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The purpose of this study is to address why managers enter the excessive market. A comparison of the facts and perceptions of entrants relative to success in the market shows that many entrants are confident about the viability of their businesses and enter the market. Accordingly, the authors simulate market entry decisions to detect behavioral biases.

The authors adapted the entry decisions simulation method, which is supported by the theoretical foundations of signal detection theory (SDT) and signaling theory. The simulation model is implemented on the Anaconda platform and written in Python 3.

The results of this study suggest that overestimation relates to excess market entry. Also, the proportion of excess entry under difficult conditions is always higher than under easy conditions.

This research helps managers and firms think about their and their competitors' abilities and evaluate them before entering the market. Policymakers and practitioners can also design programs such as experiential learning to help entrants assess their skills.

So far, no research has investigated the role of overconfidence under different market conditions. Accordingly, this study contributes to the current market entry literature by disentangling the debate between absolute and relative confidence and by considering the role of task difficulty.

This paper aims to propose a simulation-based performance evaluation model for the drone-based delivery of aid items to disaster-affected areas. The objective of the model is to perform analytical studies, evaluate the performance of drone delivery systems for humanitarian logistics and can support the decision-making on the operational design of the system – on where to locate drone take-off points and on assignment and scheduling of delivery tasks to drones.

This simulation model captures the dynamics and variabilities of the drone-based delivery system, including demand rates, location of demand points, time-dependent parameters and possible failures of drones’ operations. An optimization model integrated with the simulation system can update the optimality of drones’ schedules and delivery assignments.

An extensive set of experiments was performed to evaluate alternative strategies to demonstrate the effectiveness for the proposed optimization/simulation system. In the first set of experiments, the authors use the simulation-based evaluation tool for a case study for Central Florida. The goal of this set of experiments is to show how the proposed system can be used for decision-making and decision-support. The second set of experiments presents a series of numerical studies for a set of randomly generated instances.

The goal is to develop a simulation system that can allow one to evaluate performance of drone-based delivery systems, accounting for the uncertainties through simulations of real-life drone delivery flights. The proposed simulation model captures the variations in different system parameters, including interval of updating the system after receiving new information, demand parameters: the demand rate and their spatial distribution (i.e. their locations), service time parameters: travel times, setup and loading times, payload drop-off times and repair times and drone energy level: battery’s energy is impacted and requires battery change/recharging while flying.

The main operations of the powder-coating process are staggered along a closed-loop conveyor. Given the volatile market demands, using a fixed level of staffing may result in significant productivity losses. The present study aims to capture stochastic behavior and optimize operator assignment problems in a practical powder-coating process. By using the proposed methodology, when demand changes, the optimal operator assignment configuration can be provided, ensuring high labor productivity.

The powder-coating process is an important industrial application and is often a labor-intensive system. The present study adopts a practical case to optimize its staffing level. Because of its operational complexity, the problem is solved by a proposed simulation-optimization approach. The results are promising, and the proposed methodology is shown to be an effective approach.

The proposed methodology was tested for various demand levels. The optimized operator assignment configuration always improves on the performance of other staffing levels. Given the same daily throughput, the optimized operator assignment configuration can improve performance by as much as 19%. In scenarios where there is increased demand, the resulting reduction in overtime work improves performance by between 20.33% and 56.72%. In scenarios where there is reduced demand, the optimized staffing level produces improvements between 3.13% and 50%. Compared with the fixed staffing policy of the case company, the flexible staffing policy of the proposed methodology can maintain high labor productivity across demand variations. The results are consistent with the Shojinka philosophy of the Toyota Production System.

This study proposes a solution to the operator assignment decision in a labor-intensive manufacturing system – a powder-coating processing system. Powder coating provides a solid powder coating without any solvent. Because of its excellent application performance and environmental protection, it is widely used in the field of metal coating, especially appliances for offices and homes. Most of the existing literature has solved the problem by making unrealistic assumptions. The present study proposes a simulation-optimization method to solve a practical problem in powder-coating processing. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is illustrated by a practical application. According to the experimental results, five operators can be saved for the same daily throughput. An average of 35 and 19 min of overtimes can be saved when demand increases by 10% and 20% with one less operator; between 2 and 16 operators can be saved when demand falls by 10%–60%.

This paper aims to obtain the evolution law of dynamic performance of CR400BF electric multiple unit (EMU).

