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Article
Publication date: 11 July 2016

Kung-Chi Chen, Lee-Young Cheng, Sheng-Jie Huang and Yan Zhao

– The purpose of this paper is to examine market reactions to private equity placements and intra-industry information spillover effects in the Taiwan Stock Exchange.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine market reactions to private equity placements and intra-industry information spillover effects in the Taiwan Stock Exchange.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors first use the market model to compute the abnormal announcement returns. To examine the joint impact of the private investment in public equity (PIPE) purposes and the lead investor industry, the authors regress the issuers’ cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) on the dummy variables of PIPE purposes and the lead investor industry. To study the spillover effects, the authors regress the rivals’ CARs on the issuers’ CARs, PIPE purposes, and the lead investor industry. Finally, the industry Herfindahl index is used as a proxy for the market power of issuers and rivals to examine its impact on the spillover effects.

Findings

The authors find that issuing firms experience positive abnormal returns during the announcement period. Issuers enjoy more positive market reactions when the proceeds of offerings are primarily used to establish a long-term strategic alliance or to integrate business and when the lead investor is in the same industry. Furthermore, the authors show that the contagion effect dominates the competitive effect in private equity placements at the aggregate level. At the subsample level, the authors find competitive effect overpowers contagion effect when the purpose of offerings is primarily used to establish a long-term strategic alliance or to integrate business and when the lead investor is in the different industry. Finally, the authors show that rivals with relative lower market power enjoy more positive contagion effects.

Originality/value

First, the analysis documents the simultaneous importance of both the purposes of private offerings and the lead investor’s industry on announcement reactions, which shed new light on the positive abnormal returns during the announcement period. Second, the study adds to the literature on the information spillover effects by analyzing the role played by purposes of offerings and rivals’ market power. This paper provides a more complete picture of the offsetting competitive and contagion effects.

Details

Managerial Finance, vol. 42 no. 7
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0307-4358

Keywords

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Article
Publication date: 14 September 2020

Matteo Foglia, Alessandra Ortolano, Elisa Di Febo and Eliana Angelini

The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of financial contagion between Eurozone banks, observing the credit default swaps (CDSs) market during the period 2009–2017.

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of financial contagion between Eurozone banks, observing the credit default swaps (CDSs) market during the period 2009–2017.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors use a dynamic spatial Durbin model that enables to explore the direct and indirect effects over the short and long run and the transmission channels of the contagion.

Findings

The results show how contagion emerges through physical and financial market links between banks. This finding implies that a bank can fail because people expect other related financial institutions to fail as well (self-fulfilling crisis). The study provides statistically significant evidence of the presence of credit risk spillovers in CDS markets. The findings show that equity market dynamics of “neighbouring” banks are important factors in risk transmission.

Originality/value

The research provides a new contribution to the analysis of EZ banking risk contagion, studying CDS spread determinants both under a temporal and spatial dimension. Considering the cross-dependence of credit spreads, the study allowed to verify the non-linearity between the probability of default of a debtor and the observed credit spreads (credit spread puzzle). The authors provide information on the transmission mechanism of contagion and, on the effects among the largest banks. In fact, through the study of short- and long-term impacts, direct and indirect, the paper classify banks of systemic importance according to their effect on the financial system.

Details

Studies in Economics and Finance, vol. 37 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1086-7376

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Article
Publication date: 19 February 2021

Kunjana Malik, Sakshi Sharma and Manmeet Kaur

The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented shock to the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) economy and their…

Abstract

Purpose

The outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented shock to the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) economy and their financial markets have plummeted significantly due to it. This paper adds to the recent literature on contagion due to spillover by uniquely examining the presence of pairwise contagion or volatility transmissions in stock markets returns of India, Brazil, Russia, China and USA prior to and during COVID-19 pandemic period.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) by Bollerslev (1986) under diagonal parameterization is used to estimate multivariate GARCH framework also known as BEKK (Baba EngleKraft and Kroner) model on stock market returns of BRIC nations and the US.

