ratio and cash flow to price were associated with the returns of the shares.

The outcome from this finding confirmed that the analyst report retained its position as a good source of reference when making investment decisions. However, the disclosure of information in the form of qualitative information together with fundamental information should be enhanced for Sharīʿah-compliant share so that investors would have adequate information when making an investment decision.

This study will supply more insights into the matter of information content and informativeness of the analyst report in Malaysia by focussing on Sharīʿah-compliant shares, which is practically an underexplored research area in Malaysia.

The purpose of this paper is to determine whether individual investor sentiment and its factors influence investment decision-making behavior in the Indian stock market. The study contributes to the novel conceptual framework that integrates the impact of investor sentiment and outlines the role of its factors (herding, media factor, advocate recommendation and social interaction) during the investment decision-making process.

In this paper, data were collected using a structured questionnaire survey from Indian individual investors. It uses self-reported sources of information collected via a survey of individual investors and estimated the linkage via path modeling. The collected data were analyzed using partial least square structural equation modeling to examine the relationship between the construct, namely, herding, media, advocate recommendation and social interaction with investor sentiment and investment decision-making.

The study shows that herding, media factor, advocate recommendation and social interaction significantly and positively influence the investor sentiment. Among all the factors, social interaction has the lowest influence on investor sentiment. The study also reveals that investor sentiment has a positive impact on investment decision-making.

The study provides valuable insights for the individual investors, financial advisors, policymakers and other stakeholders. Knowledge of behavioral finance would enhance the decision-making capabilities of individual investors in the stock market. Thus, the study calls for the need to increase awareness among Indian investors about behavioral finance and its usefulness in investment decision-making. The paper also sheds light upon the influence of investor sentiment and its antecedents on investment decision-making. The study confirms that the investor relies on their sentiment while making investment decisions. Hence, the stakeholders in the stock market should focus on investor sentiment and other psychological aspects of individual investors as well.

There are very few studies that deal with the behavioral aspects of individual investors in an emerging market context. The study mainly focuses on the antecedent of investor sentiment and its influence on investment decision-making in the Indian stock market. To the best of authors’ knowledge, the present study unique nature that examines the impact of the antecedent of investor sentiment which was not explored in the Indian context and investment decision-making of individual investors.

The purpose of this paper is to examine semi-strong market efficiency by observing the behavioral finance implications of Jim Cramer’s recommendations in bull vs bear markets. The authors extend the literature by analyzing investor reaction through the lenses of prospect theory, overreaction, and herding.

The authors test for abnormal returns in response to Mad Money buy and sell recommendations. The authors use a sample of buy and sell recommendations from MadMoneyRecap.com from July 28, 2005 through February 9, 2009. The 3.5-year time period is the most recent and comprehensive set of Mad Money recommendations that has been tested to date.

The results indicate market inefficiency at the semi-strong level. Furthermore, the findings highlight the loss aversion tendencies of investors in regards to prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) as well as the disposition effect of Shefrin and Statman (1985). Evidence also exists consistent with the herding and overreaction hypotheses.

The evidence suggests contrarian behavior in which investors respond positively to good news in bad times – perhaps, in effort to stay the course and at least break even. This behavior may suggest that losers tend to hold on to losses in hopes of recouping them. Thus, positive information in bad times could further persuade market participants to hang on to or buy more of losers, while also persuading non-shareholders to buy in as well.

Though other studies including Kenny and Johnson (2010) have estimated abnormal returns in response to analyst recommendations, to the knowledge, none has examined behavioral implications of investor reaction to buy and sell recommendations in both bull and bear markets. Furthermore, the study captures a longer bull and bear market and covers two definitions of such markets.

Corporate investment behavior increases the uncertainty of a company’s operation and performance. The purpose of this paper is to investigate how analyst recommendations respond to corporate uncertainty caused by investment behavior and what motivates analysts to react as they do.

The authors test two motivation hypotheses: the hypothesis that analysts are currying favor with management to obtain private information and the hypothesis that analysts have conflicts of interest due to connections. Using Chinese analyst-level data from 2007 to 2015, the authors find that overall investment levels, R&D investment and M&A events are significantly positively correlated with analyst recommendations, suggesting that analysts tend to react optimistically to corporate investment behavior.