Using the dynamic simulation based on field test, stiffness of rotary arm nodes and damping coefficient of anti-hunting dampers were tested. Stiffness, damping coefficient, friction coefficient, track gauge were taken as random variables, the stochastic dynamics simulation method was constructed and applied to research the evolution law with running mileage of dynamic index of CR400BF EMU.

The results showed that stiffness and damping coefficient subjected to normal distribution, the mean and variance were computed and the evolution law of stiffness and damping coefficient with running mileage was obtained.

Firstly, based on the field test we found that stiffness of rotary arm nodes and damping coefficient of anti-hunting dampers subjected to normal distribution, and the evolution law of stiffness and damping coefficient with running mileage was proposed. Secondly stiffness, damping coefficient, friction coefficient, track gauge were taken as random variables, the stochastic dynamics simulation method was constructed and applied to the research to the evolution law with running mileage of dynamic index of CR400BF EMU.

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, to combine a holistic model – in our case the balanced scorecard – with the time-driven activity-based costing model. The inspiration for this stems both from Kaplan and Norton and from the intense discussions and use of business analytics (BA) and performance management (PM). Second, to use numerical experiments – more specifically Monte Carlo simulation – to design and explore four hypothetical scenarios within such a holistic model. The paper also aims to emphasise the role played by statistics in increasing the confidence in using such a framework.

The author runs four numerical experiments using different assumptions to show how a decision-maker can improve the outcome by making small changes in the key performance indicator (KPI) input variables.

The paper gives recommendations for the assumptions that each decision-maker has to consider when setting out to conduct this kind of analysis. Small changes in some input variables may completely change the output and hence the decision result.

The paper shows why practitioners and researchers need to better understand the limitations of deterministic analysis to make realistic models when combining more accounting models. To choose the relevant probability distributions for the input resources is an important issue for the decision-maker as they have a very large impact on the result.

The real value of the paper lies in making students and practitioners as well as researchers aware of the opportunities for stochastic modelling and also to point at the problems and limitations of combining elements from BA with performance measurement and management.

One of the crucial issues in the contemporary finance is the prediction of the volatility of financial assets. In this paper, the authors are interested in modelling the stochastic volatility of the MAD/EURO and MAD/USD exchange rates.

For this purpose, the authors have adopted Bayesian approach based on the MCMC (Monte Carlo Markov Chain) algorithm which permits to reproduce the main stylized empirical facts of the assets studied. The data used in this study are the daily historical series of MAD/EURO and MAD/USD exchange rates covering the period from February 2, 2000, to March 3, 2017, which represent 4,456 observations.

By the aid of this approach, the authors were able to estimate all the random parameters of the stochastic volatility model which permit the prediction of the future exchange rates. The authors also have simulated the histograms, the posterior densities as well as the cumulative averages of the model parameters. The predictive efficiency of the stochastic volatility model for Morocco is capable to facilitate the management of the exchange rate in more flexible exchange regime to ensure better targeting of monetary and exchange policies.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the novelty of the paper lies in the production of a tool for predicting the evolution of the Moroccan exchange rate and also the design of a tool for the monetary authorities who are today in a proactive conception of management of the rate of exchange. Cyclical policies such as monetary policy and exchange rate policy will introduce this type of modelling into the decision-making process to achieve a better stabilization of the macroeconomic and financial framework.

The purpose of this research paper is to recover the autonomous flight performance of a mini unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) via stochastically optimizing the wing over certain parameters (i.e. wing taper ratio and wing aspect ratio) while there are lower and upper constraints on these redesign parameters.

A mini UAV is produced in the Iskenderun Technical University (ISTE) Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Laboratory. Its complete wing can vary passively before the flight with respect to the result of the stochastic redesign of the wing while maximizing autonomous flight performance. Flight control system (FCS) parameters (i.e. gains of longitudinal and lateral proportional-integral-derivative controllers) and wing redesign parameters mentioned before are simultaneously designed to maximize autonomous flight performance index using a certain stochastic optimization strategy named as simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA). Found results are used while composing UAV flight simulations.

Using stochastic redesign of mini UAV and simultaneously designing mini ISTE UAV over previously mentioned wing parameters and FCS, it obtained a maximum UAV autonomous flight performance.

Permission of the directorate general of civil aviation in the Republic of Türkiye is essential for real-time UAV autonomous flights.

