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Article
Publication date: 7 November 2023

Mohammed Bouaddi, Omar Farooq and Catalina Hurwitz

The aim of this paper is to document the effect of analyst coverage on the ex ante probability of stock price crash and the ex ante probability stock price jump.

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to document the effect of analyst coverage on the ex ante probability of stock price crash and the ex ante probability stock price jump.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper uses the data of non-financial firms from France to test the arguments presented in this paper during the period between 1997 and 2019. The paper also uses flexible quadrants copulas to compute the ex ante probabilities of crashes and jumps.

Findings

The results show that the extent of analyst coverage is positively associated with the ex ante probability of crash and negatively associated with the ex ante probability of jump. The results remain qualitatively the same after several sensitivity checks. The results also show that the relationship between the extent of analyst coverage and the probability of cash and the probability of jump holds when ex post probability of stock price crash and stock price jump is used.

Originality/value

Unlike most of the earlier papers on this topic, this paper uses the ex ante probability of crash and jump. This proxy is better suited than the ones used in the prior literature because it is a forward-looking measure.

Details

Review of Behavioral Finance, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1940-5979

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 19 May 2022

Salah Kayed and Rasmi Meqbel

This paper aims to examine whether firms meeting or just beating an earnings benchmark engage in tone management in earnings conference calls to complement earnings management in…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to examine whether firms meeting or just beating an earnings benchmark engage in tone management in earnings conference calls to complement earnings management in the UK context. It also investigates whether the audience tone in beating or just meeting earnings fails to predict future performance.

Design/methodology/approach

This study was performed using a sample of non-financial UK firms listed in the FTSE 350 index over the period 2010–2015.

Findings

The findings show that firms that exercise more earnings management to meet or just beat earnings are positively associated with the abnormal tone during earnings conference calls. The outcomes also reveal that the audience’s tone of firms meeting or just beating an earnings benchmark fails to predict future performance. This confirms the effectiveness of the tone management in managing the perception of audience.

Practical implications

This study highlights the need for increased accountability by firms on earnings conference call. It also supports academics and practitioners in understanding the management discretion used in reporting and communication during the earnings conference call. Overall, the results of this study are beneficial for regulators, policymakers and professionals, regarding confirming the need for the earnings conference calls to be regulated.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study that examines the association between earnings management and tone management in the UK earnings conference calls. It adds to the existing literature by examining the self-serving behaviour of managerial tone during earnings conference calls within a sitting in which meeting or just beating a benchmark is used. Unlike several studies that explain the behaviour of tone as a signalling strategy, this study reveals that the tendency of impression management behaviour can explain the tone management.

Details

Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-2517

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 11 July 2023

Muskan Sachdeva and Ritu Lehal

Stock markets are considered as the largest and most important units for the development and growth of the economy. The present study attempts to provide a comprehensive view of…

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Abstract

Purpose

Stock markets are considered as the largest and most important units for the development and growth of the economy. The present study attempts to provide a comprehensive view of factors influencing investment decision making process of stock market investors. A multi group analysis of gender is also carried out on the proposed model.

Design/methodology/approach

The data of 402 valid responses are collected through structured questionnaires from individual investors of North India. SPSS 23 is used to do the descriptive analysis and AMOS 22 is used to establish the validity of the constructs and for hypotheses testing. For performing multi group analysis, several invariance tests have also been conducted to check the robustness of the model.

Findings

The results reveal that all the factors such as firm image, accounting information, neutral information, advocate recommendation and personal financial needs significantly influence investment decision making concluding image of the firm being the most influential factor and advocate recommendation being the least influential factor for investment decisions. No significant differences between males and females were found.

Research limitations/implications

The current study suffers from the limitation of restricted geographical area of North India. Moreover, there is also a scope to incorporate more demographic factors for predicting investment decisions.

Originality/value

This study incorporates a range of factors which covers all the aspects of investment decision making. This study also highlights the notion of signaling theory, thus contributing to the limited literature in Indian context.

Details

PSU Research Review, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2399-1747

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 17 October 2022

Xinmin Tian, Zhiqiang Zhang, Cheng Zhang and Mingyu Gao

Considering the role of analysts in disseminating information, the paper explains the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle of China's stock market. As the largest developing country…

Abstract

Purpose

Considering the role of analysts in disseminating information, the paper explains the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle of China's stock market. As the largest developing country, China's research can provide meaningful reference for the research of financial markets in other new countries.

Design/methodology/approach

From the perspective of behavior, establishing a direct link between individual investor attention and stock price overvaluation.

