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Open Access
Article
Publication date: 16 July 2019

Manzoor Hassan Malik and Nirmala Velan

The purpose of this paper is to investigate both long-run and short-run dynamics among the software and services export, investment in information technology (IT) and GDP in India…

2996

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate both long-run and short-run dynamics among the software and services export, investment in information technology (IT) and GDP in India and to investigate the direction of the relationship among the given three macro-economic variables.

Design/methodology/approach

The time series data have been taken to investigate the long-run relationship exists among the variables. Annual data were collected from the NASSCOM Annual Reports, Planning Commission of India and Reserve Bank of India during the period 1980–2016. Cointegration and vector error correction model have been used for analyzing the causal relationship among investment in IT, software exports and GDP in India.

Findings

Cointegration results confirm that software and services export, investment in IT and GDP are cointegrated, implying that there exists the long-run equilibrium relationship among the given three macro-economic variables. Similarly, vector error correction mechanism Granger causality results hold that there is uni-directional long-run causality running from software and services export and investment in IT to GDP, implying that software and services export is an important determinant of economic growth in India.

Research limitations/implications

The limitations of the paper are generalization of the results and proxy variable for IT investments.

Practical implications

The paper has implications for the expansion of market concentration, diversification of software and service exports, and investments in R&D for increasing competitiveness of the industry in the global market.

Originality/value

This paper focuses on originality in the analysis of the relationship among the given variables software exports, investment in the IT sector and GDP in India. All the work has been done in original by the authors and the work used have been acknowledged properly.

Details

International Trade, Politics and Development, vol. 3 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2586-3932

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 July 2021

Manzoor Hassan Malik

The aim of this paper is to make a descriptive exploratory effort to discern the role of IT exports in India's macro-economic indicators, like national income, employment and…

2536

Abstract

Purpose

The aim of this paper is to make a descriptive exploratory effort to discern the role of IT exports in India's macro-economic indicators, like national income, employment and balance of payment in the post-Liberalization, Privatization and Globalization strategy in the 1990s. The paper also explores the vital historical developments of various dimensions of IT, such as its export growth, major software and services exports destinations, compositions of IT exports and domestic growth in India.

Design/methodology/approach

This study is based on secondary data, which were collected from Balance of Payment Statistics Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM),rtd and Department of Electronics and Information Technology (DEITY). This study has used descriptive analysis and growth models for studying the objectives. Major IT sector dimensions, such as total output, exports revenue, domestic revenue, gross domestic product, employment and exports of the software and service industry, have been examined for the period 1991–2016.

Findings

The findings suggest that over the last 26 years, the information technology industry's economic footprint has extended by more than seven times. Over the same period, direct employment in the information technology sector increased at an average growth rate of around 17%. Software and services exports earn, on average, about three times greater than the other three major services of India's current account of the balance of payment.

Originality/value

This study focuses on originality in examining the role of IT exports in India's macro-economic indicators economic reforms of the 1990s and also explores the historical developments of various dimensions of IT exports and domestic growth in India. All the work has been done in original by the authors, and the work used has been acknowledged properly.

Details

International Trade, Politics and Development, vol. 5 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2586-3932

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 July 2016

Parijat Upadhyay and Saikat Ghosh Roy

The information technology (IT) sector in India is the leading exporter from the service sector domain and also is a significant contributor to the overall export kitty of India…

1075

Abstract

Purpose

The information technology (IT) sector in India is the leading exporter from the service sector domain and also is a significant contributor to the overall export kitty of India. The IT sector’s contribution in total Indian exports (merchandise plus services) increased from less than 4 percent in FY1998-1999 to about 25 percent in FY2011-2012 as per IT industry nodal body National Association of Software and Services Companies and the central bank of the country, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). As this industry earns most of its revenue in foreign currencies it is exposed to the foreign exchange risks. The purpose of this paper is to validate the macro-economic theory that depreciation in domestic currency boosts export as it makes domestic good and services cheaper and appreciation in domestic currency deters export as it makes domestic good and services costlier. The authors are validating this theory for Indian rupee and keeping software services export in the focus.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study the authors have done the multiple regression analysis on the obtained time-series data. The research was totally based on the secondary data from Quarter1 (April-June) of FY 2000-2001 to Quarter4 (January-March) of FY 2011-2012. It comprises of data for 48 consecutive quarters. The authors have taken the growth rate, so the final data set consist of data of 47 quarters. The main source of data are published data by RBI. Data have been collected for export of software services, merchandise export, real effective exchange rate, US-dollar-Indian rupee exchange rate, gross domestic product of India and selected countries.

