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1 – 10 of over 4000Ron Bird and Lorenzo Casavecchia
The purpose of this research is to study the extent to which various price and earnings momentum measures can be used to enhance portfolio performance by better timing entry into…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this research is to study the extent to which various price and earnings momentum measures can be used to enhance portfolio performance by better timing entry into value stocks (and isolating those growth stocks that still have some period to run).
Design/methodology/approach
The paper uses the traditional methodology of ranking stocks on the basis of certain value and momentum measures (e.g. book‐to‐market, market return over some prior period), forming portfolios based on these rankings which are held for a specific period of time. The portfolios are formed on the basis of a single measure of multiple measures and the returns and associated p‐values are calculated with the objective of determining how these portfolios perform relative to a benchmark portfolio composed of all the companies in the universe. The analysis is conducted on a database consisting of approximately 8,000 companies drawn from 15 European countries over the period from January 1989 to May 2004.
Findings
It was found that a number of individual, and combinations of, price and earnings momentum factors are able to enhance value portfolios by identifying stocks that will not perform well in the immediate future. The best measure that was found for timing entry into value and growth stocks is a combination of price momentum and price acceleration where the difference in monthly performance between the “best” and “worst” value (growth) portfolios is 2.6 percent (2.4 percent) for holding periods of 12 months. It was found not only that this momentum measure can be used to enhance value and growth in portfolios consisting of all European stocks but also that it can be successfully deployed in the major individual markets and regions.
Originality/value
Most studies that evaluate the performance of value and growth portfolios do not consider the characteristics of the stocks held in these portfolios. However, it is these characteristics that determine the success of the portfolios formed on the basis of what can only be described as very crude valuation multiples. This paper demonstrates the potential of a closer evaluation of the stocks chosen to be included in a particular portfolio by being able to identify those stocks most likely to perform (and under‐perform). The findings in the paper have obvious implications for the investment processes of investment managers but they also provide useful insights into the efficiency of the European markets and the typical means of price formation within those markets.
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What explains patterns in stock prices is an important question. One such pattern, price momentum, is a well-known capital markets anomaly where recent stock price performance…
Abstract
Purpose
What explains patterns in stock prices is an important question. One such pattern, price momentum, is a well-known capital markets anomaly where recent stock price performance appears to continue into the future. This momentum is frequently thought to reflect delayed reaction by investors to unspecified information (i.e. underreaction). This study aims to provide a useful insight regarding momentum: potential mispricing related to accounting fundamentals appears to conceal longer-term reversals in price momentum. Controlling for these fundamentals reveals that price momentum reverses, indicating that investor overreaction is a potentially important source of stock price momentum. The evidence presented in this study emphasizes the importance of decoupling momentum and accounting fundamentals to achieve a more complete understanding of what explains stock price momentum.
Design/methodology/approach
This study explores this question by examining the longer-term performance of momentum stocks in the US market after decoupling it from performance related to accounting fundamentals using returns to fundamentals-based factors as controls in time series regressions.
Findings
This study finds evidence of clear reversals in the remaining price momentum. These reversals provide a new insight into the momentum effect because they imply that the component of price momentum not traceable to accounting fundamentals reflects investor overreaction rather than underreaction.
Originality/value
The findings indicate that the underlying nature of the information driving price movements is important to achieving a complete understanding of what explains price momentum. To the best of the author’s knowledge, no other study has examined the behavior of stock price momentum while controlling for accounting fundamentals.
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Unyong (Howard) Pyo and Yong Jae Shin
This study aims to focus on the profitability of momentum trading in the Korean stock market. More specifically, it aims to conduct an examination of the relationship between…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to focus on the profitability of momentum trading in the Korean stock market. More specifically, it aims to conduct an examination of the relationship between momentum returns and idiosyncratic volatility (IVol) to determine whether momentum profits can be explained by IVol.
Design/methodology/approach
Portfolios are formed based on their past performance and examine the momentum, or contrarian returns, as the difference between winning and losing portfolios. To confirm that the momentum strategy provides excess returns, the relationship between momentum returns and IVol is studied. The Fama and French three‐factor model is also examined to see whether systematic risk affects momentum profits. Firm size, stock price, and turnover are controlled to determine robustness. Finally, a time‐series relationship between aggregate IVol and momentum profits is investigated.
Findings
The paper illustrates that excess returns are obtained from a momentum strategy, not a contrarian strategy, in the Korean stock market. Momentum returns are higher among high IVol stocks, especially high IVol winners. Examining the Fama and French three‐factor model, it is found that momentum returns cannot be explained by systematic risk. The findings are robust after controlling for factors such as firm size, book‐to‐market ratio, and turnover. The paper confirms the effect of IVol on momentum returns by illustrating that a time‐series relationship between momentum returns and aggregate IVol is positive.
Originality/value
This paper is among the first, to the authors' knowledge, to examine the relationship between momentum profits and IVol in the Korean stock market, one of the mature financial markets. The findings in this study can be applied to better understand the sources of gains from the momentum strategy in international stock markets.
