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Article
Publication date: 29 November 2023

Thirawut Phichonsatcha, Nathasit Gerdsri, Duanghathai Pentrakoon and Akkharawit Kanjana-Opas

Indigenous knowledge is an essential element for unveiling the evolutionary journey of socio-culture phenomena. One of the key challenges in foresight exercises is to incorporate…

Abstract

Purpose

Indigenous knowledge is an essential element for unveiling the evolutionary journey of socio-culture phenomena. One of the key challenges in foresight exercises is to incorporate social-culture issues such as culture, lifestyle and behavior (referred as indigenous knowledge) into the study. However, the statistical trends of those factors tend to be either not available or limited unlike the population or economic related factors. The purpose of this study is to present the use of valuable data from indigenous knowledge to enhance the foresight exercise through the better understanding of social dynamics and changes.

Design/methodology/approach

The fragmented form of indigenous knowledge is analyzed and converted into a structured data format and then interpreted to unveil the evolutionary journey of socio-cultural phenomena. This study applies a scenario development method to visualize the results of foresight by comparing before and after the integration of indigenous knowledge. Finally, an assessment was conducted to reflect the value enhancement resulting from the integration of indigenous knowledge into the foresight process.

Findings

With the proposed approach, the foresight study on the future development of Thai food was demonstrated. The findings of this study show that the use of indigenous knowledge on eating behavior, cooking style and food flavor helps improve the alternative scenarios for the future development of Thai foods.

Practical implications

Indigenous knowledge can be applied to develop plausible scenarios and future images in foresight exercises. However, by nature, indigenous knowledge is not well-structured and, therefore, needs to be analyzed and turned into structured data so that it can be interpreted before integrating into the foresight process.

Originality/value

This study is one of few studies addressing the opportunities for integrating indigenous knowledge into foresight process. Indigenous knowledge can unveil the evolution of socio-cultural changes to improve the results of foresight study, especially the cases where statistical data and trends may not be sufficient to foresee future development.

Details

foresight, vol. 26 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 5 June 2023

Tadhg O’Mahony, Jyrki Luukkanen, Jarmo Vehmas and Jari Roy Lee Kaivo-oja

The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking…

Abstract

Purpose

The literature on economic forecasting, is showing an increase in criticism, of the inaccuracy of forecasts, with major implications for economic, and fiscal policymaking. Forecasts are subject to the systemic uncertainty of human systems, considerable event-driven uncertainty, and show biases towards optimistic growth paths. The purpose of this study is to consider approaches to improve economic foresight.

Design/methodology/approach

This study describes the practice of economic foresight as evolving in two separate, non-overlapping branches, short-term economic forecasting, and long-term scenario analysis of development, the latter found in studies of climate change and sustainability. The unique case of Ireland is considered, a country that has experienced both steep growth and deep troughs, with uncertainty that has confounded forecasting. The challenges facing forecasts are discussed, with brief review of the drivers of growth, and of long-term economic scenarios in the global literature.

Findings

Economic forecasting seeks to manage uncertainty by improving the accuracy of quantitative point forecasts, and related models. Yet, systematic forecast failures remain, and the economy defies prediction, even in the near-term. In contrast, long-term scenario analysis eschews forecasts in favour of a set of plausible or possible alternative scenarios. Using alternative scenarios is a response to the irreducible uncertainty of complex systems, with sophisticated approaches employed to integrate qualitative and quantitative insights.

Research limitations/implications

To support economic and fiscal policymaking, it is necessary support advancement in approaches to economic foresight, to improve handling of uncertainty and related risk.

Practical implications

While European Union Regulation (EC) 1466/97 mandates pursuit of improved accuracy, in short-term economic forecasts, there is now a case for implementing advanced foresight approaches, for improved analysis, and more robust decision-making.

