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1 – 10 of over 2000The purpose of this research is to study the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market returns of the seven highest economic performing emerging countries…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this research is to study the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market returns of the seven highest economic performing emerging countries (E7).
Design/methodology/approach
The study is conducted using the daily data for exchange rates and stock market returns in each of the E7 countries from January 1, 2019, to January 1, 2022. The study employs the ordinary least squares, autoregressive distributed lag error correction regression and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH (1,1)) regression models to fully investigate the impact of exchange rate on stock markets. For further investigation, the GARCH (1,1) model is run twice for each country with and without the inclusion of exchange rate to determine its effect on the volatility of stock returns.
Findings
The findings support the presence of cointegration relationship between the variables for all countries. The results reveal significant positive long-run relationship between exchange rates and stock market returns in all countries except for Indonesia, which evidenced a significant negative impact. The results of the GARCH (1,1) add that the inclusion of exchange rate in the model accounts for a slight change in the volatility of stock returns.
Originality/value
The research provides empirical evidence that appreciating currencies are perceived positively by investors leading to better performing capital markets. The outcomes of this study may assist policy makers in understanding to what degree changes in exchange rates can influence capital markets, as well as narrow the gap in literature regarding which theory is more relevant in explaining how exchange rate fluctuations impact market values.
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The study examines the impact of real exchange rates and asymmetric real exchange rates on real stock prices in Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Korea, Japan, the United…
Abstract
Purpose
The study examines the impact of real exchange rates and asymmetric real exchange rates on real stock prices in Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Korea, Japan, the United Kingdom (UK), Germany, Hong Kong and Indonesia.
Design/methodology/approach
This study uses the asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach.
Findings
The asymmetric ARDL approach shows more economic variables are found to be statistically significant than the ARDL approach. The asymmetric real exchange rate is mostly found to have a significant impact on the real stock price. Moreover, real output and real interest rates are found to have a significant impact on the real stock price. The Asian financial crisis (1997–1998) and the global financial crisis (2008–2009) are found to have a significant impact on the real stock price in some economies.
Research limitations/implications
Economic variables are important in the determination of stock prices.
Originality/value
It is important to examine the impact of asymmetric real exchange rate on the real stock price as the depreciation of real exchange rate could have different impacts than the appreciation of real exchange rate on the real stock price. The previous studies in the literature mostly found the significant impact of nominal exchange rate on the nominal stock price.
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Faisal Abduleh Salman Irag Al-Najaf, Mahdi Salehi and Hind Shafeeq Nimr Al-Maliki
The present study aims to examine the effects of the Islamic sacred months, namely, Muḥarram, Rajab, Dhu al-Qaʿdah and Dhu al-Ḥijjah, on stock prices on the Iran and Iraq Stock…
Abstract
Purpose
The present study aims to examine the effects of the Islamic sacred months, namely, Muḥarram, Rajab, Dhu al-Qaʿdah and Dhu al-Ḥijjah, on stock prices on the Iran and Iraq Stock Exchanges.
Design/methodology/approach
Using the infrastructure models of the capital market, the daily stock prices were calculated for the sacred and non-sacred months. As the data of this study are non-stationary, the AMIRA time-series model was used for better understanding of the model or future projections. The dependent variables of this study are the daily stock indexes for Iranian and Iraqi Stock Exchanges, and independent ones are the sacred and non-sacred months of a lunar year. Data were gathered daily from the financial statements of Iranian and Iraqi Stock Exchanges websites. To test the hypotheses under study, a five-year period from 2012 to 2016 was considered for both Iraqi and Iranian Stock Exchanges, which corresponds with the lunar calendar from 1433-1437AH.
Findings
The obtained results indicated that there is no significant difference in stock prices between the sacred months of Muḥarram, Rajab, Dhu al-Qaʿdah and Dhu al-Ḥijjah and other non-sacred months. However, the stock price in the Iranian Stock Exchange has a significant difference in Rajab and Dhu al-Qaʿdah with other non-sacred months.
Originality/value
The results of this study will reveal more than ever the role of Islamic sacred months for society and users of financial statements to make better financial decisions especially in Islamic emerging markets.