Findings

Data analysis leads the authors to the following findings: real effective exchange rate has no significant impact on software services export; US-dollar-Indian rupee exchange rate has no significant impact on software services export; external gross domestic product growth has no significant impact on software services export; and gross domestic product growth of India has no significant impact on software services export. The results obtained from multiple regression analysis are also supported by the results obtained from Granger Causality test. It does not identify any single factor as a major cause of software export. Results shows that the external GDP is having the statistically significant impact on the software export but the low value of R2 denotes that the impact is very low.

Originality/value

There are no published studies available which has attempted similar kind of an approach to study using aggregated export data and other macro-economic variables like real effective exchange rate (REER) and GDP growth rate. All previous literatures used REER to measure the impact of the exchange rate on export.

Details

Benchmarking: An International Journal, vol. 23 no. 5
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-5771

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 6 May 2020

Manzoor Hassan Malik and Nirmala Velan

The aims of the paper are to investigate IT software and service export function for India. First, cointegration tests have been used to investigate the long-run equilibrium…

8837

Abstract

Purpose

The aims of the paper are to investigate IT software and service export function for India. First, cointegration tests have been used to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationship of the given variables. Second, long-run coefficients and associated error correction mechanism are estimated.

Design/methodology/approach

Annual time series data on IT software and service exports, human capital, exchange rate, investment in IT, external demand and openness index have been used for the present study during the period 1980–2017. The data are collected from the National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM), Planning Commission of India, University Grants Commission (UGC) of India, real effective exchange rate (REER) database and World Bank development indicators. Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is used to analyze both short-run and long-run dynamic behaviour of economic variables with appropriate asymptotic inferences.

Findings

Results of the analysis show the stable long-run equilibrium relationship among the given variables. It is found that external demand, exchange rate, human capital and openness index have a substantial long-run impact on the IT software and service exports. We also found that the coefficient of error correction term is negative and significant at 1% of the level of significance, which confirms the existence of stable long-run relationship which means adjustment will take place when there is a short-run deviation to its long-run equilibrium after a shock.

Research limitations/implications

There may be other determinants of software and service exports apart from those considered by the present study. Due to the non-availability of data, the study considers only important determinants that determine the software and service exports in India. The IT exports are an emerging and dynamic field of economic activity and the rate of change is so rapid that the relevance of individual factors may change over time. The study period is also limited to available data.

Practical implications

The paper has implications for achieving sustainability in IT software and service exports growth. It is recommended that policies directed at improving the performance of IT software and service exports should largely consider the long-run behaviour of these variables.

Originality/value

This paper focuses on originality in the analysis of the relationship among the given variables including IT software and service exports, human capital, exchange rate, investment in IT, external demand and openness index in India. All the work has been done in original by the authors, and the work used has been acknowledged properly.

Details

International Trade, Politics and Development, vol. 4 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2586-3932

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 30 September 2014

Manzoor Hassan Malik and Showkat Hassan Malik

The aims of this paper are twofold. First, the trends and patterns in key variables of performance of sample software companies during the study period are overviewed. Second, the…

Abstract

Purpose

The aims of this paper are twofold. First, the trends and patterns in key variables of performance of sample software companies during the study period are overviewed. Second, the determinants of information technology (IT) export across the sample companies during the period of economic slowdown have been analyzed.

Design/methodology/approach

Secondary data have been used in the study. Regression analysis is concerned with the study of the dependence of one variable, the dependent variable, on one or more other variables, the explanatory variables, with a view to estimating and/or predicting the mean or average value of the former in terms of the known or fixed values of the latter. The data collected through survey were scrutinized, and statistical software were used for analysis. The variables documented in the study include the exports, capacity utilization, profits, exchange rate and dummy for recession, dummy for countries of export.

Findings

The Indian IT sector was set for smaller growth due to global economic slowdown. Large IT service players were able to some extent cope with tighter client spends, but it was smaller IT companies which were facing the severe heat. Production of sample companies decreased at an average of 34 per cent in 2008. The profits of the sample companies have decreased by 34.34 and 78.67 per cent, respectively, during 2008. In case of determinants of software exports, it is observed that capacity utilization is positively related to exports. The estimated mean of exports increases by about 1.370.