Findings

The authors find that there is a significant idiosyncratic volatility puzzle in China's stock market. Due to the role of mispricing, individual investor attention significantly enhances the idiosyncratic volatility effect, that is, as individual investor attention increases, the greater the idiosyncratic volatility, the lower the expected return. Attention can explain the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle in China's stock market. In addition, due to the role of information production and dissemination, securities analysts can reduce the degree of market information asymmetry and enhance the transparency of market information.

Originality/value

China is the second largest economy in the world, and few scholars analyze it from the perspective of investors' attention. The authors believe this paper has the potential in contributing to the academia.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 16 June 2023

Huosong Xia, Siyi Chen, Justin Z. Zhang and Yulong Liu

The rise of the mobile Internet has accumulated much text information in various online financial forums. Such information often contains the emotional attitudes of investors…

Abstract

Purpose

The rise of the mobile Internet has accumulated much text information in various online financial forums. Such information often contains the emotional attitudes of investors toward financial technology (fintech) platforms, so extracting the sentimental tendency information has great practical value for the development of fintech platforms. Based on the investor sentiment theory, the paper aims to analyze the relevant social media data and test the influence path of online news evaluation on the stock price fluctuation of fintech platforms.

Design/methodology/approach

Taking Oriental Fortune as the research object, this paper selects multiple variables such as stock bar popularity, snowball popularity, news popularity and news sentiment scores collected by UQER and combines the sentiment scores of single daily news into a daily sentiment score. Based on the period from November 1, 2019 to March 31, 2020, during the emergence of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic as the background, the authors conduct the Granger causality test based on the vector autoregressive (VAR) model and analyze the relevant evaluation of Oriental Fortune through the empirical model.

Findings

The authors' results show that different online evaluations impact the rise and fall of stock prices differently, while news popularity has the most significant impact. Besides, news sentiment scores on share price fluctuation have a relatively substantial influence. These findings indicate that the authoritative news evaluation can strongly guide investors to make relevant investment behavior operations in the information dissemination process, significantly affecting stock prices.

Originality/value

The research findings of this paper have good inspiration and reference values for investors and financial regulators.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 5 October 2023

Kléber Formiga Miranda and Márcio André Veras Machado

This article analyzes the hypothesis that analysts issue higher long-term earnings growth (LTG) forecasts following a market-wide investor sentiment.

Abstract

Purpose

This article analyzes the hypothesis that analysts issue higher long-term earnings growth (LTG) forecasts following a market-wide investor sentiment.

Design/methodology/approach

This study analyzed 193 publicly traded Brazilian firms listed on B3 (Brasil, Bolsa, Balcão), totaling 2,291 observations. To address the potential selection bias resulting from analysts' preference for more liquid firms, this study used the Heckman model in the analysis with samples with only one analyst and the entire sample. The study also applied other robustness tests to ensure the reliability of the findings.

Findings

The results suggest that market-wide investor sentiment influences LTG when the firm's stocks are difficult to value. Market optimism did not reflect five-year profit growth after the forecast issue, suggesting lower forecast accuracy during high investor sentiment values.

Practical implications

Volatile-earnings firms have relevant implications in LTG forecasts during bullish moments. According to the study’s evidence, investors' decisions and policymakers' and regulators' rules should consider analysts' expertise as independent information when considering LTG as input for valuation models, even under market optimism.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to the literature on the influence of investor sentiment on analysts' forecasts by incorporating two crucial elements in the discussion: the scenario free from herding behavior, as usually only one analyst issues LGT forecast for Brazilian firms, and the analysis of research hypotheses incorporates the difficulty of pricing a firm given the uncertainty of its earnings as an explanation to bullish forecast.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 3 April 2023

Muhammad Fayyaz Sheikh, Aamir Inam Bhutta and Tahira Parveen

Investor sentiment (optimism or pessimism) may influence investors to follow others (herding) while taking their investment decisions. Herding may result in bubbles and crashes in…

Abstract

Purpose

Investor sentiment (optimism or pessimism) may influence investors to follow others (herding) while taking their investment decisions. Herding may result in bubbles and crashes in the financial markets. The purpose of the study is to examine the presence of herding and the effects of investor sentiment on herding in China and Pakistan.

Design/methodology/approach

The investor sentiment is captured by five variables (trading volume, advance/decline ratio, weighted price-to-earnings ratio, relative strength index and interest rates) and a sentiment index developed through principal component analysis (PCA). The study uses daily prices of 2,184 firms from China and 568 firms from Pakistan for the period 2005 to 2018.

