Search results

This survey explores the application of real options theory to the field of health economics. The integration of options theory offers a valuable framework to address these challenges, providing insights into healthcare investments, policy analysis and patient care pathways.

This research employs the real options theory, a financial concept, to delve into health economics challenges. Through a systematic approach, three distinct models rooted in this theory are crafted and analyzed. Firstly, the study examines the value of investing in emerging health technology, factoring in future advantages, associated costs and unpredictability. The second model is patient-centric, evaluating the choice between immediate treatment switch and waiting for more clarity, while also weighing the associated risks. Lastly, the research assesses pandemic-related government policies, emphasizing the importance of delaying decisions in the face of uncertainties, thereby promoting data-driven policymaking.

Three different real options models are presented in this study to illustrate their applicability and value in aiding decision-makers. (1) The first evaluates investments in new technology, analyzing future benefits, discount rates and benefit volatility to determine investment value. (2) In the second model, a patient has the option of switching treatments now or waiting for more information before optimally switching treatments. However, waiting has its risks, such as disease progression. By modeling the potential benefits and risks of both options, and factoring in the time value, this model aids doctors and patients in making informed decisions based on a quantified assessment of potential outcomes. (3) The third model concerns pandemic policy: governments can end or prolong lockdowns. While awaiting more data on the virus might lead to economic and societal strain, the model emphasizes the economic value of deferring decisions under uncertainty.

This research provides a quantified perspective on various decisions in healthcare, from investments in new technology to treatment choices for patients to government decisions regarding pandemics. By applying real options theory, stakeholders can make more evidence-driven decisions.

Decisions about patient care pathways and pandemic policies have direct societal implications. For instance, choices regarding the prolongation or ending of lockdowns can lead to economic and societal strain.

The originality of this study lies in its application of real options theory, a concept from finance, to the realm of health economics, offering novel insights and analytical tools for decision-makers in the healthcare sector.

The purpose of this paper is to improve autonomous flight performance of a fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) via simultaneous morphing wingtip and control system design conducted with optimization, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and machine learning approaches.

The main wing of the UAV is redesigned with morphing wingtips capable of dihedral angle alteration by means of folding. Aircraft dynamic model is derived as equations depending only on wingtip dihedral angle via Nonlinear Least Squares regression machine learning algorithm. Data for the regression analyses are obtained by numerical (i.e. CFD) and analytical approaches. Simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation (SPSA) is incorporated into the design process to determine the optimal wingtip dihedral angle and proportional-integral-derivative (PID) coefficients of the control system that maximizes autonomous flight performance. The performance is defined in terms of trajectory tracking quality parameters of rise time, settling time and overshoot. Obtained optimal design parameters are applied in flight simulations to test both longitudinal and lateral reference trajectory tracking.

Longitudinal and lateral autonomous flight performances of the UAV are improved by redesigning the main wing with morphing wingtips and simultaneous estimation of PID coefficients and wingtip dihedral angle with SPSA optimization.

This paper originally discusses the simultaneous design of innovative morphing wingtip and UAV flight control system for autonomous flight performance improvement. The proposed simultaneous design idea is conducted with the SPSA optimization and a machine learning algorithm as a novel approach.

We present an approach for pricing American put options with a regime-switching volatility. Our method reveals that the option price can be expressed as the sum of two components: the price of a European put option and the premium associated with the early exercise privilege. Our analysis demonstrates that, under these conditions, the perpetual put option consistently commands a higher price during periods of high volatility compared to those of low volatility. Moreover, we establish that the optimal exercise boundary is lower in high-volatility regimes than in low-volatility regimes. Additionally, we develop an analytical framework to describe American puts with an Erlang-distributed random-time horizon, which allows us to propose a numerical technique for approximating the value of American puts with finite expiry. We also show that a combined approach involving randomization and Richardson extrapolation can be a robust numerical algorithm for estimating American put prices with finite expiry.

