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1 – 10 of 352Arif Jetha, Ali Shamaee, Emile Tompa, Peter Smith, Ute Bültmann, Silvia Bonaccio, Lori B. Tucker, Cameron Norman, Cristina G. Banks and Monique A.M. Gignac
The world of work is changing and creating challenges and opportunities for the employment inclusion of young people with disabilities. In this article, the perceptions held by…
Abstract
Purpose
The world of work is changing and creating challenges and opportunities for the employment inclusion of young people with disabilities. In this article, the perceptions held by young adults with disabilities regarding participation in the future of work are examined.
Design/methodology/approach
One-on-one interviews were conducted with Canadian young adults (ages 18–36 years) living with a disability. Participants were asked about their thoughts regarding the impact of the changing nature of work on their labor market involvement and career aspirations. A thematic analysis was performed to identify and examine emergent salient themes.
Findings
In total, 22 young adults were interviewed; over half held secure employment. Career aspirations and work-related decisions were primarily shaped by a participant's health needs. The future of work was seen as a more proximal determinant to employment. Digital technologies were expected to impact working conditions and create barriers and facilitators to employment. Participants who indicated being securely employed held positive expectations regarding the impact of digital technology on their work. Participants working precariously held negative appraisals regarding the impact of digital technologies on employment opportunities. The role of technological and soft skills was critical to participating in a labor market reliant on advanced technology. Participants reported barriers to developing job skills related to their disability and their work arrangements.
Originality/value
This research highlights the importance of considering changes in the future of work, especially the digital transformation of the economy, in the design of initiatives which promote the employment inclusion of young adults with disabilities. Despite the significance of the changing nature of work, supporting health needs and encouraging access to secure work arrangements also remain paramount.
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Matylda Awedyk and Agnieszka Niezgoda
The purpose of this paper is to present the changes in political and socioeconomic conditions after 25 years of transformation and how it provided to adopt new methodology in…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to present the changes in political and socioeconomic conditions after 25 years of transformation and how it provided to adopt new methodology in tourism planning. It shows the possibilities offered by the use of the foresight process in planning the development of tourism in Poland. Since one of the main foresight goals is to identify trends, the paper takes attempt to verify trends that occurred in Poland after 1989 and if they have now and will have in the near future influence on Polish tourism. Detailed objective is to characterize the systemic transformation and its impact on the tourism economy.
Design/methodology/approach
Paper is the review, which used literature, legislation and strategic documents query. It also includes comparative analysis.
Findings
The analysis of the political and economic changes that have taken place in Poland over the last 25 years shows that they were positive for the development of tourism base. The impact of globalization and global trends is now clearly noticeable also in Poland. Political and economic changes allow the use of foresight methodology in studies on the future of tourism while maintaining its main attributes: anticipation, participation, action, networking, vision.
Research limitations/implications
The analysis included the impact of political changes and social trends on the tourist economy. Proposals that show the positive aspects of these changes relate to tourism and present extensive opportunities to create scenarios, both at the national and regional levels.
Practical implications
The analysis forms the basis for the activities of tourism entities in Poland. It shows the characteristics for the future of the tourism market particularly the demand side.
Social implications
The analysis of changes in systemic and social trends enables anticipation of changes in tourism as a social phenomenon.
Originality/value
The paper presents the historical basis for the development of tourism in Poland after political changes in relation to the planning of tourism by using the methodology of foresight. It also presents these phenomena and social trends that have an impact on the development of tourism.
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Tadhg O’Mahony, Jyrki Luukkanen, Jarmo Vehmas and Jari Roy Lee Kaivo-oja
The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking…
Abstract
Purpose
The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight.
Design/methodology/approach
This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature.
Findings
Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights.
Research limitations/implications
To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk.
Practical implications
While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making.
Social implications
Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios.
Originality/value
To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.
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Himani Upadhyay, Ilan Kelman, Lingaraj G J, Arabinda Mishra, Cheney Shreve and Robert Stojanov
This paper aims to present a critical review of some literature on climate change and migration through conceptualizing and contextualizing the linkages between the two topics…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to present a critical review of some literature on climate change and migration through conceptualizing and contextualizing the linkages between the two topics. Much literature on links between climate change and migration tends to downplay ambiguities in the terms and the limited empirical evidence. Conceptualizing refers to the knowledge gaps and the need to understand and detail (even if not agreeing on) conceptual issues such as terminology, definitions, linkages, drivers, thresholds, implications, data requirements and methodologies. Contextualizing refers to understanding the climate change and migration debate within wider topical and geographical contexts. Results identify major qualitative and quantitative gaps. Qualitatively, limited material exists on why people react differently to similar environmental stressors and why certain outcomes may arise. Quantitatively, credible and verifiable measures are not always available for assessing the climate change impacts on migration. This paper recommends a stratified, multi-disciplinary approach to facilitate policies regarding climate change and migration connections.