Findings

The empirical results show that the model captures the volatility spillovers and display statistical significance for own past mean and volatility with both short- and long-run persistence effects. Own volatility spillovers (Heatwave phenomenon) have been found to be highest for the US, China and Brazil compared to Russia and India. The coefficients indicate persistence of volatility for each country in terms of its own past errors. The highest and long-term spillover effect is found between US and Russia. The results recommend that Russia is least vulnerable to outside shocks. Finally after examining the pairwise results, it is suggested that the BRIC countries stock indices have exhibited volatility spillover due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Research limitations/implications

The study may be extended to include other emerging market economies under a dynamic framework.

Practical implications

Researchers and policymakers may draw useful insights on cross-market interdependencies regarding the spillovers in BRIC countries' stock markets. It also helps design international portfolio diversification strategies and in constructing optimal portfolios during COVID and in a post-COVID world.

Originality/value

COVID-19 has been an improbable event in the history of the world which can have a large impact on the financial economies across the emerging countries. This event can be deemed to be informative enough to measure the co-movements of the equity markets amongst cross-country return series, which has not been investigated so far for BRIC nations.

Details

Journal of Economic Studies, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0144-3585

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Article
Publication date: 5 July 2019

Christian Eckert, Nadine Gatzert and Alexander Pisula

Previous research observed that large internal fraud events in the general financial services industry imply negative spillover effects, whereas internal fraud in…

Abstract

Purpose

Previous research observed that large internal fraud events in the general financial services industry imply negative spillover effects, whereas internal fraud in investment banks can imply significantly positive effects for other banks. This paper aims to shed further light on this contradictory result.

Design/methodology/approach

For this purpose, the authors compare the spillover effects of the three largest cases of rogue trader events in investment banks (Company 1, 1995; Company 2, 2008; Company 3, 2011) on the largest competing non-announcing banks and insurance companies in Europe based on an event study.

Findings

The results show that while the respective announcing firm suffered significant market value losses that even led to bankruptcy in case of Company 1, spillover effects on other banks and insurers were twofold. In particular, in case of Company 2 and Company 3, spillover effects on other financial firms were significantly positive depending on the event window, indicating a dominating competitive effect, whereas the Company 1 event with its resulting bankruptcy led to significantly negative spillover effects and thus contagion.

Originality/value

The results offer a first indication that the severity of the event in terms of its consequences for the announcing firm is crucial, as internal fraud events have the potential to significantly worsen the market values of other financial services firms, which is in contrast to the typically observed positive effects.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 20 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

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Article
Publication date: 16 July 2021

Da-Eun Yoon, Tonmoy Choudhury, Anup Kumar Saha and Mamunur Rashid

Globally influential Islamic banks from the Middle East and Southeast Asia carry voluminous correspondence banking with banks from China and India, leading to potential…

Abstract

Purpose

Globally influential Islamic banks from the Middle East and Southeast Asia carry voluminous correspondence banking with banks from China and India, leading to potential spillover effect of contagion among the banks from these regions. This study aims to investigate the Islamic banks systemic risk contagion with major banks from China and India.

Design/methodology/approach

Having the option pricing theory in the backdrop, the authors calculated three different distance to risk measurements (default, insolvency and capital). The authors have included top six listed globally influential Islamic banks, top seven Indian banks and top eight Chinese banks based on their net asset value. They then measured the banks’ extreme shocks based on the extreme value theory by using the logistic regression model. These extreme shocks helped the authors to map the spillover among the selected banks from multiple regions.

Findings

The authors have found strong evidences of directional risk spillover among the banks in this sample. Islamic banks are receiving a significant risk spillover from the other sample banks but transmitting less toward the other banks from India and China. Hence, there is strong one-directional risk contagion toward the Islamic banks in the study sample.

Practical implications

This research would be particularly useful to the regulators and bankers from emerging and Islamic markets to understand the conniving nature of the crisis by effectively mapping the source, destination and implementation of the shock transmission mechanism of the potential financial contagion.

Originality/value

Even though the corresponding banking among the top Islamic banks from the Middle East and Southeast Asian countries, and banks from India and China, is on the rise, the assessment of risk among these banks has been limited. In particular, the authors extended on the extreme value theory to focus on the wider impact of spillover, including significant direction of contagion from non-Islamic banks to Islamic banks.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

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Article
Publication date: 9 November 2018

Ajaya Kumar Panda, Swagatika Nanda, Vipul Kumar Singh and Satish Kumar

The purpose of this study is to examine the evidences of leverage effects on the conditional volatility of exchange rates because of asymmetric innovations and its…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to examine the evidences of leverage effects on the conditional volatility of exchange rates because of asymmetric innovations and its spillover effects among the exchange rates of selected emerging and growth-leading economies.

