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Article
Publication date: 7 August 2017

Srinivas Nippani and Dror Parnes

This paper aims to analyze how political brinkmanship impacted Treasury yields during the debt ceiling debate in 2015. The results show that the resignation of the House…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to analyze how political brinkmanship impacted Treasury yields during the debt ceiling debate in 2015. The results show that the resignation of the House Speaker John A. Boehner caused a significant decrease in Treasury bill yields of one- and three-month maturities. The authors robust analysis indicates that these lower yields have saved US taxpayers several billion dollars in extra tax expenses. This paper provides evidence that lack of political brinkmanship can be very advantageous for the taxpayers. This has considerable implications for lawmakers in this post-election year.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors examine the differences in yields between equal maturity short-term Treasury securities and commercial paper using t-tests, non-parametric tests and a robust regression model based on earlier empirical studies.

Findings

This study provides evidence indicating that between September 25, 2015, and up to October 30, 2015, relatively lower Treasury yields resulted from the lack of political brinkmanship, and this has saved the US taxpayers several billion dollars in interest expenses in 2015.

Research limitations/implications

The study showed that lower yields will result from a lack of political brinkmanship, and this resulted in savings of several billions of dollars in interest payments. Considering that both the White House and Congress will be controlled by the same political party, this gives lawmakers a unique opportunity to have less acrimonious debt ceiling debates. The limitation of the study is that it does not consider the impact on foreign exchange markets and other factors which could play a major role.

Practical/implications

Unlike earlier scenarios where default risk increased, followed by credit rating downgrades, there was a quiet confidence this time about a quick resolution. Markets were stable, and this allowed money market participants to invest more confidently even when an upcoming debt ceiling debate is on. Corporations that invested additional cash in money markets for short-term could do it more confidently at that time without fear of default or interest rate risk which could potentially harm the market value of their investments.

Practical/implications

It implies that there will be lower taxpayer costs because of debt ceilings and avoidance of shutdowns of the federal government. It also implies that there could be more confidence in the dollar.

Originality/value

Several earlier studies have examined Treasury default caused by political brinkmanship. This is the first study to examine an event where political brinkmanship appeared possible and then suddenly dissipated in a single day. Political brinkmanship is bad news because it increases taxpayer interest burden as seen from several of the studies above. Therefore, it should be considered good news if no disagreement is evident. This argument serves as our motivation for this paper. As an increase in the chances of default causes an increase in the yield of Treasury bills as earlier studies showed, a decrease in the chance of default caused Treasury bill yields to be that much lower based on the results of this study.

Article
Publication date: 10 May 2019

Dror Parnes and Srinivas Nippani

This study aims to extend the literature by exploring the degrees of integration of both fixed and adjustable mortgage rates and diverse riskless (Treasury) and risky…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to extend the literature by exploring the degrees of integration of both fixed and adjustable mortgage rates and diverse riskless (Treasury) and risky (corporate) interest rates in the capital markets from January 1, 2010, until November 7, 2018. This period is uniquely characterized by a sharp conversion on January 20, 2017, from enhanced financial regulation during the Obama administration to major deregulatory ambitions during the first 22 months of the Trump administration.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use the augmented Dickey and Fuller and the Phillips and Perron unit root tests to examine time series stationarity and the Johansen cointegration rank and the Stock-Watson common trends tests to inspect various cointegrations and regressions of time series pairs to explore different effects. The authors deploy these techniques over the entire time frame, as well as for distinct sub-periods of similar length.

Findings

The authors conclude that a deregulatory setting favors cointegration between mortgage and non-corporate capital markets. However, an enriched regulatory environment supports cointegration between mortgage and corporate capital markets. In addition, the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer protection Act from July 21, 2010, created a unique though short-term effect on the relationships between Treasury and corporate bonds and fixed-rate mortgages.

Practical implications

The journey contributes to the overall understanding of the interactions among US financial markets. They are considered efficient, competitive and fully developed if their prices quickly adjust to economic changes and regulatory transformations.

Originality/value

The authors study the degrees of integration of various conventional and adjustable mortgage rates and different fixed and floating interest rates in the US capital markets from January 1, 2010, until November 7, 2018. This recent time frame has yet to be examined in the economic literature. This period is also characterized by a sharp transformation on January 20, 2017, from enhanced financial regulation during the Obama administration to major deregulatory drives during the first 22 months of the Trump administration.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 11 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 October 2005

Srinivas Nippani and Kenneth M. Washer

The enactment of Riegle‐Neal IBBEA in 1994 encouraged bank mergers and acquisitions. Empirical evidence indicates that large banks benefited from IBBEA enactment. However…

Abstract

The enactment of Riegle‐Neal IBBEA in 1994 encouraged bank mergers and acquisitions. Empirical evidence indicates that large banks benefited from IBBEA enactment. However, there is little, if any, evidence of the impact of the act on small banks’ profitability relative to large banks. This study examines the impact of IBBEA on the performance of small banks in the period preceding and following IBBEA implementation. Evidence is presented that indicates the return on assets of small banks was significantly less than that of larger banks in the post‐IBBEA period. This is contrary to the results of the pre‐IBBEA period when small banks’ profitability was competitive with and in some cases even better than large banks’ profitability. It is concluded that the enactment of IBBEA has placed small banks at a competitive disadvantage which could eventually lead to their demise.