Design/methodology/approach
Illustrative literature review, clustering important themes found in published research and policy documents. First, qualitative aspects are covered, particularly in terms of definitions and terminology. Second, quantitative aspects are detailed, particularly in terms of data available and estimates made. Further, the paper is organized around two distinct areas, i.e. conceptualizing and contextualizing climate change and migration links.
Findings
Results identify major qualitative and quantitative gaps. Qualitatively, limited material exists on why people react differently to similar environmental stressors and why certain outcomes may arise. Quantitatively, credible and verifiable measures are not always available for assessing the climate change impacts on migration. This paper recommends a stratified, multi-disciplinary approach to facilitate policies regarding climate change and migration connections.
Originality/value
Without being comprehensive in the literature covered, this paper provided a critical overview and synthesis of climate change and migration work through the lens of conceptualization and contextualization. Major gaps in the literature were identified through an illustrative, not complete, review. Qualitative and quantitative aspects were covered including definitions, terminology, data available and estimates being made.
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Anna-Greta Nyström and Valtteri Kaartemo
The purpose of this paper is to develop Delphi methodology toward a holistic method for forecasting market change. Delphi methodology experienced its culmination in marketing…
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to develop Delphi methodology toward a holistic method for forecasting market change. Delphi methodology experienced its culmination in marketing research during the 1970s–1980s, but still has much to offer to both marketing scholars and practitioners in contexts where future market changes are associated with ambiguity and uncertainty.
Design/methodology/approach
This study revives the Delphi methodology by exemplifying how a recently developed framework on market change can be combined with the Delphi technique for data collection to support forecasting activities and research. The authors demonstrate the benefits of the improved methodology in an empirical study on the impact of the fifth generation of wireless communications technologies (5G) on the Finnish media market.
Findings
The developed methodological approach aids marketing scholars in categorizing and analyzing the data collected for capturing market change; and better guiding experts/respondents to provide holistic projections of future market change. The authors show that using a predefined theoretical framework in combination with the Delphi method for data collection and analysis is beneficial for studying future market change.
Originality/value
This paper develops Delphi methodology and contributes with a novel methodological approach to assessing market change.
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The purpose of this paper is to discuss the scenario planning approach developed and used by the European Tourism Futures Institute (ETFI).
Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to discuss the scenario planning approach developed and used by the European Tourism Futures Institute (ETFI).
Design/methodology/approach
This paper contains the following sections: mission and aims of the research group; epistemological and methodological positioning, conceptual framework and research lines for an applied scenario planning approach.
Findings
This paper highlights the research methodology of the scenario planning group of the European Tourism Research Institute. It provides insight in the research foundations of the scenario planning approach in a tourism context and ETFI's conceptual framework for scenario planning.
Originality/value
The paper provides an insight to how Europe's first tourism futures research centre developed and uses a conceptual framework for scenario planning thus demonstrating best practice success.
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Simon Mair and Angela Druckman
This viewpoint paper addresses the use of sustainability frameworks in embedding education for sustainability into the curriculum of higher education institutions (HEIs). The…
Abstract
Purpose
This viewpoint paper addresses the use of sustainability frameworks in embedding education for sustainability into the curriculum of higher education institutions (HEIs). The purpose of this paper is to explore the paradox that sustainability frameworks must facilitate transformation of existing structures whilst also being well-enough aligned with current conditions to be readily adopted by today’s HEIs.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper proposes a set of four criteria for assessing the suitability of sustainability frameworks for use across the curriculum: relevance to current curricula, language, institutional fit and concept of the future. Using these criteria, this paper assesses how various frameworks align with the current (unsustainable) state of affairs and their transformative potential. The frameworks assessed are: the sustainable development goals (SDGs), the three pillars framework and the capitals approach.
Findings
This paper finds that each of the frameworks has strengths and weaknesses: the SDGs and the capitals approach perform well on alignment but less well on transformational criteria. Conversely, the three pillars framework performs well on transformation criteria but less well on alignment criteria. By applying the criteria set out in this paper, the authors hope those working to embed sustainability into the curricula of HEIs will be better equipped to navigate the tensions presented by sustainability transitions.
Originality/value
Using a novel set of criteria for assessing sustainability frameworks, this paper provides guidance that was previously lacking in education for sustainability professionals who are attempting to embed sustainability into the curriculum at HEIs.