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Mourad Mroua and Lotfi Trabelsi
This paper aims to investigate simultaneously the causality and the dynamic links between exchange rates and stock market indices. It attempts to identify the short- and long-term…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to investigate simultaneously the causality and the dynamic links between exchange rates and stock market indices. It attempts to identify the short- and long-term effect of the US dollar on major stock market indices of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South-Africa (BRICS) nations.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper applies a new methodology combining the panel generalized method of moments model and the panel auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) method to investigate the existence of a causal short-/long-run relationships and dynamic dependence among all stock market returns and exchanges rates changes of BRICS countries.
Findings
Results show that exchange rate changes have a significant effect on the past and the current volatility of the BRICS stock indices. Besides, ARDL estimations reveal that exchange rate movements have a significant effect on short- and long-term stocks market indices of all BRICS countries
Originality/value
The findings have implications for policymakers and market participants who try to manage the exchange rate will have a different dose of intervention if they know that the effects of currency depreciation are different than appreciation. These results have important implications that investors should take into account in frequency-varying exchange rates and stock returns and regulators should consider developing sound policy measures to prevent financial risk.
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Billy Prananta and Constantinos Alexiou
The authors explore the relationship between the exchange rate, bond yield and the stock market as well as the effect of capital market dynamics on the exchange rate before and…
Abstract
Purpose
The authors explore the relationship between the exchange rate, bond yield and the stock market as well as the effect of capital market dynamics on the exchange rate before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors employ a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) methodology using daily data of the Indonesian economy over the period 2012–2021.
Findings
Whilst, over the full sample period, the authors find no cointegration between the exchange rate, the 10-year bond yield and stock market, for the COVID-19 period, evidence of cointegration is present. Furthermore, the results suggest that asymmetric effects are evident both in the short as well as the long run.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time that the relationship between the exchange rate, bond yield and the stock market as well as the effect of capital market dynamics on the exchange rate before and during the COVID-19 pandemic has been explored in the case of the Indonesian economy.
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This study aims to extend the literature by extensively investigating the impact of foreign exchange and interest rate changes on the returns and volatility of bank stocks in…
Abstract
Purpose
This study aims to extend the literature by extensively investigating the impact of foreign exchange and interest rate changes on the returns and volatility of bank stocks in Saudi Arabia, which is the largest dual banking industry.
Design/methodology/approach
This study employs the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model on stock returns of four fully Islamic Saudi banks and eight conventional Saudi banks.
Findings
The results showed that the foreign exchange rate return has a positive impact on Saudi conventional bank returns, while it has an adverse impact on Saudi Islamic bank returns. Moreover, a higher interest rate return has a positive impact on Saudi bank stock returns implying that the assets side is more sensitive to changes in interest rates than the liability side. Finally, higher foreign exchange and interest rates volatility increases the volatility of Saudi bank returns, where the former has the largest significant impact. Therefore, Saudi regulators should pay more attention to the risk management of their banks because this could threaten the stability of their financial system.
Originality/value
To the best knowledge of the author, this is the first study that tries to extensively analyze the joint impact of foreign exchange and interest rates on bank stock returns and volatility in Saudi Arabia by applying the GARCH model. The study uses a long data set from 2010 to 2019 that includes all Saudi banks and employs four measures of interest rates to increase the robustness of the results.
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Silvio John Camilleri and Francelle Galea
The purpose of this paper is to obtain new empirical evidence about the connections between equity trading activity and five possible liquidity determinants: market…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to obtain new empirical evidence about the connections between equity trading activity and five possible liquidity determinants: market capitalisation, dividend yield, earnings yield, company growth and the distinction between recently listed firms as opposed to more established ones.
Design/methodology/approach
The authors use a sample of 172 stocks from four European markets and estimate models using the entire sample data and different sub-samples to check the relative importance of the above determinants. The authors also conduct a factor analysis to re-classify the variables into a more succinct framework.
Findings
The evidence suggests that market capitalisation is the most important trading activity determinant, and the number of years listed ranks thereafter.
Research limitations/implications
The positive relation between trading activity and market capitalisation is in line with prior literature, while the findings relating to the other determinants offer further empirical evidence which is a worthy addition in view of the contradictory results in prior research.
Practical implications
This study is of relevance to practitioners who would like to understand the cross-sectional variation in stock liquidity at a more detailed level.