Details

American Journal of Business, vol. 20 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1935-5181

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 August 2011

Srinivas Nippani and John G. Greenhut

The purpose of the paper is to check for reverse weekend effect in the Canadian stock market.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of the paper is to check for reverse weekend effect in the Canadian stock market.

Design/methodology/approach

T‐tests, non‐parametric tests and regressions were employed.

Findings

There is reverse weekend effect in the Canadian stock market. Canadian stocks are shown to exhibit the traditional weekend effect prior to 1988, dissipating after that year until 1998 and then reversing to become the first non‐US market for which a reverse weekend effect is found.

Originality/value

This is the first paper on the Canadian stock market looking at reversal.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 37 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 9 August 2011

Kenneth Washer, Srinivas Nippani and John Wingender

The purpose of this paper is to examine the day‐of‐the‐week effect for three primary money market instruments in Canada. The sample period is 1980‐2009.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the day‐of‐the‐week effect for three primary money market instruments in Canada. The sample period is 1980‐2009.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use three approaches. First, a parametric t‐test is employed to determine if a particular day‐of‐the‐week mean return is significantly different from zero, using both a full sample and a trimmed sample. Next, the Wilcoxon signed ranked test is utilized to assess whether the median weekday return is different from zero for each day. Lastly, a binary regression model is used to test if Monday's mean return is different from other days.

Findings

The traditional Monday effect is prevalent in the 1980s for corporate paper and treasury bills (TB), but not for bankers acceptances (BA). In the 1990s, the Monday effect disappears completely. However, in the 2000s the Monday effect reappears, but is positive (it reverses) for both corporate paper and BA. The authors also find strong support for Wednesday being a high return day, which concurs with related money market studies.

Research limitations/implications

While the results are statistically significant, the economic significance is dubious. This study helps market participants in that it shows that they need to allow for distinct day‐of‐the‐week patterns when using yield spreads.

Practical implications

One practical implication for practitioners is to time purchases of Canadian money market securities for Monday when returns are low (relying on the results of the full sample period). Issuers should time sales for non‐Mondays when returns are higher and yields are lower.

Originality/value

This study is original in that it is the first one to analyze day‐of‐the‐week effects in the Canadian money market. The authors compare the results to studies that focus on the US market.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 37 no. 9
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 8 August 2016

Kenneth M Washer, Srinivas Nippani and Robert R Johnson

Several articles in the popular press have detailed an end-of-year anomaly known as the Santa Claus Rally, a period best defined as the last five trading days of December…

Abstract

Purpose

Several articles in the popular press have detailed an end-of-year anomaly known as the Santa Claus Rally, a period best defined as the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. The purpose of this paper is to examine US stock market returns over this period from 1926 to 2014.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors examine the Santa Claus Rally by relating it to firm size in the stock markets of the USA. The Santa Claus Rally consists of the last five trading days in December and the first two in January. The authors use t-tests, non-parametric test and regression analysis to determine if investors in small firms get superior returns over the period 1926-2014.

Findings

The authors find that returns are generally higher during the period and that the effect is considerably stronger for small-firm portfolios relative to large capitalization portfolios. The authors also provide convincing evidence that the three most important trading days (especially for small stock portfolios) are the last trading day in December and the first two trading days in January.

Research limitations/implications

The authors only check the markets in the USA. Market makers can use this to get significantly high returns during the Christmas-New Year period. The study shows for the first time that there is a size effect as part of the Santa Claus Rally.

Practical implications

This is the first study to show that Santa Claus Rally exists for a long time in the USA. It is the first study to show that there is a size effect in Santa Claus Rally. Market participants could get significantly higher returns by investing or being invested in the stock market during this period.

Social implications

The impact of the holiday season on stock market returns.

Originality/value

This is the first major academic study to examine Santa Claus Rally in this much detail. The authors not only show that the rally exists, the authors show that it is based on firm size and has been in existence for nearly 90 years in the USA.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 42 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 March 2022

Luisa Tibiletti

The paper proposes using modified duration in calculating the proper risk-adjusted discount rate (RADR) to account for downside risk scenarios in capital budgeting.

Abstract

Purpose

The paper proposes using modified duration in calculating the proper risk-adjusted discount rate (RADR) to account for downside risk scenarios in capital budgeting.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper shows how to use modified duration to summarize in a single number the bidimensional information about the inflows and terms in which they are charged in the use of the RADR. If a short modified duration characterizes the project, that is, the most relevant inflows are charged in short times, then discounting at RADR has mild effects on net present value (NPV). Else, if a long modified duration characterizes the project, discounting at RADR may have severe effects on NPV. The study proves that RADR's effectiveness increases with the project's modified duration.

Findings

The study builds a bridge between the regular NPV method used in academia and the RADR method used in the managerial context by identifying the proper RADR that leads the same NPV risk-adjustments, whichever method is used by including modified duration into the analysis.

Practical implications

The results show how to select the proper RADR by reducing the subjectivity and increasing financial precision based on modified duration, thus providing an alternative to the norm. Simulations are used to make sensitivity analysis more effective and spotlight the main drivers in the risk-adjustments providing robust results.

Originality/value

This paper fulfils the gap between the RADR method and the expected net present value method by providing simple relations between the characteristic parameters.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 23 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

Keywords

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