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Štefan Karolčík and Michaela Marková
This research study explores the perceptions of the importance and meaning of innovation in education by qualified teachers. The authors deliberately selected geography teachers…
Abstract
Purpose
This research study explores the perceptions of the importance and meaning of innovation in education by qualified teachers. The authors deliberately selected geography teachers for the research because the extraordinary dynamics of changes and innovations the teacher has to deal with are significantly reflected, particularly in geography teaching.
Design/methodology/approach
The main aim of the research was to determine geography teachers' views on the importance, role and meaning of innovation in teaching. The research group consisted of 12 qualified teachers, and a semistructured interview was chosen as the research method. The research was conducted over six months, from October 2020 to March 2021.
Findings
This research confirmed the interest in introducing innovations into teaching by the teachers interviewed. Teachers mainly think of innovation as new ways of teaching that aim to revive and make teaching more attractive, to increase the motivation of all actors in the learning process. While teachers with more ample teaching experience connect innovations mainly with presentations, education games, and excursions, teachers-beginners and teachers with shorter teaching experience understand innovations mainly as the application of new trends in education, such as research projects and working with GIS and digital technologies. The research confirmed that lectures supported by presentations are the most frequently used teaching method for explaining the geography curriculum in primary and secondary schools. Presentations in which teachers focus on linking relationships and explaining connections more deeply replace existing textbooks and teaching texts for most teachers interviewed.
Research limitations/implications
The number and qualifications of the teachers involved in the research.
Practical implications
Teachers see the quality of the school environment and the education system as the significant barriers to providing better geography education. They often come to innovations through their own study and activities and feel a significant lack of available materials for the practical application of innovations in teaching. They also perceive the support for creation by state authorities and educational institutions as insufficient. Most teachers interviewed would welcome regular training courses and vocational education on the appropriate introduction and use of innovations in the classrooms in the form of practical examples and developed methodologies.
Originality/value
The selection of teachers for the research was deliberate and included active teachers of both genders working in primary and secondary schools. The selected teachers had varying teaching experiences and studied different combinations of teaching subjects with geography.
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Cornelis van Dorsser and Poonam Taneja
The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method…
Abstract
Purpose
The paper aims to present an integrated foresight framework and method to support decision-makers who are confronted with today’s complex and rapidly changing world. The method aims at reducing the degree of uncertainty by addressing the inertia or duration of unfolding trends and by placing individual trends in a broader context.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper presents a three-layered framework and method for assessing megatrends based on their inertia or duration. It suggests that if long-term trends and key future uncertainties are studied in conjunction at a meta-level and placed in a broader multi-layered framework of trends, it can result in new insights.
Findings
The application of the proposed foresight method helps to systematically place a wide range of unrelated trends and key uncertainties in the context of a broader framework of trends, thereby improving the ability to understand the inertia, direction and mutual interaction of these trends.
Research limitations/implications
The elaboration of identified trends and key uncertainties is partly case-specific and subject to interpretation. It is aimed at illustrating the potential use of the framework.
Practical implications
The paper presents a new approach that may, by itself or in combination with existing foresight methods, offer new means for anticipating future developments.
Social implications
The use of the proposed framework has potential to provide better insight in the complexity of today’s rapid-changing world and the major transitions taking place. It aims to result in sharper foresight by reducing epistemic uncertainty for decision-makers.
Originality/value
The paper demonstrates how megatrends, Kondratieff waves and century-long trends can be placed in an integrated framework and analysed in conjunction.
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This paper aims to discuss the roles of social protection in reducing and facilitating climate-induced migration. Social protection gained attention in the international climate…
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to discuss the roles of social protection in reducing and facilitating climate-induced migration. Social protection gained attention in the international climate negotiations with the establishment of the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage. Yet, its potential to address migration, considered as a key issue in the loss and damage debate, has not been sufficiently explored. This paper aims at identifying key characteristics of social protection schemes which could effectively address climate-induced migration and attempts to derive recommendations for policy design.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on the existing literature, the paper links empirical evidence on the effects of social protection to climate-related drivers of migration and the needs of vulnerable populations. This approach allows conceptually identifying characteristics of effective social protection policies.
Findings
Findings indicate that social protection can be part of a proactive approach to managing climate-induced migration both in rural and urban areas. In particular, public work programmes offer solutions to different migration outcomes, from no to permanent migration. Benefits are achieved when programmes explicitly integrate climate change impacts into their design. Social protection can provide temporary support to facilitate migration, in situ adaptation or integration and adaptation in destination areas. It is no substitution for but can help trigger sustainable adaptation solutions.
Originality/value
The paper helps close research gaps regarding the potential roles and channels of social protection for addressing and facilitating climate-induced migration and providing public support in destination, mostly in urban areas.
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