This study aims to investigate the most effective approach for governments and enterprises to combat desertification by considering the governance cycle. The focus is on understanding how the government can incentivize enterprises to actively engage in desertification combat efforts.

Both the government and the enterprise are treated as rational entities, making strategic choices for joint participation in combating desertification. Recognizing the dynamic nature of the desertification combat area, differential game models are employed to identify the optimal mode for combating desertification.

The findings underscore the significant influence of the governance cycle duration on the selection of desertification combat modes for government and enterprise. A cooperative mode is best suited to a short governance cycle, while an ecological subsidy mode is optimal for a longer cycle. Enhancing governance technology and shortening the governance cycle are conducive to combating desertification. Reducing taxes alone may not be an effective control strategy; rather, the government can better motivate enterprises by adopting tax rate policies aligned with the chosen governance mode.

This research contributes by elucidating the impact mechanism of the government cycle’s length on the desertification combat process. The results may offer valuable insights for governments in formulating strategies to encourage corporate participation in combating desertification and provide theoretical support for selecting optimal desertification combat modes.

This paper aims to examine the level of economic efficiency and factors that influence economic efficiency among seed potato producers in South-western Uganda.

The paper analyses the economic efficiency of 499 informal and 137 formal seed producers using primary data collected through a structured questionnaire. A multi-stage sampling technique was used to select the study sites and specific farmers. A one-step estimation procedure of normalized translog cost frontier and inefficiency model was employed to determine the level of economic efficiency and the influencing factors.

The results showed that mean economic efficiencies were 91.7 and 95.2% for informal and formal seed potato producers, respectively. Furthermore, results show significant differences between formal and informal seed potato producers in economic efficiency at a one percent level. Market information access, credit access, producers' capacity and experience increase the efficiency of informal while number of potato varieties, market information access and producers' experience increase economic efficiency for formal counterparts.

Most seed potato producers, especially the informal ones do not keep comprehensive records of their production and marketing activities. This required more probing as answers depended on memory recall.

Future research could explore panel data approach involving more cropping seasons with time variant economic efficiency and individual unobservable characteristics that may influence farmers' efficiency to validate the current findings.

The paper shows that there is more potential for seed potato producers to increase their economic efficiency given the available technology. This has a direct implication on the economy through increased investment in the production and promotion of high yielding seed potato varieties to meet the growing national demand for potatoes.

The paper bridges the gap in literature on economic efficiency among seed potato producers, specifically in applying the normalized translog cost frontier approach in estimating economic efficiency in the context of potato sub-sector in Uganda.

The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-10-2021-0641

This paper investigates how agile capabilities in humanitarian settings work in combination, and its effects on performance outcome. The study was conducted in the frame of reference of response operations during cyclones and floods, which is considered most complex and with the most widespread impact.

A survey-based method was used to collect empirical data on response operations from 131 field officers who were involved in disaster response during cyclones or floods. A partial least square based structural equation model was used to study the path model of interaction of agile capabilities, and their effect on performance outcomes.

The results show that integration of agile capabilities is important for enhancing effectiveness of humanitarian response. The results indicated a serial mediation effect involving visibility, responsiveness and flexibility capability on the effectiveness of emergency response.

This research has implications for response units of humanitarian organisations. This includes capacity building for key agile capabilities, integration, supply chain re-configuration and differential positioning of response phase as against preparedness and recovery phases.

This study is unique for the chosen humanitarian setting, which is considered most difficult. The authors demonstrate from empirical evidence the interaction effects of agile capabilities during response phase for cyclones and floods, and their impact. The research insights will help practitioners to configure and position supply chains for better effectiveness during response operations, which have markedly different objectives vis-à-vis other phases or types of humanitarian settings.

Every day, small and big incidents happen all over the world, and given the human, financial and spiritual damage they cause, proper planning should be sought to deal with them so they can be appropriately managed in times of crisis. This study aims to examine humanitarian supply chain models.