Social implications

Building economic resilience and adaptability, as part of a sustainable future, requires both long-term strategic planning, and short-term policy. A 21st century policymaking process can be better supported by analysis of alternative scenarios.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the article is original in considering the application of scenario foresight approaches, in economic forecasting. The study has value in improving the baseline forecast methods, that are fundamental to contemporary economics, and in bringing the field of economics into the heart of foresight.

Details

foresight, vol. 26 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 13 July 2023

Ali Zackery, Mohsen Taheri Demneh and Maryam Ebadi Nejad

Due to the limitations of conventional urban planning, it is essential to develop novel techniques of urban futruing. This paper aimed to use the scenario technique to create four…

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Abstract

Purpose

Due to the limitations of conventional urban planning, it is essential to develop novel techniques of urban futruing. This paper aimed to use the scenario technique to create four plausible narratives of the future of Isfahan. Also, the authors described the problems of city foresight in the Global South.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper chronicles the Schwartzian steps taken to build explorative scenarios of Isfahan City in Iran in 2040. After using a STEEPV (Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political, Value) analysis, the authors prioritized the collected variables by combining influence diagrams, the iceberg metaphor and an expert-based survey. Once the key uncertainties were derived, four scenarios were developed and discussed.

Findings

Through thematic analysis of the official visions of Isfahan’s future and the juxtaposition of these narratives with insight yielded in the scenario-development process, the paper concludes that the Northernness of the prevailing urban imaginaries, uncritical mimetic benchmarking, depoliticization of urban futures and the decorative reductionistic visions colonize urban futures in Isfahan/Iran. Critical/deconstructive city foresight and application of discomfort/ignorance criteria in the generation of scenarios can improve the rigor and quality of city foresight in the Global South.

Originality/value

The application of city foresight in the Global South has been limited. The paper is a step toward bridging this gap and providing some recommendations on how city foresight in the Global South might differ from its counterparts in the Global North.

Details

foresight, vol. 26 no. 1
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 19 December 2023

Ruxin Zhang, Jun Lin, Suicheng Li and Ying Cai

This study aims to explore how to overcome and address the loss of exploratory innovation, thereby achieving greater success in exploratory innovation. This phenomenon of loss…

Abstract

Purpose

This study aims to explore how to overcome and address the loss of exploratory innovation, thereby achieving greater success in exploratory innovation. This phenomenon of loss occurs when enterprises decrease their investment in and engagement with exploratory innovation, ultimately leading to an insufficient amount of such innovation efforts. Drawing on dynamic capabilities, this study investigates the relationship between organizational foresight and exploratory innovation and examines the moderating role of breakthrough orientation/financial orientation.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used survey data collected from 296 Chinese high-tech companies in multiple industries and sectors.

Findings

The evidence produced by this study reveals that three elements of organizational foresight (i.e. environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and integrating capabilities) positively influence exploratory innovation. Furthermore, this positive effect is strengthened in the context of a high-breakthrough orientation. Moreover, the relationships among environmental scanning capabilities, strategic selection capabilities and exploratory innovation become weaker as an enterprise’s financial orientation increases, whereas a strong financial orientation does not affect the relationship between integrating capabilities and exploratory innovation.

Research limitations/implications

Ambidexterity is key to successful enterprise innovation. Compared with exploitative innovation, it is by no means easy to engage in exploratory innovation, which is especially important in high-tech companies. While the loss of exploratory innovation has been observed, few empirical studies have explored ways to promote exploratory innovation more effectively. A key research implication of this study pertains to the role of organizational foresight in the improvement of exploratory innovation in the context of high-tech companies.

Originality/value

This paper contributes to the broader literature on exploratory innovation and organizational foresight and provides practical guidance for high-tech companies regarding ways of avoiding the loss of exploratory innovation and becoming more successful at exploratory innovation.