Design/methodology/approach

The empirical analysis uses the sign bias test and asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models to capture the leverage effects on conditional volatility of exchange rates and also uses multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) model to address volatility spillovers among the studied exchange rates.

Findings

The study finds substantial impact of asymmetric innovations (news) on the conditional volatility of exchange rates, where Russian Ruble is showing significant leverage effect followed by Indian Rupee. The exchange rates depict significant mean spillover effects, where Rupee, Peso and Ruble are strongly connected; Real, Rupiah and Lira are moderately connected; and Yuan is the least connected exchange rate within the sample. The study also finds the assimilation of information in foreign exchanges and increased spillover effects in the post 2008 periods.

Practical implications

The results probably have the implications for international investment and asset management. Portfolio managers could use this research to optimize their international portfolio. Policymakers such as central banks may find the study useful to monitor and design interventions strategies in foreign exchange markets keeping an eye on the nature of movements among these exchange rates.

Originality/value

This is one of the few empirical research studies that aim to explore the leverage effects on exchange rates and their volatility spillovers among seven emerging and growth-leading economies using advanced econometric methodologies.

Details

Journal of Financial Economic Policy, vol. 11 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1757-6385

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Article
Publication date: 18 September 2019

Mouna Abdelhedi and Mouna Boujelbène-Abbes

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the volatility spillover between the Chinese stock market, investor’s sentiment and oil market, specifically during…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the volatility spillover between the Chinese stock market, investor’s sentiment and oil market, specifically during the 2014‒2016 turmoil period.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used the daily and monthly China market price index, oil-price index and composite index of Chinese investor’s sentiment. The authors first use the DCC GARCH model in order to study the correlation between variables. Second, the authors use a continuous wavelet decomposition technique so as to capture both time- and frequency-varying features of co-movement variables. Finally, the authors examine the spillover effects by estimating the BEKK GARCH model.

Findings

The wavelet coherency results indicate a substantial co-movement between oil and Chinese stock markets in the periods of high volatility. BEKK GARCH model outcomes confirm this relation and report the noteworthy bidirectional transmission of volatility between oil market shocks and the Chinese investor’s sentiment, chiefly in the crisis period. These results support the behavioral theory of contagion and highlight that the Chinese investor’s sentiment is a channel through which shocks are transmitted between the oil and Chinese equity markets. Thus, these results are important for Chinese authorities that should monitor the investor’s sentiment to better control the interaction between financial and real markets.

Originality/value

This study makes three major contributions to the existing literature. First, it pays attention to the recent 2015 Chinese stock market bumble. Second, it has gone some way toward enhancing our understanding of the volatility spillover between the investor’s sentiment, investor’s sentiment variation, oil prices and stock market returns (variables of interest) during oil and stock market crises. Third, it uses the continuous wavelet decomposition technique since it reveals the linkage between variables of interest at different time horizons.

Details

International Journal of Emerging Markets, vol. 15 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-8809

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Article
Publication date: 1 April 2014

Achraf Ghorbel, Mouna Abbes Boujelbene and Younes Boujelbene

This paper aims to investigate empirical evidence of behavioral contagion between oil market, US market and stock markets of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries…

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate empirical evidence of behavioral contagion between oil market, US market and stock markets of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries, during the oil shock and US financial crisis period of 2008-2009, after controlling for fundamentals-driven co-movements.

Design/methodology/approach

To examine the volatility spillover among oil market and stock markets, the conditional variance of the trivariate BEKK-GARCH model includes three variables: oil returns, US index returns, and the respective individual market returns of 22 oil-importing and exporting countries. The authors estimate the time-varying correlation coefficients between the prediction error of oil market and each stock index. Also, the authors estimate the time-varying correlation coefficients between the prediction error of US market and each stock index.