Analysts are only optimistic about companies with low information transparency, suggesting that analysts may be trying to curry favor with management to gain access to private information. The authors find that analysts with stronger recommendations have more private information and analysts with more private information publish more accurate earnings forecasts, which supports the hypothesis that analysts curry favor with management through optimistic recommendations to obtain more private information. This is consistent with the logic that the difficulty of earnings forecasting increases under uncertain conditions, increasing the demand for private information. The authors then group the analysts according to their underwriting connections, securities company’s proprietary connections and fund connections, and find that the positive correlation between corporate investment behavior and analyst recommendations exists only in the unconnected groups. This is evidence against the hypothesis that analysts have conflicts of interest due to their connections.

First, the authors link the optimism of analysts with the uncertainty of analysts’ information inputs to partially unpack the black box of analysts’ analyses. Second, the authors test the two hypotheses mentioned. There is a lack of comparative studies on the influence of different motivations on the behavior of analysts.

This paper aims to document the impact of Ramadan on the optimism of analysts’ recommendations taking as a sample the countries of the MENA region during the period between 2004 and 2015. The choice of these countries can be explained by the fact that their population is predominantly of a Muslim faith (The Future of World Religions: Population Growth Projections, 2010-2050, 2015).

The authors used univariate and multivariate regression models to highlight the existence of the Ramadan effect on the optimism of analysts. They have found that pre-holiday optimism is significantly lower than post-holiday optimism.

This paper also documented the effect of analysts’ experience and information uncertainty on the analysts’ optimism level that allowed us to infer that low experience enhances optimism, while environment with low information uncertainty tends to decrease the level of optimism.

Previous research on this topic has investigated the effect of months of the year, turns of the month and days-of-the-week on the behavior of stock exchanges. Another strand of the literature also analyzed the effect of holidays on the latter. However, this is the first attempt to investigate this effect on analysts’ recommendations optimism when the holiday period is related to Islam.

The aim of this paper is to document the effect of analyst coverage on the ex ante probability of stock price crash and the ex ante probability stock price jump.

This paper uses the data of non-financial firms from France to test the arguments presented in this paper during the period between 1997 and 2019. The paper also uses flexible quadrants copulas to compute the ex ante probabilities of crashes and jumps.

The results show that the extent of analyst coverage is positively associated with the ex ante probability of crash and negatively associated with the ex ante probability of jump. The results remain qualitatively the same after several sensitivity checks. The results also show that the relationship between the extent of analyst coverage and the probability of cash and the probability of jump holds when ex post probability of stock price crash and stock price jump is used.

Unlike most of the earlier papers on this topic, this paper uses the ex ante probability of crash and jump. This proxy is better suited than the ones used in the prior literature because it is a forward-looking measure.

The purpose of this paper is to find out whether the election of star analysts leads to the conflict of interests between analysts\institutional investors and individual investors. And then, further investigate how the election results to influence the individual investors’ decision making.

Given the fact that earnings forecasts and stock ratings are the most important foundations for the investor’s investment decision, the authors investigate the relationship among the earnings forecasts, abnormal returns and the election of star analyst. This paper further analyzes the impact factors on investors’ decision. The data used in this paper for star analysts’ information, analysts’ forecast and recommendations, as well as stock performances-related data are from 2005 to 2012.

This paper finds that mass media cannot select analysts with high forecast accuracy, and then misleads investors. It demonstrates that the analysts with poorer forecast ability and more optimistic stock recommendations are more prone to be entitled as star analysts by mass media, and these titled star analysts tend to show a poorer performance. Therefore, the star analyst worsens investors’ cognition on analysts forecast ability and then misleads investors’ decision making.

Media plays a critical role in corporate governance, information collection and diffusion and reducing the information asymmetry, however, it is good to know the role of media in financial markets from a broader perspective. Because media may also bring negative factors to the financial markets such as misguiding the investors and intensify the conflict of interests between analyst and individual investors.

This paper supports a new perspective of the role of mass media in financial market, which is different from existing studies.

Finance textbooks typically state that 8 to 20 stocks can provide adequate diversification for a portfolio. However, these recommendations usually assume a short time horizon such as one year. We examine 20‐year cumulative rates of return and ending wealth from an initial $100,000 investment allocated among 100 large U.S. stocks. Probability distributions obtained from simulations illustrate the shortfall risk faced by investors who own fewer titan 100 stocks. Five percent of the 20‐stock portfolios have ending wealth shortfalls exceeding 28%. These findings suggest that 8 to 20 stocks may be insufficient for long‐term investors.