Originality/value
The originality of the paper rests on two important grounds: the authors focus on trading turnover rather than on other liquidity proxies, since the former is accepted as an important determinant of the liquidity-generation process, and the authors adopt a rigorous approach towards checking the robustness of the results by considering various sub-sample configurations.
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Mongi Arfaoui and Aymen Ben Rejeb
The purpose of this paper is to examine, in a global perspective, the oil, gold, US dollar and stock prices interdependencies and to identify instantaneously direct and indirect…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine, in a global perspective, the oil, gold, US dollar and stock prices interdependencies and to identify instantaneously direct and indirect linkages among them.
Design/methodology/approach
A methodology based on simultaneous equations system was used to identify direct and indirect linkages for the period 1995-2015. The authors try initially to find theoretical answers to main question of the study by discussing causal bilateral relationships while focusing on multilateral interactions.
Findings
The results show significant interactions between all markets. The authors found a negative relation between oil and stock prices but oil price is significantly and positively affected by gold and USD. Oil price is also affected by oil futures prices and by Chinese oil gross imports. Gold rate is concerned by changes in oil, USD and stock markets. The US dollar is negatively affected by stock market and significantly by oil and gold price. Indirect effects always exist which confirm the presence of global interdependencies and involve the financialization process of commodity markets.
Originality/value
Motivation of this research paper is the substantial implications of price movements on real economy and financial markets. Understanding that co-movement has great value for investors, policy makers and portfolio managers. This paper differs from previous studies in several aspects. First, most of the research papers focus on bilateral linkages solely, while the authors’ investigation was implemented on all the four markets simultaneously. Second, the study was developed in a global framework using international data. The global analysis allows avoiding country specific effects.
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Animesh Bhattacharjee and Joy Das
The present study examines the long-run and short-run effects of monetary factors (money supply, interest rate, inflation and foreign currency exchange rate) on the Indian stock…
Abstract
Purpose
The present study examines the long-run and short-run effects of monetary factors (money supply, interest rate, inflation and foreign currency exchange rate) on the Indian stock market.
Design/methodology/approach
The study used sophisticated econometric tools to analyse monthly observations from January 1993 to December 2019.
Findings
The augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test indicates that the variables involved in the present study are either I(0) or I(1). The Bai–Perron test multiple break point test identifies four breakpoint dates in the Indian stock market index series. The breakpoint dates are incorporated as different dummy variables in the autoregressive distributed lag-error correction model (ARDL-ECM) regression. The F-bounds test reveals that the variables in the study are cointegrated within the time period under consideration. This study’s findings show that the interest rate, which is a proxy for monetary policy instrument, and the foreign currency exchange rate have a negative impact on the Indian stock market. Furthermore, the authors find that structural changes significantly affect the performance of Indian stock market.
Practical implications
The study's outcomes indicate that economic factors should be taken into account by investors and portfolio managers when formulating long-term investment strategies. The government, through the Reserve Bank of India, should exercise caution in avoiding discretionary actions that could increase interest rates since the flow of funds to the stock market will be disrupted. To reduce risk, investors should keep a close eye on how interest rates and foreign exchange rates are rising.
Originality/value
The study covers a long period of time, which the majority of previous work did not consider. Furthermore, the study uses different dummy variables in the ARDL model to represent structural breaks (as determined by the Bai–Perron multiple break point test).
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Keshab Khatri Chettri, Jeevan Kumar Bhattarai and Ramji Gautam
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the stock market development in Nepal.
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the stock market development in Nepal.
Design/methodology/approach
The study used Johansen cointegration approach to determine long-run relationship and VEC Granger causality test to check the causal relations between the variables. The sample covered annual time-series data for the period 1996–2020.
Findings
The results suggest that FDI plays significant positive role in the stock market development in the long-run but inversely affect in the short-run. Unidirectional causality running from FDI to stock market development is observed in the long-run and bidirectional in the short-run. There is an insignificant positive relationship between exchange rate and FDI in the short-run. Banking sector development complements stock market development in the short-run but act as a substitute in the long-run. The statistically negative coefficient of exchange rate imply that the appreciation of the home currency encourage the development of the stock market in the long-run.
Originality/value
The positive and statistical coefficients of cointegration results indicate that FDI complements the development of stock market in Nepal in the long-run. Furthermore, the depreciation of the domestic currency may potentially contribute to the foreign direct investments in Nepal.
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