Stochastic redesign of mini UAV and simultaneously designing mini ISTE UAV wing parameters and FCS approach is very useful for improving any mini UAV autonomous flight performance cost index.

Stochastic redesign of mini UAV and simultaneously designing mini ISTE UAV wing parameters and FCS approach succeeds confidence, highly improved autonomous flight performance cost index and easy service demands of mini UAV operators.

Creating a new approach to recover autonomous flight performance cost index (e.g. satisfying less settling time and less rise time, less overshoot during flight trajectory tracking) of a mini UAV and composing a novel procedure performing simultaneous mini UAV having passively morphing wing over certain parameters while there are upper and lower constraints and FCS design idea.

The purpose of this paper was to assess the economic impact of investment in different animal welfare–enhancing flooring solutions in Swedish dairy farming.

The authors developed a bio-economic model and used stochastic partial budgeting approach to simulate the economic consequences of enhancing solid and slatted concrete floors with soft rubber covering.

The findings highlight that keeping herds on solid and slatted concrete floor surfaces with soft rubber coverings is a profitable solution, compared with keeping herds on solid and slatted concrete floors without a soft covering. The profit per cow when kept on a solid concrete floor with soft rubber covering increased by 13%–16% depending on the breed.

Promoting farm investments such as improvement in flooring solution, which have both economic and animal welfare incentives, is a potential way of promoting sustainable dairy production. Farmers may make investments in improved floors, resulting in enhanced animal welfare and economic outcomes necessary for sustaining dairy production.

This literature review indicated that the economic impact of investment in specific types of floor improvement solutions, investment costs and financial outcomes have received little attention. This study provides insights needed for a more informed decision-making process when selecting optimal flooring solutions for new and renovated barns that improve both animal welfare and ease the burden on farmers and public financial support.

Disaster management and humanitarian logistics (HT) play crucial roles in large-scale events such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and tsunamis. Well-organized disaster response is crucial for effectively managing medical centres, staff allocation and casualty distribution during emergencies. To address this issue, this study aims to introduce a multi-objective stochastic programming model to enhance disaster preparedness and response, focusing on the critical first 72 h after earthquakes. The purpose is to optimize the allocation of resources, temporary medical centres and medical staff to save lives effectively.

This study uses stochastic programming-based dynamic modelling and a discrete-time Markov Chain to address uncertainty. The model considers potential road and hospital damage and distance limits and introduces an a-reliability level for untreated casualties. It divides the initial 72 h into four periods to capture earthquake dynamics.

Using a real case study in Istanbul’s Kartal district, the model’s effectiveness is demonstrated for earthquake scenarios. Key insights include optimal medical centre locations, required capacities, necessary medical staff and casualty allocation strategies, all vital for efficient disaster response within the critical first 72 h.

This study innovates by integrating stochastic programming and dynamic modelling to tackle post-disaster medical response. The use of a Markov Chain for uncertain health conditions and focus on the immediate aftermath of earthquakes offer practical value. By optimizing resource allocation amid uncertainties, the study contributes significantly to disaster management and HT research.

The adverse interactions between disruptions can increase the supply chain's vulnerability. Accordingly, establishing supply chain resilience to deal with disruptions and employing business continuity planning to preserve risk management achievements is of considerable importance. The aforementioned idea is discussed in this study.

This study proposes a multi-objective optimization model for employing business continuity management and organizational resilience in a supply chain for responding to multiple interrelated disruptions. The improved augmented e-constraint and the scenario-based robust optimization methods are adopted for multi-objective programming and dealing with uncertainty, respectively. A case study of the automotive battery manufacturing industry is also considered to ensure real-world conformity of the model.

The results indicate that interactions between disruptions remarkably increase the supply chain's vulnerability. Choosing a higher fortification level for the supply chain and foreign suppliers reduces disruption impacts on resources and improves the supply chain's resilience and business continuity. Facilities dispersion, fortification of facilities, lateral transshipment, order deferral policy, dynamic capacity planning and direct transportation of products to markets are the most efficient resilience strategies in the under-study industry.

Applying resource allocation planning and portfolio selection to adopt preventive and reactive resilience strategies simultaneously to manage multiple interrelated disruptions in a real-world automotive battery manufacturing industry, maintaining the long-term achievements of supply chain resilience using business continuity management and dynamic capacity planning are the main contributions of the presented paper.