Originality/value

This paper focuses on originality in the sphere of scientific work. Secondary data have been used in the study. The data were collected from the Annual Reports of four randomly selected software companies. Both face-to-face interview and on-line survey based on a structured questionnaire to the sample companies were used to collect the data. All the work has been done in original by the authors and the work used has been acknowledged properly.

Details

Journal of Science & Technology Policy Management, vol. 5 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2053-4620

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 4 July 2016

Manzoor Hassan Malik and Nirmala Velan

The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of trends of Indian information technology and business processing management (IT-BPM) sector and to analyse the determinants…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present an overview of trends of Indian information technology and business processing management (IT-BPM) sector and to analyse the determinants of IT-BPM sector during the period 1991-2014.

Design/methodology/approach

The study is based on annual data collected from National Association of Software and Service Companies and Department of Electronic and Information Technology for the period 1991 to 2014. The methodology adopted for studying the objectives are simple averages, percentages, ratios, growth rates, graphs prepared on the basis of data from the IT-BPM sector and regression analysis. Trends and patterns in key variables, such as total revenue, domestic revenue, export revenue, employment and exports of the IT-BPM sector have been examined. Factors influencing IT-BPM export growth have been analysed using ordinary least square multiple regression model, with growth rates of gross domestic product (GDP), labour productivity, exchange rate and previous year’s export, as the explanatory variables.

Findings

The export revenue from IT-BPM sector increased continuously over the years, at an average growth rate of 36.60 per cent during the period 1991 to 2014. Similarly, domestic revenue of IT-BPM sector also increased, but at a lower growth rate. This is because domestic market in India is captured by multinational giants against Indian firms, which do not possess full comparative advantage in the case of IT-BPM sector. Indian firms are producing low skill activities required for production, mainly concentrated only in the export sector. Direct employment, excluding hardware from IT-BPM sector, has grown at an average rate of 18.08 per cent over the study period. The determinants of IT-BPM exports indicated previous year’s export demand to be significantly contributing the highest to export growth rate. This was followed by GDP growth rate, implying that overall growth of the economy leads to significant increase in export growth. Increased labour productivity followed next in significantly encouraging export growth.

Research limitations/implications

Generalization of the results may not be possible, as Indian conditions and policies vary.

Practical implications

The paper has implications for the expansion of domestic market, diversification of trade and products, innovations for increasing competitiveness and sustainability in the global market in the wake of stiff competitions from new competitors.

Originality/value

This paper focuses on originality in analysis of determinants of export growth.

Details

Journal of Science and Technology Policy Management, vol. 7 no. 2
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2053-4620

Keywords

Book part
Publication date: 23 September 2005

Sumit K. Kundu and Maija Renko

In explaining international expansion and performance, the traditional explanation in international business literature has mainly offered country, and firm-level structural…

Abstract

In explaining international expansion and performance, the traditional explanation in international business literature has mainly offered country, and firm-level structural explanations for performance. Moreover, this literature has been biased toward larger, established multinational manufacturing companies (Dunning, 1958; Hymer, 1960; Aharoni, 1966; Vernon, 1966). This was understandable as, for much of the 20th century, manufacturing occupied the dominant share of the economy. However, by the early 1960s, the service sector already accounted for more than half of the domestic economic activity in developed nations. Today, even in international operations, the share of services is rapidly increasing. For example, the share of services in U.S. exports in 1997 had grown to 27%, and to 16% in U.S. imports (Contractor, 1999). Moreover, in sectors such as information technology, telecommunications or biotechnology, recent years have seen a proliferation of entrepreneurial start-up companies, where the characteristics of their founders and leaders appear to have as much, or greater, impact on performance, as traditional firm-level explanations. Since the late 1980s, the growth of venture capital markets and rise in entrepreneurship have been observed in technology-driven industries (The Economist, 1993; Gupta, 1989; Mamis, 1989). Could entrepreneurial and leadership factors assume greater importance in explaining performance, especially international performance, of younger companies in such sectors? This is the broad hypothesis pursued in this study.