Details

Journal of Business & Industrial Marketing, vol. 39 no. 13
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0885-8624

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 February 2024

Alexander Chulok, Maxim Kotsemir, Yadviga Radomirova and Sergey Shashnov

The purpose of this study is to create a methodological approach for identifying priority areas for science and technology (S&T) development and its empirical application within…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to create a methodological approach for identifying priority areas for science and technology (S&T) development and its empirical application within the city of Moscow. This research uncovers a wide range of multicultural and multidisciplinary global trends that will affect the development of major cities in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including the inherent complexity of urban contexts, demographic and socioeconomic trends, as well as scientific and ecological factors.

Design/methodology/approach

The methodological approach is based on classic foresight instruments. Its novelty lays in the blending of qualitative and quantitative methods specially selected as the most appropriate for the identification of S&T areas in an era of complexity and uncertainty, including horizon scanning, bibliometric analysis, expert surveys and the construction of composite indexes with respect to the scope and resources of the research and the selected object for empirical application – Moscow, which is one of the world’s largest megacities. The analysis was performed for the period of 2009–2018 and expert procedures took place in 2019.

Findings

As a result, 25 global trends were identified, evaluated and discussed over the course of an expert survey and subsequent expert events. Ten priority areas of S&T development were determined, including 62 technological sub-areas within them and the most important market niches for all identified technological sub-areas, which could be useful for the world’s megacities. The results of this study are illustrated using the construction sector. Based on the conducted research and results, a list of recommendations on S&T policy measures and instruments were suggested, including the creation of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which by the end of 2023 contained more than 6,000 projects and initiatives, selected using the findings of this investigation.

Originality/value

This research contributes to the existing literature and research agenda of setting priorities for S&T development and shows how it can be done for a megacity. The blended foresight methodology that was created within the study satisfies the criteria of scientific originality, is repeatable for any interested researcher, is applicable to any other city in the world and demonstrates its high efficiency in empirical application. It could be used for creating new agenda items in S&T policy, setting S&T priorities for a megacity and integrating the results into decision-making processes. This study provides recommendations on the further implementation of the designed methodology and results into a policymaking system. Moreover, the example of the Moscow Innovation Cluster, which was created based on the results of our research, demonstrates these recommendations’ practical significance in real life, which is quite valuable. The limitation of this study is that it is not devoted to urban planning issues directly or the promotion of R&D areas; it is about setting promising S&T priorities in an era of complexity and uncertainty for megacities.

Open Access
Article
Publication date: 11 March 2024

Claudio Marciano, Alex Fergnani and Alberto Robiati

The purpose of this study is to propose an innovative and efficient process in urban policy-making that combines a divergent and creative method with a convergent and strategic…

Abstract

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to propose an innovative and efficient process in urban policy-making that combines a divergent and creative method with a convergent and strategic one. At the same time, the purpose is also to propose a useful innovation to enforce the usability of both methods. On the one hand, mission-oriented policies run the risk of being overly focused on the present and of not being able to develop preparedness in organization. On the other hand, scenario development has the reverse problem it often does not point out how to use scenario narratives to inform and devise short-term strategic actions.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper proposes an innovative methodological approach, the mission-oriented scenarios, which hybridizes Mazzucato's mission-oriented public policy framework with Jim Dator's Manoa school four futures method. The proposed methodological innovation emerges from a urban foresight academic-led project carried out in the context of the Metropolitan City of Turin, Italy, where a first application of the mission-oriented scenarios was tested on six different focal issues (from reindustrialization to cultural policies) and the scenario narratives were used as sources for the grounding of 12 missions and 48 strategic actions towards 2030.

Findings

Mission-oriented scenarios can contribute to the generation of more sustainable and inclusive urban public policies. This methodological proposal is based on an original mix of knowledge exchange procedures borrowed from methodological approaches with different backgrounds: the mission-oriented and the archetypal scenarios. Their conjunction could support the formulation of ambitious yet pragmatic policies, giving a plurality of actors the opportunity to act and establish fruitful and lasting partnerships.