A new model is developed to pursue the necessary relations in an optimal way that will minimize human, financial and moral losses. In this developed model, in order to optimize the problem and minimize the amount of human and financial losses, the following subjects have been applied: magnitude of the areas in which an accident may occur as obtained by multiple attribute decision-making methods, the distances between relief centers, the number of available rescuers, the number of rescuers required and the risk level of each patient which is determined using previous data and machine learning (ML) algorithms.

For this purpose, a case study in the east of Tehran has been conducted. According to the results obtained from the algorithms, problem modeling and case study, the accuracy of the proposed model is evaluated very well.

Obtaining each injured person's priority using ML techniques and each area's importance or risk level, besides developing a bi-objective mathematical model and using multiple attribute decision-making methods, make this study unique among very few studies that concern ML in the humanitarian supply chain. Moreover, the findings validate the results and the model's functionality very well.

The rapidly growing e-commerce industry with its special characteristics brings new challenges to the optimization of the supply chain and inventory management. This study aims to investigate the inventory-related optimization of an e-marketplace official store that works on a business-to-customer system when cashback promotion is used to attract more customers. Also, it proposes a new inventory model to maximize the e-commerce profit by optimizing the cashback amount and delivery period.

The proposed model assumes that customer demand is a function of price and delivery time and that price is affected by the cashback amount. The e-commerce operator has a profit-sharing contract with an e-payment company that facilitates the payment. E-commerce also builds collaboration under a cost-sharing contract with a supplier to ensure product delivery. A mathematical model is developed and the related theories are investigated. A numerical example illustrates the validity of the model and a sensitivity analysis is carried out to give useful insights.

A new inventory model for an e-market system has been introduced which shows the impact of a cashback promotion on the e-commerce business. This study shows that managers can optimize the cashback amount and its delivery time to get the maximum profit. In certain cases, the manager may set a high cashback amount (e.g. 100%) to attract customers to place more orders.

This study presents a new inventory model for today’s fast-growing e-commerce business; therefore, the results contribute to the understanding of promotion program practices and inventory management and provide insights to develop efficient e-commerce managerial decisions.

This study aims to realize efficient, fast and safe robot search task, the belief criteria decision-making approach is proposed to solve the object search task with an uncertain location.

The study formulates the robot search task as a partially observable Markov decision process, uses the semantic information to evaluate the belief state and designs the belief criteria decision-making approach. A cost function considering a trade-off among belief state, path length and movement effort is modelled to select the next best location in path planning.

The semantic information is successfully modelled and propagated, which can represent the belief of finding object. The belief criteria decision-making (BCDM) approach is evaluated in both Gazebo simulation platform and physical experiments. Compared to greedy, uniform and random methods, the performance index of path length and execution time is superior by BCDM approach.

The prior knowledge of robot working environment, especially semantic information, can be used for path planning to achieve efficient task execution in path length and execution time. The modelling and updating of environment information can lead a promising research topic to realize a more intelligent decision-making method for object search task.

Professional sports teams employ highly paid managers and coaches to train players and make tactical and strategic team decisions. A large literature analyzes the impact of manager decisions on team outcomes. Empirical analysis of manager decisions requires a quantifiable proxy variable for manager decisions. Previous research focused on manager dismissals, tenure on teams, the number of substitutions made in games or the number of healthy players on rosters held out of games for rest, generally finding small positive impacts of manager decisions on team success.

The authors quantify manager decisions by developing a novel measure of game-specific coaching decisions: the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) of playing-time across players on a team roster over the course of a season.

Evidence from two-way fixed effects regression models explaining observed variation in National Basketball Association team winning percentage over the 1999–2000 to 2018–2019 seasons show a significant association between managers’ allocation of playing time and team success. A one standard deviation change in playing-time HHI that reflects a flattened distribution of player talent is associated with between one and two additional wins per season, holding the talent of players on the team roster constant. Heterogeneity exists in the impact across teams with different player talent.

This is one of the first papers to examine playing-time concentration in the NBA. The results are important for understanding how managerial decisions about resource allocation lead to sustained competitive advantage. Linking coaching decisions to wins can help teams to better promote this core product.