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Structural risks dampen ‘big tech’ prospects

Location:

INT

The pandemic-induced spurt in online activity and tech valuations is now normalising

Some forms of social distancing may persist for years

Location:

INT

A growing body of research shows that only 5% of Western populations have had COVID-19

East Asia’s COVID-19 success will be hard to replicate

Location:

EAST ASIA

Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have all been relatively successful in dealing with COVID-19

Global house prices have firm but fragile momentum

Location:

INT

Advanced markets’ average real house prices are almost back to the pre-2008/09 crisis peak; emerging markets’ are ahead

Land misuse will pose long-term security threats

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INTERNATIONAL

Food insecurity, natural disasters, poverty and population displacement could all worsen, exacerbating conflict risks

AI proliferation will have serious environmental costs

Location:

INT

Recent breakthroughs in AI will intensify the digital economy’s environmental footprint

Brexit will exacerbate UK regional inequality

Location:

UNITED KINGDOM

Prosperous regions will be most affected by Brexit but will also recover faster, similarly to after the 2008-09 crisis

Insecurity will hamper Ramaphosa’s state overhaul

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SOUTH AFRICA

Recent data show a spike in ‘contact’ crimes, while anger over gender-based violence is growing

Pride and politics will push Turkey to recession

Location:

TURKEY

A sudden deterioration in US-Turkish relations has plunged Turkey into a debt and liquidity crisis

Long-term refugee problems may mould the Middle East

Location:

MIDDLE EAST

Refugees and IDPs who do not return home within six months have a high probability of protracted displacement