Findings

The estimation of the trivariate BEKK-GARCH model for VIX, oil market and 23 stock markets of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries suggests the volatility spillover of American investor sentiment to stock market and oil market returns. To capture the pure contagion effects between oil market and stock markets, the authors estimate the forecasting errors of time-varying parameter using the Kalman independently of macroeconomic fundamentals factors. The authors analyze the dynamic correlation between forecasting errors of oil price returns and stock indices returns. The authors show a sharp increase in time-varying correlation coefficients during the oil crisis and US financial crisis period of 2008-2009, which provides strong evidence of herding contagion between oil market and stock markets during the turmoil period.

Originality/value

This paper makes an original contribution in identifying the behavioral contagion between oil market, US market and stock markets of oil-importing and exporting countries especially during the oil shock and US financial crisis period of 2008-2009. Specifically, the authors consider investor sentiment and herding bias to explain the volatility transmission between oil and stock market returns.

Details

International Journal of Energy Sector Management, vol. 8 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1750-6220

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Article
Publication date: 21 August 2017

Haoshen Hu

This paper aims to investigate the impact of sovereign rating signals on domestic banks’ stock returns in a European context.

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to investigate the impact of sovereign rating signals on domestic banks’ stock returns in a European context.

Design/methodology/approach

The author uses an event study technique to measure short-term bank stock abnormal returns that result from domestic positive or negative sovereign rating events. Then, test results from the univariate event studies are further scrutinised with the bank- and sovereign-related factors related to cross-sectional variations in abnormal bank returns.

Findings

The univariate results show that positive sovereign rating events do not lead to significant bank stock price reactions, while negative events are associated with negative share price effects on domestic banks. The multivariate regression results for the subsample of negative rating events show that the degrees of contagion effects depend on which credit rating agency issues the signal, on whether the events are preceded by other negative sovereign rating signals, and in some cases on the sovereign’s initial rating level and on the bank’s liquidity ratio, profitability level and size.

Originality/value

The study improves the test procedures used by Caselli et al. (2016) and sheds light on the bank valuation effect induced by massive negative sovereign rating signals during the crisis period. The results highlight the share price effect of sovereign events and address political implications of introducing risk weights for sovereign debts.

Details

The Journal of Risk Finance, vol. 18 no. 4
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1526-5943

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Article
Publication date: 10 April 2018

Taicir Mezghani and Mouna Boujelbène

This study aims to investigate the transmission of shock between the oil market and the Islamic and conventional stock markets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to investigate the transmission of shock between the oil market and the Islamic and conventional stock markets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries during the oil shocks of 2008 and 2014.

Design/methodology/approach

This study uses two models. First, the dynamic conditional correlation–generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic model has been used to capture the fundamental contagion effects between the oil market and the Islamic and conventional stock markets during the tranquil and turmoil-crisis periods of 2008-2014. Second, the filter of Kalman has been used to capture the effects of pure contagion between the oil market and the GCC Islamic and conventional stock markets. The authors analyze the dynamic correlation between forecasting errors of oil returns and stock returns of GCC Islamic and GCC conventional indices.

Findings

The main findings of this investigation are: first, the estimation of the dynamic conditional correlation– generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic model for oil market and the Islamic and conventional stock markets proves that the Islamic and conventional stock markets and oil market displayed a significant increase in the dynamic correlation during the turmoil period, from mid-2008 and mid-2014. This proves the existence of contagion between the markets studied. Second, the authors analyze the dynamic correlation between forecasting errors of oil returns and stock returns of GCC Islamic and GCC conventional indices. They show a strong increase in the correlation coefficients between the oil market and the conventional GCC stock markets, and between the conventional and Islamic GCC stock markets during the oil crisis of 2014. However, there is no change in regime in the figure of the correlation coefficient between the oil market and the GCC Islamic stock markets during the 2008 financial crisis. This pure contagion is mainly attributed to the herding bias in 2014 oil crisis.

Originality/value

This study contributes to identifying the contribution of herding bias on the volatility transmission between the oil markets, and the GCC Islamic and conventional stock market, especially during two controversial shocks: the 2008 oil-price increase and the 2014 oil drop.

Details

International Journal of Islamic and Middle Eastern Finance and Management, vol. 11 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8394

Keywords

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