Details

International Entrepreneurship
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-0-76231-227-6

Article
Publication date: 19 June 2019

Manzoor Hassan Malik and Nirmala Velan

The purpose of this paper is to present the growth trends in IT industry after the period of globalization in 1990s and to investigate the short-run and long-run dynamics between…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to present the growth trends in IT industry after the period of globalization in 1990s and to investigate the short-run and long-run dynamics between IT software and service exports, globalization and economic growth in India.

Design/methodology/approach

Annual time series data on IT exports, net national product and openness index have been collected from National Association of Software and Service Companies, the Reserve Bank of India database on Indian economy and the World Bank for the present study. The methodology adopted for studying the first objective are growth trend models, descriptive statistics and graphs prepared on the basis of data from the IT sector. Growth trends in key performance variables, such as total output, export, domestic output and employment have been analyzed. In the case of second objective, vector auto regression model has been used based on variance decomposition and impulse response function to capture the short-run and long-run dynamics between IT exports, globalization and economic growth in India.

Findings

Results of the growth trend model show the relative growth performance of software services receipts shows its strong advancement compared to the other sub-components of current account of balance of payments of India. It is found that economic growth responds positively to the shocks in IT exports and openness of economy. Further, IT software and service exports and openness index contribute to economic growth more in the long-run rather than in the short run.

Research limitations/implications

The IT software and service exports is dynamic field of economic activity amid heavy dependence on both domestic and external economic and political environment; hence, the rate of change is so rapid, and the relevance of factors may change over time.

Practical implications

The paper has implications for achieving sustainability in IT software and service exports growth. It is recommended that economic growth can be enhanced by implementing policies that not only improve the efficiency of the sector but also focus on optimization of the potential of the Indian IT industry.

Originality/value

This paper focuses on originality in delineating the growth trends and analysis of capturing the short-run and long-run dynamics between IT exports, globalization and economic growth in India.

Details

Journal of Science and Technology Policy Management, vol. 10 no. 3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 2053-4620

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 1 August 1995

Jim Bell

Presents the findings of a comparative study into the exportbehaviour and internationalization of small computer software firms inFinland, Ireland and Norway. These findings…

15810

Abstract

Presents the findings of a comparative study into the export behaviour and internationalization of small computer software firms in Finland, Ireland and Norway. These findings challenge many of the underlying assumptions of conventional internationalization “stage” theories and lead to the conclusion that such theories do not adequately reflect the internationalization process among small computer software firms.

Details

European Journal of Marketing, vol. 29 no. 8
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0309-0566

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 April 2013

Barry Eichengreen and Poonam Gupta

This paper aims to survey India's experience with exporting services. The authors seek to show that the country's experience is unique in that modern tradable services are a…

1335

Abstract

Purpose

This paper aims to survey India's experience with exporting services. The authors seek to show that the country's experience is unique in that modern tradable services are a significantly larger share of GDP than in other countries at comparable levels of economic development. This has not always been the case, however; India's out‐performance is limited to recent years. Policy initiatives, from trade reform to liberalization of domestic industrial and service sectors, were important for jump‐starting the process.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper reviews the literature and evidence. It takes a close look at the Indian service sector and specifically information‐technology‐related (IT) services, seeking to situate the growth in service exports from India in its comparative context. The authors document the role that exports of services have played in the performance of the Indian economy in recent years. They seek to pinpoint the “take‐off” in Indian services output and establish the extent to which the country's success in exporting services is exceptional from an international point of view. And they discuss the extent to which India's performance as an exporter of services has been shaped by policies liberalizing the service sector itself and by liberalization of the manufacturing sector.

Findings

Panel and country‐specific regressions for a cross section of countries point to the importance of a range of additional factors: overall economic development, communications infrastructure, access to foreign technology, and spillovers between the merchandise and service exports. Importantly, however, these factors, jointly or individually, do not wipe out the significance of a dummy variable for India. India, evidently, is a significant outlier as an exporter of services, and even more so as the period proceeds.

Originality/value

The paper discusses the country's major policy initiatives, such as trade reforms and liberalization of domestic industrial and service sectors, and their importance for jump‐starting the process of services growth and its exports. Regression results show that, in addition to these policies, other factors such as overall economic development, communications infrastructure, access to foreign technology, and spillovers between the merchandise and service exports were important as well.

Details

Indian Growth and Development Review, vol. 6 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1753-8254

Keywords

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