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Sanjay Sehgal and Vibhuti Vasishth
– The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the profitability of investment strategies based on past price changes and trading volumes.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the profitability of investment strategies based on past price changes and trading volumes.
Design/methodology/approach
Data are employed from January 1998 to December 2011 for select emerging markets. Portfolios are formed on the basis of past information on prices and/or volumes. Unrestricted and risk adjusted returns for sample portfolios are analyzed. The risk models employed in study are Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Fama-French (F-F) Model and Fama-French augmented models.
Findings
Price momentum patterns are observed for Brazil, India, South Africa and South Korea, while there are reversals in Indonesia and China. Low-volume stocks outperform high-volume stocks for all sample countries except China. Further, volume and price based bivariate strategies do a better job than univariate strategies in case of India, South Africa and South Korea. The past price and volume patterns in stock returns are not fully explained by CAPM as well as the F-F Model. Price and volume momentum factors do play a role in explaining some of these return patterns. Finally, the unexplained returns seem to be an outcome of investor under or overreaction to past information. The sources of price and volume momentum seem to be partly risk based and partly behavioral.
Originality/value
The study analyzes combined role of price and volume in portfolio formation with post holding analysis. The work is useful for global portfolio managers, policy makers, market regulators and the academic community. The study contributes to asset pricing and behavioral finance literature for emerging markets.
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Momentum is an unresolved puzzle for the financial economists. The purpose of this paper is to dissect the sources of momentum profits and investigate the possible role played by…
Abstract
Purpose
Momentum is an unresolved puzzle for the financial economists. The purpose of this paper is to dissect the sources of momentum profits and investigate the possible role played by the macro-economic variables in explaining them.
Design/methodology/approach
The data for 493 companies that form part of Bombay Stock Exchange 500 index in India is used for calculating 6-6 momentum profits. Profits from the strategy are regressed on Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Fama-French (FF) model to see whether they can explain these profits. Guided by prior research, three methodologies are used to see the possible role played by macro-economic variables in explaining momentum payoffs.
Findings
The empirical results show that momentum profits are persistent in the intermediate horizon. CAPM and FF three-factor model fail to explain these returns. Price momentum seems to be explained in one of the model by lagged macro-economic variables which lend an economic foundation to the Carhart factor. The “Winner minus Loser” factor explains about 37 percent of abnormal returns on the winner portfolio that are missed by the FF model. The unexplained momentum profits seem to be an outcome of investors’ over-reaction to past information. Hence, the sources of price momentum profits seem to be partially behavioral and partially rational.
Practical implications
The failure of risk models in fully explaining the momentum profits may be good news for portfolio managers who are looking out for stock market arbitrage opportunities.
Originality/value
This paper fulfills an identified need to study the sources behind price momentum profits in Indian context.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine the added value of combining a momentum indicator with a value indicator in varying stock market conditions.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the added value of combining a momentum indicator with a value indicator in varying stock market conditions.
Design/methodology/approach
A comprehensive sample of Finnish non‐financial stocks is first divided into three‐quantile portfolios based on valuation multiples and composite value measures. The value and glamour portfolios are divided further into two‐sextile portfolios based on the price momentum indicator. The performance of portfolios is evaluated on the basis of their raw and risk‐adjusted returns. Moreover, the impact of the stock market cycle on relative performance of quantile portfolios is examined.
Findings
Taking account of price momentum beside relative valuation criteria enhances the performance of most of the value‐only portfolios during the full sample period (1993‐2009). During bullish conditions, the inclusion of a momentum criterion somewhat adds value to an investor, but during bearish conditions this added value is negative.
Research limitations/implications
The sample of stocks is not large in spite of its comprehensiveness from the local stock market aspect. Future studies can apply the approach to other stock markets.
Practical implications
The paper provides useful implications in portfolio management. The combination of the value and momentum criteria has paid off to the investor, despite the fact that its added value during bearish periods is negative, on an average.
Originality/value
This is the first time that the impact of the stock market cycle on the added value of combining price momentum with composite value measures as a portfolio‐formation criterion is examined.
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Leilei Shi, Xinshuai Guo, Andrea Fenu and Bing-Hong Wang
This paper applies a volume-price probability wave differential equation to propose a conceptual theory and has innovative behavioral interpretations of intraday dynamic market…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper applies a volume-price probability wave differential equation to propose a conceptual theory and has innovative behavioral interpretations of intraday dynamic market equilibrium price, in which traders' momentum, reversal and interactive behaviors play roles.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors select intraday cumulative trading volume distribution over price as revealed preferences. An equilibrium price is a price at which the corresponding cumulative trading volume achieves the maximum value. Based on the existence of the equilibrium in social finance, the authors propose a testable interacting traders' preference hypothesis without imposing the invariance criterion of rational choices. Interactively coherent preferences signify the choices subject to interactive invariance over price.