Originality/value

The paper reconstructs one of the first urban foresight projects carried out in a major Italian city by two prestigious universities and exposes a methodological innovation resulting from reflection on the strengths and weaknesses of the project, which opens the door to the development of a new scenario technique.

Details

foresight, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1463-6689

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 12 March 2024

J. Pedro Mendes, Miguel Marques and Carlos Guedes Soares

Organizational technologies can be classified according to the roles they play as either commodity or strategic. Commodity technologies support common operations, while strategic…

Abstract

Purpose

Organizational technologies can be classified according to the roles they play as either commodity or strategic. Commodity technologies support common operations, while strategic technologies address perceived threats to competitiveness, often identified by strategic foresight. These must go through an adoption process before playing an effective role in strategy execution. The adoption process includes known activities, ranging from sourcing (itself from in-house development to turn-key acquisition) to operational integration. This paper aims to reveal strategic technology adoption risks that arise during strategy execution.

Design/methodology/approach

A gradually developed causal loop diagram model, supported by general literature, introduces three general classes of technology adoption risks: mismatched requirements, supplier dependence and unmanaged life cycles.

Findings

Rather than managed, these risks are incurred or avoided depending on decisions made during the adoption process.

Research limitations/implications

Despite the scarce literature coverage for the approach, examples revealing the presence of adoption risks are nevertheless available in the well-documented history of enterprise resource planning (ERP).

Practical implications

Although ERP is presented as a general-purpose strategic technology, the unique business features of maritime container terminals pose serious challenges to its adoption, which provides additional support to the discussion and reinforces the conclusions.

Originality/value

The approach to identifying risks in strategic technology adoption departs from the current risk paradigm in two significant ways. First, it emphasizes policy decision-making rather than external events. Second, it views risks as systemic rather than occurring independently.

Details

Journal of Modelling in Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1746-5664

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 26 June 2023

Franklin Nakpodia, Folajimi Ashiru, Jacqueline Jing You and Oluwasola Oni

Social entrepreneurship (SE) is a complex phenomenon designed to resolve numerous societal challenges while remaining economically viable. However, how social entrepreneurs in…

Abstract

Purpose

Social entrepreneurship (SE) is a complex phenomenon designed to resolve numerous societal challenges while remaining economically viable. However, how social entrepreneurs in developing countries have deployed digital technologies to address communal challenges during the Covid-19 crisis is largely undocumented. This research examines social entrepreneurs' adoption of digital technologies, the multi-level organisational conditions, and associated innovative outcomes of engaging digital technologies.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on the organisational resilience theoretical framework, this research employs a qualitative methodology, comprising 38 semi-structured interviews with Nigerian SE firms, to investigate social entrepreneurs' engagement with digital technologies.

Findings

The study’s findings reveal 19 pathways through which digital technologies enabled organisational resilience outcomes by Nigerian SE firms during the Covid-19 pandemic. This allows the authors to show, via a 3 × 3 matrix, how social entrepreneurs deploy digital technologies to build proximate, dynamic, and continuous resilience in a weak institutional context.

Originality/value

The study’s findings enables the authors to advance the SE – digital technologies – resilience scholarship in a developing economy.

Details

International Journal of Entrepreneurial Behavior & Research, vol. 30 no. 2/3
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 1355-2554

Keywords

Article
Publication date: 28 February 2024

Li Genqiang, Tao Yueying, Meng Yong and Lu Min

Based on cognitive appraisal theory of stress, this study develops an integrated model to examine the double-edged sword effect and boundary conditions of the impact of…

Abstract

Purpose

Based on cognitive appraisal theory of stress, this study develops an integrated model to examine the double-edged sword effect and boundary conditions of the impact of organizational crisis on employee behavior.

Design/methodology/approach

This study collected 672 employees’ data through three stages of longitudinal follow-up. Hierarchical regression analysis and SPSS macro process were used to test the hypotheses.