Findings

The study finds that herding prevails in China while reverse herding prevails in Pakistan. Interestingly, as investors become optimistic, herding in China and reverse herding in Pakistan decrease. This indicates that herding and reverse herding are greater during pessimistic periods. Further, the increase in herding in one market reduces herding in the other market. Moreover, optimistic sentiment in the Chinese market increases herding in the Pakistani market but the reverse is not true.

Practical implications

Considering the greater global financial liberalization, and better opportunities for emotion sharing, this study has important implications for regulators and investors. Market participants need to understand the prevalent irrational behavior before trading in the markets.

Originality/value

Since individual proxies may depict different picture of the relationship between sentiment and herding therefore the study also develops a sentiment index through PCA and incorporates this index in the analysis. Further, this study examines cross-country effects of herding and investor sentiment.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 May 2023

Ameen Qasem, Abdulalem Mohammed, Enrico Battisti and Alberto Ferraris

The aim of this study is to examine the ownership impact on firm sustainable investments (FSIs). In particular, this research examines the link between institutional investor…

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this study is to examine the ownership impact on firm sustainable investments (FSIs). In particular, this research examines the link between institutional investor ownership (IIO), managerial ownership (MOWN) and FSIs in the tourism industry in Malaysia.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses a data set of 346 firm-year observations from 2008 to 2020 and applies feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) regression analysis. The study sample is based on tourism firms listed on Bursa Malaysia (the Malaysian Stock Exchange).

Findings

There is a significant positive association between IIO and FSIs. When IIO is classified into foreign (FIIO) and local (LIIO), this significant association is mainly driven by FIIO. In addition, there is a significant, positive association between managerial ownership (MOWN) and firm sustainable investments (FSIs). These findings imply that firm ownership has an influence on FSIs in the tourism industry.

Originality/value

This is the first attempt to consider IIO and MOWN simultaneously in a single model estimation. The findings contribute to emerging capital markets where the involvement of ownership concentration in the governance of publicly listed firms is a common practice.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 2 January 2024

Xunzhuo Xi, Can Chen, Rong Huang and Feng Tang

This study aims to examine whether Chinese firms increase their concerns about analysts’ earnings forecasts following the split-share structure reform (SSR) in 2005, which removed…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine whether Chinese firms increase their concerns about analysts’ earnings forecasts following the split-share structure reform (SSR) in 2005, which removed trading restrictions on approximately 70% of the shares of listed firms.

Design/methodology/approach

Using data from 2002 to 2019, the authors empirically test the association between meeting or beating analysts’ earnings expectations and the implementation of SSR.

Findings

The authors find that firms are more inclined to meet analysts’ earnings expectations after the introduction of SSR. Further analysis shows that firms guide analysts to walk their forecasts down by manipulating third-quarter earnings, suggesting enhanced value relevance between analysts’ forecasts and third-quarter earnings management in the postreform period.

Practical implications

The findings reveal an undesirable side effect of SSR and suggest that policymakers and regulators should consider and carefully manage the complex relationships between firms and analysts.

Originality/value

In contrast to prior studies that predominantly focus on the positive effects of the reform, this study reveals the side effects of SSR and provides new evidence on the mechanisms of meeting or beating analysts’ earnings expectations.

Details

International Journal of Accounting & Information Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1834-7649

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 December 2023

Khairul Anuar Kamarudin, Wan Adibah Wan Ismail, Larelle Chapple and Thu Phuong Truong

This study aims to examine the effects of product market competition (PMC) on analysts’ earnings forecast attributes, particularly forecast accuracy and dispersion. The authors…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to examine the effects of product market competition (PMC) on analysts’ earnings forecast attributes, particularly forecast accuracy and dispersion. The authors also investigate whether investor protection moderates the relationship between PMC and forecast attributes.

Design/methodology/approach

The sample covers 49,578 firm-year observations from 38 countries. This study uses an ordinary least squares regression, a Heckman two-stage regression and an instrumental two-stage least squares regression.

Findings

This study finds that PMC is associated with higher forecast accuracy and lower dispersion. The results also show that investor protection enhances the effect of PMC on forecast accuracy and dispersion. These findings imply that countries with strong investor protection have a better information environment, as exhibited by the stronger relationship between PMC and analysts’ forecast properties.

Practical implications

The findings highlight the importance of strong governance mechanisms in both the country and industry environments. Policymakers, including government agencies and financial regulators, can leverage these insights to formulate regulations that promote competition, ensure investor protection and facilitate informed investment decisions.

Originality/value

This study advances our understanding of how PMC affects analysts’ earnings forecast attributes. In addition, it pioneers evidence of the moderating role of investor protection in the relationship between PMC and forecast attributes.

Details

Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1985-2517

Keywords

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