Findings
The authors find that interactive trading choices generate a constant frequency over price and intraday dynamic market equilibrium in a tug-of-war between momentum and reversal traders. The authors explain the market equilibrium through interactive, momentum and reversal traders. The intelligent interactive trading preferences are coherent and account for local dynamic market equilibrium, holistic dynamic market disequilibrium and the nonlinear and non-monotone V-shaped probability of selling over profit (BH curves).
Research limitations/implications
The authors will understand investors' behaviors and dynamic markets through more empirical execution in the future, suggesting a unified theory available in social finance.
Practical implications
The authors can apply the subjects' intelligent behaviors to artificial intelligence (AI), deep learning and financial technology.
Social implications
Understanding the behavior of interacting individuals or units will help social risk management beyond the frontiers of the financial market, such as governance in an organization, social violence in a country and COVID-19 pandemics worldwide.
Originality/value
It uncovers subjects' intelligent interactively trading behaviors.
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This paper aims to examine the impact of the dividend payout ratio on future stock returns and momentum strategies.
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to examine the impact of the dividend payout ratio on future stock returns and momentum strategies.
Design/methodology/approach
The author uses the portfolio sorting approach used in the momentum literature to examine this impact.
Findings
First, the author shows that the returns for the winner stocks tend to be the largest if no dividends are paid and then decrease with the dividend payout ratio; the returns for the loser stocks tend to have an inverted U-shaped relationship with the dividend payout ratio, but the zero-dividend loser stocks have the smallest return; and the returns for the stocks between the winners and the losers tend to remain similar, regardless of the dividend payout ratio. Second, the author shows that momentum profit is the largest for the stocks that do not make dividend payment but appear similar for the stocks that pay dividends. The author's empirical findings imply that stock price momentum is a function of the dividend payout ratio, growth stock momentum tends to be much stronger than value stock momentum and no-dividend stock momentum beats dividend stock momentum. In fact, when the dividend payout ratio is considered, momentum profit can be improved by up to 63 per cent.
Originality/value
This paper is the first one to examine the impact of dividend payout ratios on future stock returns and momentum profit, and it obtained many interesting empirical results. In addition, unlike most studies in the momentum literature that use behavioral theory to explain empirical findings, this paper uses the growth option idea to present a rational explanation for the empirical results in this paper.
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Le Quy Duong and Philippe Bertrand
Although the solid empirical proof of momentum is documented in various stock markets, there are many debates among academics with respect to the source of momentum profit. The…
Abstract
Purpose
Although the solid empirical proof of momentum is documented in various stock markets, there are many debates among academics with respect to the source of momentum profit. The first aim of this paper is intensively re-examine the momentum profit in Vietnam, an important emerging market. Secondly, the authors study the return predictability of a measure of investors’ overreaction, then examine whether the momentum effect in Vietnam is explained by overreaction.
Design/methodology/approach
Using the weekly data of more than 300 non-financial Vietnamese stocks during 2009–2019, the authors build a measure of investors’ overreaction, which is based on trading volume and the sign of stock returns. Consequently, to investigate whether momentum exits after controlling for overreaction, the authors carefully compare trading strategies based on overreaction with price momentum strategies using adjusted returns and double sorts on past returns and levels of overreaction.
Findings
The article makes three main findings. Firstly, the authors discover the empirical evidence of momentum in the Vietnamese equity market. Secondly, the measure of overreaction could be a predictor of Vietnamese stock returns. Stocks that have experienced a stronger upward overreaction provide a higher average return. Finally, returns on trading strategies based on overreaction are robust after adjusting for momentum, while returns on momentum portfolios become insignificant after adjusting for overreaction. By double-sorting, the authors document that holding past returns constant, the average returns of portfolios rise monotonically with their measure of overreaction. Hence, the momentum profit in Vietnam arises from investors’ overreaction.
Originality/value
The paper extends previous research on the behavioral explanation of momentum in emerging stock markets, which has not been fully exploited in the literature.
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The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between a stock market's index returns and its subsequent firm‐level momentum profits. This relationship is analysed for…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between a stock market's index returns and its subsequent firm‐level momentum profits. This relationship is analysed for each of ten individual European stock markets between 1973 and 2010.
Design/methodology/approach
Using firm‐level data, intra‐market momentum returns are analysed, using various ranking and holding period combinations. Standard t‐tests as well as pooled and country‐specific regressions are employed to determine the significance of the non‐linear relationship between one‐, two‐ and three‐year index returns and subsequent momentum returns.
Findings
Momentum returns following a bull market are positive for all ten stock markets; statistical significance is reached by nine of those ten. Per contrast, momentum returns following a bear market are insignificant for all ten stocks markets, and the average return is negative. Further, in all ten stock markets the momentum profits are lowest following the greatest drops in the index; this effect is significant in eight countries. These results are consistent with the behavioural theories on investors' overconfidence and undue self‐attribution.
Practical implications
The paper's findings suggest that investors should refrain from pursuing a momentum strategy in European stock markets shortly after a severe bear market.
Originality/value
This is the first study to investigate the temporal dependence of firm‐level momentum returns on preceding index movements in European stock markets.
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