Findings

The paper finds that organizational crisis induces unethical pro-organizational behavior through enhanced job insecurity and foster taking charge by stimulating career calling. Employee resilience negatively moderates the relationship between organizational crisis and job insecurity as well as the indirect effects of organizational crisis on unethical pro-organizational behavior through job insecurity. Conversely, it positively moderates the association between organizational crisis and career calling and the indirect effects on taking charge through career calling.

Research limitations/implications

This study not only expands the research on the mechanisms of organizational crisis' effects on employees' behaviors but also provides practical guidance for corporate managers on how to respond to organizational crisis.

Practical implications

The following insights are available to organizations and managers: first, this study confirms that organizational crisis can be perceived as threatening stressors that create job insecurity, which in turn leads to pro-organizational unethical behavior. Therefore, managers in organizational crisis should focus on stress regulation and guidance, pay timely attention to changes in the mindset of employees to reduce job insecurity, and strictly prohibit unethical pro-organizational behavior. They should promptly calm and control the atmosphere of panic and anxiety in the organization, do a good job of coordinating the division of labor, reduce personnel conflicts and contradictions, create a good organizational climate and reduce employees' sense of stress and negative perceptions of organizational crisis, thus reducing job insecurity and being able to meet the challenges in a better state. Secondly, this study confirms that employees also perceive organizational crisis as challenges and develop career calling, which in turn inspires proactive change behaviors. This suggests that managers in organizational crisis should promote the positive perception of organizational crisis as challenge, stimulate the career calling of employees in organizational crisis and call on and encourage employees to actively adopt taking charge. Therefore, managers should promptly give employees work affirmation, rewards and punishments, enhance the sense of participation and intrinsic motivation of subordinates, improve self-efficacy and self-confidence levels, effectively reduce the negative perception of organizational crisis, awaken positive psychological energy within individuals, increase their sense of belonging to the organization and thus, increase employees' awareness of the positive challenges of organizational crisis, stimulate employees' career calling through positive and optimistic beneficial pressure drive them to lead the corresponding changes in the crisis. Finally, this study confirms that employees' own resilience can change the double-edged sword effect of organizational crisis. Employees with high resilience are more likely to see organizational crisis as challenge and are thus more likely to develop career calling and are more inclined to initiate change, while employees with low resilience are more likely to see organizational crisis as threat, are more negatively affected by them, develop greater job insecurity and are, thus, more inclined to commit unethical pro-organizational behaviors. This reflects the fact that organizations should constantly cultivate employees' resilience and enhance their cognitive toughness at the same time. For instance, the organization can regularly use promotional lectures and scenarios to help leaders and employees establish corporate ethics, strengthen moral beliefs and correctly understand the nature of unethical affinity behavior. Managers should encourage and advocate positive and correct behaviors such as overcoming difficulties, positive innovation and positive suggestions to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the organization.

Social implications

The results of this study can increase the organization’s understanding of the negative effects of crisis, help the organization take measures to manage and guide the employees in organizational crisis, more effective and targeted functional changes within the organization, reduce stress damage and improve the efficiency and effectiveness of crisis management. It is also beneficial to improve competitiveness and foresight in the organization’s industry and enhance organizations and employees’ resilience.

Originality/value

This study explores the double-edged sword effect of organizational crisis on employees’ behavior from the perspective of the cognitive appraisal theory of stress, which theoretically opens up a new research perspective, enriches the research in the fields of organizational crisis and taking charge, pro-organizational unethical behavior relationship and practically provides theoretical guidance for enterprises and managers on how to effectively respond to organizational crisis from the employees, which is of great practical significance.

Details

Journal of Organizational Change Management, vol. ahead-of-print no. ahead-of-print
Type: Research Article
ISSN: 0953-4814

Keywords

Abstract

Details

Technology vs. Government: The Irresistible Force Meets the Immovable Object
Type: Book
ISBN: 978-1-83867-951-4

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